arsenalpunter Posted December 26, 2006 Share Posted December 26, 2006 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 2.05 Simon Trip no problem along with ground and has had this race in mind all season. Goos 2nd lto over 3mile5 has a nice weight to carry round and should give a bold bid 9/1 Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 Welsh Grand National 2.05 Chepstow Some 10 yr trends: 9/10 - Under 10st 10lb 10/10 - Under 11st 1/10 - 6yo 9/10 - 7-9yo's 1/10 Favourite won Looking at the low weights, Simon 10/1, Lou Du Moulin Mas 8/1 & Naunton Brook 20/1 are the ones i have narrowed this down to. EW on all 3 for me today plus a combination forecast bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 L'Aventure for me in the national. Last years winner, only 5lb's higher. Has been laid out for this (admittedly so have 1 or 2 of the others), had a nice opener over hurdles. The mud wont be a problem for a horse that stays all day. can be moody which is a concern but 9/1 with bet365 has been taken. The danger for me is Simon, with Hexham rivals Kinburn and Naunton Brook completing the places.. 1. L'aventure 2. Simon 3. Kinburn 4. Naunton Brook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 For anyone who's backing SIMOn, there is a piece in Trainer File in this weeks RFO: "The Welsh national is the target and he goes there in good form. I was concerned that he may not get into the race but now looks likely to get a run, ableit from out of the handicap. I was pleased with his run at Sandown last time when runner-up to Tana River but this is a much better race and he will need to improve again. I do think that the ground and track ought to suit him. Although he handles most types of ground he is ideally suited by plenty of cut. He had some good form over fences winning three times for Phillip Fenton in Ireland. he is a good jumper and I am reasonably hopeful about his chance" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 240 Chepstow - Lord Adonis 5pts ew @ 25/1 Stan james This one was runner up on his hurdling debut at a monster price of 100/1 and would have been placed last time out at the same price but for being hampered by a faller. Whilst this is a step up in grade, it doesnt look a particularly intimidating race and at 25/1 its worth taking a chance that he again runs well at a price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalpunter Posted December 27, 2006 Author Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 2.40 - Chepstow - Paradi. Won well last time out, has a penalty for that win but still looks ahead of the handicapper and has conditions to suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 I've gone back to my picks from last night and I have doubts about them this morning, so I just have the one bet instead of four now, and that is Naunton Brook EW in the National. Sorry to be boring as many of you have already tipped this up, but looks a cracking EW bet. Proven stamina over long distances, and has been on winning ways last 2 runs. Fits into the trends bowles wrote also and it just seems right! Has a penalty but good young jock takes this off. 20/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty Magyar Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 12.20 HIGH CHIMES EW @12/1 Good form in point-to-points, well regarded. Can see making this a real test from front today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sensibleboy Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 SportHorse Racing Event12.20 Chepstow SelectionBougoure (to place) Strength10/10 Date27/12/2006 Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 2.04 (Back) ReasoningWould have won on chasing debut but for a horrid mistake 3 out and was a bit dissapointing when only 2nd at EVS last time, going down behind Turnstile. That was still a good run as his jumping is a bit patchy and he will have learnt from the experience. With the exception of Afrad this doesn't look too strong and he should be able to fill one of the minor places. SportHorse Racing Event2.05 Chepstow SelectionL'Aventure (to place) Strength10/10 Date27/12/2006 Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 3.50 (Back) ReasoningAn absolute dog of a horse who just stays, stays and stays. This race will suit him as she won it 12 months ago and was 4th in it 2 years ago. She is up just 5lbs from last years win and ought to take the beating again. Considering the ground is soft and there is plenty of runners, she will stay on all day when others have cried enough. I think she should definetly be involved in the placings and 5/2 has to be taken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MajorWager Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 e/w value 12.55 - Madison Du Berlais @ 8/1. Place chances if its not too soft 1.30 - Portland Bill @ 12/1. Unlucky lto 2.05 - Simon @ 10/1. Close benind Tana River lto, stays and stays. 2.40 - Warnes Way @ 20/1. The 2nd Raslan won impressively next time out 3.15 - Palmridge @ 7/1. Took on Black Jack K lto, highly thought of. 3.45 - Morgan the Mighty @ 8/1. overpriced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 Right, I've had a crack at the 2 handicaps at Kempton with 10+ runners so here's on to the 3 at Chepstow. MADISON DU BERLAIS (12.55 C) 8/1 Sporting Odds. EW bet. IMO, so many positives for this horse today. Another drop in handicap mark despite a promising run behind Exotic Dancer lto. Ideal trip today, found 2m5f too far lto but think 2m is too sharp and could get tapped for toe, so todays 2m3f seems to be just right. Down in class to Class 3 for the 1st time since March. Has won its last 3 in Class 3 handicaps so could be ready to strike back in this grade. Still a 5yo so very much on the upgrade but probably been boxing above its weight for the last 3/4 runs. The ex French horse NOZIC for Walsh / Nicholls should be the danger but at 3/1, I'll happily oppose with this one. ILE DE PARIS (1.30 C) 12/1 generally available. EW bet. All its form on soft/heavy so Chepstow should be the ideal course. Coming into form with good 2nd at Haydock lto, and should benefit from the step up to 3m today. Stable is in decent form and this horse should be ready to put in a big run after taking time to get going after 18 month absence. This is its 4 run back. Interestingly on same mark as its 2nd in this grade lto. SIMON (2.05 C) 10/1 Betdirect. EW bet. Very competitive Welsh National with several dangers including NAUNTON BROOK and LORDOFOUROWN (small EW savers on these). However this horse has been laid out for the race and comes here on the back of a very good run at Sandown behind TANA RIVER. Loves marathon trips as that race at Sandown was over 3m6f. Also goes best for this jockey, Andrew Thornton. Featherweight today so should be staying on at the end. Another who will really enjoy this going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 Sorry Russ - i'll probably curse this now...... 1255 Chepstow - Madison du Berlais 5pts ew @ 7/1 >bet365 This is the lowest class race this one has run in since his win at Newbury in march. he was subsequently competitve in a couple o higher class races thereafter but wasnt good enough to win. has run twice this season, again in higher grades. Last time the trip of 21f would have been a touch too far and he may have needed the run first time out when well beaten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 Sorry Russ - i'll probably curse this now...... 1255 Chepstow - Madison du Berlais 5pts ew @ 7/1 >bet365 This is the lowest class race this one has run in since his win at Newbury in march. he was subsequently competitve in a couple o higher class races thereafter but wasnt good enough to win. has run twice this season, again in higher grades. Last time the trip of 21f would have been a touch too far and he may have needed the run first time out when well beaten. :@ :@ :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 deleted - wrong thread! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 L'Aventure 2.05 (EW) Same reasons as already explained by others, also see ew fancies thread. Arsenal punter: 2.40 - Chepstow - Paradi. Won well last time out, has a penalty for that win but still looks ahead of the handicapper and has conditions to suit. Agree with this one. :ok Really fancy Paradi today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 4th:sad .....it's your fault, AK:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatz Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 As EW fancies thread :- Kinburn (2.05 chepstow) RP f/c 10/1 A horse going places if his jumping can be improved. Very nearly managed to lug 11-12 to victory over 4 miles LTO so definately stays and with 10-7 today won't know he's got a jockey on his back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 Having looked through the 2.05 in more depth Naunton Brook looks great value. I missed the 20-1, just got on now at 14's. In form, up 5lb, but claiming 5lb and due to go up by another 4lb. Weighted ok and looks like a good ew bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 Cheeky £1 ew on Heroes Collonges in the National @ 100/1 - last years runner up. Seems a big price for a horse who rarely runs a bad race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 anyone who saw the preview on BBC2 with Alan King should have put a few quid on the winner!! I didnt!!:wall Naunton brook led all the way until 3 out & couldnt stay on for a place finishing 5th:@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 Right, I've had a crack at the 2 handicaps at Kempton with 10+ runners so here's on to the 3 at Chepstow. MADISON DU BERLAIS (12.55 C)....4th:wall 8/1 Sporting Odds. EW bet. ILE DE PARIS (1.30 C)....3rd (10/1 SP):clap 12/1 generally available. EW bet. SIMON (2.05 C)....unpl:( 10/1 Betdirect. EW bet. Very competitive Welsh National with several dangers including NAUNTON BROOK....5th:wall and LORDOFOUROWN...4th (11/1 SP):clap (small EW savers on these). 2 placed @ 12/1 EP and 11/1 SP 2 finished just 1 position outside the places 1 nowhere Small loss but a little unlucky today:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 anyone who saw the preview on BBC2 with Alan King should have put a few quid on the winner!! I didnt!!:wall Naunton brook led all the way until 3 out & couldnt stay on for a place finishing 5th:@ I watched it and put £5 on. Recouped my losses from earlier and also have it doubled with Goodbye Mr Simon in the next race (£3 bet), so have £24 going onto that race :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 I watched it and put £5 on. Recouped my losses from earlier and also have it doubled with Goodbye Mr Simon in the next race (£3 bet), so have £24 going onto that race :hope nice one mate:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Chepstow 27/12 nice one mate:ok cheers mate :ok My first win in a little while. Hope its a turn in luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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