'Barebear's football laying system'

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 21 Apr 07 Dunfermline v Dundee Utd - Lay Dunfermline (2.37) matched at 2.62 Inverness CT v Motherwell - Lay ICT (2.0) Matched at 2.32 Spurs v Arsenal - Lay Arsenal (2.5) Matched at 2.76 Fulham v Blackburn - Lay Fulham (2.2) Matched at 2.44 Watford v Man City - Lay Man City (2.37) Matched at 2.7 West Ham v Everton - Lay West Ham (2.37) Matched at 2.7 17.61 liability per lay Total liability = 105.66 Fingers crossed for another good day :hope

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 1. Dunfermline v Dundee Utd - Lay Dunfermline (2.37) matched at 2.62 :eyes 2. Inverness CT v Motherwell - Lay ICT (2.0) Matched at 2.32 :eyes 3. Spurs v Arsenal - Lay Arsenal (2.5) Matched at 2.76 :D 4. Fulham v Blackburn - Lay Fulham (2.2) Matched at 2.44 :D 5. Watford v Man City - Lay Man City (2.37) Matched at 2.7 :D 6. West Ham v Everton - Lay West Ham (2.37) Matched at 2.7 :eyes A 50% strike rate yesterday, so an overall loss I think, let's see. 1. -17.61 2. -17.61 3. +9.50 4. +11.61 5. +9.84 6. -17.61 -21.88 on the day. :sad Current Bank = 154.23 Total Lays = 18 Total Profit = +54.23 Still a decent profit even after my first very bad day. :ok Next Liability = 15.42 per lay.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 22/4/07 Aston Villa v Portsmouth - Lay Villa (2.1) Matched at 2.24 Total Liability = 15.42 :hope

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 1. Aston Villa v Portsmouth - Lay Villa (2.1) Matched at 2.24 :D 1. +11.81 Current Bank = 166.04 Total Lays = 19 Total Profit = +66.04

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 28/04/07 1. Man City v Villa - Lay Man City (2.2) Matched at 2.46 2. Middlesbrough v Tottenham - Lay Middlesbrough (2.5) Matched at 3.0 3. Portsmouth v Liverpool - Lay Liverpool (2.0) Matched at 2.62 4. Wigan v West Ham - Lay Wigan (2.2) Matched at 2.38 5. Dundee Utd v Inverness CT - Lay Dundee Utd (2.0) Matched at 2.3 6. Motherwell v Falkirk - Lay Motherwell (2.2) Matched at 2.26 Each lay is liable for 16.60 pts. Total Liability = 99.60 :hope I have been thinking about different ways to stake and work the bank. I thought about using seperate banks for the Scottish and English leagues. The way I'm doing this does not differentiate between the two markets. I'll maybe review that for next season.

[SecondSight]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' BB Boro/Spurs Spurs are favs on Betfair by a decent margin!

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

BB Boro/Spurs Spurs are favs on Betfair by a decent margin!

Oops - Spurs won anyway, so that's a loser then. I rushed that post, so apologies for the mistake. :eek Anyway - 1. Man City v Villa - Lay Man City (2.2) Matched at 2.46 :) 2. Middlesbrough v Tottenham - Lay Middlesbrough (2.5) Matched at 3.0 correction:eyes 3. Portsmouth v Liverpool - Lay Liverpool (2.0) Matched at 2.62 :) 4. Wigan v West Ham - Lay Wigan (2.2) Matched at 2.38 :) 5. Dundee Utd v Inverness CT - Lay Dundee Utd (2.0) Matched at 2.3 :) 6. Motherwell v Falkirk - Lay Motherwell (2.2) Matched at 2.26 :) 1. +10.80 2. -16.60 3. +9.73 4. +11.42 5. +12.13 6. +12.51 Total Profit today = +39.99 Current Bank = 206.03 Total Lays = 25 Total Profit = 106.03 :nana:nana Happy With That :nana:nana

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Bank Doubled in less than a month by the way. ;)

[Matthew]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Alex, Great effort so far.......... Where did you get the idea for this little system you got going? Cheers Matt

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

Alex, Great effort so far.......... Where did you get the idea for this little system you got going? Cheers Matt

Matt, I have been tinkering on and off with systems for a few years. I tried a few backing systems, but never really found any outstanding value anywhere. I worked in the local independant bookies about 12/13 years ago while I was at college and was gobsmacked with this really small shop's profit on a Saturday. He would typically bank over £20,000 pure profit from the one day's business. Ever since then, I've been looking at various markets where the bookie has the biggest margins. Football fixed odds seems to be the bookies most lucrative market with book %'s often as much as 140%. I may be preaching to the converted here, but since discovering this, I've looked into starting a business a few times but never really had the guts. So I have studied many different scenarios within football fixed odds, just randomly picking a niche market and studying 3 years worth of results. This is the first time I've tested one in real time rather than using backtesting. I'm not getting too excited about this, because I know how easily the lot could crash. The bad run of results will come. Hopefully that is when the proper staking system will do the trick.

[jackhulk]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Hey, well done so far Barebear, looking good :ok I'll be following with interest!

[Shreddie08]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Hi Alex, Like the idea of your system but tried working out the numbers etc and I can't work out how you get the profits and losses. Maybe I haven't fully understood how the system works. Do you have messenger or anything on which you would be able to explain it, since I'm keen on testing it out in some other leagues. Or if anyone else thinks that they could help explain to me would be much appreciated.

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Alex, great idea you have here. I'm following you with much interest.

Shreddie, if you look on the first page of the thread Alex explains what he is doing. I’m not sure what bit you don’t understand but maybe this will help. His liability on each bet is 10% in points of his current bank. He alters his stake in relation to the odds he can lay to keep his liability level. All matches on the same day have the same liability. The formula to find the stake is: stake = liability/(odds -1)

Example: liability = 10pts, odds available = 2.22 Therefore stake = 10pts/(2.22-1) = 10/1.22 = 8.20

Profit, if you win, is 95% of this. i.e. 8.20 x 95% = 7.79

At the end of each day he recalculates his liability for the next day based on the new bank.

Hope this helps.

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Alex, are you doing St Mirren v Dunfermline tonight? (2.25, 3.2, 2.75 lads) St Mirren's been drifting steadily on BF. Currently available to lay at a whopping 2.68. So maybe not!

[Shreddie08]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Cheers Chris get it now, Like the system Alex, going to give it a go in other league if you want to know my progress give me a shout.

[Matthew]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Bad news Alex, It wouldn't worked in the Belguim Jupiler during 2005/2006. No of Lays: 83 Profit: -£44.46 I've done this with the best odds available at the many bookmakers included in the data from football-data.co.uk. Not a perfect approximation for the odds at betfair - but the best I could do. Do you attempt to maximise the odds you get matched at Betfair? And the odds in brackets - are those the generally available bookies odds?

[Matthew]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Belgium Jupiler 2004/2005 No of lays: 89 Profit: -£36.36

[Matthew]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Success? Spanish Primera Liga 2005/2006 No of lays: 120 Profit: £138.76 Based on £10 liability across all lays. Spanish Primera Liga 2004/2005 No of lays: 104 Profit: -£4.29 Spanish Primera Liga 2003/2004 No of lays: 106 Profit: £16.81 That'll do for now I think.

[Shreddie08]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Trying out your system Barebear (hope you don't mind!) rather bad going for me yesterday! Newcastle couldn't really take any of there chances so Reading comfortably held on in the end to win 1-0. :sad Dunfermline beat St.Mirren away making it my only winner of yesterday. :clap Linfield scored last minute winner to beat Cork. :sad Braga beat Academica after Academica had a player sent off. :sad Was tempted by laying both Rostock and Sparta Prague which both would of come in. Better succes today lets hope! Like the system though Alex.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Thanks for the input guys - Chris - I missed out on that St Mirren Game last night, I'm slacking a bit now as we get towards the end of the season. That would have been another winner for the system :$ I can't include that one, though. Shreddie, glad you cottonned on, let us know how your backtesting goes - stay tuned :ok PlopPlop - Cheers for the graft you've put in. I never checked out the EPL even although I'm running the paper trail now. So that might be one ripe for backtesting. I'm sure that not all leagues will produce positive results, but will the staking plan make any difference? I was a wee bit wary about Spain, but it seems there's money in it too. :ok I think you're right though, best odds would be the closest comparison to exchange prices, but I'd still use Laddies as the selection criteria. If both teams are evens or above with them, then we take the best bookies odds as the matched price. Next assault on the system is on Saturday. I think if the Old Firm game is in the system, then my loyalties may be tested. How can I go against Rangers? Especially against them? ;) I may well just have been ostracized by loads of green and white punters. :lol Oh well, 'mon the Bears!

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

Newcastle couldn't really take any of there chances so Reading comfortably held on in the end to win 1-0. :sad

Were Reading favourites and above evens?

[Shreddie08]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' I'll let you know how it goes Alex, going to try and make a raid of the Italian Serie B this afternoon and maybe a couple of Scandanvian games. I hope for better success than yesterday hopefully!

[Shreddie08]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

Were Reading favourites and at odds above evens?

Reading were definitely favourites, evens exactly on bet365, but above evens on betfair.

[Matthew]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Three for you in the EPL this weekend Alex. Newcastle (2.20) v Blackburn (2.80) West Ham (2.10) v Bolton (3.00) Wigan (2.10) v Middlesbrough (2.87) (#.##) Ladbrokes Odds. All very likely in my book!!!!!!

[Matthew]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Barebear, Could you confirm to me that if you had stuck with 10pts liabilty per bet throughout the Scottish Prem 2005/2006 season you would have a profit of 166pts (there or thereabouts - I have used best odds across a number of bookies, mentioned previously) from 54 lays with your system. I'm not sure if I tested the leagues I posted above properly.......sorry about that. I can't get anywhere near your quoted figures for the 2004-2005 season: (10pt liability per bet) 78 lays; 23.7 pts profit. I'm fairly new to laying and how to set it all up in a spreadsheet etc.....but your system has captured my interest as I am impressed with where it came from, real-life experience.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Matt, maybe you've got a bit mixed up here. My staking plan was initially different from the one you've tested, I wanted to win 10pts from the punter on each bet, therefore my liability altered from bet to bet. You seem to have set the liability as 10pts per bet, therefore the punter's stake is altering. You can see my workings for the SPL on the link in post 3 of this thread. Obviously I have changed my staking plan since then. It may be a good idea to go through thoses seasons testing the new staking plan, but I think it'll be a long hard slog to do that, feel free to do so, though mate ;) I can see 4 selections from the EPL, the Liverpool game fits in. I'll get them up soon.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 1. Fulham v Liverpool - Lay Liverpool (2.2) Matched at 2.5 2. Newcastle v Blackburn - Lay Newcastle (2.2) Matched at 2.46 3. West Ham v Bolton - Lay West Ham (2.1) Matched at 2.2 4. Wigan v Middlesbrough - Lay Wigan (2.1) Matched at 2.22 5. Dundee Utd v St Mirren - Lay dundee Utd (2.1) Matched at 2.4 6. Falkirk v Inverness CT - Lay Falkirk (2.1) Matched at 2.52 Liability per lay = 20.60 Total Liability = 123.60 :hope I will not go against Rangers, I'm afraid so I'm leaving that out. Out of interest, Rangers are 2.25 at laddies and could be matched right now for 2.5. I'll just go downthe pub and watch this one without worrying about my system. ;)

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

Matt, maybe you've got a bit mixed up here. My staking plan was initially different from the one you've tested, I wanted to win 10pts from the punter on each bet, therefore my liability altered from bet to bet. You seem to have set the liability as 10pts per bet, therefore the punter's stake is altering. You can see my workings for the SPL on the link in post 3 of this thread. Obviously I have changed my staking plan since then. It may be a good idea to go through thoses seasons testing the new staking plan, but I think it'll be a long hard slog to do that, feel free to do so, though mate ;) I can see 4 selections from the EPL, the Liverpool game fits in. I'll get them up soon.

Thanks for putting up your new selections again. But like Matt I've got confused too now. I too thought you were working to a liability of 10 points (or 10% of the bank). See your post #6 when you wrote: "Staking Plan - Liability = 10% of current bank. Starting Bank = 100pts. All matches on the same day have the same liability." Again in #8 you give the results of four matches all calculated to a 10pt liability. 1. Dunfermline v Hibs - Lay Hibs - (2.1 Lad) 2.22 matched - 10pts 2. ICT v Falkirk - Lay ICT - (2.0 Lad) 2.26 matched - 10pts 3. Sheffield U v Newcastle - Lay Sheff U - (2.2 Lad) 2.5 matched - 10pts 4. Wigan v Bolton - Lay Wigan - (2.5 Lad) 2.74 matched - 10 pts. 1. +7.79 2. +7.54 3. +6.33 4. +5.46 Be glad if you could clarify. Many thanks. Chris

[Shreddie08]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Hi all, Just to let you know I'm testing this out for the major leagues in the world and some of the lesser leagues in europe. Hopefully to find the most profitable league for the system. Will give you results for today after all the results are in! But looks like there would of been lots of winners today. Shreddie

[Matthew]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

Hi all, Just to let you know I'm testing this out for the major leagues in the world and some of the lesser leagues in europe. Hopefully to find the most profitable league for the system. Will give you results for today after all the results are in! But looks like there would of been lots of winners today. Shreddie

I think we'd all be interested in seeing these..... Are you going to backtest in all the leagues you mention or are you just doing it for this weekend only?