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With which hands should you shove?


slapdash

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You're short-stacked late in a STT. You'll either shove or fold. With which hands should you shove? To give a specific scenario, suppose you have 1000 chips left in a 10-player STT (50/30/20 prize structure). There are four players left, and the remaining 14,000 chips are roughly equally divided between them. You're on the button with blinds of 100/200, and UTG folds. With which hands does shoving give you higher tournament equity than folding? As well as being interested in people's views, it should be possible to do a calculation, assuming the Independent Chip Model gives a reasonable value for your tournament equity. But of course, it depends on which hands the blinds would call with if you do go all-in. Obviously this will vary from player to player, but if I classified hands into groups: A. Would definitely call. B. Would probably call (about 75% calls). C. Maybe, maybe not (about 50% calls). D. Probably wouldn't call (about 25% calls). E. Definitely wouldn't call. then I could experiment with different profiles for the opponents to see how much difference it makes. Would anybody like to give their guess as to how to divide the hands into groups A-E? Assume a $10 or $20 buy-in STT if it makes a difference. If I do get around to doing this, I'll try to do it so that it's easy to vary the conditions (stack sizes, etc.). Or does anybody know of a similar calculation that has already been done?

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