Barebear Posted April 5, 2007 Share Posted April 5, 2007 Although there is value in betting red hot fav's in football, I believe I have found an avenue which may well be worth exploring more. Since I'm Scottish, I have only backtested the SPL for 3 seasons and have tried with a very primitive staking plan. I also must say that I used the odds from William Hills and Ladbrokes in the testing. The system is very basic too - Lay the FAV in a match in the SPL where the price of both H & A teams is evens or greater. That's it! The primitive staking plan I used is simply this - I want to win 10 pts from the punter on each bet. eg, If the game was Motherwell [2.1] V Hibernian [3.0] Draw [3.4], then I'd risk 11 points on laying Motherwell. If Hibernian win or it's a draw I take the 10 points stake. As I said, I back tested this over the past 3 whole seasons and the results in P/L were: Season 03/04 = +44pts Season 04/05 = +211.7pts Season 05/06 = +275.4pts Is there an appropriate staking plan which would maximise the profit? And here's a question to you if you fancy back testing it, will this work in other leagues? Will it be equally as profitable considering the adjustment to Exchange prices and also taking commission into consideration? Have I done enough testing? Thanks Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted April 5, 2007 Share Posted April 5, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's In order for others to answer , more imformation is needed. Number of bets per year, strike rate per year , aver winning odds. It looks to me , from your example that you took the fav's back odds as lay odds, in your example the price of 2.1 which is wrong. You have to 'combine' the other two odds to find your true back odds. Sorry I don't remember the calculation right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 5, 2007 Author Share Posted April 5, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's Thanks for the advice. I'll try to get a more comprehensive list of details about the system. Here's the spreadsheet to get a feel for what I've done already. http://files-upload.com/151218/spl0506layproofs.xls.html Back soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted April 5, 2007 Share Posted April 5, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's Will it be equally as profitable considering the adjustment to Exchange prices and also taking commission into consideration? Im afraid to say that the prices you can actually lay at the exchanges will be higher than those you have tested taken from Hills and Ladbrokes. :( I did a similar exercise a few years ago and thought I'd hit the jackpot but when I tested using actual prices the profit came right down and then when you account for commission too you are left with little or nothing. For prices you are talking about - ie 2.00 to say 2.50 at bookies, then in my experience the lay prices will normally be about 10-20% higher. The only way to know for sure though is to paper test it next season. Unless you know of someone who has betfair prices for the last 3 years? Good luck. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted April 5, 2007 Share Posted April 5, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's having just landed into the world of footballing lays, my experience aint great but what i would look at is are you betting on EVERY match that fits your criteria or are you betting only on matches you believe there to be value and that you have knowledge about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 6, 2007 Author Share Posted April 6, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's Hodgey - Looks like the paper trail's the way to go. I'll take in the EPL too just for curiosity. Aliando - I use all the bets that meet the criteria on any given match day. I'd appreciate a bit of help with all that yield, ROI, P&L stuff as all I've ever done is look at profit and loss through level stakes. Cheers. So here we go: Criteria - Lay the FAV in all matches in the SPL & EPL where both teams are evens or above with Laddies. Staking Plan - Liability = 10% of current bank. Starting Bank = 100pts. All matches on the same day have the same liability. 6/4/07 Dunfermline v Hibs - Lay Hibs - (2.1 Lad) 2.22 matched - 10pts liability ICT v Falkirk - Lay ICT - (2.0 Lad) 2.26 matched - 10pts Sheffield U v Newcastle - Lay Sheff U - (2.2 Lad) 2.5 matched - 10pts Wigan v Bolton - Lay Wigan - (2.5 Lad) 2.74 matched - 10 pts. Total Liability = 40pts I know there's a game tonight, but I'll just watch that one. for simplicity's sake, it starts tomorrow. It would have been a City lay by the way ;) :D :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeLions Posted April 6, 2007 Share Posted April 6, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's Should be interesting. And you would have had Man City as well with the draw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 7, 2007 Author Share Posted April 7, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's 1. Dunfermline v Hibs - Lay Hibs - (2.1 Lad) 2.22 matched - 10pts :D 2. ICT v Falkirk - Lay ICT - (2.0 Lad) 2.26 matched - 10pts :D 3. Sheffield U v Newcastle - Lay Sheff U - (2.2 Lad) 2.5 matched - 10pts :D 4. Wigan v Bolton - Lay Wigan - (2.5 Lad) 2.74 matched - 10 pts. :D 1. +7.79 2. +7.54 3. +6.33 4. +5.46 Total Profit Today = +27.12 Current Bank = 127.12 Next Liability = 12.71 per lay. Good start by any standards, eh? :clap The only one I had any real cash on was the lay of Sheff utd, so my couple of quid in the betfair account has just about doubled. Full card in the EPL on Monday, so I'll give it until tomorrow night to make the selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darren Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's Nice start there Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted April 8, 2007 Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's cracking mate - well done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 8, 2007 Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's Nice start Alex. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonix1001 Posted April 8, 2007 Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's 1. Dunfermline v Hibs - Lay Hibs - (2.1 Lad) 2.22 matched - 10pts :D 2. ICT v Falkirk - Lay ICT - (2.0 Lad) 2.26 matched - 10pts :D 3. Sheffield U v Newcastle - Lay Sheff U - (2.2 Lad) 2.5 matched - 10pts :D 4. Wigan v Bolton - Lay Wigan - (2.5 Lad) 2.74 matched - 10 pts. :D 1. +7.79 2. +7.54 3. +6.33 4. +5.46 Total Profit Today = +27.12 Current Bank = 127.12 Next Liability = 12.71 per lay. Good start by any standards, eh? :clap The only one I had any real cash on was the lay of Sheff utd, so my couple of quid in the betfair account has just about doubled. Full card in the EPL on Monday, so I'll give it until tomorrow night to make the selections. My suggestrion is to watch games live and lay theses teams that seems not be dominating the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 8, 2007 Author Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's Thanks guys. 5 bets for Monday. 9/4/07 Watford v Portsmouth - Lay Portsmouth (2.25) Matched at 2.54 Bolton v Everton - Lay Bolton (2.0) Matched at 2.38 Fulham v Man City - Lay Fulham (2.2) Matched at 2.4 Newcastle v Arsenal - Lay Arsenal (2.0) Matched at 2.3 Charlton v Reading - Lay Charlton (2.2) Matched at 2.34 12.71 per lay. 4 out of 5 would be out of this world, but 3 out of 5 is more likely. Any less and I'll be gutted. ;) :hope Sonix - I don't really have the time to trade, but if I get the chance, then thats what I plan to do. Cheers Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's 1. Watford v Portsmouth - Lay Portsmouth (2.25) Matched at 2.54 :) 2. Bolton v Everton - Lay Bolton (2.0) Matched at 2.38 :) 3. Fulham v Man City - Lay Fulham (2.2) Matched at 2.4 :) 4. Newcastle v Arsenal - Lay Arsenal (2.0) Matched at 2.3 :) 5. Charlton v Reading - Lay Charlton (2.2) Matched at 2.34 :) 1. +7.84 2. +8.75 3. +8.62 4. +9.29 5. +9.01 Current Bank = 170.63 :clap Long may it continue. No more bets until Saturday and it'll only be the English league as this is Scottish Cup week in Scotland. Has anybody backtested the EPL yet? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toffeeandy Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's doin great there alex, think ill follow this idea closely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munki Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's Brilliant start Alex :clap:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's Thanks guys - it looks like its one to watch eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's superb stuff mate!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 9, 2007 Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's Very very good start mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 11, 2007 Author Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Thanks for the changes guys. Much appreciated. More from the 100%er soon ;) Watch this paper trail go up in flames now I've said that. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted April 11, 2007 Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Looking good barebear! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 11, 2007 Author Share Posted April 11, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Cheers Rich :ok Possibly two bets for Saturday. Laddies have Middlesbrough (2.0) v Villa (3.2), and Sheff Utd (2.25) v West Ham (2.75). So I could be laying Boro and Sheff Utd. I take it these prices are subject to change, despite being known as fixed odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 12, 2007 Author Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Those are the bets for Saturday. So: Boro v Villa - Lay Boro (2.0) Matched at 2.4 Sheff Utd v West Ham - Lay Sheff Utd (2.25) Matched at 2.64 Liability = 17.06pts per lay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 14, 2007 Author Share Posted April 14, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 1. Boro v Villa - Lay Boro (2.0) Matched at 2.4 :D 2. Sheff Utd v West Ham - Lay Sheff Utd (2.25) Matched at 2.64 :( 1. +12.18 2. -17.06 Current Bank = 165.75 Total Lays = 11 Total Liability = 137.67 Total Profit = 65.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 14, 2007 Author Share Posted April 14, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 15/04/07 Wigan v Spurs - Lay Spurs (2.4) Matched at 2.52 Liability = 16.58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 15, 2007 Author Share Posted April 15, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 1. Wigan v Spurs - Lay Spurs (2.4) Matched at 2.52 :D 1. +10.36 Current Bank = 176.11 Total Bets = 12 Total Profit = 76.11 (includes 5% commission) :cow:clap:ok:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted April 16, 2007 Share Posted April 16, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Nice system :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 16, 2007 Share Posted April 16, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Very nice going so far BB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 16, 2007 Author Share Posted April 16, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Thanks folks. :ok No lays from Tuesday or Wednesday's English Prem fixtures nor is there any SPL fixtures, so it'll be Saturday before we see any action on this system again. I should be testing more leagues really. I think maybe the Spanish. But I don't want to combine that with this one, so it'll run seperately. I'll update that in due course. Watch this space. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 16, 2007 Author Share Posted April 16, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' No Primera Liga until Saturday either. :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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