JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

NEWBURY 2.10 LOCKINGE STAKES Grp 1 8f --------------------------------------------- 12/13 were in the top 3 in the betting [ 9/1 and under ] 11/13 were 4 or 5 y-old 10/13 were making their seasonal debut 8/9 with a BHA rating were rated 114 + 11/13 have won at Grp 3 level at least , the last 5 have won Grp 1 11/13 have won at least 3 times Sir M STOUTE + GODOLPHIN have both won the race 3 times in the past 10 runnings. 15 winners of the Sandown [bet365] Mile have ran here since '86 but NONE have won . The market see's off ALEXANDROS , ATLANTIC SPORT , DREAM EATER , MAJOR CADEAUX , TARIQ and WINKER WATSON . The age factor is against PRESSING , while VIRTUAL may have some improvement still to come but has only won at Listed level . PACO BOY won the Sandown [bet365] Mile LTO so is discounted here. That leaves 3 to consider and the ground will be an important factor when making a final selection. AQLAAM will be making only his 4th racecourse appearance here .He has won a Group 2 [LTO ] when taking the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. His 2 wins have been on Good and G/F so it's win strike is below the preferred but with only 3 runs so far thats excuseable. Rated 113 and the stable is in fine form with 7 wins from 22 runs in the past 14 days. TWICE OVER comes from H CECIL'S yard and is a Group 2 / 3 winner but all his career runs have been on ground no softer than Good . Rated 119 it has ran to a place in the 2 Group 1's it has contested , 2nd in the Champion Stakes and 3rd in the St James Palace . Although he has never ran on soft/ G/S the impression i get from reading the trainers notes and RP report is that he wouldn't mind a bit of give , maybe G/S at worse . VIRTUAL is rated 113 and has won at Listed grade but never in Group company , however it has only ran once in Group grade and that was LTO behind Paco Boy at Sandown [ although the winners of that race have a poor record , 2 placed horses there have gone on to win this in the recent past] Even more significantly it loves the Soft with 3 wins from 4 on ground classed as Soft or G/S. I think the winner will come from those 3 but i'm going to delay making a definate decision until later tomorrow to see what the ground conditions are like.

Ok lets try to find the winner , there has been a further 3mm of rain overnight at Newbury so the ground will truly be Soft for Racing today . LOCKINGE - AQLAAM is no doubt a horse with much promise about him and could go on to be a force in Group company , but it's a tall ask to expect him to win this after only 3 previous trips to a racecourse , the minimum number of prev outings by a past winner in the past 10 runnings has been 6 . Obviously Wm Haggas would not be running him here if he did not think he was good enough but his inexperience could mean that he might not be too hard pushed to win as better things could lie ahead , imo ,especially on the rain-softened ground. In his favour is the fact that this is his seasonal debut. VIRTUAL is the only one of the three i short-listed who has proven form on the going so that won't be a problem . However it has ran only once in Group company when 3rd behind PACO BOY in the bet365 Mile on ground a bit firmer than he would have liked , i decent performance and he has the potential to pick up a Group race during the season but i think he might just lack the class needed to take this Group 1 today. 2 LISTED events are his best so far . TWICE OVER has never ran on anything softer than GOOD but twice Henry Cecil has been quoted that the horse would have preferred more give in the ground after racing [ 3rd behind TARTAN BEARER in the Dante and when 2nd behind NEW APPROACH in the Champion Stakes ] It's his win at Group 2 and those close placings in 2 Group 1's last season which catch the eye . It a slight worry that he has done most of his racing over further last season [has won twice over the 8f ] but if he takes to the soft going and he is surely fit after his 3rd LTO , although a previous outing that season has not been a positive over the years.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

2.05 Newbury 13f Listed ----------------------------- 13/13 were returned 8/1 or Under 11/13 ran in Listed/Group company LTO 10/13 were 4 y-olds 10/13 had ran within the past 3 months 9 of the past 10 winners had won over at least 11f [ 8 over 12f ] the odd one had only had 2 previous career outings [ won over 10f] We'll start once again with the market and that says that INVENTOR , MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR , SPANISH HIDALGO and UNLEASHED . GEORDIELAND was withdrawn from the Yorkshire Cup today because of the rain softened ground and i can't see the G/S at Newbury doing it any favours. Also being an 8 y-old is a negative. TROPICAL STRAIT has not been seen out since the end of November when it ran in it's first Listed race [ 3rd on the AW at Kempton ] from 14 outings. Added to the fact that he's a 6 y-old and has never won first time out is enough for me to discount his chance. THE BETCHWORTH KID has ran 3 times in Listed company [ never in Group co ] and although placed was beaten nonetheless . A lack of class might find this one out imo. Which leaves 3 to look at - ALL THE ACES , TASTAHIL and YELLOWSTONE . As with the Lockinge the ground conditions will affect the selection so i'll leave it until tomorrow to make a final choice .

No surprise to see GEORDIELAND declared a nr , as is INVENTOR . AEON STAKES - ALLTHE ACES - Soft going should not be a problem for this seasonal debutant . His best win so far is a Cl 3 handicap [12f ] but ran well enough in Grp 2 + 3 company in his last 2 runs of last season , 2nd in the Chester Vase and 4th [btn 2l] in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot. With only 6 previous runs this one could still have improvement in him . TASTAHIL - This was 3rd behind ENROLLER last time out and both the 2nd [CENTENNIAL and ROYAL AND REGAL ] were well beaten in yesterdays Yorkshire Cup . Best win has been a Cl 2 Conditions race at Doncaster on Good ground but the Soft should suit , as well as the distance . He does seem to find one too good for him in most of his races however , and that last outing was his first in Group company . YELLOWSTONE - Has a win on Heavy going in a Listed Handicap race over 12f so todays conditions should not hinder . This will be 3rd outing for a new trainer as he was with AP O'BRIEN in his 2/3yo days , then went to J CHAPPLE-HYAM as a 4yo and now finds himself in the stable of P COLE. Has ran in no less than 8 Group 1's [ best placed 4th in the ECLIPSE and was 8th in AUTHORISED's Derby. 6 runs have been in Group 2's with a couple of 2nds and a 3rd the best runs in that grade. He has won at Group 3 level [ Gordon Stakes at Goodwood ] Theres no doubt he has the best credentials and after winning that Listed race at York last season he ran with great credit from top weight in a Cl2 Heritage H'cap over C/D . SUMMARY - YELLOWSTONE is the form choice and not having an outing this season should be a plus , but he might just the run imo. TASTAHIL usually finds one better and that could well be the case again today ,esp after yesterdays result. ALL THE ACES is the right age and despite making his debut here , he has been progressing thoughout his relatively short career . Distance / Ground should suit and he won at the firts time of asking last season so he gets the nod narrowly over YELLOWSTONE .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BUGGER !!! Counting the money a furlong out :cry ALL THE ACES 2nd @ 5/2f :@ to TASTAHIL .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends TWICE UNDER 3rd @ 15/2 , VIRTUAL improves to win @ 6's Tried to make all and not disgraced in defeat At least we got the 2 winners down to the short-list just a pity i called them wrong .

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Unlucky today mate, hopefully i can win the 3.10 in my thread today !! I have covered 3 against the field. Virtual was bi enough to back 2 in that race? I know you normally narrow it down to a final selection but is that the best policy?

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Unlucky today mate, hopefully i can win the 3.10 in my thread today !! I have covered 3 against the field. Virtual was bi enough to back 2 in that race? I know you normally narrow it down to a final selection but is that the best policy?

It's the force of 35 years of habit BOWLES , its always after the event when i look back and see that i named the winner it the short-list and i wonder why the hell didn't i go for 2 or even 3 if the odds were right . Today they certainly were . It's a lot easier nowadays to get on 2/3 and get a return thanks to betfair and you young pups aout there don't know how spoilt you are :lol You are right , trying to narrow it down to one selection is NOT the right policy if the odds suit and i'll try to break the habit from now on . PS GOOD LUCK WITH AQWAAL

[Luther]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Baden (GER) 24th May - 15:15 1m3f Grp2 Kamsin , 4j. db. H. Samum-Kapitol Adelar , 4j. b. H. Samum-Arpista Ambassador , 5j. b. H. Acatenango-After Eight Blues Lord Hill , 5j. b. H. Tiger Hill-Lady Fox Sassoaloro , 5j. b. H. Acatenango-Spartina Tullamore (USA), 4j. b. H. Theatrical-Bungalow Zaungast (IRE), 5j. db. H. Alkalde-Zauberwelt Tres Rapide (IRE), 4j. b. S. Anabaa Blue-Tres Ravi Get your head around this one.... :)

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Baden (GER) 24th May - 15:15 1m3f Grp2 Kamsin , 4j. db. H. Samum-Kapitol Adelar , 4j. b. H. Samum-Arpista Ambassador , 5j. b. H. Acatenango-After Eight Blues Lord Hill , 5j. b. H. Tiger Hill-Lady Fox Sassoaloro , 5j. b. H. Acatenango-Spartina Tullamore (USA), 4j. b. H. Theatrical-Bungalow Zaungast (IRE), 5j. db. H. Alkalde-Zauberwelt Tres Rapide (IRE), 4j. b. S. Anabaa Blue-Tres Ravi Get your head around this one.... :)

Working on it right now mate :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Kamsin - Would appear to be the Class horse in the race with 3 wins in Grp 1 company [German Derby] , also won Grp 2 + 3 .Has won over 12f on the course and has won on good + Soft going Adelar - Won for the first time LTO but was disqualified . Well behind KAMSIN off level weights , btn 9l , in the Grp 1 German Derby Ambassador , Lord Hill - Never won in 17 attempts Sassoaloro - Best placed 4th in a Group 3 , seems to be a bit reluctant to get his head in front with four 2nds from 7 runs. Tullamore (USA) - Only had 2 runs , one was winning the Czech Derby , made a disappointing reappearance LTO at St Cloud when last of 7 . Zaungast (IRE) - Has won Group 3 race , one of 4 career wins .Would prefer Good ground or better Tres Rapide (IRE) - has won over 12f on Heavy going , so some give will be a plus . Was 4th [btn 2+half length ] in the German Oaks and been 2nd three times in Grp 2 /3 and Listed grade . Made a nice seasonal debut at Chantilly in a Grp 2 on Sft going lto [ only btn a hd] KAMSIN is , as i say , the best horse in the race and will probably start at short-odds . If your looking for an EW or place bet then TRES RAPIDE [ only filly in the race ] is worth a look . If the ground is on the fast side then ZAUNGAST might surprise . Hope this helps mate , good luck and enjoy your weekend :ok

[Luther]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends You really are a decent bloke - I thought you were joking... Kamsin does look like the class act and Betfair have it available at 1.64 for small money (early days though, could drift and I'll have the Blackberry). Being the German Derby winner, you would imagine it will be a short price on track. There are thunderstorms predicted for Sunday so that could improve Tres Rapide's chances (hope the rain doesn't materialise though - I have only packed shorts)... It looks a great varied card over the 2 days with a hurdle and X-country race thrown in for good measure. A few winners, some steins, a couple of Overs in France, Fulham winning - weekend complete. Many thanks again for your efforts, Luther

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CURRAGH 3.10 6f Group 3 Stakes ------------------------------------ 11/11 rated 100+ 11/11 had won at least twice in it's career 10/11 were distance winners 9/11 had ran that season , with 6 finishing 1st - 3rd 9/11 had won at LISTED level and above 9/11 were 4y-old + 4/11 were tarined in GB 2/11 were Favs , winners odds up to 20/1 SENOR BENNY is around the 33/1 mark so thats the first to go . Older horses ICLANDIC and KNOT IN WOOD are out . THREE ROCKS has won nothing better than a 14k Handicap and this will be his 6th run of the season . GEORGEBERNARDSHAW has ran twice this season and finished 8/9 and last of 12 , he seems to have lost his way . If Murtagh was on board i would take a 2nd look as he has rode him in both his wins and has been on board the last 7 of 8 runs. Which leaves 4 to consider - UTMOST RESPECT who surprised quite a few when taking a Grp 2 at York LTO on ground classed as G/F , previously he had won on going with a fair bit more give than that in it , indeed he had been declared doubtful the day before due to the ground. he had already won a couple of Grp 3 's and this is his distance [ 5 wins at 6f ] and he has his preferred ground here . R Fahey has sent 2 older horses to win from 12 runners at The Curragh over the past 5 seasons . JUMBAJUKIBA will relish the going but although he won over 6f LTO , he has done most of his running/winning at 7/8f . That win LTO was in a relatively weak Listed event and in this grade over the 6f he could find a couple too good. 4 Group 3 's have been won and he will ensure a good gallop , even on this ground as thats his way of running . SNAEFELL like the others will be suited by the going and distance [ 2 wins] altough being a 5y-old with quite a few races under his belt it remains to be seen if he can run up to his previous best which he will have to do here imo. Rated 108 he is at least 4lb's worse off with the other 3. However his record at 6f on Soft/heavy going is 1 , 1 , 4 , 2 . The 4th was when he was btn by a couple of 3yos in a Sep Grp 3 [ 3rd was Senor Benny ! ]and he ran well when 2nd in a Listed race from stall 2 , the winner and the 3 behind hime were drawn 11 , 6 , 8 + 12. Ran well on his seasonal debut when 6th [ btn 3l] in a Listed race at NAAS [ Georgebernardshaw was last ] BUSHRANGER is the only 3y-old in the race but has won a couple of Group 1's in it's last 2 races of last season . Certainly has the potential and if it has progressed will be an obvious danger and the trainer has had 6 Three y-old winners from 36 runners this season . But it is a worry that all his wins have been on ground no worse than G/S I heard on the radio earlier that there were actually puddles on the track today !! He is also making his seasonal debut here so i'm concerned that he won't be pushed too hard if struggling in the final furlong . SUMMARY - BUSHRANGER has age and ground conditions against him and as i have said above , his fitness could be tested on the going. Other/better prizes could taken later in the season so will he be asked too hard a question tomorrow ? i have my doubts . JUMBAJUKIBA will try and lead all the way but this is a much harder race than last time and he set the race up for other , more experienced 6f horses to pounce . UTMOST RESPECT won a race on ground that had his trainer considering withdrawning him from . He gets his preferred going here but i have a niggly worry that the trainer maybe had him too far forward than he thought LTO ?? Only my opinion of course and indeed the trainer has hopes he'll win at Group 1 grade this season . However the odds are restrictive and 6 previous favs have been turned over at short-odds [ 11/8 , evs , 4/5 , 8/13 , 6/4 and 11/10 ] SNAEFELL will have to post a career best but with a run under his belt [ onlybtn 3l ] he will strip fitter for this . But it's his liking for the conditions of the race that appeal , he has shown his liking for the Ground , Distance and Course. The race should be set up for him [ and a couple of others] as JUMBAJUKIBA will set a decent pace , as always . He was 3rd in this last year [ on Firm going !! ] btn just over 2 lengths and if reproduces that run on this ground i can see him going a couple of places better :hope Taking advice from last week and nominating a couple in this race , 1st and main selection is SNAEFELL Stake 7pts win on SNAEFELL @ 12/1 Stake 3pts win on JUMBAJUKIBA @ 11/2 , just in case he manages to hold on !!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 2.35 HAYDOCK 6f LISTED 3yo+ --------------------------------------- 10/10 were returned at odds of 11/1 or UNDER 9/10 were rated 94+ 9/10 had ran that season , 7 finishing in the first 3. 9/10 were Southern /Irish trained 8/10 had won /been placed in at least Listed grade 5 x 3yo's have won from 53 runners 5 x 4yo's+ have won from 49 runners The market takes care of ANGUS NEWZ , CARCINETTO , FESTOSO , GENTLE GURU , PRINCESS VALERINA and NEVER LOSE . The 2 remaining 3 y-olds [ ADORN + ZUZU ] have not had a run this season so i'm discounting them. MULLEIN has never RAN in anything above a Cl 2 Handicap . PUSEY STREET LADY has ran 4 times in Listed grade but has only a 2nd to show for those efforts , will be outclassed by a few here imo. 3 left to consider - LESSON IN HUMILITY done us proud last time and that was his 2nd Listed victory . 6f is his distance and he is top rated on 105. On the negative side , 4 of his 5 career wins have been on ground classed as Good or better . His one win on Soft was at Listed grade but there was doubts about the others who ran in that race . MAX ONE TWO THREE takes on LESSON IN HUMILITY who beat him fair and square last time , can't see any reason why the tables should be turned tomorrow tbh. AINE comes over from Tommy STACKS stable and he has had a winner and a 2nd from 2 runners over the past 10 seasons [ Irish trained horses have a record of 1 win , three 2nd's and three unp from 7 runners ] It has won an 11k Handicap but has two 2nd's and a close 4th [ btn under 2l ] in Listed company . The ground will not inconvienience him and @ 7/1 is a damn good bet to improve on his 2nd in this race last year . STAKE 7pts AINE @ 7/1 STAKE 3pts LESSON IN HUMILITY @ 3/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

2.35 HAYDOCK 6f LISTED 3yo+ --------------------------------------- STAKE 7pts AINE @ 7/1 STAKE 3pts LESSON IN HUMILITY @ 3/1

LESSON IN HUMILITY now a non-runner , 3pts now on MAX ONE TWO THREE @ S/P

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends A day to forget unfortunately :cry

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends A best placed 2nd from JUMBAJUKIBA was the highlight of the day . Although AINE had won on Heavy going that ground at Haydock looked more like glue !!! SNAEFELL was simply out-classed tbh. CURRAGH 3.05 11f Tattersalls Gold Cup Grp 1 -------------------------------------------------- 13/13 were 7/1 or Under [top 3 in the betting ] 12/13 had won at Either Grp1 or Grp 2 11/13 had won between 10f - 12f. 11/13 had won at least 3 races 11/13 were 4y-olds [ other 2 were 5y-old ] 11/13 were placed 1st - 4th last time out. 9/13 had ran at LONGCHAMPS or The CURRAGH LTO 6/6 had a BHA rating of which the minimum was 110. 3/13 were of the female sex.. MOIQEN is the outsider at 10/1 so he's out. THEWAYYOUARE has only won at 8f , a big negative . 3 to consider are - LUSH LASHES is the only Filly in the race and with no less than 3 Group 1 wins to her name , she ceratinly has the best credentials . She has won over 10 + 12 f BUT 3 of her wins have been on either G/F or Firm going . She has won on Yielding but the heavy ground must be against her as she makes her seasonal debut here . FAMOUS NAME should relish the conditions underfoot . He has only won at Group 3 level but has been placed 2nd in a Group 1 [ French Derby] and is the only one of the remaining 3 to have ran at either the Curragh or Longchamps . His 2nd in the MOORESBRIDGE is even more impressive in relation to this race as 3 previous winners from the last 13 runnings ran in that event . Has won over 10f and has won 3 races . CASUAL CONQUEST ran 2nd LTO at Newmarket in a 3 horse race on ground that proved far too lively. Has won a Group 2 and was placed 3rd in the Derby and 2nd in the Irish Derby . It will be interesting to see how he handles to going as he has never ran on anything softer that GD to Yielding before. Summary - The selection has to take into consideration the effect the ground will have and with that in mind FAMOUS NAME is getting the nod here . On top of that he ran in the MOORESBRIDE last time which has been a pointer to the winner of this in the past .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends FAMOUS NAME 2nd behind stable companion CASUAL CONQUEST who relished the conditions , GOODWOOD 3.10 10F Listed Stakes ------------------------------------- 9/9 were under 13/2 [3rd fav] 8/9 were 4/5 y-olds 8/9 had won at Class 2 or above 8/9 with a BHA rating were rated 107+ 7/9 had won at 9f/10f Apply the odds BHA ratings and the age stats leaves 2 to consider TRANQUIL TIGER comes from the CECIL yard , is rated 114 , has won over C/D , is a 5y-old and has won 4 Listed races in it's career . On the negative side it has not won first time out in any of it's 2 seasonal debuts , in fact it has taken 2 runs in both season sbefore finding the winners enclosure . CHARLIE FARNSBARNS is rated 112 , has won at 9f , is a 5y-old and has won a Group 3 and been placed in a Group 1 . He has ran 3 times since the end of March , the 1st was in a Grp 1 over in Dubai [ weel btn] , next was a decent 5th [btn under 4l ] behind TARTAN BEARER in a Grp 3 at Sandown and last time out was well btn 4th over an inadequate 12f . Although CHARLIE FARNSBARNS has yet to over 10f , his in at 9f gives hope and he should be fit enough here . The stable has had a couple of winners over the past fortnight but not exactly a great strike rate . However with TRANQUIL TIGER probably needing the run i'm going for B MEEHAN'S charge to take this Listed race on ground that will suit. Stake 6pts CHARLIE FARNSBARNS Stake 4pts TRANQUIL TIGER

[mowgli77]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends I've gone for Yahrab in the same race at a bigger price, I think Tranquil Tiger is the danger. I don't really rate Charlie Farnsbarns but that is more to do with personal opinion. I hope one of us finds the winner. :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :ok Mowgli , good luck today mate and well done with CASUAL CONQUEST yesterday . A couple of interesting pointers to the 2 divicions of the 1m Maiden at Chepstow . 10/10 were retruned in the the top 5 in the betting [ all under 10/1] and more interestingly 9/10 were 3y-olds . If we apply those stats to the 1st div [ 2.15 ] we are left with 2 and they are REPORTAGE and MONETARY FUND . Personal preference is for the former as more was expected of the latter last time at Thirsk as well as 7 of the past 10 had only had 1 or 2 previous outings . The 2nd Div [2.50 ], if we apply the age and odds stats leaves LUC JORDAN , PALACEFIELD and PARK LANE . The latter 2 have raced 3 and 5 times before respectively so LUC JORDAN is the selection . [obviously these are NOT main trends bets ]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

FAMOUS NAME 2nd behind stable companion CASUAL CONQUEST who relished the conditions , GOODWOOD 3.10 10F Listed Stakes ------------------------------------- 9/9 were under 13/2 [3rd fav] 8/9 were 4/5 y-olds 8/9 had won at Class 2 or above 8/9 with a BHA rating were rated 107+ 7/9 had won at 9f/10f Apply the odds BHA ratings and the age stats leaves 2 to consider TRANQUIL TIGER comes from the CECIL yard , is rated 114 , has won over C/D , is a 5y-old and has won 4 Listed races in it's career . On the negative side it has not won first time out in any of it's 2 seasonal debuts , in fact it has taken 2 runs in both season sbefore finding the winners enclosure . CHARLIE FARNSBARNS is rated 112 , has won at 9f , is a 5y-old and has won a Group 3 and been placed in a Group 1 . He has ran 3 times since the end of March , the 1st was in a Grp 1 over in Dubai [ weel btn] , next was a decent 5th [btn under 4l ] behind TARTAN BEARER in a Grp 3 at Sandown and last time out was well btn 4th over an inadequate 12f . Although CHARLIE FARNSBARNS has yet to over 10f , his in at 9f gives hope and he should be fit enough here . The stable has had a couple of winners over the past fortnight but not exactly a great strike rate . However with TRANQUIL TIGER probably needing the run i'm going for B MEEHAN'S charge to take this Listed race on ground that will suit. Stake 6pts CHARLIE FARNSBARNS Stake 4pts TRANQUIL TIGER

A big difference in the market with CHARLIE now sitting at 10/1 , 5th in the betting !!! If we assume that the betting is probably the strongest trend is most races i look at [ and i do for one ] and i relax the age stat [ one 7y-old has won in the past 9 runnings ] then it looks a totally different scenario. TRANQUIL TIGER is still there but out goes CHARLIE F and in comes ORDANCE ROW and PINPOINT . ORDNANCE ROW has never won over 8f so todays 10f must be a worry [ ran twice over 10f - best placed 2nd ] PINPOINT has won over the distance and will appreciate the Good going. Rated 107 he just makes it but he should lack the class to win this but he does have a fitness edge over TRANQUIL TIGER . If i were to make a main selection again it would be ORDNANCE ROW , he has a Group 3 and a couple of Listed races and been 2nd over C/D . He may have struggled with stiffer competition but as i say TRANQUIL may need the run and PINPOINT [ although a winner over 10f ] might struggle in this better class race [ 3 other career wins were over 8f ] I'm re-adjusting the 2nd selection to have ORDNANCE ROW with CHARLIE FARNSBARNS still the main nap .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

A big difference in the market with CHARLIE now sitting at 10/1 , 5th in the betting !!! If we assume that the betting is probably the strongest trend is most races i look at [ and i do for one ] and i relax the age stat [ one 7y-old has won in the past 9 runnings ] then it looks a totally different scenario. TRANQUIL TIGER is still there but out goes CHARLIE F and in comes ORDANCE ROW and PINPOINT . ORDNANCE ROW has never won over 8f so todays 10f must be a worry [ ran twice over 10f - best placed 2nd ] PINPOINT has won over the distance and will appreciate the Good going. Rated 107 he just makes it but he should lack the class to win this but he does have a fitness edge over TRANQUIL TIGER . If i were to make a main selection again it would be ORDNANCE ROW , he has a Group 3 and a couple of Listed races and been 2nd over C/D . He may have struggled with stiffer competition but as i say TRANQUIL may need the run and PINPOINT [ although a winner over 10f ] might struggle in this better class race [ 3 other career wins were over 8f ] I'm re-adjusting the 2nd selection to have ORDNANCE ROW with CHARLIE FARNSBARNS still the main nap .

What a F***ing numpty i am :wall TRANQUIL TIGER wins @ 11/4f while CHARLIE FARNSBARNS is 3rd @ 13/2 while ORDNANCE ROW didn't stay ...

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Will be tightening things up a wee bit . SANDOWN 7.10 Group 2 16f --------------------------------------- 13/13 were 4 - 7y-olds 13/13 were rated 106+ 13/13 had a top 3 placing in Listed/Group class 13/13 had won at least at 12f 11/13 had ran that season , with 8 running LTO in the Yorkshire Cup or the Sagaro Stakes. 0 Favs have won in the past 10 runnings , odds range from 9/4 to 20/1. Even with such a wide odds range the 40/1 chance that BULWARK has writes him off from any chance here as does the 25/1 shot TUNGSTEN STRIKE . GEORDIELAND is now an 8y-old so a bit too long in the tooth for this one i'm afraid . VIPER is only rated 92 while FUILIN just fails at 105. 2 to consider and although TASTAHIL ran a great race last time out at Newbury to win a Grp 3 over 13f . He is not sure to stay the extra 3f on the firming ground imo. I have to go for the Fav !!! PATKAI won the Sagaro Stakes last time. Ground , Class and all the stats , bar the Fav , all fit into place . SANDOWN 7.45 Brig Gerard Stakes 10f ------------------------------------------- 13/13 aged 4 - 6y-old [ 11 were 4 or 5 ] 12/13 were returned at 12/1 or Under 11/13 had ran that season with 9 finishing 1st or 2nd LTO . 10/11 have won at least 3 races 10/11 ran in at least LISTED company LTO 10/11 had won [ 7 ] or been placed at 10f [2] 8/10 with BHA rating were rated 107+ 8/11 have won at LISTED level or been placed at Grp 2+ Appying the odds, rating , age and horses that have not ran this season [ except those who have shown winning form at the first time of asking leaves us with 3 to look at - CAMPANOLOGIST , CIMA DE TRIOMPHE and PIPEDREAMER .. CAMPANOLOGIST , even though he has won first time up on the past 2 seasonal debuts still has a doubt over his head as Godolphin are still not firing yet , coupled with the fcat that PIPEDREAMER has beaten him twice when he was recieving weight [ only a 3 y-old at the time ] CIMA DE TRIOMPHE makes his UK debut here for the Cumani stable Has been running in Group 1's last season and indeed has won at that grade over in Italy on G/F over 11f . Could well spring a surprise here . PIPEDREAMER has won 3 times over the 10f , will love the ground , has won a Group 2 and ran a good race last time to finish 3rd to last years Derby 2nd TARTAN BEARER over C/D . STAKE 9 pts @ SP - PIPEDREAMER STAKE 1pt @ SP - CIMA DE TRIOMPHE

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends A 4/1 winner and i'm still gutted :\ PATKAI 2nd @ 1/2f :( PIPEDREAMER unp :@ CIMA DE TRIOMPHE 1st @ 4/1 :) As always, the RP forecast is miles out from the SP , a problem when posting the night before . My own fault , instead of just covering the stakes if CIMA won i should have went for 60/40 split . Hindsight again !!!!!!!!!!!! , only thing i'm good at :wall Looks a busy day ahead on Saturday .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GOODWOOD - 3.25 - Listed - 8f 3yo+ -------------------------------------------- 5/5 were returned in the top 3 in the betting . 5/5 had won 2 or 3 races 5/5 had ran [ 4 were placed the other had been 9th in the Guineas ] 4/5 were 4y-olds , the race in which a 5y-old won had no 4y-old runners 4/5 had won over 8f 4/5 had won or been placed in Listed /Group company 4/5 were rated 105+ 4/5 ran in a Conditions/Listed /Group race lto MAC LOVE and BUSHMAN are 50's and 33's respectively . PURE POETRY is the only 3y-old in the field and is 10/1 . GENERAL ELLIOT is a general 12/1 so a bit too high for me. That leaves the top 5 in the betting to look at and from those UNNEFER has ran over 10f in 6 of his last 7 outings , winning 3 of them . It did make it's seasonal debut in the Doncaster Mile when 2nd , btn three quarters of a length . It then won over 10f at Lingfield , beating HALICARNASSUS who ran a game 2nd in Mondays Festival Stakes to TRANQUIL TIGER . That was a decent boost to his chances and if this was over 2 f more i'd be interested as it is he might find one too good over this quick 8f . PREMIER LOCO has won 6 times over the mile but 5 of those have been on an AW surface . His only turf win was back in Sep '07 in a Cl 4 Handicap . It must be a doubt that he can transfer his abilty from Dirt to Turf ? A similar comment applies to KING OF DIXIE who has won 5 races with 4 being on the AW . On the plus side he has won a Group 3 race [7f] but is now a 5y-old so that with his apparent preference for the AW puts me off his chance . So that leaves two 4y-olds that look like starting in the top 3 in the betting to consider . YAMAL has won 7 races with 5 of them being over the Mile and his last being a Listed race at Yorks Dante meeting , but that race was a Handicap ! He would appear to be the exception to GODOLPHIN'S usual poor start to the season. Rated 109 , he fits the trends quite nicely with a C/D win to his credit and a liking for Good- G/F going . Whatever your views about the stable they have an impressive strike-rate at Goodwood with 10 wins from 46 runners aged 4y-old+ [22%] PERFECT STRIDE may well start Fav here [3 Favs won from 5 ] and he has won twice [ Cl 2 the best] over 8f and has been 2nd in a Listed race LTO behind GENERAL ELLIOT on level weights [btn a nse ] on his seasonal debut . Sir M STOUTE has an even better strke-rate the Godolphin with older horses at Goodwood with 8 win from 32 [ 23%] Was thought good enough to take his chance in last years 2000 gns but finished well btn [ trainer reported the occasion got to him and he ran too fresh ] Stake 5pt win YAMAL Stake 5pt win PERFECT STRIDE. HAYDOCK - 2.35 - Listed - 12f 3yo+ -------------------------------------------- 6/6 were 4y-olds 5/6 were returned in the top 3 in the betting [ other was 12/1 ] 5/6 were Southern trained [ other from Lincs ] 5/6 won or had been placed 2nd or 3rd in Listed / Group company. 3 were making thier seasonal debuts 3 had ran that season and been placed LTO ATHLONE , LES FAZZANI and PRINCESS TAYLOR are 5 y-olds . CASSIQUE LADY [33's ] and SYLVILLA [20's ] are too far outwith the odds range MONBRETIA has ran this season but was a well btn 4th and has never ran above Cl 3 grade [ won Cl 5 ] Of the 4 left STARFALA has 2 victories to her name but both were on the AW and was 2nd but well btn [4l] in her first venture into Listed grade LTO. Might just that bit class today imo. SUZI'S DECISION won a Listed race at Newbury back in August but has not been seen since and the yard has only had 5 runners in the past 14 days with NONE getting into the money . The stable lack of runners/placings is a major worry for me. CLOWANCE was 4th in last years Oaks in just her 3rd career outing . The 12f might just be too short for her !! but if fit and replicating her Oaks run she should take this easily . However she seems to like just a bit of give in the ground and i'm assuming Haydock is sweltering like the rest of us and after the last meeting being run in Heavy the ground could end up G/F . GRAVITATION has been running fairly consistently in Listed /Group 3 class on her last 4 outings and has indded won a Group 3 over 14f . Theres no doubt she will appreciate the drying ground as on going classed as Good - G/F her record is 1 , 3 , 1 . The stable is not toiling but 1 winner and a couple of 3rd's from 10 runners [ 14 days ] isn't great but she has a good chance here with conditions in her favour , :hope she's fit enough but 3 debutants have won this before. Stake 5pts GRAVITATION Stake 5pt CLOWANCE. HAYDOCK - 3.05 - 7f - Group 3 4y-old+ ------------------------------------------------- 12/13 were returned 5/1 or Under . 12/13 had ran that season with 7 running at either York [Hambleton/Duke of York ] or the Lockinge . 10/13 were Southern trained 9/13 were 4-5y olds Concentrating on the top 3 in the betting which is a particularly strong trend leaves us with - BEACON LODGE who done us a favour a few weeks back . Well suited by the conditions he will face here he should run to place at least . MAIN AIM looks like starting Fav , only 3 have won from the past 13 , but i'm stumped as to why he's as short as he is ? 5/4 in a Group 3 when he has only won at Class 2 level . Won nicely lto but over 6f . He has won twice over the 7f but those were run nearly 2 secs slower than the standard . His 2 other wins were on G/S + Soft over 6f . No doubt he was impressive winning last time when finishing 7l in front of the 2nd but 5/4 is way too short for me on his record so far . TARIQ is the only one of the 3 to have run in one of those races that 7 previous winners had competed in . He ran 6th on his debut in the Lockinge over a distance too far and ground too soft for him to show his best . 3 wins at 7f on Good - G/F going at Listed , Group 3 and Group 2 shows he's no mug . His last 5 runs have all been in GROUP 1 races over 8f so it's no surprise the bare placings don't look too impressive but the drop in grade on ground that suits and a distance that he excells shold see him give a good account of himself . Also P CHAPPLE-HYAM has had 7 winners from only 16 runners in the past fortnight . Stake 6pts TARIQ Stake 4pts BEACON LODGE If your looking for one horse from those 6 to have a bet then i would say TARIQ holds the best chance at the odds for me . GL all :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CLOWANCE is a non runner so Stake 5pts SUZI'S DECISION , taking a chance on fitness but Pat Smullen is an interesting booking to take the ride.

[mowgli77]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

CLOWANCE is a non runner so Stake 5pts SUZI'S DECISION ' date= taking a chance on fitness but Pat Smullen is an interesting booking to take the ride.

:clap I was going to post in your thread at about midnight last night that I fancied this but went to sleep instead. Didn't post it up on PL this morning(was going to go in my thread) and didn't back it either. Not seen a race or any footy today, took the little lad to the park all day. Nice winner for you and nice price, gutted I forgot about it. I've put this one up on a few occasions before, has a good formline with Amanda Carter and followed them both since Pontefract. :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

:clap I was going to post in your thread at about midnight last night that I fancied this but went to sleep instead. Didn't post it up on PL this morning(was going to go in my thread) and didn't back it either. Not seen a race or any footy today' date=' took the little lad to the park all day. Nice winner for you and nice price, gutted I forgot about it. I've put this one up on a few occasions before, has a good formline with Amanda Carter and followed them both since Pontefract. :ok[/quote'] She won well yesterday and i would worry about missing it MOWGLI i'm sure theres a few decent races to be picked up with the Filly as she is certainly improving all the time :ok GRAVITATION - Definately needed the race i'm afraid , might even need another race before considering again . Finished last . BEACON LODGE ran a gallant 2nd to MAIN AIM who certainly fulfilled the promise shown last time out . TARIQ was a big disappointment for me , treid to make a move 4 out but once the chips were down he shied afway from the whip and couldn't quicken . Maybe needed the ground to have dried out more ?? YAMAL 3rd in a blanket finish [ form has to be taken with a pinch of salt imo ] . The distance's were a head , neck and nose between 1st +4th . PERFECT STRIDE was 6th but only btn 2l .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Average stuff both side of the Irish sea today so i'm having my first venture into France today and it's the Group 2 Prix De Chantilly over 12f i'm going to try to nominate the winner of . 14/19 have been 4y-olds 0 winners since 1979 have been aged over 6y-old 11/11 returned 12/1 or Under with 5 favs winning 11/11 have won at least a Listed race with 9 sucessful in Group company 11/11 had ran only once or twice this season. 10/11 ran in Group company LTO with only 1 finishing outside the first 5. Taking the current odds from Betfair measn we can discount PETROGRAD + BARONGO as both are at least 20/1. CHINCHON has never won in Listed/Group company . That leaves - IDEAL WORLD has won 3 times but never further than 10f , has won at Listed grade and 2 of those wins were on Good going . Has ran over 12f back in Sep and was only btn a nose However his reappearance this season was not at Listed /Group co. MAGADAN is Fav and has won 3 times with 2 of those over 12f and a win in both Listed and Group 3 level. Has ran twice this season and won both [ the L/Grp wins ] so is certainly the form horse . TIMOS has won 2 Listed events , both on G/S , and has ran twice this season finishing 1 , 6 . That 6th placing was behind MAGADAN in a Grp 3 race when btn four and a half legths getting 3lb , off level weights today so it's hard to see him turning tables , esp onGood ground . SCINTILLO is the UK raider from R HANNON'S stable . Has won 4 times , once at Listed and once at Group 3 when beating PREMIER LOCO [won yesterday ] in the Winter Derby on the AW . Won over 12f and last time was when 2rd in a Chester Group 3 . Technically this will be only his 3rd run this seaon [ Turf ] but of course he has been racing on the AW this year . I can see this being a match between SCINTILLO and MAGADAN and the formers close 2nd in a Grp 1 in his last race of last season gets him the nod here . Odds-on i'm afraid but i wouldn't put anyone of taking a place bet on SCINTILLO @ 2.72 [ first 2 places only - 7 run ]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Average stuff both side of the Irish sea today so i'm having my first venture into France today and it's the Group 2 Prix De Chantilly over 12f i'm going to try to nominate the winner of . 14/19 have been 4y-olds 0 winners since 1979 have been aged over 6y-old 11/11 returned 12/1 or Under with 5 favs winning 11/11 have won at least a Listed race with 9 sucessful in Group company 11/11 had ran only once or twice this season. 10/11 ran in Group company LTO with only 1 finishing outside the first 5. Taking the current odds from Betfair measn we can discount PETROGRAD + BARONGO as both are at least 20/1. CHINCHON has never won in Listed/Group company . That leaves - IDEAL WORLD has won 3 times but never further than 10f , has won at Listed grade and 2 of those wins were on Good going . Has ran over 12f back in Sep and was only btn a nose However his reappearance this season was not at Listed /Group co. MAGADAN is Fav and has won 3 times with 2 of those over 12f and a win in both Listed and Group 3 level. Has ran twice this season and won both [ the L/Grp wins ] so is certainly the form horse . TIMOS has won 2 Listed events , both on G/S , and has ran twice this season finishing 1 , 6 . That 6th placing was behind MAGADAN in a Grp 3 race when btn four and a half legths getting 3lb , off level weights today so it's hard to see him turning tables , esp onGood ground . SCINTILLO is the UK raider from R HANNON'S stable . Has won 4 times , once at Listed and once at Group 3 when beating PREMIER LOCO [won yesterday ] in the Winter Derby on the AW . Won over 12f and last time was when 2rd in a Chester Group 3 . Technically this will be only his 3rd run this seaon [ Turf ] but of course he has been racing on the AW this year . I can see this being a match between SCINTILLO and MAGADAN and the formers close 2nd in a Grp 1 in his last race of last season gets him the nod here . Odds-on i'm afraid but i wouldn't put anyone of taking a place bet on SCINTILLO @ 2.72 [ first 2 places only - 7 run ]

SCINTILLO 1ST

[fintron]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends running into some form again Jtw!

[Trotter]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

SCINTILLO 1ST

Well done jtw !...........:ok Don't know if you missed it but Scintillo is a Group One winner - won the Italian Derby a couple of years ago ! I guess including that would have made it an even firmer pick ?