'Barebear's football laying system'

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' g'day barebear. did i get the calculations correct? what do you reckon?

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

g'day barebear. did i get the calculations correct? what do you reckon?

Your calculations look fine to me. I'd still like to have a look at your spreadsheets though (the up to date ones) if thats ok? Some of the leagues look like a distinct possibility for a good return next season. :ok

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' the two excel files are too large to attach here. i will send you them BB. one allows you to change the pre comission profit that you want to win, the other lets you change the %bank that you want to win. i have added the conference to only one of them, but have not updated the summary tables. what do you think? :) i am still dubious as to why it works well in some leagues (spain, spl, prem, neth div1) and not in others? surely this is cherry picking the data set to suit the output? any ideas?

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 12 May 07 Falkirk v Dundee Utd - Lay Falkirk (2.0) Matched at 2.26 ICT v Dunfermline - Lay Dunfermline (2.25) Matched at 2.68 Motherwell v St Mirren - Lay Motherwell (2.37) Matched at 2.64 Liability = 21.51 per lay Total Liability = 64.53 :hope

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' check your email for the slimline versions bear. what do people think of the stats?

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Got them Mate. There's a fair bit of info in there, but it'll take me a few days to get to grips with it all. Thanks for the good work. I hope to combine the historically most profitable leagues and use a suitable staking plan with real readies next season. Even after all the deductions, it looks like a very profitable, reliable system. As I said earlier in the thread, if it were a betting system, I think there's a chance that the bookies would notice and tighten up, but as it's a laying system, we are reliant upon the betting public to 'demand' better odds on the exchanges. This is the reason I believe the system is reliable and will perpetuate. With a bit of luck! :clap

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Amazing work Muppett77. Must have taken you hours. And very interesting reading. Barebear, I wonder whether the yields that Muppett77 shows would improve significantly if you only selected games when it was the away side with lower odds? This supposition is based on a very small sample - in fact just the 34 matches you've put up here! Away side lays: 1 loss out of 9 bets, Home side lays: 7 losses out of 25 bets. Not sure whether you could test this easily, Muppett77, over a longer period but it'd be interesting to see what would happen. Clearly there'd be many fewer wagers each season (saving a lot of work) but the yield and thus potential profit might be greater. What think you?

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' cheers chris001. once i had made a template sheet, all i had to do was paste in the games and odds from footy-data. thi stook the time. dead easy to tweak, once it's made, but unfortunately there is not a significant difference between the H and A lays. the prem and spain increased their yield marginally, but the spl was actually in loss.

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Thanks for the swift reply, muppett77. Oh well - teach me not to attempt to build castles in the air from pitifully small amounts of data! Cheers, chris

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' no probs chris. i'm still unsure as to why some leagues show profit and others do not. it seems as if we are narrowing down th edata set to show where there is profit. if the odds on betfair are as close to 'true odds' as we can get, then why would blindly laying selections show a profit? just trying to spark some discussion. :clap

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Mmm. I see what you mean when you say the odds on BF are as close to 'true odds' as we can get - Wikipedia like. But apart from not having a built in overround (except the commission) the prices on BF, just like entries in Wikipedia, are driven by human prejduice, greed and fear. Isn't that why the odds on the big boys (Man U, Australia) are nearly always less attractive than their real chance? Gonna do some horses now. Back later Chris

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' BF historical data can be found here http://data.betfair.com it has got LOADS of data. you can only download a week at a time. it is very heavy to trawl through and find the sport, then the league, then the date, then the match, then the market, then the club, then the most commonly matched price. i still think our approximation is fine. i looked up a couple of matches around 2.30 from the spl and the actual odds were +/- 0.02

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 1. Falkirk v Dundee Utd - Lay Falkirk (2.0) Matched at 2.26 :eyes 2. ICT v Dunfermline - Lay Dunfermline (2.25) Matched at 2.68 :) 3. Motherwell v St Mirren - Lay Motherwell (2.37) Matched at 2.64 :) 1. -21.51 2. +12.16 3. +12.46 Total Profit = +3.11 Bank = 218.29 Profit = +128.29

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 13 May 07 Portsmouth v Arsenal - Lay Arsenal (2.4) Matched at 2.48 Sheffield Utd v Wigan - Lay Sheff Utd (2.0) Matched at 2.32 Watford v Newcastle - Lay Watford (2.37) Matched at 2.68 Blackburn v Reading - Lay Blackburn (2.0) Matched at 2.08 Liability = 21.82 per lay Total liability = 87.28 :hope

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Not the last lays of this season as there are still some SPL fixtures to bring more profit.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 1. Portsmouth v Arsenal - Lay Arsenal (2.4) Matched at 2.48 :) 2. Sheffield Utd v Wigan - Lay Sheff Utd (2.0) Matched at 2.32 :) 3. Watford v Newcastle - Lay Watford (2.37) Matched at 2.68 :) 4. Blackburn v Reading - Lay Blackburn (2.0) Matched at 2.08 :) Liability = 21.82 per lay. Yee-Haaaaaw - Another good day for the system. :nana 1. +14.00 2. +15.70 3. +12.33 4. +19.19 Total Profit = +61.22 Bank = 279.51 Total Profit = +179.51

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' excellent work mate. :ok

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

Not the last lays of this season as there are still some SPL fixtures to bring more profit.

...and another 4 rounds of spanish fixtures if you want them!

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Fantastic Barebear. Another great result. But like muppet77 I wonder why? Where does the edge come? Is it simply that as most punters tend to follow the crowd (fear and greed) favourites end up shorter on BF than they should and outsiders longer? But then why the difference between leagues? Do we suppose that Italian, German and French punters on BF behave differently from British ones? And then again how do you explain the Champions league's negative yield? A puzzle. Like Muppet77 said it'd be good to get a debate going. Chip in guys and gals chris

[sparxxx]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' I work at a bookies and had the odds & results of every weekend for the scottish prem, english prem, championship, div 1 & 2, so decided to test your system on these results dating back to december the 15th 2006. i also included cup matches, the results were as follows in terms of winning bets WIN || LOSE 8 - 2 21 - 10 11 - 8 20 - 7 20 - 9 10 - 16 16 - 6 19 - 10 17 - 9 7 - 6 9 - 15 14 - 7 18 - 9 8 - 2 11 - 10 13 - 10 TOTAL BETS = WIN 222, LOSE = 155 This was enough to make a profit without any kind of selective betting just purely laying the favs out of the two teams with odds above evens. laying 13/10s produced the most winners although obviously theres not as much profit to be made, when i have time il look closely to see if any league was better than others, although at first glance they all seem very similar, Im looking to start betting for real on this system as of next season so am gonna keep an eye on this thread :D

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Has anyone got anything to add to the discussion about why barebear's wrinkle works? It'd be good to find a logical explanation. From what Muppet77 says it appears there is little difference between away lays and home lays? But what are the different conditions between leagues that make one profitable and the next not? Any ideas?

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 19 May 07 Dunfermline v Falkirk - Lay Dunfermline (2.37) Matched at 2.88 St Mirren v ICT - Lay St Mirren (2.2) Matched at 2.54 Laibility = 27.95 per lay Total Liability = 55.90 :hope

[Matthew]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' As you will see from my previous posts, i've taken an interest in this idea. I do have one question though................why stick rigidly at evens? Indeed why use Ladbrokes as the bookies to have to ascertain if a game is a qualifier? I'll tell you why. I played around with the EPL and found that setting the HW criteria to be evens and AW criteria to be 1.7 then you will make more money than evens for both. I also took a further step and made sure that every bookies odds captured at football-data surpassed the criteria for HW & AW. Min(of all odds at footy-data) >= 2 for HW and min(of all odds at footy-data) >= 1.7 for AW. Since 2000 laying to make £10 (£9.50 after commision) and using the maximum available odds from footy-data as my proxy for lay odds you would have achieved the following:

2000	£393.00
2001	£50.01
2002	£162.31
2003	£157.17
2004	£153.50
2005	-£114.20
2006	£145.50

Profit of £947.29 from 1066 lays. Now I observe the discussions made about how to best proxy the betfair odds, and i agree with Muppet77 that trawling betfair historical data is no fun task for anyone. So I leave it there with the max odds as my proxy - as wrong as that is. I conclude from what I have done that yes there is money to be made but is £947 over 7 seasons worth it?? It is if you can afford to ramp it up and stake to obtain £95 post commision - but not every body can afford to lay to win this much across a number of games. Whats the answer, choose the most profitable league and stick with it? Thoughts....

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Some of the data would alter from league to league. PP, you found that the EPL would proffer better yields at level stakes if you took the away team at 1.7 as the selection criteria. This may alter as we back-test each league in turn. You alluded to this with your final question. I believe there is a vast profit to be gained from the combination of: 1. A combination of leagues with one bank and staking system. 2. Each league with differing selection criteria (bookies prices). 3. Experienced Betfair manoevers. However, I think we could head down the road of over complicating a simple system. There is a trade off between work and wages. How much time do we put into selecting bets, placing bets, and recording results? For the percentages we can clear, in a world where this is only ever likely to be a secondary or part time income, do you want a system where you need to put in another hour or two each day or fifteen minutes. Personally, I'm in the the camp where I can take a simple system like the one I've been running, tweaked however slightly, to generate a good profit over a long period, years, and feel satisfied with the achievement. If the above sounds shite, it's probably because I've had a few drinks. :beer I understand if you have the time to go ahead and find the best system out of the ashes of this idea, and if it's simple, I'll get on that bandwagon. Keep it coming folks. BB :clap

[Ghen]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Dunfermline v Falkirk - Lay Dunfermline (2.37) Matched at 2.88 St Mirren v ICT - Lay St Mirren (2.2) Matched at 2.54 :clap :clap :clap Well done Barebear :clap :clap :clap

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Cheers Ghen :ok 1 Dunfermline v Falkirk - Lay Dunfermline (2.37) Matched at 2.88 :) 2 St Mirren v ICT - Lay St Mirren (2.2) Matched at 2.54 :) Laibility = 27.95 per lay 1. +14.12 2. +17.24 Profit on the day = +31.36 Bank = 310.87 Profit = 210.87 :nana

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 20/5/07 - Last bet of the system for this season! Aberdeen v Rangers - Lay Aberdeen (2.37) Matched at 2.38 Hibs v Celtic - Lay Celtic (2.0) Matched at 2.28 :hope These bets are exactly the results I'm hoping for anyway ;), Rangers to win and Celtic to lose. :lol

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 1. Aberdeen v Rangers - Lay Aberdeen (2.37) Matched at 2.38 :eyes 2. Hibs v Celtic - Lay Celtic (2.0) Matched at 2.28 :) 1. -31.08 2. +23.06 On the day = -8.02 Bank = 302.85 Profit = +202.85 Having started the system in April, I feel that there's a bit of dubiaty hanging over this short test. It does point out that there is merit in using this staking plan. I'm going to spend a bit of time (despite saying that I wasn't prepared to do that :unsure ) trying to work out my plan for next season where I'll be starting with real cash. All comments, advice, criticism, etc. accepted with gratitude. Also thanks to everybody who contributed over the past few weeks. Here's hoping for a good season 07/08. :ok

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' I'm still trying to engender a discussion here about why barebear's observation works. And especially about the question muppet77 raised - why does it work with some leagues and not others? We are laying the favourite in a match where the price of both teams is evens or greater as determined by Ladbroke's layers. This is a blind lay with no account being taken of whether that team is playing Home or Away. Why is this profitable? Presumably the edge come from us laying a favourable, from our pov, and often wrongly underpriced favourite coupled with a good s/r from the combination of the draw plus an underdog win. Loking at Muppet77s Win 15 units chart (entry #117) profitablity does appear to correlate with a high s/r and low av odds. All the profitable leagues had an s/r above 60% except for Netherlands which only had an s/r of 57.9% but which had the lowest of all av odds at 2.32. Leagues which had both low strike rates and high av odds all produced a loss. Germany with the lowest s/r of 57.6% and the highest (least favourable) by far odds produced the biggest loss. Much the same sort of pattern can be seen in muppet77's entry #119. But it's all pretty knife edge though. Can anyone work out the magic ratio of odds and s/r needed to make a profit? And in practice how long into a season would you need before you could establish both sufficiently accurately? Of course you could look at the previous year's stats but apart from Spain which recorded no losing seasons every other league would have resulted in at least 2 losing years over the past 7. I guess my question is: Can this realistically be a practical system to follow? Please come back and disagree. I really do want to be persuaded that I'm talking rubbish! Chris

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' I guess no-one's looking at this thread at the moment?