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Free picks frenzy


Player

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Friends, it's time to try something very different! ;) I'm cocqueting for a very long time with this idea, and I made a lots of observations about it, but never run it in an organised, systematic way like as I will try to do it now. The basic idea: Touts give free picks, and these free picks are usually very close, just with a bit lower strike/profit (or loss) rate that their paid (premier picks), over any stretch of longer period of time. We could use the free picks to build a progression based, multi-threaded system. As I could see, some time these touts hit very long winning streaks, but also inevitably, they can hit long losing streaks too - 8, 9 losses in row can happen any time to any of them. Task: to find some touts who give free picks very systemathically - each and every day, and only 1 per day possibly. Materialisation: I will use this web-site: http://freeplays.com/ They feature about 19 touts, all of them giving free picks in a very regular manner each and every day. Picks are posted latest every day until 12 PM EST time (this is 5 PM GMT), and except Saturdays and Sundays they have only 1 pick/day. Being all of them Americans, the picks are only on American sports. I will use just the first 10 touts from the list on the website, these are:

Mike Wynn -this will be thread 1
Platinum Plays - this will be thread 2
Razor Sharp -this will be thread 3
Totals4U - this will be thread 4
Big Time - this will be thread 5
#1 Sports - this will be thread 6
Computer Sports - this will be thread 7
Easy Money Sports - this will be thread 8
Nevada Sharpshooter - this will be thread 9
The Scout - this will be thread 10
(this list is copyed exacly from the site, as you can see, and they are the first 10 in exact order) As for now the system will be just PAPER TRAIL. I will begin with a bankroll of 1,102 units *, and will use it on 10 different threads, betting all the free picks of these 10 touts. If in a day they will have 2 picks, then I will have 2 plays inside a thread on that day. Each thread begins with a 10 unit bet, and after a win I will come back with the same 10 unit bet in the respective thread. If it's a loss in a tread, or multiple losses in row, the next bet will try to win back what was lost in the previous bet(bets). If 2 or more touts have head to head (contrary) picks or the same picks I will calculate the right amount to bet depending on each sequence doing a total of all of these bets on the same game. I will use just Pinnacle. The system will work well if in the same time not too many touts will hit long losing streaks on their free picks. But if this will happen, will be an unevitable total bankroll loss. I expect your comments and ideas how to improve the staking plan. Let the experiment begin! :dude :drums ----------- * - Modified on March 4 conform post no. 169, from the initially posted 1,000 units. ----------- To convert moneyline to decimal odds it depends on whether it's positive or negative. If it's positive, you divide by 100 and add 1. For example, +400 moneyline is 400/100 + 1 in decimal, or 5.0. If the moneyline is negative, to convert, first remove the negative symbol, then instead of dividing by 100, you take 100 and divide it by the moneyline amount, then you add 1. For example, -400 moneyline is 100/400 + 1 in decimal, or 1.25. Thanks to "slapshot" (see post no. 219)
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Saturday, Feb 10, Round 1

Total out = 100 units
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Saturday, Feb 10, Round 2

Total out = 40 units
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Saturday, Feb 10, Round 1 Results

Total: Bets =10, Won =6, Lost =4 Bankroll = +15.177 units
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Saturday, Feb 10, Round 2 Results

Total: Bets = 4, Won =2, Lost =1, Push =1 Bankroll = +8.425 units
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Sunday, Feb 11

Total out: 101.94 units
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Sunday, Feb 11 Results

Total: Bets = 10, Won = 6, Lost = 4 Bankroll = + 19.093 units
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Re: Free picks frenzy I'm sure player won't mind me answering these questions.

what it means total out 101.94 units
That is the total amount he staked on the bet selections. And
your last bankroll +42.695 in just these 3 days?
Yes the bankroll is +42.695 since he started this thread.
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Re: Free picks frenzy Thanks Aldric in responding to the question, yes, it's exactly as you said. So the +42.695 bankroll increase in units in 2 days it's not fantastic at all, just a normal increase, because it means that the initial bankroll of 1,000 units now stands at 1,042.695 units. Remember that te minimal bet is 10 units, not 1 unit.

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Monday, February 12

** For threads 1, 4 and 10, making a total, a single bet is placed: 21.60 units on: NCAAB: San Diego -9 -108 over Pepperdine *** For threads 2 and 8, making a total, a single bet is placed: 1.50 units on: NBA: Utah -8- 115 over Atlanta Total out: 74.654 units
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Monday, February 12 Results

** For threads 1, 4 and 10, making a total, a single bet is placed: 21.60 units on: NCAAB: San Diego -9 -108 over Pepperdine WINNER! Won = 20.00 units *** For threads 2 and 8, making a total, a single bet is placed: 1.50 units on: NBA: Utah -8- 115 over Atlanta WINNER! Won = 1.304 units Total: Bets = 7, Won = 5, Lost = 2 Bankroll = +27.306 units
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Tuesday, February 13


Total out: 125.253 units
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Tuesday, February 13 Results


Total: Bets = 10, Lost = 3, Won = 6, Push = 1 Bankroll = +3.256 units
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Re: Free picks frenzy

I'm starting to understand more thanx to Aldric and Player I guess This free picks frenzy starts to show good results.. it would be even better if you can keep the growth like this If I'm not mistaken your average ROI is 3-5% a day rite?
I have no idea yet what's the daily average ROI, because it's very early days. I think I will do a detailed analysis after the first 10 days will be completed - so far we had only 4. Thing is that some touts can go on a long losing streak, even 8 in row, and if 2 of them are doing that in parallel, that's very big danger to the system. If I will have that situation, maybe I will have to modify the staking tactics to avoid total bankroll loss. Let's see now when will get out threads 6 and 7 from the deep negative balance, they got in.
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Re: Free picks frenzy

Player, Will you be keeping stats on each of the pickers or do you think the guys having a good run now will have a bad run later and vice versa? Excellent start mate.
I'm keeping stats only on the full system, but when I establish the wager for the new bet on any of the treads, I can see how many losses in row have had the momentarily bad going threads, so the wager is so that in a case of win it will win back all what it was lost since the last winning bet. If a thread had a winning bet, than it's easy and quick... :lol , 'cause I'm not interested at all how many they lost/won in row before, I just put the new wager equal to 10 units. But to be more interesting, when I'll do the system statistics after the first 10 days or so, I will analyse each tout (thread) separately, but only as wins/losses/draws. Yes, as you say, IMO in the long run all touts will have good runs and bad runs too, so it will (should??) average somewhere around 51-58% hitting on each thread. One of the other variants I was thinking to use for the system before opening this thread was to consider all the touts on the web page, not just 10 arbitrary chosen, but to begin a thread on any of them only after they lost a pick, or they had 2 loser pick in row. But then we would miss on the ones going on good runs...
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Wednesday, February 14 (Day 5)

Total out: 174.038 units
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Wednesday, February 14 Results

Total: Bets =10, Won = 6, Lost = 4 Bankroll = +82.060 units
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Re: Free picks frenzy Thanks Sousa and bookie, but don't get over excited yet, only 5 days of trials is nothing to prove if this works or not in the long run. If you want to follow on some picks only, I would suggest a safer (or at least should be safer....) way, which is to follow a pick after you see that I'm with big wager on that play- this means that the respective tout lost already 3-4 in row, so logically sooner or later he should win one.

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Thursday, February 15 (Day 6)

* For thread 3 and thread 9 a single bet is made: 21.235 units on: NCAAB: St. John's -8 -107 over Rutgers Total out: 102.035 units
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