Courses question

[Dices]

Mowgli77 wrote at 'Ratings and Queries - Suggestions please' : " I also think it is important to take Lingfield, Southwell, Kempton and Wolverhampton as totally different form. There are horses that are Lingfield specialists as an example but can't win on another all weather track. This will be important in July at the race day." The idea is that the form from lets lay Lingfield is not valid at Kempton because they have differrent characteristics. Many of you know very well the different courses, so supposing they have the same going how can we "group" the differrent courses and count the form from these courses as valid for the next race at similar course? Uphill, downhills ..... what are the factors that make differrent courses "similar" ? Any possible list of these similar courses according to own oppinion?

[RussP]

[Dices]

Re: Courses question Thanks RussP, that was quick!!! I think its great. Does anyone has to add any other idea?

[mowgli77]

Re: Courses question

Mowgli77 wrote at 'Ratings and Queries - Suggestions please' : " I also think it is important to take Lingfield, Southwell, Kempton and Wolverhampton as totally different form. There are horses that are Lingfield specialists as an example but can't win on another all weather track. This will be important in July at the race day." The idea is that the form from lets lay Lingfield is not valid at Kempton because they have differrent characteristics. Many of you know very well the different courses, so supposing they have the same going how can we "group" the differrent courses and count the form from these courses as valid for the next race at similar course? Uphill, downhills ..... what are the factors that make differrent courses "similar" ? Any possible list of these similar courses according to own oppinion?

You will often get comments in Racing Post such as "Has won 6 times on the all weather" suggesting it could win again but you need to explore this further. When you look at turf ratings you say "won on turf, good to firm, 6f etc" whereas the AW surface might be classed as "Standard" but the courses are so much different. Is the list RussP has posted any use to you? I've seen many horses start as favourite as they have aw form but are unproven at that track (such as His Masters Voice on Wednesday night). I put this as my NAP believing it could win at Kempton although best form was at Lingfield and it failed miserably. That's just one example. :ok

[Dices]

Re: Courses question For the time i'm stunding form, so any imformation will be examined in time, thanks for your help. Grouping the AW going - courses accoprding to the specific type of going - i saw something like SD somewhere ?- is a very good idea. As long you dont separate the types TOO much to have large samples, lets say like i'm doing at turf and count the firm very similar to good to firm , or even good , to gain larger sample. Where can i find more specific information as mentioned? Thanks.

[RussP]

Re: Courses question Have to agree fully with Mowgli:ok In short, I would say: On Turf - distance and going is important, as well as class of race. Consider track form but it is not as crucial as on the A/W. On A/W - as well as the comments that apply to turf, specific course form is important (ie, just because a horse wins at Lingfield, it doesn't mean it will act at Southwell) Obviously, there is much more to it that this but it provides a useful starting point. Good luck Dices, hope this helps:ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Courses question

For the time i'm stunding form, so any imformation will be examined in time, thanks for your help. Grouping the AW going - courses accoprding to the specific type of going - i saw something like SD somewhere ?- is a very good idea. As long you dont separate the types TOO much to have large samples, lets say like i'm doing at turf and count the firm very similar to good to firm , or even good , to gain larger sample. Where can i find more specific information as mentioned? Thanks.

Start with a race with a small field of runners and dissect the race horse by horse. Look at if the horse has won over the distance, on the going, in the class, etc for each horse. You might whittle a field of 10 down to 2 that you fancy. If you think that both horses have an equal chance of winning and one is 2-1 and the other is 10-1 which one are you backing??? Always look for value. :ok Use the Racing Post site for most info and its free. :)

[BillyHills]

Re: Courses question My thoughts; There are three main things to consider for starters, if you think logically about this for a minute, a trainer and the owner or in some cases the trainer will have a 'race planner' sit down and map out a schedule for each horse by looking through the future race diary. They will look for a suitable race over a certain distance first, if their horse finished well over say 5f last time they may look at all the upcoming 6f races, then they will determine whether the tracks those races are going to be held will be suitable, some may like flat tracks some may like straight tracks and dont go round bends as well etc.. At this stage as long as they qualify on BHB ratings they may enter the horse to run, in fact they may enter the horse in 2 or 3 other similar races at the same time and then decide on which one to run in closer to the date of the race. Ultimately and most importantly the final decision 9 times out of 10 on whether to run or not will depend on the going, i say 9/10 because its been known that trainers will run horses on unsuitable ground so the horse gets beaten and the handicap mark drops for another day. Some times they will withdraw the horse if the quality of the opposition is too strong but usually this is not the case as youd be forever checking up on whats going to run and whats not. Phil Bull, founder of Timeform, probrably the best and most reliable form guide, once said that the 'going' was the one most important ingredient that a horse must have to reproduce their form. He's right when you think about it, if a horse ran its best ever race on firm ground it stands to reason it probrably wont run like that next time if the ground is soft, doesnt matter about the course being slightly different or the distance being an extra furlong or the horse carrying 3lbs extra, it can get away with all those, it wont get away with running on unsuitable going. AW tracks are a different ball game and i'll come back to those later. BH

[BillyHills]

Re: Courses question AW tracks and the different surfaces can be a bit confusing but its not as bad as it used to be, Lingfield used to use Equitrack for the surface but found it wasnt very consistant so changed it to Polytrack. Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton all use Polytrack as will Great Leighs if ever it gets finished. This surface is like running on Gd/Firm ground, the Ploytrack produces less of a kick back and suits horses that can run at a good fast even pace, because of the fast pace they need to get the distance well too. The only difference in the tracks is how sharp the bends are and obviously that Kemton is RH where all the other three are LH. Southwell is the slowest surface by far and replicates races run on soft ground, quite deep and produces a lot of kick back and horses run wide to avoid this, the surface is Fibresand and needs a lot of maintenance and has been known to freeze. Lingfield and Kempton seem to attract the best horses with many newmarket trainers now running horses for experience before going onto better things, form can be relied on more when switching to turf but be careful of the handicappers, they can appear to be well handicapped but dont always live up to it. Southwell and Wolverhampton are best known for banded type races and typically moderate animals that are not seen so much on the turf and if they are its usually in sellers or claimers, personally dont bet at either of these, a bit like giant greyhound racing in my book but i know some that like them because the same horses run often and they get to know the form, each to their own.

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Courses question I used to study the stats when Lingfield AW first started. In 5 and 6 furlong races it was rare for a horse from stall 1 to win. I believe this has changed now. As for the draw elsewhere... I heard this morning that the BHB have instructed courses like Beverley, with a big draw advantage, to water part of the course to give the other end of the stalls a much better chance. May as well wait until that's all over and sorted before studying the draw bias anywhere.

[Dices]

Re: Courses question

AW tracks and the different surfaces can be a bit confusing but its not as bad as it used to be, Lingfield used to use Equitrack for the surface but found it wasnt very consistant so changed it to Polytrack. Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton all use Polytrack as will Great Leighs if ever it gets finished. This surface is like running on Gd/Firm ground, the Ploytrack produces less of a kick back and suits horses that can run at a good fast even pace, because of the fast pace they need to get the distance well too. The only difference in the tracks is how sharp the bends are and obviously that Kemton is RH where all the other three are LH. Southwell is the slowest surface by far and replicates races run on soft ground, quite deep and produces a lot of kick back and horses run wide to avoid this, the surface is Fibresand and needs a lot of maintenance and has been known to freeze. Lingfield and Kempton seem to attract the best horses with many newmarket trainers now running horses for experience before going onto better things, form can be relied on more when switching to turf but be careful of the handicappers, they can appear to be well handicapped but dont always live up to it. Southwell and Wolverhampton are best known for banded type races and typically moderate animals that are not seen so much on the turf and if they are its usually in sellers or claimers, personally dont bet at either of these, a bit like giant greyhound racing in my book but i know some that like them because the same horses run often and they get to know the form, each to their own.

As i see, I'm lacking a lot of information. Can form from Polytrack be counted as like G/F going? Can form from Fibersand be counted as like Soft going? Is there any track with Equitrack , can be counted as ??? Any other types of AW going? As mentioed "The only difference in the tracks is how sharp the bends are and obviously that Kemton is RH where all the other three are LH" , what is RH , LH ? Does anyone of you has been splited the previus form to flat,straights tracks,uphills etc like BillyHills mentions somewhere and this form to be counted to make the daily selections? I understand that nothing is certain but what is the feeling, the look of this approach, can someone say "i have the feelling that this will be good?" Thanks everyone for your help.

[BillyHills]

Re: Courses question Dices, you cant just say Ploytrack is like G/Firm or Fibresand is like Soft in all instances, what it is saying is that horses that usually run well on a firm surface are more likely to act at Kempton, Lingfield or Wolverhampton rather than Southwell. Equitrack isnt used anywhere in the UK anymore. RH means Right Handed, horses go clockwise LH means Left Handed, the other way obviously. The only real indicator in the racecard without looking in more deatail at the form of a horse is the symbols after the horses name. C : course winner D : distance winner CD : course and distance winner. Hope that helps slightly. BH

[RussP]

Re: Courses question Graham, Some quality posts there but this has to be the highlight......

Southwell and Wolverhampton are best known for banded type races and typically moderate animals that are not seen so much on the turf and if they are its usually in sellers or claimers' date=' personally dont bet at either of these, a bit like giant greyhound racing in my book but i know some that like them because the same horses run often and they get to know the form, each to their own.

:rollin

[mileni4uk]

Re: Courses question I can see Graham starting an AW System pretty soon ;)

[Dices]

Re: Courses question

C : course winner D : distance winner CD : course and distance winner. Hope that helps slightly. BH

It helps a lot. Thanks

[BillyHills]

Re: Courses question

I can see Graham starting an AW System pretty soon ;)

Dont think so Milen, I hate AW racing, if you ever see me tip a horse on the AW you could come to the conclusion that I fancy it.;)

[Cookie2001]

Re: Courses question Hiya, There are differences in pace profiles between the aw tracks and particularly in the closing speeds in the final quarter of the race. By tracking the horses with the fastest finishing kick, you can make a nice sum. Each of the all-weather tracks have a different length of finishing straights but the shortest of these on the AW is Lingfield at just over 2 and quarter furlongs. The shape of the track lends itself to a holdup strategy then the stacking up on the final bend followed by a finishing sprint for the line. A typical final furlong sectional time for a winner at Lingfield is about 11.8s which is considerably quicker than the 12.4s average equivalent sectional time for Kempton. Thats about 3 lengths difference. By studying the finishing speeds at Lingfield, one can pretty much work out what will be up there at the death. This is particularly useful for in-running betting because if you know what horses have the finishing sprint pace and he has a good field position approaching the straight, then that's your in-running winner. The only place to get these finishing sectional times is on www.turftrax.com and they've got a useful raceviewer application that lets you watch the all-weather races live. Hope this makes you money, it has for me!!!

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Courses question

Start with a race with a small field of runners and dissect the race horse by horse. Look at if the horse has won over the distance, on the going, in the class, etc for each horse. You might whittle a field of 10 down to 2 that you fancy. If you think that both horses have an equal chance of winning and one is 2-1 and the other is 10-1 which one are you backing??? Always look for value. :ok Use the Racing Post site for most info and its free. :)

Or www.patternform.co.uk where you can filter to the distance, going, class or anything else and see all the horses under the same criteria in one go. :ok

[Tom Hedonist]

Re: Courses question

Does this help?

Thats bloody brilliant! Thanks very much, its just what I've been looking for :notworthy :ok :clap

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Courses question Interestingly, I ran through patternform, with the timespan set to past 2 months: Going - allowed 1 notch either side. (So if good/good to firm, also allowed good to soft & firm) Distance - allowed 1 extra furlong either side of race distance. Class - allowed class of race and higher. Then I said that to qualify, horse had to be named in 2 of the 3 columns, or be the only horse named, full stop.

MEETING / TIME	GOING	DISTANCE	CLASS	SELECTION WOULD BE	OUTCOME
PLUMPTON
1.00	ALFADORA	ALPHA JULIET	ALFADORA	ALFADORA	1ST 6/5
2.00	OCEAN DU MOULIN	none	none	OCEAN DU MOULIN	1ST 4/11
2.30	CARROLL’S O’TULLY	CARROLL’S O’TULLY	CARROLL’S O’TULLY	CARROLL’S O’TULLY	2ND 9/4
WARWICK
2.10	TWIST BOOKIE	none	TWIST BOOKIE	TWIST BOOKIE	1ST 6/5
WOLVERHAMPTON
2.20	none	HEAVENLY SAINT	HEAVENLY SAINT	HEAVENLY SAINT	3RD 9/2
3.20	PRINCE NOEL	PRINCE NOEL	PRINCE NOEL	PRINCE NOEL	1ST 9/2
3.50	ONE NIGHT IN PARIS	ONE NIGHT IN PARIS	ONE NIGHT IN PARIS	ONE NIGHT IN PARIS	2ND 5/2
4.20	SPANISH CONQUEST ROYAL MELBOURNE	SPANISH CONQUEST	SPANISH CONQUEST	SPANISH CONQUEST	nowhere

Funny how in the very last race, the 10/11 shot lost and Royal Melbourne placed @ 25/1.....

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Courses question I should have added the the horse in each box was that with the highest win% under each set criteria.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Courses question I will add what Billy said....having run the same criteria through Sunday, the only qualifiers were on the AW and they all got beat! Going to go away now & work on this a bit more for the turf, I think.

[Cookie2001]

Re: Courses question These are tonights frontrunners at Kempton who have gone on to win:

	Bowl of Cherries	Kempton Park 6:20
	Sekula Pata (NZ)	Kempton Park 6:20
	Surdoue	Kempton Park 6:20
	Love Valentine (IRE)	Kempton Park 7:20
	Inquisitress	Kempton Park 7:50
	Justcallmehandsome	Kempton Park 7:50
	Time To Regret	Kempton Park 7:50
	Beneking	Kempton Park 8:20
	Vanadium	Kempton Park 8:20

Hope this helps, More at www.turftrax.com

[AndyAllweather]

Re: Courses question When studyin AW form i keep southwell form totally seperate, allot of the time studyin a race at 1 of the other aw tracks i just plane ignore the southwell form, southwell is totally different as it has a fibresand surface but it is the fairest of all the aw tracks and form on it usually holds up. A horse can win by 5l in southwell and off same mark come last at 1 of the others, southwell is also easier on the older horses who have done allot of raceing as its a more kind of springy or soft surface, it doesnt jar their bones you could say. Wolverhampton and lingfield form i take as 1, i think allot of horses can transfer their form between the 2 allot of the time but horses who come from off the pace are deffinately suited to lingfield as there is allot of blanket finishes unlike southwell. Kempton is a different kettle of fish all together tho, i rarely back here as i dont personally like the way the races are run here, its 2 sharp for me and a very fast surface in which i find allot of fancied horses get turned over, we all like big priced winners but i personally never had much luck with the lotto.