AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th)

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) You've been busy BJ :eek Great work as always guys - this is turning into one of the best forums on PL :ok

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) As part of the T.V rights carve-up, it was determined by Channel 10 and Fox Sports that the best 11 home & away games on Saturday afternoons/ public holidays would be shown on Channel 10. The next best 6 Saturday afternoon games would then be chosen by Fox Sports. Obviously the Collingwood v Carlton game was a first pick Fox Sports game.

Let’s face it, Collingwood only have 3 games live on Fox Sports all season and 19 on free to air. The matches have already been designated to the networks for the entire season. There should be no complaints from Collingwood supporters. Teams like Hawthorn and Kangaroos don’t even get half the free to air coverage Collingwood gets. These clubs are being slaughtered because club sponsors are not getting sufficient exposure. These two clubs in particular moved games to Gold Coast and Launceston respectively so they could make money from poor drawing games and have their games shown on free to air back to their home supporters. Both clubs were duped and out of the combined 7 games they play at their secondary home, only two are on free to air.

On the coverage itself, I must confess, I don’t watch Channel 7’s. I don’t watch sport delayed. I don’t think I’ve watched a Friday night game for 3 or 4 years. It’s live or it’s nothing as far as I’m concerned. I’ll listen instead.

Channel 10 miss a lot of action whilst we sit through endless replays. Their total package is O.K, but they certainly can improve. Fox Sports coverage looks cheap and nasty. Who will ever forget their 1^st quarter effort in Launceston. Their experts are under utilized. The last thing I want to hear is analysis from Dwayne Russell and Clinton Grybas when you have two experts sitting either side of you trying to get a word in whilst you draw breath. Their boundary experts are cardboard cut-outs with a pulse. Just a dull coverage and they don’t add much enthusiasm at all. I can’t believe they paid $320 million and deliver that.

The radio coverage is pretty good with all matches now being covered now. I listened to MMM last Saturday and they do a great job. They seem to enjoy their work, they are enthusiastic and bring excitement to the game. The ABC do a solid job, without the personalities with more of a news based edge to them. SEN are the newcomers and have hit the ground running. Their pre-game shows are terrific and have unearthed some great talent including Grant Thomas, Liam Pickering and Mark Robinson. They have assembled a great team on a small budget and are performing well. 3AW is rubbish. I want to know where the ball is and who is kicking it. I don’t want sound effects, music and commentators singing. I don’t want to decipher a nickname and try and guess who’s got the ball. I can’t believe they are the highest rating footy coverage. Rex Hunt ceased been funny 20 years ago, yet people still listen him. He appeals to the lowest common denominator, no doubt about that.

Congratulations to everybody contributing to this forum. You all do a great job, and I’m glad you are letting me part of it. Looks like we are all challenging ourselves to get the best out of one another. Tough weekend coming up and it’s going to be hard to preserve my good run. 8 out of my last 9 tips have saluted. Tread wearily in round 7, there are potholes everywhere.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th)

On the coverage itself, I must confess, I don’t watch Channel 7’s. I don’t watch sport delayed. I don’t think I’ve watched a Friday night game for 3 or 4 years. It’s live or it’s nothing as far as I’m concerned. I’ll listen instead.

Ahhh...the one benefit of living outside of Melbourne... (And the one and ONLY benefit of the new tv deal!) Bjv...I do something similar...but I just don't rate Disposals per Goal as a 'legit' stat. Basically, I don't care how many possessions a team has (in today's football I mean!)...I don't think there's any correlation from week to week, so I don't think it's a very good predictor at all. I always laugh (or shake my head!) when half way through the second quarter, the score is 10 goals to 2, and they show the kicks/goal 'stat', and the commentators are like, "wow, look at that...50 to 10" (or something similar)... ...well, no shit!!! Just look at the score!! Hardly any great revelation! :wall (Probably a good Robert Walls stat ;) ) I'd rather look at where the possessions go...I mean, 10 short kicks across half back mean nothing to me...it might even help them free up a man, or set up a decent forward structure... ...but anyway...having said all that, I gotta say that I just about agree whole-heartedly with the scores that you came up with!! :ok 2 bets for me...Collingwood/Dogs double @ 2.13ish, and Hawthorn +16.5 Will be looking for a St. K/Sydney and Brisbane/Crows under...but I've already seen some numbers for the Saints game and they are far lower than I had hoped for...and no doubt an Adelaide game will be too. Good luck guys. :cheers

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[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Wherever you look the predictions say it's a Collingwood win over Carlton. Pies make 4 changes In: Wakelin, Didak, Iles, Holland Out: Clement (calf), Davis, Cox, Egan (club suspension) The Blues make 3 In: Bower, Fisher, Koutoufides Out: Anderson, Blackwell, Cameron Cloke (shoulder) Even Jeffers sms'd last night indicating he wished he got a Collingwood Membership instead of a Carlton one. Pretty poor decision there son. :dude

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Hear what you are saying about the possessions too Taza and tend to agree with what you wrote. I was just trying it to see what it generated. Averages sort themselves out over a season and they can be quite useful at times. West Coast are averaging 400 posessions per game which is pretty high, and doubt they waste too many, so if teams can keep them from getting possession as much they may have a chance of beating them. Really enjoy your previews too because you put a different spin on things and have some great stats to back your thoughts, and you are very often on the mark :dude Keep it up :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Thanks mate...glad I didn't offend you with the Robert Walls call :lol (which I certainly didn't mean to!!) Just make sure your 'Pies perform this week ok...or Ads and Jeffers won't be the only ones giving you grief ;) An interesting market at Centrebet...First team to reach 25 points in the first quarter. I did some quick research, and I'm happy to say that Ads stats seem to back me up... Neither team to reach 25 points in the first quarter (St. K v. Syd) is paying 3.50!! :eek This season both teams are 2-4 at that number...and in H2H's since 2002, the Saints are 1-8 and Sydney 2-7 (the overs being 25 and 28!)... ...In what I expect (and a lot of others given the over/under is about 168 @ TAB and something similar at Lasetters!) to be a low scoring game...I gotta say that this seems like a remarkable price... ...Obviously a reasonably high risk bet given the small time-frame, but well over the real odds of it occuring you'd think. The other one is the same bet in Brisbane, but that's paying a slightly more realistic 2.70. Brisbane 3-3 this season (they do av. 7 shots each game tho)...Crows just 1-5, the over was 29 v. the Dogs. In 5 meetings since 2003, Brisbane are 1-4 and Crows 0-5! Hmmm...food for thought. Might be worth having a small play with if the game totals aren't where I'd like them to be...

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Hmmm certainly an interesting bet that actually. Will keep an eye on it this week Taza but dont think ill palce a bet. But the idea has some merit, StK-Syd games always low scoring but the only issue here is that if one team scores 4 goals in the first quarter then your bet is basically doomed. With players like Hall, Gehrig, Milne & O'Loughlan involved its definately a risk. This type of bet is one of those markets where past stats arent often the best guide though as the time frame is so small...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Fair dinkum you blokes!!! They could post 100/1 and you guys would be umming and arring worried that the bet might not win!!! What are the probilities of niether team scoring 25? Yeah, both could come out gunning for a shoot out for a change, who knows? But what are the odds? If you think the odds are worse than 3.5 then stay off. If you think they're better than 3.5, and Taza's stats are very compelling, then get on, FFS!!! I think I'll have a look at this myself - thanks Taza. :clap And the Bris one Taza. Windy conditions forecast so scoring could be tricky.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Not quite got the AFL pedigree you guys do but I like the look of the Either Team Under 15.5 bet for all the Saturday night/Sunday games. You'd only need 2/5 to turn a profit and all 5 games look like they could be pretty close to me. Like the price on the Kangaroos, but maybe I'm missing something there. For some reason I fancy a shootout in the battle of the mediocre halfwits, but the value I feel likes in the pick the score double market, which I somehow doubt the TAB will be offering as it's a Satudary Afternoon game. Btw Ash, I'm always happy to post up a big price bet that ends up going tits up :P

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th)

Btw Ash' date=' I'm always happy to post up a big price bet that ends up going tits up :P[/quote']That's the spirit Oscar :ok. Gotta lose a dollar to make a dollar, I say. Backing winners sucks! :D

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th)

That's the spirit Oscar :ok. Gotta lose a dollar to make a dollar, I say. Backing winners sucks! :D

Yes, well, that Roos-Roos-Roos-Swans bet I had last week didn't feel too good after the Swans got within 4! Agree with the analysis on the 1st to 25 bet too, I can see it being a bit of value, although I'd worry about the Swans coming out fired up after a couple of disappointing performances. Games can be funny like that at times and in this particular case I could see this sort of motivation interfering. That's of course not to say the price isn't value, just that it makes a little harder to decipher.

[vagabund]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Hi Guys Great to find this AFL forum. Interesting views with solid number crunching. I have no clue about Aussie rules. I have never seen a complete game on TV...only clippings on sports programs. Last week, my mate saw St Kilda -3.5 when it should have been more. Then Geelong -10.5 when everyone else was at -14.5. I would have jumped in right away if it had been NFL or NBA. Of course, this game is a lot different in terms of scoring. What difference in spread/handicap (between sportsbooks) would you guys call a "value bet" ? Thanks for your posts. I guess I will be hanging around in this forum for the remainder of the footy season.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) :welcomevagabund. A team at -3 would generally be 1.90 on the moneyline. -9 would be about 1.70 at the moneyline. I've noticed some (obviously due to minumal Oz clients) US and European books can be slow to move in line with Australian books - so obviously a great advantage for punters with those accounts. I'd suggest ask here when you see any of those so we can give you the low-down. Quite often a star player out or simply value being taken up here. Yes, I was actually thinking of you Oscar when Swans got to within a kick. 21.00 wasn't it? The bet lost, I imagine you can't pay the rent and will be evicted tomorrow, but geez I'm proud of ya! :clap

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Yeah mate, it was 21.00. Probably not the greatest price ever but it still needed to be taken. As heartbreaking as it was to not actually win it, I'm still much happier to be on that type of bet than say being on Port this weekend. Agreed with the UK books too, they can be quite useful for the NRL and I imagine equally so on the AFL. Prices hardly ever seem to move either.

[Punto Banco]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) ... I thought as this is the best weekly thread on PL I picked this location 2 post my 200th post...:D :cow :nana :cow :nana :cow :nana :cow :nana :cow :nana :cow :nana :cow :nana :cow :nana :cow :nana :ok :cheers :ok :cheers :ok :cheers :ok :cheers :ok :cheers :ok :cheers :ok :cheers :ok

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Interesting little fun multi (Kangaroos, Collingwood, Port, Brisbane, Melbourne (to break its duck), Hawthorn & West Coast (left the Saints-Swans as being too hard to pick) at a shade over 81.00. Seems this is the first week of the seson where form may (yes, it's a big ask) win out over upsets. Have put a 2/10 on this. A big :hope

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Score Predictor

Kangaroos 93 Essendon 94 Collingwood 101 Carlton 93 (Correction. Sorry Beejayville) Port Adelaide 121 Richmond 75 St.Kilda 78 Sydney 101 Brisbane 87 Adelaide 70 Geelong 98 West Coast 68 Western Bulldogs 108 Melbourne 98 Fremantle 93 Hawthorn 86

The Facts

- Essendon has never beaten the Kangaroos at Telstra Dome. - Since 2000, 25 teams have been beaten by more than 100 points with 10 winning the next round. - Adelaide have not scored more than 90 points at the Gabba in their last 5 matches. - West Coast average 58 points in their last 4 visits to Geelong. - Hawthorn has failed to kick 60 points at Subiaco in 4 of their last 5 attempts. - Richmond is fielding a team is not dissimilar to the team that was narrowly beaten by Sydney in round 2. - Collingwood has 7 of their best 22 players missing. Carlton only has 2. - Melbourne fielding their best team since round 2.

This Weekend

The Sunday games are the ones to tackle this weekend. The Bulldogs are just going at the moment and they need a big win to make the competition sit up and take notice. It won’t happen here with the Demons starting to come good. Even though I don’t think they’ll get up in this game , the Demons look like they can match the Dogs in every department. Neitz and Green will pose problems to the Dogs’ defence. The game in Perth is a season defining game. The Dockers must win to the respect of the football world back. The Hawks need to take a big scalp to enhance their reputation. They have a difficult 5 week stretch upcoming and need a couple of wins to keep the finals dream alive. The Hawks were hardly tested last week whilst the Dockers wilted in Brisbane. I think the Dockers can match the Hawks hardness at the ball and the forward line strength will be the Hawks biggest test so far. The Hawks need to start well to be a chance, but have not done so in any game so far. The Hawks will be brave, but the Dockers have the ammunition to blow them away.

Suggested Bets

MELBOURNE Line (+14.5) FREMANTLE Win, Line (-15.5), Points (-20.5)

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Always love your input Burntua but not sure how you could have... Collingwood 83 - Carlton 93 Carlton have been averaging 124 points against every game they have played. Pies have had 4 or 5 of their best players out every week this season. Buckley and Holland havn't played a game...Licuria has been out...We had 9 players play last week against Adelaide and all had played 40 games or less. We have only lost to Port and West Coast...Port only run over us in the last quarter, and not by much...Eagles only beat us by 2 goals in Perth and we had our chances...We beat Adelaide at AAMI where they fought back to hit the lead by 2 goals in the 3rd quarter, yet we ran over them in the last quarter to have what most would consider a great win...That is not bad form going in to a game against Carlton who have not really set the world on fire...We have Wakelin back in to bolster the defence, and 2 handy inclusions in Didak and Holland. Carlton may have only 2 of their best players missing, but how many oftheir players would you rate best?...How many Carlton players would get games at other Clubs?...About half a dozen maybe, on form, facts, and figures, everything points to a Collingwood win...Of course that doesn't mean they will win, but there is nothing in any way shape or form that indicates Carlton should win this on current displayed form. The rest of your figures arn't bad apart from that, great work again :ok Collingwood have averaged 11 goals a game against in 6 games and have played Port, West Coast and Adelaide in their first 6 games...Carlton are averaging 18 goals against a game and have a look who they have played.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) For all those jumping aboard the Geelong bandwagon people should have a look at their form. They have won 3 games against the bottom three sides...They play West Coast who are unbeaten in 6 games and the Eagles have averaged only 9 goals against each game because they have such a great defence. When was the last time the West Coast were offered up at $2-00 or more. I am surpised Ash hasn't jumped all over West Coast because on exposed form they are the best value we have seen all season :dude

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) I've marked the cats the 1.80 favourite bjv, believe it or not, so I figure the market is about right. Obviously it does go without saying they're running out of chances to be the side I think they are. I notice a bit of money for Richmond. I'm thinking of playing them but want to leave it late.

[Marcus000]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Wow this Kanga game is supposed to be a home game right? Listening to the radio it seems like the crowd is more for Essendon.

[vagabund]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) BurnTua Crisp, Is your score prediction computer generated ? Why are you suggesting to bet on Fremantle (-15.5) when your predicted score is Fremantle 93 Hawthorn 86 ?

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) My score predictor is calculated from 5 different components as explained in the round 1 thread. I average those components out which leaves me with a final total using a pen and paper by the way. I don't necessarily agree with what the calculations thrown out. I thought the Roos would win tonight even though the predictor didn't. I think Geelong will lose to West Coast but the predictor says they will win comfortably. As far as the Dockers-Hawks match goes, I think the Hawks will get hammered, but the stats show a very close game that could go either way. I hope this explains things for you. All the best with your punting and thanks for joining us. The score predictor is just a bit of fun that has been mildly successful. My suggested bets have a better strike rate and more profitable. To Beejayville, after reading your post, I re-checked my calculations and found I omitted one component which pushes the Pies over the line. The Pies will start hot favourites, but it will be no cakewalk. Nobody in their right mind would have thought Essendon would have beaten Collingwood with a few rounds remaining last year either, but the boilover occurred. Collingwood have only 3 of their best 12 players out. I think you overestimate some of Collingwood's players. Buckley is like Hird. Both were great, but now are just average. Lockyer is now more effective than Buckley ever will. Players like Licuria, Medhurst and Holland aren't even in Collingwood's top 10. This game could go either way make no mistake. I re-adjusted a few other totals in the score predictor after discovering my mistake. All the best everyone and good punting to you all.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th)

Wow this Kanga game is supposed to be a home game right? Listening to the radio it seems like the crowd is more for Essendon.

Essendon have a much bigger following. Just as we talked about a few weeks ago - once the Kanga forwards start to hold their grabs and their possitive energy playing style. They can certainly make the eight.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) How good is Edwards?!! Just think what he could do if he was 6 inches taller!! Was just talking about it last night, how some "obvious" players don't get picked up. Edwards off a 100 goal VFL season gets rookie listed... Priddis of one of the most amazing seasons in football history (pretty sure he polled 11 BOG's in 12 games last year in the WAFL??) and yet he slips thru to get rookie listed by the Eagles. Madness. One of those games I was totally happy with leaving alone last night. Could well have been a far different story had Essendon kicked well early...they performed far better up forward than I expected, just let themselves down with the last kick. Oh well...1 tip in! :D Big moves on both the Saints and Geelong I see...1.75 for each... Braver people than me out there, that's for sure! :lol

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Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Hard to justify why Geelong are so short on the back of one good performance. St Kilda also a bit too short for my liking so ill be staying away from that. I reckon Richmond may get closer to Port Adelaide than most predict, you can get $1.90 on the Tigers with a +37.5 handicap which is worth a shot in my opinion

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Brisbane vs Adelaide Adelaide travel Saturday night to take on the high flying Lions on the back of a loss at home to Collingwood last week. The Crows will need to pick up some form soon if they want to beat the Lions here, or let alone finish in a top 4 position. They currently sit in 8th position and their growing injury crisis is threatening to derail their season. Brisbane currently sit in 3rd position with 4 wins from 6 and are playing a very exciting brand of football, especially with their young kids. The Crows currently have 14 players who are injured or not fit, a list which includes some big name players. Ben Hudson, Jason Proplyzia & Nick Gill are the only players who look like returning this round. The injury news isnt as bad for Brisbane, Joel Tippet will face a fitness test. Head to head Brisbane have an excellent record against the Crows winning 10 of the past 13 clashes and that trend looks like continuing this Saturday night. Players to look out for include Luke Power and Simon Black who both have averaged 32 disposals in the past 3 games against Adelaide, while for Tyson Edwards has averaged 27 touches for Adelaide. Pick Brisbane -11.5 at $2.10 - (4/10) - Centrebet

[url=http://www.freebetinfo.com.au/link.php?p=sportingbet]

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) I've got just one thing to say today... We are the Navy Blues, We are the old dark Navy Blues, We’re the team that never lets you down, We’re the only team old Carlton knows, With all the champions they like to send us, We’ll keep our end up. And they will know that they’ve been playing Against the famous old dark Blues. GO BLUES!!!!! :nana

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th)

How good is Edwards?!!

It's beause he is from West Coast :D