doublecee Posted June 2, 2007 Share Posted June 2, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Could be because everybody is trying to find out just why this system does work so well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted June 2, 2007 Share Posted June 2, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' yeah, i would love to believe in a system and also get soem understanding of WHy it works before going with it. i've done the stats backtesting with proxy odds, but can't work it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted June 2, 2007 Share Posted June 2, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' I think the answer to this could be more relevatn with the league-specific and not global odds. After all, every league in Europe has different rules and specifications (different style of play, variation in number of teams and home strength). Just a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' I totally agree with antoin114. The sample table below shows average home / draw or away win for different leagues for this year. The stat will change for each year. Certain leagues have a strong home win ratio. Certain league like Spanish Primera Liga this season is very well balanced between all teams. We can see 4 teams competiting for title and rest of the teams producing many surprises. I do believe differences in strength is minor. Almost any team can beat all other team for this season. Will similar trend continue for 07 / 08 Season? How helpfull is previous year data in simulating coming season. I hope many experienced punters will continue to contribute to this thread for coming season. Cheers :cheers CCLeague nameTeamsHome %Draw %Away %Under %Over %Avg GoalsAlbania 1st League1254.1722.423.4459.3840.632.34Australian A-League847.7823.3328.8950502.61Austrian Bundesliga1052.222522.7851.1148.892.74Austrian Red Zac Erste Liga1247.4725.2527.2742.4257.582.95Belarus 1st League1440.1123.0836.8157.1442.862.47Belarus 1st League 2007145030.9519.0561.938.12.21Belgian 2nd League1847.0624.5128.4346.7353.272.85Belgian Jupiler League185027.1222.8848.3751.632.79Brazilian 1st Campeonato2050.2625.5324.2150.2649.742.71Brazilian Campeonato 2007204522.532.537.562.53.03Bulgaria Grupa A1658.1913.7928.0247.8452.162.84Chile 1st League2151.9624.5823.4646.3753.632.89Croatia 1HNL1253.5418.1828.2843.9456.062.84Czech 2nd League1649.4923.4727.0455.144.92.36Czech Gambrinus Liga164532.0822.9261.6738.332.23Danish 2nd League1645.3327.127.5740.6559.353.04Denmark SAS Ligaen1242.9324.2432.8346.4653.542.8England - League Two2444.625.7229.6856.2943.712.49England League Championship2448.1122.0829.850.9949.012.61England League One2445.0624.9629.9854.7645.242.52England Premier League2047.8925.7926.3253.1646.842.45English Conference2443.2724.2432.551.3548.652.55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' As you rightly show, Unbelievable, each league is different. This is also plain from muppet77’s grids (#117 and#119) which show historical figures for several leagues over 7 seasons. A glance at the yield percentages and you can see which ones would have been the most ’profitable’ to follow. But for me the key question is how to take advantage of barebears insight from a practical betting point of view. muppet77 shows only one league (spl) having a positive outcome for every one of the 7 seasons he analysed. All the others had between 2 and 6 losers. All the leagues that had 4 or more winning seasons out of the 7 (prem, spl, spain, neth, div1) gave a positive yield. The best yielding over the 7 years was prem at 4.2% and 4.3% which had a positive seasonal strike rate of only 57%. Sp1 fares better with a seasonal s/r of 71%. Netherland and div 1 are the same as prem at 57%. Spain on its own has100%. Knowing all this, the practical difficulty for me is to do with mind set (and maybe size of bank!). I don’t know about you but I don’t think I have the patience or psychological stamina to go through a whole season, make a loss, and then be able to start up again with enthusiasm the next season using the same criteria. Spain appears to be the most consistent of the three top yielders (prem, sp1 and spain) although it has the smallest of yields at 3.9% and 3.4%. So is the best conclusion to follow spain or maybe all three of these? Or is the sample size of just 7 seasons too small to make any such rational deductions about the future? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' What about the permutation of losing seasons? Have the better performing leagues all lost in the same season? What is the potential danger? What is the maimum expected loss? Given this info, if the risk of loss is minimal then I think your rationale of following the three best (that previous seasons have suggested) leagues is perfectly sensible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparxxx Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Well as this thread looks to have about died thought id post a comment on the first day of the english season, leagues prem to league 2 on saturday would have gave you 30 bets based on corals odds, out of these bets 23 were winners. unfortunately i didnt take advantage :( I havent had a look at the bets this week, Im not gonna lay any for the carling cup though. will post any there may be for wednesday. For any1 who hasnt read the entire thread, both teams must be above evens. lay the favourite of the two teams not to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Good to see the beginnings of life again on this thread, spar. Look forward to more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparxxx Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Wednesdays lay bets are, fulham, wigan and birmingham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ken.yang Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' thanks for the 3 lay bets today. :ok but arent we suppose to get odds from Ladbrokes and WillHills? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arfurdaley Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' thanks for the 3 lay bets today. :ok but arent we suppose to get odds from Ladbrokes and WillHills? The odds from Ladbrokes determine who the teams to lay are. You then lay these teams on Betfair (usually at higher odds than Ladbrokes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparxxx Posted August 16, 2007 Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' I personally use corals odds, wasnt the best of days yesterday :( lots of potential games this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' I'm back, lads. Give me some time and I'll get the proper selections going again. No paper trail this time though. :hope :clap Here we go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted August 30, 2007 Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' :welcomeback barebear.......and the best of Luck:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted August 31, 2007 Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Looking forward to another profitable season :cow waiting for your selection barebear :ok Lets roll :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted August 31, 2007 Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' I still can't believe this is going to work due to the difference between the bookmaker odds you have tested at and the lay price on Betfair. :unsure However, I wish you the best of luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted August 31, 2007 Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' I'm going to spend a bit of time (despite saying that I wasn't prepared to do that :unsure ) trying to work out my plan for next season where I'll be starting with real cash. Not sure if you've got a staking plan set-up BB, and I don't know if this plan http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=18713.0 will work, but the proof is in the pudding .... £3,000 to £100,000 in a year ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted August 31, 2007 Author Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' OK, here we go. I'll be using real money with a starting bank of £100. System - Lay the FAV out of matches in the English Prem, Scot Prem and Spain Premira Liga, where Ladbrokes prices both teams above evens. Purely for sentimental reasons, I am avoiding the Old Firm. :$ Staking Plan - Lay a liability of 10% bank on each game which qualifies on any given day. Recalculate the Bank and next liability at the end of each days action. Matches - Saturday 1st Sept 07 Bolton V Everton - Lay Bolton 2.6 (2.37 at laddies) Fulham V Tottenham - lay Spurs 2.3 (2.25) Reading V West Ham - lay Reading 2.3 (2.1) Kilmarnock V Aberdeen - lay Kilmarnock 2.56 (2.25) Levante v Murcia - lay Levante 2.54 (2.25) Liability Per Bet = £10 Total Liability = £50 Please point out any games missed from the system if you spot it. Cheers :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted August 31, 2007 Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' System - Lay the FAV out of matches in the English Prem' date=' Scot Prem and Spain Premira Liga, where Ladbrokes prices both teams above evens.[/quote'] I've looked at the 'Football Data' downloads and I reckon Spain Primira Liga is a no-no!! Using the data from these files and assuming the Betfair LAY odds are no more than 15% greater than the SP odds in this files then, overall it's only the English & Scottish Prem. leagues showing an overall return ... the Spanish Premira Liga will be 8%, and then only showing a small profit. Don't know yet if the returns are 'localised' on a yearly basis i.e. good returns 1 year, lousy returns other years!!;) My posting at http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=54242 gives reasonable BF BACK/LAY odds when only the SP odds are known. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted August 31, 2007 Share Posted August 31, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted September 1, 2007 Author Share Posted September 1, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Thanks Thunderfoot. I was toying with the idea of maintaining just the SPL and EPL for simplicity. That might become the reality of the situation for this part timer. ;) So, what of todays games then? Bolton V Everton - Lay Bolton 2.6 (2.37 at laddies) :) +6.25 Fulham V Tottenham - lay Spurs 2.3 (2.25) :) +7.69 Reading V West Ham - lay Reading 2.3 (2.1) :) +7.69 Kilmarnock V Aberdeen - lay Kilmarnock 2.56 (2.25) :) +6.41 Levante v Murcia - lay Levante 2.54 (2.25) :) +6.49 Looking good guys. :ok Lays = 5 Wins = 5 Strike Rate = 100% Profit = 32.57 (at 5% comm). Bank = £132.57 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted September 1, 2007 Share Posted September 1, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Excellent first week, results speak for themselves. Well done Barebear:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted September 1, 2007 Share Posted September 1, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Levante v Murcia - lay Levante 2.54 (2.25) Not Played Yet 0 - 0 ..... 100% today :clap:nana:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 2, 2007 Share Posted September 2, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' 02/09 1900Getafe ?-?Huelva2.203.503.70 careful with this one - ladbrokes has Getafe at 1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted September 2, 2007 Share Posted September 2, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Great start BB :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 2, 2007 Share Posted September 2, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' yes well done BB. i think your stats for the season are: bets 5 wins 5 strike 100% profit +36.04 liability 50 yield +72% :clap i have a few stats for the season so far. admittedly they are not precisely all of the games required, as i had recorded the bookie and bf odds for something else. - games are from 18th aug to date - only from spl and epl, not spain. - only HOME FAV lays are included (i did not record the away odds) - ( i assumed if the home odds were >3.00 then they were not the fav) but anyway, it gives a flavour: bets 17 wins 13 strike 76.5% profit 6.71 stake 26.62 yield 25.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted September 2, 2007 Author Share Posted September 2, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Sorry I never got any of todays games guys. I'm not even sure if there were any. Busy boy today (and last night as it goes). edit - oops.... looks like the Blackburn game was one - thanks Thunderfoot. That would have been the first loser for the system if anybody is keeping a strict lookout. Sorry. Thanks for the words. I am plumping for EPL and SPL as I said. So, Game for Monday 3rd Sept- Motherwell v Hearts - lay Hearts, 2.98 (2.4) (price edit - 12.30pm) Liability per bet = £13.26 Total Liability = £13.26 I'll hang off until lunchtime tomorrow for this price. 3.05 at present, but only just over £1k traded at the mo. done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ken.yang Posted September 3, 2007 Share Posted September 3, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' hi Barebear, just wanted to ask if are u doing the Spanish Primera Liga or not? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted September 3, 2007 Author Share Posted September 3, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' hi Barebear, just wanted to ask if are u doing the Spanish Primera Liga or not? Thanks No I'll just be using the SPL and EPL. Not because of any major investigation, but simply because it makes it easier to apply the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted September 3, 2007 Author Share Posted September 3, 2007 Re: 'Barebear's football laying system' Price edited see post #178. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.