TazaD Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Brisbane vs Adelaide. The Crows currently have 14 players who are injured or not fit' date= a list which includes some big name players. Ben Hudson, Jason Proplyzia & Nick Gill are the only players who look like returning this round. Quite the oppisite, Ads... Hudson has been playing all season but is in some doubt for tonight's game. (Who the hell is Nick Gill! :lol ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) I've got just one thing to say today... We are the Navy Blues, We are the old dark Navy Blues, We’re the team that never lets you down, We’re the only team old Carlton knows, With all the champions they like to send us, We’ll keep our end up. And they will know that they’ve been playing Against the famous old dark Blues. GO BLUES!!!!! :nana Unfortunately you wont be singing it today Jeffers :lol Ads really gave you a bum steer when he put you on to Carlton :rollin Blues played pretty well altho the Pies kicked like Stevie Wonder on acid in the first half when shooting for goal...Burntua Crisp's score predictor was looking on the money for a great portion of the game. Good solid win by the black and white but the Blues put us under a lot of pressure for 3 quarters and we made many mistakes, won't be able to do that against the good sides. :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAO Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) if someone is watching brisbane-adelaide game what the hell brisb doing? and adelaida is full of missing players? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Yeh I have been watching the game and Adelaide playing their usual solid football...The best team Brisbane has beaten is Hawthorn and the Lions are a tad overated...Looking back through first 6 rounds thay have lost to Kangaroos and Sydney...Adelaide has beaten Port and Sydney and lost by a point in Perth to Freo, so even with players out they have played good football. Adelaide may not end up winning the game, but it is no suprise that they are playing well and leading. I initially liked Brisbane earlier in the week but went for Adelaide in my footy tipping because of above reasons....Having said that, I wouldn't have backed Adelaide, costs nothing to tip them tho at AFL tipping site, have to catch Taza :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) haha...well, was sitting pretty with 3/3...now a slightly less comfortable 3/5! :D I've definately given myself an out this week tho...pretty sure I've said 6 or 7 times what a tough week it is to tip! lol! Jeffers is changing teams like his undies atm anyway...(hang on, he's English, is that very often?? ;) )... ...on the turps with Nietz and the boys last night! Unbelievable... Seriously tho...can't believe how commentators (both tv and radio) were saying how 'close' the Coll/Carlton game was... ...no, it wasn't!! Given Carlton kicked 2 goals in the last minute of the 1st after the 'Pies butchered 3 or 4 chances...then something like 15 I50's to 6 in the second...it was only a matter or time before Collingwood put the effort on the scoreboard. Was a flogging all day I thought. Great defensive effort by St. Kilda...although pretty poor coaching to continualy rotate the Sydney ruckmen?? Surely Jolly in the ruck with Spida up forward (vice verca) was the way to go against a struggling back 6 of the Saints?? Brisbane were never in it...Crows pressure superb all night...I guess it was onnly a matter of time beofre they came good wasn't it?... Will be on the Dogs/Melbourne over tomorrow too... 192-211 and 212+ both 3.00 @ Lasseters...still undecided whether to take the 1.50 for over 192 or the even for over 212 (saver in middle)...but hopefully Centrebet will come up with even better numbers to save me the thinking! (Anyone else think the new Centrebet site is ****ing god-damn awful??!!)....Just...painful!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Centrebet is on a par with the AFL site...Both crap :puke Well I am 5 from 5 at the moment Taza, slowly making ground in the 2 tipping comps I am in online. I have West Coast, Hawthorn and Bulldogs tomorrow to get the elusive 8 up. Was just thinking after watching Adelaide tonight, makes the Pies form even better having beaten them last week. :clap Agree with you on the Pies/Blues, the pies attacked for most of the game, just kicked for goal like Steady Eddy at times...Got 2 sms's after the game, one from Ads, one from Jeffers, saying Carlton were the team that should have won...Either they were both drinking heavily, or on some form of mind altering substance :rollin As usual Taza you are spot on with your summary of today's games...Some top work in this thread by all the people in here :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koi_saisei Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Only got brisbane wrong so far for my tips :( I mostly went on their record against Adelaide and at home. They didn't want it as much as Adelaide. Tyson Edwards what a star. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) ...on the turps with Nietz and the boys last night! Unbelievable... A-List now mate! :lol (Anyone else think the new Centrebet site is ****ing god-damn awful??!!)....Just...painful!!!! I've heard this from a few people, I think it's better than the old one :eek Agree with you on the Pies/Blues' date=' the pies attacked for most of the game, just kicked for goal like Steady Eddy at times...Got 2 sms's after the game, one from Ads, one from Jeffers, saying Carlton were the team that should have won...Either they were both drinking heavily, or on some form of mind altering substance[/quote'] Pagan needs to go. I think he's overseen too many floggings and we need a change. Too many long balls going on, we're a better side than that imo. When we're good, we're top 4 good - when we're bad, we're Richmond bad :wall I can sleep at night knowing I don't follow the black and white sh!te tho :ok Well done the Pies, thought it was a decent performance, but you ain't gonna get very far, you're definately over-rated :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 12, 2007 Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Well done the Pies' date=' thought it was a decent performance, but you ain't gonna get very far, you're definately over-rated :loon[/quote']Don't congratulate them, jeffers. It's simply another sad day for football, and that's all! Liked the second half of your sentence much better. ;) Swans are giving nothing! Back end of season side, sure, but ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 12, 2007 Author Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) (Anyone else think the new Centrebet site is ****ing god-damn awful??!!)....Just...painful!!!! Have to agree with you here Taza, I actually liked the old layout as it was real easy to navigate. This new update is shocking :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 12, 2007 Author Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) I wouldnt get too carried away if I was a Collingwood fan, that win could come back to bite you on draft day. I agree with you Jeffers in regards to what you said about Dennis Pagan, he has gotta go as he is a shocker. His game plan is awful. The 'Pagans Paddock' game plan may of worked last decade when football was a lot different and he had Wayne Carey in his Nth Melbourne team, but there is no way it will work for Carlton in this modern era. Long bombs to 50/50 contests is what is killing Carlton. However now that Carltons 2007 is over, i think we should keep Pagan rather than sack him because we are pretty much not going to win to many games with him at the helm, hence giving us another top selection at the draft. If we lose another 13 games (out of 15) then we have another priority draft pick :nana :nana :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) There is definitely a defeatist mentality down at Carlton...If Carlton win 13 out of 15 they will make the finaks :dude And that allows for another loss to Collingwood in the 2 losses from 15 :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) West Coast @ Geelong under 169.5 (2.60) 170-189 @ 2.90 Looks a pretty generous price to me...(Would have liked the plain under 171.5 (2.25) @ Lasseters, but they won't let me deposit enough apparently?!) West Coast only gone over 171 once all season...that was 175 v. a terrible defensive Richmond. Geelong have been in some high scoring games, but look who against...Dogs, Carlton, Kangas Richmond...all bad defensively and all free-flowing teams. (3 of those in the Dome too). The last 5 meetings have av'd 143...a 199 last year @ Geelong, but 15.8 to 16.5 was kicking we won't see again today. Last 5 @ Geelong have av'd 146...besides last years 199, we have 142, 126, 98 and 164. Two very good defensive teams, and West Coast generally butcher some easy chances... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Neither team to reach 25 points in the first quarter (St. K v. Syd) is paying 3.50!! :eek St Kilda vs. Sydney Swans1st2nd3rdFinalSt Kilda4.47.412.615.7 (97)Sydney Swans4.16.48.511.5 (71) Well the bet lost (not by much) but wins if applied to the second and fourth quarters. For those who played it, a loser, but still proved a good try at those odds IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) I've actually got a bit of an embarrasingly lucky story that goes with those first quarter bets... ...my parents came over to stay...we went out for tea (Mothers Day and all boys, everyone loves their mum, right!!), and due to booking late, the only earlyish time we could get in for tea (at the place I wanted to go obviously!) was 5.45! So, anyway...I decided to stay away from the 25 point bets until I saw the game totals...of course, by the time we got ready to go out...got home about 5 minutes after both games had started (I thought the Brisbane game was a 7.30 affair)... ...so managed to miss out on placing the bets. Probably a good thing anyway (well, definately given the result :D)... I do tend to get fairly emotionally involved in my footy bets...was likely best that Mum didn't have to see me swear and throw things around the room for the sake of a couple of points either way! :lol Ended up getting 1.50 for over 185.5 and 192 at a combination of Betfair and Lasseters for the Doggies game. I won't even try to explain the desperation...but I have very strong reasons to believe this is a high scorer...particularly before HT...(I really don't wanna say why! :$ ) Go Dogs and Hawks I say, why not!:loon (Someone tell me Zoidberg isn't the best character ever invented!!...2nd best behind Bender maybe ;) ) :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) About bloody time someone got more free kicks that the Eagles. Go cats! Thats the true home ground advantage that the weagles get every time at Subi is now being rubben in their faces. I love it. Go umps, blow hard! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) rubbed even Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Good point Chairman :ok Judd didn't get a free kick and actually gave one away...Cats had over 400 possessions against the Eagles who have been averaging around 300 possessions a game against...West Coast been averaging a miserly 9 goals a game against this season and the Cats managed to kick 16 goals against them. Good effort by the Cats to kick more than 100 against the Eagles :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Great work on your unders and overs and margin Tips in here Taza...Top quality stuff :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koi_saisei Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) The free kick count favours attacking teams. West Coast normally dominated contested possessions and get to the football first, hence why they recieve more frees. In this game Geelong attacked the football harder and won the contested possessions, hence the free kick count higher for them. Free kick counts aren't supposed to be even. It's reflective of the game. There really isn't much of a home ground advantage either. West Coast get the same amount of frees whereever they play, if they play to their normal standard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Glad someone explained that koi, before the subject gets out of hand. :clap Never see black and red showing 50/50 at the casino either. The free kick thing is invariably people making excuses, hoping too hard, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Actually...I kinda disagree... I mean, don't get me wrong...I'm all for the bloke attacking the ball getting the free kick (if there's one there of course!!!)...(and if he doesn't get a totally rediculous holding the ball against him these days!!!)... ...but you cannot tell me that there aren't hero's and villains in the game right now. I know Bjv has gone on about Fev...and again, I know to some extent you make your own luck...but tell me he doesn't get crucified each week?! How often does he get a free kick in a genuine 50/50 contest?...answer: clearly less than 50%...FACT. Anyone watch the game on tv Friday night?...Can't wait to see the replay, but as well as I can remember, this is a direct quote... ...Pretty sure it was Pevrell who got caught in a pack...the usual cry of ball went up...umpire said (literally said!), "No, he's a ball gatherer, not a ball carrier!!!" ...I kid you not!!! ...so, by association...if, say, a Nathan Eagleton had have been caught in exactly the same situation, it would have been holding the ball??!!! Just ****ing rubbish!!! Today's game that just finished...Hawks 5 points down, Sewell does a tremendous job of evading 2-3 tackles to break free into the middle with about 4 minutes left...ran too far!!....RAN TOO FAR???!!! Are you kidding me??!!! Ran all of about 5 metres!!!...It;s ****ing distance, not time in possession you know, Mr. Umpire right??!! Freo get the ball, kick a goal...game over. Horrible decision, that absolutely influenced the result. You cannot tell me that there are not "favourite" players...you just can't...Judd (total example) and Fev...Josh Carr even...initiate a clash that is identical, and you tell me what the aftermath is?...*** Free kicks are a random part of the game...and I just about mean that literally now...random!... ...(slightly OT here....) but...the AFL have made big steps in gaining bookie confidence in gathering information about players betting on the game...it's even more, far more likely that an umpire changes a game result than a player...(certainly not suggesting that any have or will!)...but I do love that commentators point out every now and then that umpire A has paid 7 free kicks to 0 to a particular team... Man...sorry guys...guess I was the one to take it out of hand...:lol ....oh, oh...one last gasp...anyone see the last minute of the Doggie game??...Bruce gets a (legit) free kick on the wing...the ball spills forward of the mark...and out of bounds even... ...the Bulldog player stands on the mark (where the mark was!)...Bruce strolls forward, picks the ball up (yes, still OOB), and just continues on, and has his kick... ...ah, nope, you can't do that champ...um....ah...hang on...WTF!!!!!!!....PLAY ON!!!!....Umpire allowed it!!!....Just ****ing madness! One of the most basic laws/rules of the game, just totally ignored, at an amazingly tight, important time of the game... ...those 10 seconds and 10 metres could well have made trhe difference. Sorry...I know that's more incompetence than out-right favouritism...but still...I think it highlights the utter...well, incompetence! Makes me mad......who would hve thought :$ *** (EDIT)...Just thought of a real world example....Goodes' cowardly shoulder charge into Godfrey's back...86 points?...not a week...just a warning... ...can you imagine if Pickett had have done exactly the same thing?...6 weeks. Point made. Good night! (Nice work Freo for chipping out the last 40 seconds ;) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) I think they've changed it from distance to steps?? 15 steps. Mind you the umps have been lenient on it this year, so needing the Hawks win I wasn't over thrilled either that they paid the first for season. I'd have to see the Peverill one Taza. If he is the 'ball gatherer' then it's the right decision (not sure if that's quite the point you make?). Always gunna be borderline decisions on that one though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) I think it is more the umpires interpretations of the free kicks that is the problem...They are giving free kicks for body contact, not infringments in some cases, and that costs teams a goial when paid in the forward line...Players have to earn their kicks, not just run forward to the ball and then get paid a free cos they were brushed by their opponent. In Fev's case taza I was talking more in his actions after not getting the free kick, the way he carried on and didn't do the team thing and provide a second effort...James Hird did it to a small extent on Friday night, and when a player such as hird is getting frustrated with the free kicks then there is something wrong. Umpires are killing the game, well rules people are, the game is soft and defenders are at a great disadvantage now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BURNTUA CRISP Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Round 7 is complete, and some teams thinking they could make finals should start making alternative arrangements. A few teams were badly exposed for the whole football world to see. Brisbane were made to look second-rate by an injury depleted Crows line-up who play a lot better away from AAMI stadium. Brisbane only had 2 from their best team missing and perhaps some of those younger bodies are feeling the strain against some seasoned campaigners. The pen can safely be put through the Bombers as well. After getting under the guard in the first few weeks, their midfield has been exposed as clearly the worst in the competition. Opposition supporters can’t believe their luck when the likes of Watson, Peverill and the Johnsons get 100 possessions between them and do nothing with it. It’s time for Sheedy to turn to youth before the inevitable axe falls. They have a few easier games coming up to get their season back on track, but winning those is merely window dressing because they have plenty of building to do. It was great to see the Cats take a big scalp, but they need to back it up again against the Dockers next weekend. With a few tough trips upcoming, they must make every post a winner. No concerns for the Eagles after today. They were just getting a poor game out of the system. They’ll have others throughout the season but I don’t think Worsfold will be losing any sleep. Thumbs Up Mark Williams – Quickly rebuilt his list, and cheekily experimented with his team yesterday. Top coach. St.Kilda – They are much harder at the contest, and starting to find consistency. They are about to launch a serious challenge. Fremantle – Survived a serious test today which should launch their finals assault. Thumbs Down Essendon – No Lloyd, no Goldspink, no Essendon. Carlton – Do they realise a match goes for 4 quarters? That game was lost at 3QT. Sydney – I think the ship is sinking. A win against Port next week is essential. The Important Bit I tipped 7 winners this weekend missing on Geelong. I’ll highlight my tips in future. Score Predictor Kangaroos 93 Essendon 94 Collingwood 101 Carlton 93 (Correction. Sorry Beejayville) Port Adelaide 121 Richmond 75 St.Kilda 78 Sydney 101 Brisbane 87 Adelaide 70 Geelong 98 West Coast 68 Western Bulldogs 108 Melbourne 98 Fremantle 93 Hawthorn 86 Suggested Bets MELBOURNE Line (+14.5):nana FREMANTLE Win, Line (-15.5), Points (-20.5):nana :nana :wall Saturday wasn’t a great day for the score predictor, but today was exceptional. Hopefully it will be as accurate for the remainder of the season. The suggested bets are still flying getting 3 out of 4 correct. That’s 11 out of the last 13 correct at 85%. Let’s hope I can keep that strike rate up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 13, 2007 Share Posted May 13, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Great work in here too Burntua :clap Quality analysis :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vagabund Posted May 14, 2007 Share Posted May 14, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) I won my first AFL bet: Hawthorn + 16.5.What a start to my footy betting...couldn't have been closer. And it took me a couple of minutes to understand box score - it's cumulative not individual for each quarter like US sports. I need to look at Burntua's score predictor method. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 14, 2007 Author Share Posted May 14, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Great work again Burntua, another quality round. I do have one question though mate, you have probably explained it before (and if ya have, i must of missed it) but how do you come up with your predictions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vagabund Posted May 14, 2007 Share Posted May 14, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Burntua crisp, You mentioned that your method is explained in round 1 thread but it's not easy to find it. If you could post it and moderators can put it in sticky, it will be easy for all of us. Ads25, I guess your prediction system is regression based. Probably you can tweak it using burntua's method to make a better model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 14, 2007 Share Posted May 14, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) I think they've changed it from distance to steps?? 15 steps. Mind you the umps have been lenient on it this year, so needing the Hawks win I wasn't over thrilled either that they paid the first for season. I'd have to see the Peverill one Taza. If he is the 'ball gatherer' then it's the right decision (not sure if that's quite the point you make?). Always gunna be borderline decisions on that one though. I don't reckon I'm going to get to see a replay, so can't be 100% sure...but I didn't even get the "hurry up!", feeling you get when you know a bloke is about to get pinged. Really did seem like a horrible decision at the time...anyway... ...no, the quote was "He's a ball gatherer, not a ball carrier"... I took it absolutely that it inferred that because he (Pevrell) is an in and under, more grunty, less skillful type, that he then gets a bit more leniency than a more skillful, softer if you like, player who finds himself in exactly the same situation... ...nothing at all to do with the situation...totally about what an umpire was clearly heard to say...and again, I think it clearly shows different rules for different players. Umpires are killing the game, well rules people are, the game is soft and defenders are at a great disadvantage now. I honeslty hadn't thought it was so bad, Bjv, until Saturday night. Both games were terribly umpired, and I clearly recall a free kick against Barry Hall for standing side by side with his defender and using his strength to push him out for the way...a pish in the chest that is, not back. I tell you, that if struggling teams want to cut back on expenses, then then first guy they can get rid of is the weights/strength coach. At this rate, extra muscle is going to be a disadvantage...anyuone that falls over after contact will get a free kick. Mybe Nathan Kracker and yound Brad Dick are 5 years ahead of their time ;) Oh btw, BURNTUA CRISP...you didn't really back Freo on the ML, -15.5 and -21.5, surely?! I've seen you do it a couple of times, and you're just costing yourself money. Just seems a strange way to go about it for me...you would have won more by just taking the ML without the other spreads...not to mention if you take it 3 times and risk the same amount you did anyway? :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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