Guest highlander Posted February 16, 2004 Share Posted February 16, 2004 lets face it, we'll all know friendlies are sh1te to predict, but we'll all be puttng a few quid on them. Here's my view of the matches i'll be betting on (odds WH): Turkey v Denmark (home 2.1) ( draw 3.2) (away 3) Belgium v France (4) (3) (1.83) Holland v USA (1.33) (4) (8) N.Ireland v Norway (4) (3.1) (1.8) Spain v Peru (1.25) (4.5) (10) Portugal v England (2.1) (3) (3.2) Turkey v Denmark Turkey will be keen to win after the disappointment of not qualifying for Euro 2004. Denmark are a good team, but may make a lot of changes at half-time as they try out players for Portugal. Prediction: Home win (cover on the ht/ft x-x) Begium v France France are firm favourites here, and will have a decent support from their own fans. Will check team line ups on the day to see if Henry etc are starting. Prediction: Away win (cover on the ht/ft x-x) Holland v USA Although USA did well in the WC in Japan, Holland will fancy their chances of winning this match. Think that they are a couple of steps ahead of the American., especially with RVN and Berkhamp playing well. Prediction: home win (cover with the 0-0) N.Ireland v Norway Ireland managed to go the whole of Euro 2004 qualifaction without scoring a goal. To remedy this they appointed the manager of Wycombe?? Norway will want to make up for the disappointment of not featuring in Euro 2004. Prediction :Away win (cover on the draw) Spain v Peru The notorious coupon buster!! Who will be brave enough to back Spain this time round?? Peru, went there a couple of years ago (Machu Picchu was great but got the sh!tes at Lake Titicaca). Know nothing of the football team, but don't expect them to get anything out of this game. Prediction: home win (cover with the 0-0) Portugal v England Fancy England to start well here and to hold their own up to half-time (especially with their strongest line up playing the first 45 mins). Betting on England win, HT/FT draw-draw, ht/ft draw- portugal win, returns 1.4 (=2/5). Benefit of this bet is that if it is a draw at half-time then the bet is a winner. (swap ht/ft draw-draw for a straight draw and still the odds are 1.2 (=1/5) Prediction: England to play well, a both sides to settle for a draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirkscot Posted February 16, 2004 Share Posted February 16, 2004 midweek international friendlies 2 Romania 8 4 2 2 21 9 +12 14 58.3 3 Norway 8 4 2 2 9 5 +4 14 58.3 In last qualifying group Norway scored 9 goals in 8 games, so stick by feeling that they dont score a lot of goals. All relative tho! edit, 2003 friendlies: Norway 7 2 2 3 5 5 0 8 38.1 5 goals in 7 games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted February 17, 2004 Share Posted February 17, 2004 The North won't score great value is Norway to keep clean sheet at EVS with PP against a team who havent scored in modern times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirkscot Posted February 17, 2004 Share Posted February 17, 2004 Re: midweek international friendlies very important to be especially selective with non-competitive matches, and it is too easy to select matches on an ill-informed basis. Personnally, I have a feeling that draws in this kind of match could be productive, but... Anyway, couple of quick points on a couple of matches mentioned so far: Turkey. Turkey have a poor record in friendly matches, even at home. Some stats here: all friendlies (since 1872) P-W-D-L-GF-GA-GDIF-PTS-% Turkey 199 68 56 75 249 302 -53 260 43.6 Denmark 444 208 81 155 865 655 +210 705 52.9 2003 Turkey 4 1 2 1 4 6 -2 5 41.7 Denmark 4 3 1 0 9 4 +5 10 83.3 2002 Turkey 6 2 2 2 6 4 +2 8 44.4 Denmark 7 6 0 1 11 6 +5 18 85.7 Conclusion: Turkey not automatic favourites Northern Ireland Sanchez may not have a great managerial record, or a distinguished international career, even I was surprised to be reminded that he DID actually play a couple of times for NI although I am old enough that I should remember. But, I would suggest that this is just the sort of info that is irrelevant, would NI be better if Jimmy Nic had got the job? Anyway, going to stop there on this one as getting a bit sidetracked. What I wanted to point out was NI's actual record: Team P W D L GF GA GDIF PTS % 1 Greece 8 6 0 2 8 4 +4 18 75.0 2 Spain 8 5 2 1 16 4 +12 17 70.8 3 Ukraine 8 2 4 2 11 10 +1 10 41.7 4 Armenia 8 2 1 5 7 16 -9 7 29.2 5 NI 8 0 3 5 0 8 -8 3 12.5 Much has been made about their lack of goals, however for me the important thing is goal diff and goals conceded. They may not have a good reputation, however against a team like Norway who (unsupported here) dont score a lot of goals (TA Flo fur fcuks sake!) for a team who finished last in group they have a brilliant record compared to other bottom teams. Even Armenia in this group conceded twice as many goals. This is why the 0-0 against Spain should not have bust as many coupons as it did; punters were just ill-informed conclusion: game ripe for an upset, 1X very likely. Useful site here if anyone interested www.rdasilva.demon.co.uk/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted February 17, 2004 Share Posted February 17, 2004 midweek international friendlies Ireland might be worth a small punt depending on the teams. didnt they beat Brazil a while back ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Run Dmc Vs Pat Nevin Posted February 17, 2004 Share Posted February 17, 2004 Friendlies Wouldn't touch the 1X2 markets with a bargepole for international friendlies, but I can't resist a punt on UNDER 2.5 goals for the N. Ireland v Norway game. Anything approaching 1.80 is value IMO. Gonna do a bit of research on the recent form of these two sides first. Be back later DMC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Run Dmc Vs Pat Nevin Posted February 17, 2004 Share Posted February 17, 2004 N. Ireland V Norway Here we go then. 11th Oct 03 Greece 1-0 N. Ireland 10th Sept 03 N. Ireland 0-1 Armenia 06th Sept 03 Ukraine 0-0 N. Ireland 11th June 03 N. Ireland 0-0 Spain 3rd June 03 Italy 2-0 N. Ireland Four goals in the last five games. Even my poor maths tells me that's less than a goal a game. The last time an N. Ireland game went OVER 2.5 goals was on the 12th of October 2002 when they lost 3-0 in Spain. In contrast, Norway's last five games have all gone OVER, but these have included friendlies with Singapore and Honduras, so I wouldn't read too much into that. DMC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Cash Handler Posted February 17, 2004 Share Posted February 17, 2004 N.Ireland I would be very surprised if there were loads of goals in this game. Was looking at the history of this fixture. Norway beat them 4-0 back in 2001. I think this game is more unpredictable than the odds suggest, which are heavily weighted toward's Norway! 'New manager syndrome' might take affect here. But then again who the hell knows. Two very poor sides playing one another. I would like to see N.Ireland's price on the Asian Handicap list. My advice would be to stay well clear of International friendlies. They can be very difficult to predict. There will probably be many draws on Wednesday. Best of luck to you all. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Djoca Posted February 17, 2004 Share Posted February 17, 2004 What about Poland against Slovenia? It looks like good value for home win here. Poland certainly have better players then Slovenia. Most of them are in the German Bundes liga so they are in the solid form after couple of weeks of playing after break. Also, they had great results against Italy and Serbia in their last friendlies so I guess that 2.40 is great value at Expekt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted February 17, 2004 Share Posted February 17, 2004 Italy v Cze Rep Know nothing about Italian squad bar the fact they just accept this match as a necessary nuisance. Czech are unbeaten in 19, BUT Cech the goalie is out injured and the back duo will be rested as two new faces (ex-u21 sqad) are given the nod. Would need more info to back Italy with any confidence (also a "friendly" draw may be on cards in this one). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest azton Posted February 17, 2004 Share Posted February 17, 2004 Careful with Turkey I would be not bet against Denmark in Turkey. Denmark will start with a strong side: This is the starting line up: Thomas Sørensen - Thomas Helveg, Martin Laursen, René Henriksen, Niclas Jensen - Daniel Jensen, Thomas Gravesen, Claus Jensen - Jesper Grønkjær, Martin Jørgensen, Jon Dahl Tomasson Udinese defender Per Krøldrup will probably get his debut in the 2nd half. Thank God for that. Krøldrup is better than both Laursen and Henriksen!! Turkey on the other hand have left out a lot of the old players who couldnt beat Latvia in the Euro playoffs. The Turkish squad: Ibrahim Üzülmez (Besiktas) Ümit Özat, Tuncay Sanli, Selçuk Sahin,Volkan Demirel (Fenerbahçe) Gökdeniz Karadeniz, Fatih Tekke, Tolga Seyhan (Trabzonspor) Cagdas Atan (Denizlispor) Orhan Ak (Galatasaray) Ömer Catkic, Ibrahim Toraman (Gaziantepspor) Murat Hacioglu (Diyarbakirspor) Deniz Baris, Serkan Balci (Gençlerbirligi), Zafer Biryol (Konyaspor) Faruk Bayar (Istanbulspor) Koray Avci (Caykur Rizespor) Okan Yilmaz (Bursaspor) Ugur Inceman (Vestel Manisaspor) Rüstü Reçber (FC Barcelona) Emre Belözoglu (Inter) Nihat Kahveci (Real Sociedad) Fatih Sonkaya (Roda JC) Hamit Altintop (Schalke 04). So it will be an inexperienced Turkish side against an experienced Danish team that beat England away in their last game. Skybet deserves to get punished for their 3,75 on Denmark. Danish bookmaker Bet24.com has 2,35 fo a Turkey win if anybody is still interested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JACKLESTER Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 Ireland-brazil Just read on sky sports that Duff is out. Brazil are missing Juninho pembumcao, but have took a strong squad with Ronaldo.Ronaldinho, Adriano etc... Will be taking Brazil to win this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest qxsad Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 irl v brazil Yep i think Brazil have a full squad in this one but this is like an exhibition game for the Irish.They will play their hearts out against Brazil in front of a home crowd,tricky one but i will not be betting on it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 Wales Vs Scotland While I would normally never bet on international friendly matches for reasons that don't need explained, I do think that even money for Wales at home to Scotland is worthy of consideration. Berti is taking a very young team to Cardiff, and will experiment with several new caps. His record in friendly matches is awful. Wales are by no means at full strength, but they are stronger than Scotland, and at home at even money, I'm tempted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETT1NLOTS Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 Portugal Vs England England with none of their top 3 central defenders (Campbell, Ferdinand and Terry) + our terrible recent record in friendlies makes me think Portugal are MASSIVE at just over evens. I hardly bet on International football and avoid friendlies all together but I think this looks too juicy a price to pass up. Anyone know anything about the Portugal side + attitude towards these kinds of games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest highlander Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 midweek international friendlies i am also more tempted by wales than turkey. it seems that turkey have problems with friendlies, and are also fielding a weakened team. wales are also fielding a weakened team against scotland, but agree with other people's statements that they are better than scotland (who are also weakened). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slick Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 Re: midweek international friendlies I dont normally bet on friendlies but have to agree with Get1n. England will be playing with a makeshift team as is the norm now with sven and then there will be wholesale changes come half time. Portigal from what i rememer normally play a decent side in friendlies and have a good home recent record against England plus the fact they havent played any competitive Internationals due to hosting the championships means they need these matches to find their Euro squad a lot more than we do. Home win seems highly likely here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest toshibakid Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 hmm Without Gerrard to protect the back 4 we are doomed. 3-0 to portugal.:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest da len man Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 Re: IRL v BRAZIL My heart says Ireland but my head says Brazil. While there is no doubt that Ireland will run themselves into the ground with the occasion that's in it, I feel brazil will also want to put on a show for the Landsdowne faithful, many of whom are just turning up to see the samba boys in action. :notworthy Their class will eventually tell - Breeny vs Ronaldo, Hartey vs Ronaldinho....:cry and no duff either:rolleyes I like Brazil (-1 goal) @ 9/4, and may also have a nibble on ronaldo to outscore robbie keane @ 2/1, nothing major. (Odds from PP) The last time Ireland played Brazil in '87 we won 1-0 with chippy brady bagging the winner but the previous time they beat us 7-0!:o 7-1 on aggregate, let the games begin! Just saw breen isn't in the squad! :ok .......andy o'brien is instead :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 Re: IRL v BRAZIL I see a lot of people are going for under 2,5 goals in N.Ireland vs Norway. I think not.. Most of stats for Norway the last 4-5 years are worthless now as we have a new manager, formerly of Rosenborg, who likes to attack and, unlike former manager, doesn't really care if we let one or two in as long as we win the match. He has picked a very attacking side vs. N.Ireland. He has been in charge of three matches (played on neutral ground) and they have all ended with wins, and lots of goals: 3-0 vs Sweden, 3-1 vs Honduras, 5-2 vs Singapore. I think there could be a lot of goals tonight as well. Betfair have 2.34 for over 2,5 goals (not excluding commission) and I'll be having a BIG slice of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurdjieff Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 Corners Given the amount of stoppages for excessive subbing,the generally less than all out commitment and often walking pace of some of these games a low corner count is usually the case.Ill be going for the under 10 corners for the England match.Haviing said this 11 by half time is assured! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 midweek international friendlies da la man imo i think 20/1 for ronaldo to score hat-trick got tobe worth couple of pts i agree with your selctions also might even brazil -2 goals 13/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daglashen Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 Greece-Bulgaria Greece remains undefeated in the last 13 matches, after the win over Armenia on October 16th 2002! King Otto, as coach Rehagel is called, has managed to build a team that is not afraid of any opponent. Despite the fact that everybody considered Spain and Ukraine to qualify from their Group to EURO 2004 in Portugal, Greece created the major upset and took the 1st place. What was the secret of Rehagel? Strong defense and patience in seeking the winning goal. Take a look at the results and you will see many scores like 1-0, 0-0, 2-0. For today’s match, Greece will miss some regular players: Nikopolidis (gk), Karagounis (mid) and Giannakopoulos (mid). Striker Papadopoulos (Panathinaikos) is the new person in the starting line-up and he appears to be in great form. Bulgaria has also qualified for EURO 2004. They will also miss a couple of regular players and coach Markov will be able to test many different plans. The match will be played in Leoforos (home ground of Panathinaikos). However it is doubtful whether it will be full of spectators tonight. I would say that 1(X) is the most probable result, yet taking into consideration the previous results and the fact that this is a friendly match, I will take the UNDER 2.5 goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 Re: Corners Morocco vs Switzerland - away win or go Asian on Switzerland. Marocco nearly refusing to show up for the match, will probably send only Morocco-based players. Switzerland unhappy with the whole thing after Morocco behaves strangely, probably eager to win against what will probably be a severly reduced Morocco. Removed from some bookmakers. I played the Asian (refund if draw) with Ladbrokes 1,70, can probably get more elsehwere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 midweek international friendlies I believe the over 2.5 market on Betfair is priced way too high by now due to the hype about this being the game which could see the North break the international record for longest run without scoring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted February 18, 2004 Share Posted February 18, 2004 midweek international friendlies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirkscot Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 final picks pulled a lot of data on portugal/england but lost it all when made a James Hunt of quick reply option, so just quick note evening picks for me are Croatia and Portgal not to lose double. Portugal 2003 friendly record think from memory is 7-3-2, not too shabby, will suffer a little due to no competative matches but seem to be holding up pretty well. Figo may have to face a late fitness test but will win 100th cap if plays. Beckham might just turn this game on its head though, has happened before. England too inconsistent for me and suffer from too many personnel changes, will miss important players thru injury/ban IMO. Croatia based purely on record. Never beaten at home in a qualifying match EVER, could only find 1 friendly loss (0-2 France in 2000), actually I never looked beyond this gluck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jedd25 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Turkey v Denmark OVER 2.5 Haven't even looked yet for any prices, but as far as I see this game there should be plenty of goals..We can't defend properly, but we sure as hell knows how to attack and with the great offensive players we've got I should be surprised if we didn't score a couple...the announced Danish starting formation has been showed by another member and will see Ebbe Sand on the bench with in form Bochum player Peter Madsen ( M.W. against Bayern M) 9 goals this season..both will be eager to show that they deserve a place in the starting 11. I don't know much about our Turkish oppenent but they will probably be attackminded too and many new faces will try and proove that they deserve a place in the squad for WC2006 qualifier, of course that could also mean less fluent play so a small cover on the result 1-1 is in order..:drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Robbie Winner Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 COME ON YOU SHEEP One pick for me and that's Wales to beat Scotland, Wales are stronger on paper and the midfield of Ryan Giggs, Robbie Savage, Gary Speed and Simon Davies is enough to make my mind up. What do you reckon lads? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest qxsad Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Crazy prices at betfair Irish TW I took the over 2.5 in the norway/NI game a few hours ago at 2.42 as i thought there is no way it would get any higher.It is now 2.56!!!!! That is crazy unless the goals have shrank. also Brazil are now 1.97 which is massive,I know i said I would not be betting as Ireland will play their hearts out but man that is a huge price!! I have to take it and might lump a bit more on the Nor?NI over 2.5. It is all about value!:cheers (every time i say that I lose :unsure ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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