'Barebear's football laying system'

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

Thanks for putting up your new selections again. But like Matt I've got confused too now. I too thought you were working to a liability of 10 points (or 10% of the bank). See your post #6 when you wrote: "Staking Plan - Liability = 10% of current bank. Starting Bank = 100pts. All matches on the same day have the same liability." Again in #8 you give the results of four matches all calculated to a 10pt liability. 1. Dunfermline v Hibs - Lay Hibs - (2.1 Lad) 2.22 matched - 10pts 2. ICT v Falkirk - Lay ICT - (2.0 Lad) 2.26 matched - 10pts 3. Sheffield U v Newcastle - Lay Sheff U - (2.2 Lad) 2.5 matched - 10pts 4. Wigan v Bolton - Lay Wigan - (2.5 Lad) 2.74 matched - 10 pts. 1. +7.79 2. +7.54 3. +6.33 4. +5.46 Be glad if you could clarify. Many thanks. Chris

Sorry for the confusion, I'll try to clear it up. I initially tested the SPL by trying to win 10pts per lay. The Punter's stake was always 10pts and my liability during those initial tests were variable. I changed the staking plan when I started this paper trail to a liability of 10% of bank per lay.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 1. Fulham v Liverpool - Lay Liverpool (2.2) Matched at 2.5 :) 2. Newcastle v Blackburn - Lay Newcastle (2.2) Matched at 2.46 :) 3. West Ham v Bolton - Lay West Ham (2.1) Matched at 2.2 :eyes 4. Wigan v Middlesbrough - Lay Wigan (2.1) Matched at 2.22 :) 5. Dundee Utd v St Mirren - Lay dundee Utd (2.1) Matched at 2.4 :) 6. Falkirk v Inverness CT - Lay Falkirk (2.1) Matched at 2.52 :eyes 1. +13.04 2. +13.40 3. -20.60 4. +16.04 5. +13.97 6. -20.60 Profit on the day = +15.25 Bank = +221.28 Profit = +121.28

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Good result today. Well done. Thanks for clearing up the staking plan confusion.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' No problem Chris I'm waiting for this purple patch to hit the wall, but it seems to be ticking along quite nicely. Shreddie, how's the testing going, mate?

[Matthew]

Re: Any advice greatly accepted - Laying football fav's

Thanks for the advice. I'll try to get a more comprehensive list of details about the system. Here's the spreadsheet to get a feel for what I've done already. http://files-upload.com/151218/spl0506layproofs.xls.html Back soon.

Alex - can you upload 0405 season? I've tried replicating it but I must be doing something wrong. Much appreciated if you can.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' http://files-upload.com/210917/spl0405proof.xls.html http://files-upload.com/210918/spl0304proof.xls.html

[Shreddie08]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Right, taken me a while but I have all the games since last Thursday that qualify at evens or over on Bet365. A Total of 174 games met the criteria. 104 Winners 70 Losers Success Rate 60% Here's a few selected stats from various countries. England Played 25 --- Winners 21 --- Success Rate 84% Scotland Played 6 --- Winners 3 --- Success Rate 50% Spain Played 33 --- Winners 14 --- Success Rate 42% Italy Played 16 --- Winners 10 --- Success Rate 63% Germany Played 12 --- Winners 7 --- Success Rate 58% France Played 10 --- Winners 6 ---- Success Rate 60% Interestingly all English playoffs game that have taken place in this time have come through as wins. The Finnish Kakkonen Leagues played 10 games producing 8 winners. I'm also trying to produce a rating system based on how close/far away the odds for both teams are and then seeing if there is any trends. The 4 games I picked from yesterday all came through having used my rating system to pick them, obviously will need alot more results to find any sort of trend but definitely some postives to take from it. Be interesting to see what you guys think of these results and especially whether you think a rating system is a good/bad idea? Shreddie

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' good stats shreddie, but % wins or 'strike rate' is not the best indicator. did you find out about profit/loss for each league? that's the real litmus test. even profit/staked = % yield keep up the good work and ideas guys! ;)

[Shreddie08]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Didn't work out a profit for leagues I have most the stats needed though to work it out so should be too much of a problem. Gives me something to do now! Any ideas for grouping or should I do it for each individual leagues? I have quite a few that I am testing.

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' done a bit of backtesting myself. i will just clarify the criteria that i used, to make sure that i did it correctly. english premiership 7 seasons including this one, back to 2000. using lads odds, home and away team odds BOTH >= 2.00 LAY favourite of the two. use the maximum price of all high street bookmakers to estimate the lay price on betfair. try to win 1% of the bank each bet. start bank each season = 100.

	ALL	0607	0506	0405	0304	0203	0102	0001
end bank	808.19	112.42	97.64	104.40	119.93	106.23	108.56	159.01
profit	108.19	12.42	-2.36	4.40	19.93	6.23	8.56	59.01
yield	7.6%	7.0%	-1.3%	2.1%	8.6%	2.9%	4.7%	26.3%
wins	608	79	76	86	100	88	86	93
bets	986	128	133	145	161	148	144	127
strike	61.7%	61.7%	57.1%	59.3%	62.1%	59.5%	59.7%	73.2%
av odds	2.35	2.35	2.38	2.38	2.32	2.36	2.32	2.35
liability	1423.80	176.28	188.17	205.66	231.63	214.40	183.68	223.99
ban inc %	15.5%	12.4%	-2.4%	4.4%	19.9%	6.2%	8.6%	59.0%

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' and when trying to win 5% of the bank:

	ALL	0607	0506	0405	0304	0203	0102	0001
end bank	1631.28	151.01	73.72	101.32	200.87	110.52	124.36	869.48
profit	931.28	51.01	-26.28	1.32	100.87	10.52	24.36	769.48
yield	9.4%	5.8%	-2.7%	0.1%	6.9%	0.8%	3.3%	22.2%
wins	608	79	76	86	100	88	86	93
bets	986	128	133	145	161	148	144	127
strike	61.7%	61.7%	57.1%	59.3%	62.1%	59.5%	59.7%	73.2%
av odds	2.35	2.35	2.38	2.38	2.32	2.36	2.32	2.35
liability	9886.35	883.36	973.64	1061.40	1470.04	1300.63	731.48	3465.80
ban inc %	133.0%	51.0%	-26.3%	1.3%	100.9%	10.5%	24.4%	769.5%

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' and 10% of bank:

	ALL	0607	0506	0405	0304	0203	0102	0001
end bank	5739.35	146.08	33.62	60.87	234.80	72.53	94.23	5097.22
profit	5039.35	46.08	-66.38	-39.13	134.80	-27.47	-5.77	4997.22
yield	12.8%	3.1%	-3.5%	-2.2%	4.4%	-1.0%	-0.6%	18.2%
wins	608	79	76	86	100	88	86	93
bets	986	128	133	145	161	148	144	127
strike	61.7%	61.7%	57.1%	59.3%	62.1%	59.5%	59.7%	73.2%
av odds	2.35	2.35	2.38	2.38	2.32	2.36	2.32	2.35
liability	39407.27	1493.83	1873.73	1807.75	3095.46	2785.63	888.85	27462.02
ban inc %	719.9%	46.1%	-66.4%	-39.1%	134.8%	-27.5%	-5.8%	4997.2%

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Good work Shred. As Muppet says, I think the only relevant stat is profit/loss. The difficulty with the testing you are doing is that you can only really use level stakes as there is a wide variety of games involved. As you say, you need to start thinking about grouping of matches into leagues or specific patterns according to criteria (eg. bookies odds at 2.0 - 2.3, 2.31 - 2.6, 2.61 - 3.0 or something along those lines.) There are no correct ways to do this, so anything goes. I only arrived at this system by trial and error, so the more scenarios you conjure up, the more chance you have of hitting the bullseye.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Wow muppet, that looks like a top bit of back testing. The bottom line is that if we stick to the staking plan, there is a serious profit margin over time involved.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 7 may 07 1. Charlton v Spurs - Lay Spurs (2.1) Matched at 2.18 Total Liability = 22.12 :hope

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' did i get the criteria correct? championship looking not good though. think it may just be random noise. :sad why would it work in some leagues and not in others?

[Shreddie08]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' I quite like the sound of the odds grouping, as you said I'll try out a few combinations. You going to do the Charlton v Tottenham game tonight? Be quite interesting to see how the conference game turns out for me tonight, by my reckoning so far with playoff games it should be a winner.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

did i get the criteria correct? championship looking not good though. think it may just be random noise. :sad why would it work in some leagues and not in others?

You got the criteria spot on, but I'm afraid I've no idea of the reason behind the fact that it doesn't play out in all leagues. I'd appreciate any help or insight on that from some of the more knowledgable punters.

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' actually i take that back. the champ is all profit from the first 3 years, when the aim is to win 1% of the bank. will update in 5 mins.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

I quite like the sound of the odds grouping, as you said I'll try out a few combinations. You going to do the Charlton v Tottenham game tonight? Be quite interesting to see how the conference game turns out for me tonight, by my reckoning so far with playoff games it should be a winner.

Check post 75 above mate. ;)

[Shreddie08]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

Check post 75 above mate. ;)

Sorry mate was a bit slow onto that. Only problem I see with grouping it by odds is that I will still have the same problem of too many games going on at once unless keeping the stake consistent per bet rather than the 10% liability of bank.

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' to make 1% of current bank in championship:

		championship
	ALL	0607	0506	0405	0304	0203	0102	0001
end bank	764.38	105.77	100.75	121.80	88.71	115.59	126.01	105.74
profit	64.38	5.77	0.75	21.80	-11.29	15.59	26.01	5.74
yield	2.5%	1.6%	0.2%	5.5%	-3.1%	3.6%	7.0%	2.0%
wins	1050	149	157	157	151	157	157	122
bets	1794	258	273	259	271	265	258	210
strike	58.5%	57.8%	57.5%	60.6%	55.7%	59.2%	60.9%	58.1%
av odds	2.34	2.34	2.36	2.35	2.34	2.33	2.34	2.32
liability	2569.68	361.62	366.42	396.39	358.65	433.32	372.98	280.30
ban inc %	9.2%	5.8%	0.7%	21.8%	-11.3%	15.6%	26.0%	5.7%

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system'

Sorry mate was a bit slow onto that. Only problem I see with grouping it by odds is that I will still have the same problem of too many games going on at once unless keeping the stake consistent per bet rather than the 10% liability of bank.

here are results with 10% liability of bank. i suggest 1%.

		premiership
	ALL	0607	0506	0405	0304	0203	0102	0001
end bank	5739.35	146.08	33.62	60.87	234.80	72.53	94.23	5097.22
profit	5039.35	46.08	-66.38	-39.13	134.80	-27.47	-5.77	4997.22
yield	12.8%	3.1%	-3.5%	-2.2%	4.4%	-1.0%	-0.6%	18.2%
wins	608	79	76	86	100	88	86	93
bets	986	128	133	145	161	148	144	127
strike	61.7%	61.7%	57.1%	59.3%	62.1%	59.5%	59.7%	73.2%
av odds	2.35	2.35	2.38	2.38	2.32	2.36	2.32	2.35
liability	39407.27	1493.83	1873.73	1807.75	3095.46	2785.63	888.85	27462.02
ban inc %	719.9%	46.1%	-66.4%	-39.1%	134.8%	-27.5%	-5.8%	4997.2%
		championship
	ALL	0607	0506	0405	0304	0203	0102	0001
end bank	561.98	36.70	19.62	149.27	5.33	86.71	215.68	48.67
profit	-138.02	-63.30	-80.38	49.27	-94.67	-13.29	115.68	-51.33
yield	-0.4%	-2.1%	-3.9%	0.8%	-5.3%	-0.1%	3.0%	-3.1%
wins	1050	149	157	157	151	157	157	122
bets	1794	258	273	259	271	265	258	210
strike	58.5%	57.8%	57.5%	60.6%	55.7%	59.2%	60.9%	58.1%
av odds	2.34	2.34	2.36	2.35	2.34	2.33	2.34	2.32
liability	34177.81	2991.14	2048.21	6484.91	1793.54	15321.52	3905.65	1632.84
ban inc %	-19.7%	-63.3%	-80.4%	49.3%	-94.7%	-13.3%	115.7%	-51.3%

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' and this is 1%

		premiership
	ALL	0607	0506	0405	0304	0203	0102	0001
end bank	808.19	112.42	97.64	104.40	119.93	106.23	108.56	159.01
profit	108.19	12.42	-2.36	4.40	19.93	6.23	8.56	59.01
yield	7.6%	7.0%	-1.3%	2.1%	8.6%	2.9%	4.7%	26.3%
wins	608	79	76	86	100	88	86	93
bets	986	128	133	145	161	148	144	127
strike	61.7%	61.7%	57.1%	59.3%	62.1%	59.5%	59.7%	73.2%
av odds	2.35	2.35	2.38	2.38	2.32	2.36	2.32	2.35
liability	1423.80	176.28	188.17	205.66	231.63	214.40	183.68	223.99
ban inc %	15.5%	12.4%	-2.4%	4.4%	19.9%	6.2%	8.6%	59.0%
		championship
	ALL	0607	0506	0405	0304	0203	0102	0001
end bank	764.38	105.77	100.75	121.80	88.71	115.59	126.01	105.74
profit	64.38	5.77	0.75	21.80	-11.29	15.59	26.01	5.74
yield	2.5%	1.6%	0.2%	5.5%	-3.1%	3.6%	7.0%	2.0%
wins	1050	149	157	157	151	157	157	122
bets	1794	258	273	259	271	265	258	210
strike	58.5%	57.8%	57.5%	60.6%	55.7%	59.2%	60.9%	58.1%
av odds	2.34	2.34	2.36	2.35	2.34	2.33	2.34	2.32
liability	2569.68	361.62	366.42	396.39	358.65	433.32	372.98	280.30
ban inc %	9.2%	5.8%	0.7%	21.8%	-11.3%	15.6%	26.0%	5.7%

[Shreddie08]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Either of you guys have messenger, be good to go through some ideas with you with instant messenger rather than keep posting on the forum.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Sorry, I don't have any of that chat stuff, but I'm quite happy for all testing and opinions to be posted here. Infact the more the merrier as far as that goes.

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' yes mate i am. you can't receive PMs though.

[Barebear]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Can you guys please post any significant findings or results that your chat sessions produce on here? It'd be much appreciated. I'd like to start with real money next season, so It'll be good to be armed with all the relevant info/stats.

[muppet77]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' lets just pmail instead then. much easier. (or keep everyone in the loop by posting on here?)

[chris001]

Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Hi guys... amazing work you are doing. Thanks for sharing it. Speaking purely selfishly I'd be really grateful if you could keep things public on the thread or if not maybe you could post a digest here every so often. Thanks.