Rio on the flat 07

[BillyHills]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Well done Rio, great effort!

[bowles10]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 nice one rio, back on the hunt:ok

[kevsul]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 :clap :clap Well done mate.:clap :clap

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Thank you Gentlemen, as always your support is much appreciated. A total stake of 265pts returned 702.5pts for a profit of 437.5pts on the day. I was a little disappointed with Cockney Rebel & also thought for a moment that Duke of Marmalade was going to hold on. I watched the racing on the BBC but when the two "fashion experts" came on I kept hopping over to ATR. As I did this the owner of Cockney Rebel was just getting interviewed by Alex & he looked shell shocked & even more so when big Mac dived in & asked him if he thought Peslier had given the horse too much to do. The winner Excellent Art had come from a similar position to Cockney Rebel but Spencer had waited for the gap & fair play to him he got the split. It looked like Cockney Rebel had come to win, especially from the reverse camera angle but then dived left. If he'd taken the Spencer route he may have got up, but the game is full of if's & but's. To prove the point if Jeremy hadn't gone right in the next the Ramonti wouldn't have got back up & so the luck levelled back out there. Once again I switched to ATR & there's Mac ranting that Dettori's broken the whip rules & the horse should lose the race. The problem with the whip is if the jock's don't look to be making enough effort they get done & if they make too much effort they also get in bother. All this & barely a bleat from anybody when one of the Aussie riders gets to wear spurs :eek Inchnadamph ran ok but lost his place in the scrimmage on the home turn & his chance had gone, theres a decent race in this one still, maybe the Northumberland Plate? Henrythenavigator did it well & should get a mile, be interesting to see what he does for the rest of his 2yo career. Miss Andretti was very impressive & if she goes to the Golden Jubilee she'll take some stopping, Takeover Target ran a nice race & I'm still happy with the bet I struck last week. Stakes 854pts Returns 942.5pts P/L +88.5pts Ante-post stakes 30pts Ante-post P/L -30pts 5.5mm of rain overnight, the ground should still be on the fast side especially on the straight course. 2.30 This would look to be between Major Cadeaux & US Ranger, there was half a length & the width of the track between them in the 2000 Guineas with US Ranger ending up on the far side which was suposed to be the wrong side. Major Cadeaux is in stall 1 & US Ranger in 16, after yesterday you'd think that the higher numbers were favoured but Dandy Man ran well enough from stall 1 & you never know if the grounds had a drop of water put on in to try to level things up. A leave alone race for me. 3.05 Echelon is in fine nick but sometimes takes a while to get into top gear & this is a short straight. Nannina won the Coronation Stakes in style from Flashy Wings last year & on fast ground would take some beating. Satwa Queen has some nice form & had Nannina 5l behind her when second in a Group 1 at Longchamp last October but she would prefer some cut. Much depends on the ground & this is another leave alone race. 3.45 This looks like the race of the meeting. A Derby winner, an Irish Derby & Irish Champion Stakes winner, an International Stakes winner & a Breeders Cup winner & I'm going for something else. Sir Percy is the Derby winner but like so many winners of that race in recent times he's failed to build on that since. Big flop in the Coronation Cup LTO & plenty to prove here. Dylan Thomas was third at Epsom & took the Irish Derby after. Below that form on softish ground at York in the International but bounced back to beat Ouija Board in the Irish Champion & ended the season last of four at Belmont. Looked to have improved over the Winter when landing his first two starts this season including the Group 1 Prix Ganay at Longchamp. Worried out of it close home by Notnowcato LTO in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh. Notnowcato was the International winner beating the good yardstick Maraahel a short head. That didn't look the strongest Group 1 & Notnowcato was last of eight next time in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket. Needed the race when 3l behind Red Rocks FTO at Sandown before the win at the Curragh. Red Rocks kept finding one or two too good last season in some decent races till winning the Breeders Cup Turf at Churchill Downs but things may have dropped just right for him there. 10f would be the minimum he'd need & he may do better back at a mile & a half. Manduro was another who ran some good races last season including a third to Ouija Board in this race but only won the once FTO. Was often held up last year & a change of tactics to be more up with the pace under this jockey has seen him win both starts this season including a Group 1 at Longchamp LTO beating yesterdays close Queen Anne third Turtle Bowl by 5l. That was on soft ground but before that he broke the course record in the Earl of Sefton at Newmarket on fast ground & he's the one for me. Bet Manduro 50pts @ 11/4 Paddy Power. 4.20 4 & 5yo's have won 18 of the last 20 18 of 20 had won in the last six starts only one from 67 has won with a penalty Only two have been over 33/1. Having narrowed the runners down I've backed three against the field. Supaseus is a C&D winner & is drawn against the far rail in 30. Can run some stinkers but beat the usefull Pinpoint FTO in a good handicap at Newmarket. Up 6lb for that but has been kept fresh for this & jockey is two from three on him. European Dream won over this trip at Ripon LTO with a bit in hand. Needs to improve but has won in big fields before including the Spring Mile at Newcastle by 6l in March. Generally 25/1 but is bigger on the exchanges. Trafalgar Square won over 7f at Newmarket FTO, stays a mile & goes on any ground & looks to be improving. Bets Supaseus 30pts @ 11/1 Blue Sq European Dream 10pts @ 36.0 Betfair Trafalgar Square 20pts @ 18/1 Coral I'm not playing in the last two races today. Rio.

[BillyHills]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Rio, looks like Cockney Rebel pulled a muscle behind, be interesting to know when this happened but could explain the below par run to some extent, bet the owner was over the moon when he heard that, keeps his dreams alive in suppose.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07

Rio' date=' looks like Cockney Rebel pulled a muscle behind, be interesting to know when this happened but could explain the below par run to some extent, bet the owner was over the moon when he heard that, keeps his dreams alive in suppose.[/quote'] As noted elsewhere it seems he's fractured his pelvis :hope he makes a speedy recovery. A win & a non runner from the four yesterday, the stake was therefore 100pts & returns 187.5pts, up 87.5pts on the day. A fine performance from Manduro. I'd like to be a fly on the wall while the owner & trainer discuss where to go next, The Baron seems to favour dropping back to a mile & Fabre is talking King George/Arc. I'd pay good money to see him take on Authorized in the Eclipse but I'm not holding my breath. Supaseus raced alone on the far rail & like Dandy Man in the Kings Stand had nothing to keep him company, I don't think he'd have beaten the winner though. Stakes 954pts Returns 1130pts P/L +176pts Ante-post stakes 60pts Ante-post P/L -30pts 2.30 A leave alone race for me betting wise but I'm having a small perm on the placepot today so I'll take the bottom two Warsaw & Winker Watson for that. 3.05 The Ascot Oaks with All My Loving & Dalvina bringing the Epsom form to the race. The latter didn't handle the track or the ground there, no reports yet of overnight rain but they are expecting some heavy showers later. She should be more at home here & can run more to the form in the Pretty Polly FTO which would give her a decent chance here. All My Loving was third in the Oaks to Light Shift & was also behind the same horse in the Cheshire Oaks. The others have yet to show that level of form but I feel she could be there to be shot at today. Silkwood is chucked in the deep end after two runs on the aw & a win in a minor Sandown handicap LTO, missed the Oaks because of the soft ground & not sure that this trip will suit Shorthand was behind Passage of Time in the Musidora FTO, the form from that has not been franked & she has quite a bit to find. Cosmodrome has been supplemented for this. After winning a nothing maiden on the aw she then went to Goodwood for the listed race that used to be the Lupe. Stayed on well to win that & looks like this 1m 4f will suit & she is a fair price to upset the favourite. Bet Cosmodrome 20pts @ 6/1 Stan James 3.45 Yeats won this last year & if running to that form would win this pulling a cart. He had sergeant Cecil 8l+ behind in fifth & even though he's improved again even at 8yo it's a big ask. Yeat's has not been the easiest to train though & only had one run as a 3yo & he's flopped a few times including at 2/7 last season. Could be a bit more robust as he's got older but he's still not one to have the mortgage on for me. He also holds Geordieland from the Goodwood Cup & Sergeant Cecil beat him LTO in the Yorkshie Cup & he's 5lb worse off today. Lord Du Sud would need it really soft to win. Allegretto won the Lancashire Oaks last season but her form tailed off after till winning the Henry II at Sandown in first time blinkers, will they do the trick again today? Montare is very consistant but seems to be an Autumn type with all six wins after September, however the key to her is the ground, she's much better om fast going & most of her defeats even in the Summer have been with some cut. Two runs this season will have her spot on & if the grounds stays similar she can run a big race. Bet Montare 10pts @ 20/1 Bet365 4.20 Artimino could be a blot on the handicap for last years winners Fanshawe & Spencer but he's a short price in a big field. Instead I'll go with Ekhtiaar who looked progressive last season & was nearly brought down at Epsom on his one start this season but ran on well at the death. He has a nice draw in 27 & the trainer knows what it takes to win this having scored four times in the race before. Bet Ekhtiaar 20pts @ 12/1 Coral 4.55 Al Shemali brings the 2000 Guineas & Dante form to this. He was 9l behind Cockney Rebel at Newmarket & 5l behind Authorized at York. This is a fair drop in class here but he may have been a little flattered by those runs. Kid Mambo is another dropped in class after his decent seventh in the Derby, that looks a fair run but take the winner out & how good is the form? Zaham is going the other way & steps up from handicaps. front runner who like most Johnston types can take some passing, repected but a skinny price. My old mate Chinese Whisper runs again & made no show LTO in the French Derby. Before that usefull form in two French Group 3's would would put him in with a good chance here. In his early races he was raced much more prominent & I'm hoping they try the same tactics today as with Duke of Marmlade in the St James Palace. Last chance for him at a big price. Bet Chinese Whisper 10pts @ 18.0 Betfair 5.30 Mark Johnston has a fine record in this with three of the last five winners. Of his three today I'll take Record Breaker who fit the profile for this & is another of those that front runs & looks hard to get past. Bet Record Breaker 20pts @ 9.0 Betfair Placepot Warsaw, Winker Watson Cosmodrome Montare Artimino, Ekhtiaar Chinese Whisper Record Breaker Four lines @ 1pt = 4pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 No return from yesterday on what was a difficult day so an 84pt loss. Most of the selections ran decent races but I was none too impressed with the ride Peslier gave Montare getting her boxed in on the rails & hampered as they turned into the straight & then switching left & then right again. Stakes 1038pts Returns 1130pts P/L +92pts Ante-post stakes 60pts Ante-post P/L -30pts Heavy showers forcast for today but the ground should still ride on the fast side of good unless theres a monsoon. 2.30 The favourite has a nice draw on the far side of the middle & should go well. Janina ran well at York but she's got stall 1 which is not ideal. A leave alone race this. 3.05 The Ascot Derby & Lucarno (4th) Salford Mill (6th) & Yellowstone (8th) bring the Epsom form here. The rest have been running in much lower class than these three & would need a huge improvement on anything shown so far. Lucarno ran a decent race in the Derby running on at the same pace over the final 2f. Only seven days before that he'd won a Newmaket listed contest by 3 & 1/2l from Supersonic Dave but the time was nothing special & the runner up has been well beaten twice since including yesterday behind Zaham here. Salford Mill also won a Newmarket listed race before his tilt at Epsom, again the Form was nothing special. Before the Derby there were big doubts as to how Salford Mill would handle the track & the ground which had a bit of juice. He was well back turning for home but ran on best through beaten horses & will be more at home on this track today. Yellowstone ran a similar race to Salford Mill at Epsom & was another 2l back. Fair run in the 2000 Guineas & at Leopardstown after but looks a place at best for him. Salford Mill can reverse form with Lucarno & is a stand out 11/2 with Sporting Odds. Bet Salford Mill 50pts @ 11/2 Sporting Odds. 3.45 The key to this is usually the three major European 1000 Guineas. Finsceal Beo ran in all three taking the Newmarket & Curragh races but getting nabbed on the line in France to spoil a unique hat-trick. The best of these runs was the first at Newmarket & despite the win & close second she did not run up to the form of the first race after. Given she's had three hard races in a short space of time she may well need a break & would have to run up to her best to win today. Darjina was the filly who caught Finsceal Beo close home in France. That was only her third start & she is likely to improve again & she can frank the form. Mi Emma is also three from three. She's won her last two by 9l, including the German 1000 (Group 2) & the second there took the German Oaks by 5l after. That form is not as strong as the other fillies but German racing is improving all the time & she can upset the big two here. Bet Mi Emma 50pts @ 5/1 Betfred. 4.20 Road to Love returned to form LTO at Goodwood & will make the usual bold bid from up front that the Johnston horses so often do. Imperial Star was a head behind in that Goodwood race & the pair meet on the same terms so it should be close again. Heaven Sent won a mile handicap on the straight course here & then was a close second, also over a mile in a Group 3 at the Curragh. Clearly going the right way but is wacked up 17lb since that Ascot win & first try at 10f today. Emirates Skyline has obviously had some problems & didn't appear as a 3yo till the middle of September with a good second behind Blue Ksar whos shown decent form at listed/Group 3 since. Found the ground too soft on his only other run last year at York in a minor conditions but returned there this season to win his first handicap off 97 in pleasing style. Up 6lb for that but that looks fair enough & he can take this before going on to a higher level. Bet Emirates Skyline 50pts @ 5/1 Betfred. 4.55 Apart from Consulate who won a 2m handicap at Leopardstown LTO all this lot have been running at quite a bit shorter than this. Mahler won two minor stakes in the Spring, one over 12f but was out of his depth in the Derby LTO. This is much easier & he should go well today. Mark Johnston has a fine record in this with four wins from seven runners. Hearthstead Maison has some decent form the pickof that is probably the 4l second in the Lingfield Derby trial. Third to Lucarno in that Newmarket listed race over 10f mentioned earlier after that & he should go well also. The one I like though is Johnston's other runner Serengeti who won a Goodwood handicap by 7l LTO & with a break of 48 days since looks to have been kept fresh for this. Plenty of stamina in the pedigree & he can land this for Johnston again. Bet Serengeti 50pts @ 9/2 VCbet. Not a race to get too heavily involved in. Pride of Nation missed the Hunt Cup due to the ground & is well drawn in 25 but will the going be that much better for him today? Wise Dennis has his trip & is a C&D winner but he's up 8lb since that & needs things to fall right for him. Uhoomagoo looks to be returning to form & won this last year & is 3lb higher, another that needs the cards to fall his way. Trafalgar Bay also has course form & looks to like this 7f will suit, another that needs luck in running but is only a 4yo & is open to improvement with a decent draw. Worth a small bet at a fair price. Bet Trafalgar Bay 10pts @ 25/1 Betfred. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Bit of a bloodbath yesterday. After watching the first race I was telling myself I ought to bail out & lay them all off but thats not the way I play, I take the early prices & if the ground goes so be it. Apart from Salford Mill the other three main bets were still showing positive vibes & just the one winner would have had me in front on the day. Anyway still in profit for the week. Stakes 1248pts Returns 1130pts P/L -118pts Ante-post stakes 60pts Ante-post P/L -30pts The gound is now quite testing especially on the round course with more showers forecast. No interest in the first. Scorpion will like the ground better than Maraahel but is too short for me to play. 3.45 Miss Andretti was most impressive on Tuesday & a run to that form would see her home here. However 15 of her 17 wins have been on good or faster ground, the two wins on soft were in a much lower class than this. Also she goes well fresh & when she has been beaten it's when running again within a week or two. I'm happy enough with the bet on Takeover Target who was 2 & a half lengths back on Tuesday, seems to need at least 6f now & may not have been fully wound up for the Kings Stand but sould be spot on for today. The slight worry for him though is the ground, he's yet to win on softer than good but he's only had three runs on ground with cut & has not been beaten far. The best of ours are probably Assert & Amadeus Wolf. Assert looks like he would need it fast but the ground should be just right for Amadeus Wolf. Good form in Group 1's all last Season without getting home in front but made a pleasing return in the Duke of York & will improve for that run. Stall 7 is not the greatest draw but he can edge over & he will be sure to be running on at the death. He's worth a bet as well. Bets Takeover Target 30pts @ 9/1 Boylesports, ante-post Amadeus Wolf 30pts @ 8/1 Ladbrokes. 4.25 Looking for a 4/5yo thats won at the trip, has not had too many runs this season but has shown some recent form, a top half draw & has a touch of class. The one for me that fits the bill is Intrepid Jack. Two runs this season will have him spot on. Good run over 5f at Kempton LTO & this step back up in trip will suit. Steve Drowne who's been doing the going with Willie Carson all week will know where to have him in the race from stall 23. Bet Intrepid Jack 30pts @ 12.0 Betfair. 5.00 Looking for something thats in the first half dozen in the betting, placed LTO & has won over the distance. Scriptwriter ticks all the boxes & most importantly he has soft ground form & is nicely bred being by Sadler's Wells out of a Shirley Heights Mare. Had his problems but won a listed handicap on return this season & a break of 36 days since will have him right for this. Bet Scriptwriter 50pts @ 9/2 Bet Direct. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 I've been scratching around for something at a price for the Royal Ascot comp & landed on this Saville Road in the Wokingham. It fit the stats as a 4yo & it's got a decent draw in 25 but it hasn't run for ten months. It has though won FTO both as a 2yo & a 3yo & has been quite highly tried, beaten just over 6l behind Amadeus Wolf in the Gimcrack & 9l behind Jeremy in the Jersey at this meeting last year. This will be it's first run for the stable & Eric Alston does quite well with other peoples cast offs. Most of the bookies have it around 50/1, Sporting Odds go 100/1 & the ever generous William Hills are 33's. Betfair though have it at 130.0 & as they say if you don't buy a ticket you can't win the lottery. Bet Saville Road 5pts @ 130.0 Betfair Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 A hit the crossbar day yesterday. Takeover looked the winner all through the last furlong, even Aussie Jim thought he'd done enough but he emptied out right on the line & got done a head. The reverse happened in the Wokingham with Intrepid Jack looking like he'd come to nick it but the other one found that bit more. After two near misses I needed Scriptwriter but having taken the Bahri route under the trees & having to be ridden to hold a position out there he had nothing left in the tank in the straight. Stakes 1358pts Returns 1130pts P/L -228pts Ante-post stakes 60pts Ante-post P/L -60pts The total stake for the meeting was 769pts & the return 890pts so a 121pt profit less the 30pt ante-post bet = 91pts. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Newcastle 3.20 Testing ground here & a race with some usefull trends including what seems to be a draw bias towards low numbers despite last years winner coming from 16. More important is the running style, the winner last year got to the front & it's no good been low drawn if it's a hold up type. Only one winner carried over 9st although quite a few have placed & on todays going every pound will count. Having dumped those with 9st+ I'm left with a shortlist of those drawn in single figures that race up with the pace of, Odiham, Macorville, Mceldowney & Dr Sharp. Odiham's had a few tries at these valuable staying handicaps including last twice in this off 2lb & 4lb higher than today, best effort of those when just over 3l behind Sergeant cecil two years ago. Only one win on turf but is three from five at 2m+ on the aw. Macorville has had one try at 2m at Ripon two runs back & was 6th but that was on fast ground & the key to this one looks the going. All four wins have come with cut with two of those on heavy including a win over 1m 5f at Hamilton off 2lb higher than today. Ony a 4yo with scope to improve & stable won this last year. Mceldowney looks a bit exposed for this & has done most of his winning at around 12f, none from seven at 2m+ Dr Sharp is another who needs it soft & three runs this year have been on fast. Won off todays mark & trip at Newmarket last September on good to soft & good 3rd in the Cesarewitch off a pound lower before. Two bets here on the soft ground horses. Bets Macorville 30pts @ 10/1 Coral, last evening. Dr Sharp 15pts win. 5pts place 28/1 William Hills. Newmarket 3.35 Munaddam is obviously improving but all his form is on fast ground & on two goes with cut he's been well behind. Mine goes on soft but no wins at group level although did win a Haydock listed race LTO with Beckermet & Golden Jubilee winner Soldier's Tale behind. Welsh Emperor loves the ground & has won at Group 2 & 3 the best of those last August beating Jeremy over todays trip at Newbury. Gets his ground & trip for the first time this season & can be hard to peg back. Major Cadeaux won on soft FTO as a 2yo & took Greenham at Newbury FTO this year. Found a mile too far & ground too fast in the 2000 Guineas & pulled out at Ascot last week due to the fast ground. Trip & going spot on but has a 5lb pen for the Newbury win & unlikely to be allowed his own way up front today. Bet Welsh Emperor 30pts @ 9/1 Betdiect. Curragh 3.45 The older horses don't look up to this & the Classic form can prevail. Peeping Fawn is improving in leaps & bounds & followed a fine third in the Irish 1000 with a second in the Oaks coming from quite a way back to look like the winner 2f out but was just held by Light Shift. This 10f should be spot on, the track will suit & she goes on the ground. West Wind is also improving & won the French Oaks LTO so she will also have no bother with trip & going. Just a feeling that the French race was not the strongest Group 1 & Fallon can continue on the comeback trail here. Bet Peeping Fawn 50pts @ 5/2 Paddy Power. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 After the Plate I had the feeling it was going to be another one of those days, another one caught on the line. I'd like to see the photo it took them plenty long enough to call the winner. Can't complain though, if they all ran as well as Macorville I'd be happy enough. Welsh Emperor ran alright but Peeping Fawn & Fallon pulled the day round for me, I do miss him. Staked 130pts, returned 175pts, +45pts today. Stakes 1488pts Returns 1305pts P/L -183pts Ante-post stakes 60pts Ante-post P/L -60pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Finally the ground dries up a bit, back into the mix. Newmarket 1.30 The progressive one here looks to be Spice Route. Won a maiden at Haydock over 12f & then took a fair handicap at York dropped back to 10f. Back up to 12f LTO at Royal Ascot in a Group 2 where he was held up & didn't get the best of runs but was doing his best work at the death. The step up to 1m 5f should suit as should the track, the one negative is the jockey who often likes to showboat & get up late, if he gets him in the right place in the field Spice Route can take this listed prize. Bet Spice Route 50pts @ 9/4 Sporting Odds. 2.00 A strong looking renewal of this Group 2 with Royal Ascot form on offer. Winker Watson took the Norfolk over 5f with Spirit of Sharjah about 2l back in third. A Group 2 penalty means he has to give all these 3lb but he should be ok with the step up to 6f, the stable is not quite in the same form as a few weeks ago though. Fat Boy also ran at Ascot in the Windsor Castle also over 5f & was doing his best work at the finish. Step up to 6f will suit & he is not out of this. The form I like best is the Coventry run of Swiss Franc who finished best of all to grab second 3/4l behind the current ante-post favourite for next years 2000 Guineas Henrythenavigator. He looks to be going the right way & can make best use of the 3lb the top one has to give away. Fat Boy is a big price on the exchanges & is worth a small bet with the stable in good form. Bets Swiss Franc 40pts @ 5.6 Betfair Fat Boy 2.5pts win & 2.5pts place @ 100.0 & 14.5 Betfair. 2.35 A big field of 3yo handicappers Man of Vision went off too quick over 12f at Ascot LTO but looked progressive before that & drop back to 10f should not be a problem. Black Rock is going the right way & broke his duck LTO over this trip at Sandown. On a fair mark & should go well. Ekhtiaar is one of two for Gosden who usually does well in this type of race. Fair form in fifth on both starts in valuable handicaps this season & should be there abouts again. I like the other Gosden runner though, Pipedreamer who won the same Ponty hadicap LTO as last years winner of this Formal Decree. Liked the step up to this trip & looks most progressive & goes on fast ground. Bet Pipedreamer 30pts @ 6/1 Betfred. 3.10 Sixties Icon sets the standard here but has a 5lb pen for his St Leger win & that makes it hard. Looked like a good season was in order when defying the Group 1 Pen in the Jockey Club at Newmarket FTO but flopped quite badly in the Coronation Cup at Epsom after that which leaves him with a bit to prove here. Ivy Creek has returned this season from back trouble & won his last two both listed races quite well. Before that though was held at Group 3 level & would look to have a bit to find here. The interesting one is the 3yo Lucarno. At first glance 3yo's don't look to have a good record in this with only two winning in the last 10 years but only nine have tried. Lucarno's form also looks pretty good especially his Derby fourth, second to Boscobel at Ascot after is not quite as good but the ground was softer that day & the fast surface will suit better today & he can make the most of the 18lb he gets from Sixties Icon here. Bet Lucarno 40pts @ 9/2 Sporting Odds. Rio.

[writeups]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 May i ask what value is a Pt stake...??

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07

May i ask what value is a Pt stake...??

This question can be taken in more ways than one but I assume you are asking me how much I'm staking. To put the stakes as points or £/p has been discussed on the forum before with most prefering to use/read points. The main reason is that this allows the reader to view a post without being swayed by the size of the stake be it small or large. I have read your threads with interest, it's nice to see someone who takes the time to put the reasoning for his bets. I see also you have taken some of the advice from the regulars, such as keeping it all in one thread & a profit/loss update. I suspect however that if you continue to post with large money stakes that a few will start to have a pop, such is the nature of the green-eyed beast & it is for this reason that I prefer to keep the value of my stakes to myself. I wish you all the best, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Not a good day yesterday with a 165pt loss. Spice Route looked as if he might win but would not go through the gap on the rails, I suspect he would not let himself stride ouit fully on the fast ground. Swiss Franc found every bit of bother he could in his race. Pipedreamer ran ok but Lucarno disappointed & looks like he needs a break now. Stakes 1653pts Returns 1305pts P/L -348pts Ante-post stakes 60pts Ante-post P/L -60pts Newmarket 2.35 Mine tries to win this for the third year in a row & fourth overall, he looks as good as ever but this is a big ask off 108. Wokingham form usually takes a hand in this & Intrepid Jack was second there but this stiff 7f may not be to his liking. Something was fourth & all his three wins have come at this trip including one on the Rowley course on fast ground. However I like Grantley Adams for this. He was fifth in the Wokingham keeping on well at the death from not the best of draws & he also stumbled at the start. He's only a 4yo & looks open to further improvement & he goes on any ground. Bet Grantley Adams 30pts @ 10/1 Betfred. 3.10 Dutch Art & Sander Camillo drop back from a mile here but both have a little bit to find for me. Dandy Man could have two Kings Stand's in the bag with a bit more luck, he looks best at 5f & may find this stiff 6f too far. Bentley Biscuit was last in the Kings Stand & must go better here but he would seem to need a bit of cut. Soldiers Tale got up to nick the Golden Jubilee but he also is better with some cut. Asset ran a blinder on ground too soft for him in that race & on faster going he can turn the tables. Sakhee's Secret is the hype horse, three from three this season & won a listed race at Saisbury LTO beating the Free Handicap winner Prime Defender by 4l. He could be anything but this is a big jump in class & I'm sticking with the Group 1 form. Bet Asset 40pts @ 6/1 Bet365. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Another disappointing show yesterday, especially from Assert. Stakes 1723pts Returns 1305pts P/L -418pts Ante-post stakes 60pts Ante-post P/L -60pts Having just finished a 12 hour night shift my bed calls so I'll keep this brief. The John Smith's Cup usually requires a low drawn younger horse that races up with the pace & can handle the going. The pin alights on Avoriaz whose trainer Richard Fahey runs five in this & the horse won nicely on his first run for him at Ayr three weeks ago. Bet Avoriaz 25pts @ 12/1 Ladbrokes. Rio. :zzz

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 It's taken me a few days to get round to this post after the events of the weekend. I don't mind getting beat if I get a run for the money but when the horse I've backed walks out of the stalls & refuses to race, well I'd best keep my thoughts to myself. Stakes 1748pts Returns 1305pts P/L -443pts Ante-post stakes 70pts Ante-post P/L -60pts I was most impressed by Peeping Fawn's win in the Irish Oaks, it looks like she will clash with Light Shift again in the Nassau at Goodwood, if the French Filly Mandesha, Nannina, Silkwood & Speciosa all turn up it would be a real treat. However I'm looking a little further ahead, the Exchecker column in the Raceform Update was asking this morning whats happened to the Arc winner Rail Link? It seems he's stained a tendon & will not race this season. This got me looking at the ante-post market for this years Arc which has Authorized as the favourite with Zambezi Sun & Soldier of Fortune next best. Not all the bookies have Peeping Fawn in their lists & she is a best price of 16/1 & a general 12/1. She is though trading at 60.0 on Betfair & is worth a small bet at those odds. Should she run a good race at Goodwood the obvious route would then be the Yorkshire Oaks & surely then she would go to Longchamp, we shall see. Bet Peeping Fawn 10pts @ 60.0 Betfair, Arc. Rio.

[Woodie]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Is this true about Rail Link? I was under the impression he will make his reapperance later in the month and will be aimed at the breeders cup turf? Is this 100% he is out of the season?

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 I suspect that if I keep waiting for the ground to dry out then that will be it for the season, if this is the shape of things to come in the years ahead then God help us. Anyway I'm generally looking for something that will handle the conditions. Ascot 3.10 Gosden has taken Tybalt out of this, probably because of the ground but the draw in 2 may also have been a factor. The horse is reported to be off to the States after Goodwood so he may try to get a win into it before it's shipped out, if he is to go to Goodwood he's not entered for anything on the first three days. Of the rest Ea ran a fine second in the Britannia but was only midfield behind Tybalt at Newmarket after. Only raced on fast ground & looks better suited to a mile. Al Khaleej looks progressive but is another who may be better on a faster surface & a longer trip. The one with soft ground form is Gongidas who's won his last two including on soft LTO. The form is nothing special but he is going the right way & as an unraced 2yo he's clearly needed some time. The big worry is the tendancy to hang left but he's got the first time visor on to help & is worth a bet here. Bet Gongidas 30pts @ 7/1 Paddy Power. York 3.15 A weak looking Group 2. The Group 1 form is all from Eagle Mountain who ended up dumping Fallon on the floor in France LTO after clipping heels. Before that he was a well beaten third in the Irish Derby on this sort of ground. His best run was the staying on late for second at Epsom but the Derby form is not working out that well again & he might find this trip a bit sharp round here. Bin Suroor runs two. Stage Gift was with Stoute last year & looks to hold Mashaahed from last backends win on good/soft in a Newmarket Group 3. Didn't do much in two runs at Nad Al Sheba in the Winter but took a Longchamp Group 3 LTO over this trip on Good. Bit to find for me. The interesting one is Winged Cupid who was second on his last start at 2yo on heavy ground in the 2005 Racing Post Trophy & then missed the whole of last season. Returned with a win in a mile listed event at Windsor on soft, showing a nice turn of foot to beat the consistant Babodana 4l. Looks sure to like this step up in distance & goes on the ground & he can outspeed Eagle Mountain here. Bet Winged Cupid 50pts @ 3/1 Betfred. Ascot 3.45 As noted by others elsewhere the profile for this is a young progressive type & with the Bunbury Cup form important. Thid Set is the one who didn't come from that race but won a big field mile handicap on the July course LTO but he looks to have been drawn on the wrong side here. Four of the first five from the Bunbury are in here & there shouldn't be much between them again. King of Argos gets the plum draw against the far rail & with Dettori booked to ride & freshened up after his whip ban he's the one for me. Bet King of Argos 30pts @ 10/1 Sporting Odds. Ascot 4.20 Again not the strongest looking King George, no 3yo's again & the trend now seems to be a mid season break before an Autumn campaign. On fast ground Dylan Thomas would look the one but he doesn't look as good on soft, the run in the International at York last season looks especially against him. He also didn't look like he was that keen LTO when beaten by Manduro here over 10f hanging in behind. Scorpion & Maraahel meet for the third time this season here & the score is one each with Maraahel making full use of the 5lb Group 1 pen Scorpion had to give him over C&D LTO. If Maraahel gets a soft lead here he could keep enough in hand to steal this & Richard Hills is always better riding from the front. Of the rest Laverock, Sergeant Cecil & Youmzain don't look good enough but the German raider Prince Flori is interesting. A Group 1 winner in the Fatherland he goes on this ground & stays the trip. The 2l third to Mountain High with the top class Mandesha in second is a usefull piece of form & the stiff finish on this ground ought to be right up his street. Bet Prince Flori 20pts @ 12/1 Bet365. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 No return from Saturday & I decided to have a few days off after, I was not best pleased with the ground conditions at Ascot. Before the first TV race Jimmy Fortune said the ground was good & good to firm in the straight, indeed the only softish patch was in Swinley bottom & the King George was run 1.89 seconds faster than the Racing Post median time. As I take early prices I was already on but is it too much to ask that the course could change the going during racing for the punters that bet just before the off? Still it's only the 21st Century given time they'll get round to it. Stakes 1878pts Returns 1305pts P/L -573pts Ante-post stakes 70pts Ante-post P/L -60pts It would seem we have genuine good ground at Goodwood with the false rail removed there is a fresh strip on the far rail. 2.50 Desert Lord has a 10lb pen for a Group 1 win & Tax Free a 5lb pen for winning a Group 3 which would make life difficult for both. Celtic Mill won the Temple stakes two years ago but as not gone on since & won racing alone LTO. The Tatling is not the force of old & the rest look like handicappers upped in grade apart from the 3yo's Prime Defender will probably find this 5f on the sharp side & this looks between Wi Dud & Enticing. Wi Dud will like conditions today, looked like landing a Sandown Group 3 LTO till Hoh Mike sprouted wings. Ran well in the Molecomb over C&D last year where he lost out to Enticing in a head bobber on the same terms as today. Enticing looked to be going places when bolting up FTO at Bath in a listed race. Ran a good race, finishing well in the Kings Stand after that but flopped a bit in an Ayr Listed race LTO. The ground may not have been fast enough that day & on this Sharp track on todays ground she can bounce back, the stable is in fair form as well. Bet Enticing 50pts @ 7/2 Paddy power. 3.25 geordieland probably deserves this after looking like landing the Yorkshire Cup & a good second to Yeats at Ascot & in this last year. Not the most straightforward though & has not won for two years & never in this country with all five wins in France. Distinction would be interesting if he were fully fit after injuring a tendon in last years Gold Cup but conections are not making the right noises & Ryan Moore is on Allegretto. Allegretto should find this trip better than LTO in the Gold Cup when she raced keen & faded early but she can get wound up before racing. The one I'm having a go with is Tungsten Strike who also faded in the Gold Cup but 2m 4f is too far. Ran a good third in this last year & is 3lb better off with Geordieland for about 3l. Hopefully Holland can dictate the pace from up front & keep a bit back for the finish. Bet Tungsten Strike 20pts @ 19.5 Betfair. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 I've just spent a fair amount of time on a post which has now vanished because I wasn't logged in even though I was. I'm not about to do the whole thing again so this will be a bit more condensed. Nothing from the last bets. Stakes 1948pts Returns 1305pts P/L -643pts Ante-post stakes 70pts Ante-post P/L -60pts Nassau Stakes. A cracking race in prospect with five Group 1 winning fillies. Mandesha is not quite in the same form as last year & Speciosa may not handle the track. Nannina would look to need a stiffer track & a mile. Round three between Light Shift & Peeping Fawn. If Peeping Fawn had handled the track better at Epsom I think she would have won the Oaks but she stumbled early & got a fair way back. Two good wins since & turned the form round with Light Shift in the Irish Oaks LTO. No reason why she shouldn't handle the ground today & she'll do for me. Bet Peeping Fawn 100pts @ 11/4 Totesport. Stewards Cup Using the Trends I've arrived at a similar shortlist to most. The last two runnings have gone to horses with 9st+ & the best of todays looks like Balthazaar's Gift, he can grab a place. I can't believe that nobody from the Fanshawe yard was at the draw where conections could choose the stall, Zidane should go well but a rail draw would have been better. Knot in Wood won a decent Hamilton Handicap LTO, I just get the feeling that he could be better giving weight away at a lower level. Viking Spirit has course form & was boxed in here two runs back, won LTO & looks to be improving. Bets Viking Spirit 30pts win 20pts place @ 12/1 Coral. Baltharzaar's Gift 20pts place @ 3.7 Betfair. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Finally a profit on the day, Viking Spirit was out with the washing but Balthazaar's Gift ran well to be just out of the money. What can I say about Peeping Fawn? In front a little too soon but she still won in style from a top class field. Next the Yorkshire Oaks & then the Arc? Ladbrokes Quote her at !4/1 for next years Arc while declining to offer odds for this year. she is as short as 5/1 & around a general 8's & 10/1 While Coral go 14's & I have added to my interest on the race. Staked today 170pts, return 375pts, +205ps on the day. Stakes 2118pts Returns 1680pts P/L -438pts Ante-post stakes 100pts Ante-post P/L -60pts Bet peeping Fawn 30pts @ 14/1 the Arc, Coral. Rio.

[BillyHills]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Nice one Rio mate, best of luck in the Arc too!

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07

Nice one Rio mate' date=' best of luck in the Arc too![/quote'] Belated thanks to Billy for his good wishes. This is usually a quiet period for me, much of the action between Goodwood & York is low key but here we are with ever increasing speed at the Ebor meeting again. I'm going to York tomorrow so a few thoughts this evening so I can put up any bets tomorrow before leaving. The opener is a real pin sticker job where I could have a dozen goes & still get nowhere near. A young improver is what we need & the short list a this stage is Mull of Dubai, Wind Star & Galactic Star. I'll probably chuck these three in a placepot & see what I might have a few bob on at the track. Lonsdale Stakes This has deservedly rise from a listed contest to a Group 2 over the last few years. Sergeant Cecil took this last year & is the current public favourite flat horse, however he has a bit to find for me here. Good form in the Spring but a big flop in the Gold Cup was followed by a run in the King George where he was well out of his depth, has to give weight all round & needs a career best for me to score here. Distinction has yet to prove he is back from his injury but should come on from his return run. Anna Pavlova is consistant but looks the type to need kidding home & has yet to prove she gets this trip. Percussionist has good & bad form & looks a Spring type & the rest are just handicappers apart from Septimus. A classy winner of the Dante on this course in 2006 he then got jarred up in the Derby & missed the rest of the Season. He won a Curragh Group 3 on his return this season & ran a good race in the Coronation Cup afterwards when a staying on second to stablemate Scorpion. Given a nice break for this & the ground should be perfect, upped in trip but by Sadler's Wells out of a Darasaan mare he should relish the step up. I don't normally bet below 2/1 but I'm quite sweet on this & have taken the odds at Stan James. Bet Septimus 100pts @ 7/4 Stan James. Great Voltiger O'Brien has four of the nine. yellowstone seems to be improving for plenty of racing but the Eclipse form looks a touch flattering. Mahler looked most progressive up to the Derby run & won the Queens Vase after but drops back 4f. Lucarno looked like he'd had enough on his last run but has had a decent break. Boscobel is a typical tough Johnston sort but has to give these 3lb. A tough one to call & a leave alone race I think. Juddmonte International Another with many questions. The big one is the ground, I can't see it been fast enough for Dylan Thomas but enough cut for Authorized & Notnowcato? Will Asiatic Boy go on turf over 10f+? I quite like my old friend Duke of Marmalade, gets to race over farther than a mile at last & goes on the ground, Kinane up is a plus & has had a nice break. Pity theres only seven runners but he's still worth an ew bet. Bet Duke of Marmlade 10pts ew @ 16/1 Totesport. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Just a small bet on Galactic Star this morning to add to last nights bets, time to go for the train. bet Galactic Star 25pts @ 7/1 Totesport. Rio.

[bowles10]

Re: Rio on the flat 07

Just a small bet on Galactic Star this morning to add to last nights bets, time to go for the train. bet Galactic Star 25pts @ 7/1 Totesport. Rio.

Given a nice break for this & the ground should be perfect, upped in trip but by Sadler's Wells out of a Darasaan mare he should relish the step up. I don't normally bet below 2/1 but I'm quite sweet on this & have taken the odds at Stan James. Bet Septimus 100pts @ 7/4 Stan James. Rio.

2 nice winners there Rio :ok

[RussP]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Absolute quality, Rio:clap:clap:clap Well done mate.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 Thank you Gents, a good day yesterday with stakes of 145pts returning 475pts for a 330pt profit. Things went even better at the course but that would be after timing, suffice it to say that I was a bit wobbly last evening. Stakes 2263pts Returns 2155pts P/L -108pts Ante-post stakes 100pts Ante-post P/L -60pts On to day 2 but with the feet up in front of the box. Another fiendishly difficult opener & I'm looking for a young improving type. Heaven knows returns from a year off & could be anything but is a skinny price. Great Hawk & River Tiber both have plenty of weight here. Font is consistant & won LTO but this is a step up on form shown. Big things were expected of Greek Well at one time but he looks to have reached his limit & will be difficult to place now. Players Please has winning form only on the aw but has run two good races from his last three on turf in a couple of valuable handicaps. Only two & half lengths behind the useful Pipedreamer at Goodwood LTO he looks quite progressive & is a fair price for a small bet. Neil Callan with a rare ride for Johnston is a plus. Bet Players Please 20pts @ 14.0 Betfair. Ebor Again I'm after a young progressive type. Scriptwriter let me down at Ascot but then bounced back at Goodwood. Gets in off the same mark plus a 4lb pen here & was upped 8lb for that win so is 4lb better than for future races, still has a big weight though. Purple Moon is the horse I backed ante-post last winter for the Triumph hurdle but that didn't come off & back on the flat with Cumani who has a good record in this. Good win in a listed race at Goodwood LTO & looks on a fair mark here but is a skinny price. The 3yo Honolulu has only had three starts but won a Limerick listed race LTO despite running green & wandering around when hitting the front. O'Brien doesn't run many in handicaps here but won this with a similar type in Mediterranean in 2001. Well bred sort who is a general 12/1 for the St Leger & can run a big race today. Tranquil Tiger is the other 3yo. Got in a state before his last run & could get wound up before the race today. Decent run before that in a Newmarket listed race though & if behaving before could go well. Ogee is another with the right profile, found 2m on soft at Ascot too far LTO but won at around todays trip in a small field handicap at Goodwood before. At the right end of the handicap & the stable knows how to win this plus the jockey is red hot at the moment. Bets Honolulu 20pts @ 12.0 Betfair. Ogee 10pts @ 21.0 Betfair. No bet in the Yorkshire Oaks but I'm hoping Peeping Fawn wins well to boost the ante-post Arc bet. Silkwood beat All My Loving 5l in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot & Peeping Fawn had All My Loving 5 & 1/2l back in the Irish Oaks. A strict reading of that form would have not much between them but I'll be disappointed if Peeping Fawn can't take this in style. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 07 No return today but it was a tough card. Players Please ran ok but Ogee was too free in a first time visor, if everything ran as well as Honolulu I'd be happy & the first two there look Group 3 class at least. Peeping Fawn scored in style but the forms been crabbed a bit by the Racing Post ratings chap. She looked pretty good to me & you can only beat whats in front of you. Connections are making the right noises about the Arc & if it looks like the usual soft ground they must put her in the race. Stakes 2313pts Returns 2155pts P/L -158pts Ante-post stakes 100pts Ante-post P/L -60pts I'm working tomorrow but have had a look at the card. I'm not one for these 2yo sales races & the mile handicap looks imposible. I've had a good look at the Nunthorpe & given good ground Dandy Man ought to come close to winning the big prize he deserves but I just get the feeling he's one of those that can always find some bother. Amadeus Wolf seems to have lost the plot following his good win FTO. Moorhouse Lad looks to have improved for a change of stable but could have been flattered by the win at Goodwood LTO. Red Clubs should run his usual good race & find one or two too good. Reverence doesn't look in the same form as last year & needs it soft. The 2yo at the bottom could make them all go, still a maiden from only two runs but close seconds at Royal Ascot & Glorious Goodwood. The 2yo's get a huge weight for age allowence but it's been 15 years :eek since Lyric Fantasy won as a 2yo although only three have tried in the last ten years. I quite like Hoh Mike for this, ran some decent races at Group 2/3 level as a 2yo & has won a listed race & a Group 3 At Sandown LTO & he seems to be going the right way. The ground should be perfect & he likes to come off a fast pace & they won't be hanging about here. The draw in the middle means he can go wherever he wants in this & Jamie Spencer is riding more like a champion jockey elect than Frank Spencer as he's done in the past at the moment. Tried to get the 11/1 at Coral but they've gone to sp now but I've had a small bet with Betfred at 10/1 which is a fair price. Bet Hoh Mike 20ts @ 10/1 Betfred. Rio.