Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

[Citizen Kane]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Aus v England - I'm still not 100% on where exactly Australia is at. They have been more impressive than England and should win relatively comfortably. However we are now in knockout football so things do change a bit. For England to win they need Wilkinson's "A" game, anything less they lose IMO. In fact they also need the bounce of the ball and 50/50 calls falling for them. As usual Aussie are suspect in the front row but there are not many scrums in modern rugby now and they have always managed to somehow get by in big games in the past in this area. On balance I expect England to keep it reasonably close early but Australia to pull away in the second half. NZ v France - NZ have a big game in them and could really put a team to the sword over the next few weeks if they manage to stay in each round. IMO opinion France are in a similar position to England in that they need things to go their way to win. Big difference is they don't have a Wilkinson so even with most things going their way I don't think they will get up. SA v Fiji - Interesting game to try and read. SA should canter it but therein lies the issue mentioned in previous posts, will they get up and coast on a lead. Conversly will they underestimate Fiji and find themselves in a closer game than they thought ? Even if they take things a little easy SA have the firepower to get things together at halftime and pull away in the second half. If Fiji get behind I can definitely see SA pouncing on mistakes and running in tries from deep (intercepts may be a feature). Arg v Scotland - Potentially the closest game. Argentina look a lot stronger but Scotland could keep it close if their forwards front up and they kick their goals. Where is the Argentina headspace ? If it's looking at the semifinals already they could be in serious trouble. Weekend Bets: 1pt Aus/Eng 1st stoppage lineout @ 1.70 1pt England +6.5 halftime @ 1.90 1pt NZ -15.5 @ 2.05 1pt Fiji 1st scorer @ 3.15 1pt Arg/Scot 1st stoppage lineout @ 1.70 1pt Scotland +6.5 halftime @ 1.90 GLA Cheers CK

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Slight divergence from my usual bets for the Eng-Aus game this afternoon. Stan James have Lote Tuqiri to score a try anytime @ 5/2 which is a standout price. Have been sizeing this one up for a few days with most firms going 6/4 or 13/8, so when this price came along I had to go for it. Tuqiri is a pretty prolific scorer (25 in 50) overall and has 3 from 6 starts against England. Amazingly he has not scored a single one of Australia's 30 tries in the WC to date, despite playing every minute of the pool games! I cannot believe that this will continue, and in a game where there will definitely be tries from Australia's backs (possibly even 5 or 6) I think this a value price. England don't seem to have the big guys out wide that they used to, so Tuqiri will take a bit of stopping. 4pts Tuqiri anytime tryscorer @ 5/2 (Stan James)

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

...in a game where there will definitely be tries from Australia's backs (possibly even 5 or 6) I think this a value price... 4pts Tuqiri anytime tryscorer @ 5/2 (Stan James)

:lol Haha well at least the one try of the game went the right way. Difficult for me to say this but well done England, good result for the Northern Hemisphere and a reminder that the scrum can win a game.

[SpurMan]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Glad this is the wrong score!

Last Updated: Saturday, 6 October 2007, 14:47 GMT 15:47 UK E-mail this to a friend Printable version Rugby World Cup Live BBC 5live commentary: England v Australia 7 Sept - 20 Oct, 2007 Rugby World Cup Blog | 606 Official World Cup website Eng-Aus report Eng-Aus text NZ v France Photos

Australia (10) 16 Try: Tuqiri Pen: Mortlock Con: Mortlock England (6) 12 Pens: Wilkinson (4) Jonny Wilkinson was the scourge of Australia again as his four penalties put England in the World Cup semi-final after a thrilling win in Marseille.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread England pack dominant throughout, and in the loose. Starved Australia of ball. Thought it might be close, but not that 'close'. Aussies simply walloped up front. :ok Plus Tuqiri bonus for Cymro :clap

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Ha! The might of the Southern Hemisphere. and the bulging of the bookies' satchels.

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Awesome day of rugby. I was so worried no northen hemisphere side would make it through but England gave the Aussies a lesson in scrummaging and keeping hold of the ball, and France somehow pulled a result out of their arse against the ABs. What they were thinking in the first half I don't know with all that kicking, but the yellow card and absence of Kelleher, Carter and Collins left the ABs with not much left to give - why did they not even try the drop goal? Backup players just not at the same level. France defended like heroes but I still can't believe they did it. Happy to lose the overs/unders bet by one score for the sake of France keeping the World Cup dream alive. Allez l'hémisphère du nord!:clap

[saintg1]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread First thoughts: France +13.5 & Fiji +33.5 look interesting (although need to assess how big a hole Nicky Little's injury has left). Am also interested in France straight-up at this early stage, but will take time to dwell on that. Still in shock after last night's and this morning's matches. At a time when most of us this side of the equator were anticipating, and predicting, two southern hemisphere semi finals, we get put in our place by those dastardly english and the enigmatic french. Hats off to them and four more years for us and our Kiwi cousens. Didn't bet on Aust-Eng and, whilst I thought long and hard about France, nly took them with the start. Much more interested, bet-wise, in tonight's games. South Africa v Fiji: clearly, South Africa is favoured and it is almost impossible to comprehend an upset. However, Fiji is now being offered 35.5 pts start which, imo, is worth consideration. I think this is a safe margin to work with as I expect Fiji to score at least 10-15 points, thereby necessitating South Africa to post 45-50. When was the last time a RWC 1/4 finalist was offering 15.00 for the win? In a two-horse race, I will also be putting a small stake on Fiji causing the greatest upset in RWC history. Will probably be a donation, but profitable results thus far have given some scope to 'gamble'. Argentina v Scotland: match previews are suggesting Scotland's much improved pack, coupled with the world's best kicker in Paterson, will keep this match close. Unless the Pumas play with an indiscipline not yet witnessed in their play in this tournament, I can't see Scotland getting within two tries of Argentina. Picking the right bet is challenging here - I expect Argentina to win by between 10 and 18 points. Interestingly, Sportsbet has Argentina to win by 30+ @ 3.60 as opposed to the exact margin of 10 points at 26.00 (the next lowest). My inclination, therefore, is to put small stakes on the exact margins of 10-18 and a bit on 1-12 @ 3.10, thereby giving me a reasonable chance of securing a profit - provided of course the Pumas win the day - as they should. Either way, should be two more very entertaining games. Wouldn't it be totally bizarre if only Sth Africa or Fiji was left to fly the southerners' flag come Monday?

[AJ]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Scotland haven't beaten Argentina in their last 5 attempts, including two defeats in Edinburgh. Argentina are at -13.5pts at 2.08 on Betfair I'm going to have to say Vamos Las Pumas here (even though I'm Scottish) and take this price because i think it screams value I've also taken Fiji on the handicap at +34.5 pts, at 1.9 on Betfair again. I don't see a big margin of victory, I expect the yarpies to do enough to qualify and ease off later on with fitness for a semi final a consideration

[stereoman]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread OT: A Betfair punter has wagered a massive $5 million on the All Blacks to win the Rugby World Cup, the UK-based betting exchange reports. The punter has banked on the All Blacks defying their “chokers” tag to take home the William Webb Ellis Cup. With the tournament nearing the quarter final stages, the All Blacks are the raging 1.71 favourites with Betfair, the world’s leading betting exchange. South Africa remains the punters’ second pick at 4.50 with Australia firming to outright third favouritism at 10.50. “This is an enormous bet. It’s certainly one of the biggest individual bets we’ve seen on Betfair and one that would normally have bookies running for cover,” said Betfair spokesman Hugh Taggart. “Events like this generate enormous interest amongst punters. The volume of bets we’ve seen placed so far shows that there’s no shortage of punters prepared to take each other on over the result.” http://www.onthepunt.com.au/sportsbetting_betfair.php I hope he's alright. :\ :puke

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread when another scrum was mashed, Wilkinson put England ahead at 6-3. Australia went into a huddle, and it was about the only thing that didn't collapse. funny - from The Independent --- Agree with concensus: SA not into playing festival rugby at this stage but they will likely marmalize Fiji in the scrum/line-out. Handicap close. Fiji +36 @ 10/11 at 22pts Argies solid, confident. Should win by 12 against Scotland. Therefore go Argies win by 1-12 @ 2-1 at 5pts Argies win by 11-15 @ 11/2 at 10pts

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Following on from previous posts I'm gonna go with medium stakes on Fiji to stay within 36pts. Main reason is that SA don't need to win by this much, but also that Fiji should be able to notch a couple of tries against the favourites seeing as USA and Tonga were able to do so. After yesterday's results the Boks will just want to secure a place in the semis, and they know the best way to beat Fiji is to keep it tight and squeeze the set piece rather than chucking it around. 5pts Fiji (+36) to beat South Africa @ 10/11 (Paddy Power)

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Well done to everyone on Fiji and pie-chucker on your Argentina bets - you won't want this tournament to end mate! :ok What a contrasting couple of games today, Fiji were literally inches from taking a try-scoring lead with 20 to go on two occasions, but the Bokke did just enough to close out. Massive credit to Fiji for the way they play their rugby. You have to think SA will prefer to play the structured rugby of Argentina. As for Scotland-Argentina, apparently they were trying to break the world record for the number of kicks in this game but the guy counting them fell asleep. The Hernandez-driven machine powers on but not for much longer surely? Scotland looked OK when Cusiter came on but until then were shocking. One of the worst games I have ever seen. Early prices for England-France give England as much as a 10 point headstart or 11/4 outright, might look to hedge a bit of my outright positionon this one as there is a bit of value there I would say. French pack won't take any crap from England though and no comparison out wide. Plenty of time to ponder this one.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=n3O9AafnjHI&mode=related&search=alternative%20rugby%20commentary%20jed%20jeremy%20jedi%20thian%20new%20zealand%20allblacks%20all%20blacks%20world%20cup%20france%20iveco%20series last w/e result only makes this funnier.

[ridle]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Cheers for Lamont - already settled as winner at Bet365 :cow And Habana and Petersen still with a decent chance-esp. Habana.

Current thoughts are: Overall - I can only really see the winner coming from one of the semi finalists which I expect to be NZ, SA, Aus and France. Brian Habana looks good value at 16/1 (Bet365) with an each way payout for finishing in the top 4 however his group is not as easy as NZ/Australia's. This guy could score against anyone though such is his pace and finishing quality. That's more than could be said for his countryman JP Pietersen, who is available at as much as 66/1. Despite the tempting price and the fact he might play against the weaker teams from watching him twice I can only assume JP stands for Joke Player, fast as hell but looks like he's never played before, I would like some reassurance that this is not a worthwhile bet! Looking at France and NZ you can see the tries being shared around and French players will also suffer from being in a tougher group. Hard to really pick out one player from these two especially as Rokocoko is now down to 5/1. For Australia I fancy Tuqiri to run in a few especially if he got a chance against Japan or Canada, and 40/1 looks tasty for a guy who will see a lot of the ball. Top NZ Tryscorer - I quite like the look of Carter here at 20/1 (skybet), will probably only miss 1 game I would imagine and would be a decent payout at 1/4 odds if he finished in top 3. Has scored 20 international tries in 41 games and has a knack of running them in on the big occasion (e.g. Lions tour 2005). For those of you looking to bet on Nick Evans he is available at an amazing 40/1 with Skybet for this market. Going to have 2pt E/W on that now in fact before it disappears. Top Scotland Tryscorer - Rory Lamont at 14/1 (bet365) could be the bet here, was one of the few Scots to do well against South Africa and could well get a runout against Romania and Portugal. Deserves to be in the starting lineup ahead of Southwell IMO. Top France Tryscorer - Hard to pick a winner with so many equally skilled players especially outwide, but Vincent Clerc at 9/1 (again skybet!) looks high for someone I would expect to be first choice. Top Ireland Tryscorer - O'Driscoll is 7/1 with effectively a one match handicap over the other players (missing Namibia game). It's true he could miss others but is likely to play every game he's fit for and should finish in the top 3. He's the same price as Brian Carney which is daft. Top England Tryscorer - Not much here, maybe someone like Tait who can be had at 20/1 and may get a few against the weaker group sides. Alternatively a forward who will fall over the line 3/4 times in one of those games, not much by way of odds for the backrowers though. Top SA Tryscorer - That man JP crops up again, 12/1 (skybet) for this market which is more than I was expecting. Think this one is a bit more sensible but am haunted by visions of him flailing around like Bambi on ice trying to catch a tryscoring pass. Top Aus Tryscorer - Matt Giteau looks a decent E/W bet at 8/1 (skybet/bet365) as he's likely to play nearly every game and could cause some carnage against the minnows. Top Wales Tryscorer - I like the look of Kevin Morgan here at 14/1, pretty much guaranteed to play every game and looked one of our better attacking threats vs France.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Broke even on Argies, won with England, Fiji and got clobbered by NZ/Frogs 1pt short of total pts. And NZ not covering (let alone bloody winning). Suppose, considering fantastic upsets, got out of jail. To date +126 13 from 19 on handicap

[saintg1]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Most of us seem to be having a pretty good tournament bet-wise (especially Pie-c, cymro, 2hcb and Gerrie). Hopefully, we can finish the RWC profitably to make up for such an insipid Wallabies performance. Opening markets down here for the SF's: England 3.30 (and 1.88 +8.5) v France 1.34 (& 1.93 -8.5) Sth Africa 1.30 (1.90 -9.5) v Argentina 3.55 (1.90 +9.5) First thoughts: France to cover and Argentina to surprise (maybe wishful thinking but their play has been inspiring). Look fwd to your thoughts and will post again with more thoughts later.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

My firm recommendation is to get a bit on England now. 31/1 on the exchanges yesterday, 29/1 today. I reckon you'll get a good run for your money with good chances to lay later for profit. :ok

This pre-tournament, but it was a pretty dud suggestion in some ways as Labrokes were offering 80-1 after the SA tonking. Think England will go very close in Paris. If Johnny gets his radar right they could win. Very frightened of frog backs, but then was of the Aussie 9 to 15. Argies will (continue) to have something to say for themselves as well. Again close. I'm slightly with both underdogs on the handicap at the moment.

[2hcb]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread initial thoughts are that I can't call either cap, or even winner at this stage. England could keep it tight and win it by kicks or France could score early, open it up and cover easily. Arg and SA are evenly matched upfront, Arg might even edge it but the game could be turned by something like a Habana interception. 50/50 calls for me. Maybe just leave it, sit back and enjoy the action.

[alkoholenmaniak]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread France-England

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread :welcome to the thread Alkoholenmaniak! Better late than never! ;) Great write-up on Saturday's game, but just one thing I would comment on...

France have looked far more structured in their Forwards and backs and their tactical kicking has been great

I can't agree about the kicking, it may have worked in hindsight as a containing ploy against NZ (but you could argue the ABs didn't take advantage of the poor kicks) but I don't think it suits France all that much and is not a game-winning tactic. Traille at fullback is not something I am very comfortable with either. I know WC semis aren't about running the tries in but I think France need to get a platform and get the backs moving to beat England, anything else and they are playing into their hands. Beauxis as a kicker I am a bit nervous about also. Can't call either of the weekend's games, really scared that England could win (for any number of reasons, not least the fact I'm going to the final with an English mate!) and can definitely see it happening so will probably just end up on them to cover my France bet.

[Jumbo]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread

France vs England Now time for the Northern Hemisphere Final between France and England. Both these sides had massive upsets last week,by far Frances win over NZ the bigger of the two upsets and well derserved,forget the forward pass or hands in the ruck by the French,they throughly deserved their win and it's great to see the Host Nation still in the cup,England to played well and niggled their way to victory just like I had thought they would,the Aussies always seem to struggle against England,maybe it's because they are all Britans criminals ancestors and they still like giving the mother land the finger and it affects them,who knows,But it works great for England in Union matches. Anyway both these sides although both winning against the odds last weekend are both in danger of massive let downs this week unless they are mentaly prepared well,i'm going to side with France,not because they beat the All Blacks,but because they are at home and playing at a Stadium that they are almost unbeatable at..Stade De France. England may of cost the French the 6 Nations but that was a liftime ago now and the form of both these sides is vastly different now from then,France this WC after losing thier opener to Argentina have improved with each match and at home will be a force to be reckoned with today.France have looked far more structured in their Forwards and backs and their tactical kicking has been great,this match will be close and a hard fought affair no matter who the winner will be. England also have played far better than their opening two matches and like France have had a tough road to even get to here and should be applauded for thier efforts,they came through a very hard group and have been playing knock out matches now in their last 3 games and have performed admirabily,their forwards have improved markedly and their backs although not involved to much are looking for work which is the sign of a confident side,once again Wilkenson is the key,I rate him very highly but he will have to have an absouloute blinder today to get his side through. These sides have a long history with Engalnd holding the advantage winning 47 of 89 matches played with 7 draws and France winning the other 35 matches,however recent history is far from great reading for the English and their wins have become further and further apart now for a number of years,heres ther most recent 6 results..07..22-9..France win....07..15-21..France win...07..26-18 England win that cost France the 6 Nations this year....06..31-6..France win.....05..17-18..France win and in 04 once again it was France 24-21. This match like the other Semi will be close and the start on England is worth taking if you want to as I don't think the winner will win by more than 5 points,both sides played very well last week and both will be a tad bit cautous here I think,neither side will want to give away any cheap points and Wilkensons drop goals could prove the difference in what I would view as a tight and intense match,but as France are at home and playing in front of their home crowd who will be very up beat for the French after last weeks heroics,I'm going to give this match to France in a thriller that will go down right to the wire with the French wrapping it up with less than 5 to go with a penalty Kick or Drop Goal,regardless it should be a great game,Good Luck to both sides and take England with the start or look for some value with France by 12 points or less. Pick : France By 12 points or less Odds : 2.75 Stake : 8 / 10 Bookmaker : SportingBet

You DIRTY BASTARD,Ripping off my tip from Betshoot. How dare you you cheeky ******.:moon

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread "but because they are at home and playing at a Stadium that they are almost unbeatable at..Stade De France." Not sure about this, Alko, but haven't crunched the stats. Can remember back to the Argie game though! Parc des Princes was an intimitading cauldron, this is a more a big neutral stadium. Probably 40,000 English there as well. France seem tougher to beat in Marseilles rather than the capital. Don't think there is much ground advantage here.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Hey Jumbo, couldn't find your original thread on Betshoot, but believe you of course and agree:a bit bloody off to rip-off and cut and paste here! But I did see you describe the posters here as going in for the 'I'm the greatest' shite. Rubbish! There's reasonable modesty here despite logged tipping accuracy that would knock other forums full of after-eventing 'told you so' merchants (who never did) into a cocked hat.

[Jumbo]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread You could'nt find my thread on Betshoot? Oh it's there,if you read the "I've been cloned as well"Thread i'm amased you missed it. Pie Chucker,I keep it real,what any of us do is nothing special,I did'nt like it here because people who gave bad tips never said sorry,while any time some one got one correct they are all over this site saying how great they are,thats my own opinion though and I don't mean any of you any offence although i'm sure it will come off as that way. If you read the thread well I also said that you guys are alright,what can I say,I have a problem with Tipsters who say nothing when they are wrong but like to gloat when they are correct. Thats my own buzz though and in alot of ways your correct,my opinions on that matter should be kept to myself,but what can I say,I always check out what you guys are up to on here once i've made my choices,as I rate you fellas,I was angry at someone whos ripping off my tips and posting them elsewhere..I'll delete that post and you are correct I was out of line and apoligise to all on here,but i'm sure that you would understand my anger if it was your tips being posted and claimed by other ******s. Not any of you guys who post regualy on this thread which I might add has been entertaining to say the least with some excellent tips and I was'nt so much talking about this thread imparticular but just threads on here that i've been a part of,but I know it's come off that way,so sorry. Anyways Good Luck for the Semis. Go France and Argentina.

[Jumbo]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread The post is amended and I once again apoligise for my words in Anger that were false. But I would also like you guys to give that guy what for ,as far as pasting others tips on this site and claiming them as his own is Rubbish.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Jumbo, no worries mate. a) "I got clobbered by the NZ/Frogs total points bet" b) " [Get on England] ....It was a pretty dud suggestion" That's just me, on this page alone. Of course we admit it when we are a) one point wrong and b) when it's a big winning suggestion - as is - but not that famous as you could have got better later on. You won't get this straight-forward stuff on any other WC thread, and not this level of tipping. I'm 14 out of 20 on spreads, which is a fair hit rate. (Adjusted from 13 from 19 as last posted as I've done a countback) It's all here in bold, over the past 5 weeks.:)

[Cymro]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Jumbo, hope you continue to post on here as your views are always well-thought out and appreciated. Thought it was a bit strange that our resident Bulgarian could provide such an insightful analysis of Saturday's game. What a pathetic thing to do. Following on from previous posts I've decided to bet on England to get through to the final to cover off my original bet. Don't want to stake any more than that as I still think France are in with a good chance of the Trophy. 5pts England to Qualify (for final) @ 5/2 (Stan James)

[Jumbo]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread Thanks for letting it go Lads. Respect!!

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Rugby World Cup 2007 - Official Thread