lanasone Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Hi all I think it's when a horse or dog is taken out of the race before the off,a non-runner(scratched) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP66 Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Hi, Very interesting thread and great work pinho. I've noticed a few people say they can't always access betfair during the afternoon - you may be interested in the auto betfair package they've just launched which allows user to post ranges that they want to back/lay within and it monitors the market and adjusts the bets accordingly (http://labs.betfair.com/labs.aspx). I haven't tried it myself but thought some people might get some benefit from it. Good luck all KP66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System KP66: you have no idea how important this may be to me! I am going to England in October on work, and I can't take my laptop with me during the day, so I was thinking that my system was going to be stopped during one month and a half, this way it seems I will be able to bet automatically in the morning. I'll take a closer look at the program. Thank you so much! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System I downloaded the program and it's great, the only problem is that it has to be connected at the time you set it to trigger your bets, and that means having your computer online the whole afternoon. For me that is not a problem, but maybe some people won't be able to do it. I am going to test it tomorrow on some races that don't fall within the system to try some ideas, and if it's good I'll make a small tutorial in .doc format and post it here. The interface is very easy and you only have to set one or two parameters to program it to follow my system, it's very useful indeed. Thanks KP66, great help! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP66 Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Glad it's of some use, what's a forum for??? Be lucky KP66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP66 Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System ps - if making sure your always connected to the net (betfair??) is a priority you might consider your own server, just don't go for a US one cos they're cheaper as any bets on BF will automatically be declined! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinglouey Posted September 2, 2006 Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Hi, Very interesting thread and great work pinho. I've noticed a few people say they can't always access betfair during the afternoon - you may be interested in the auto betfair package they've just launched which allows user to post ranges that they want to back/lay within and it monitors the market and adjusts the bets accordingly (http://labs.betfair.com/labs.aspx). I haven't tried it myself but thought some people might get some benefit from it. Good luck all KP66 Looks like this could be a handy little tool for those of us out at work during the day, my biggest hassle at the moment is having to return home every lunchtime.Though it makes me feel nervous to entrust this app to lay my money for me,which means leaving the computer on unattended,i think i'll give it a go.Best to only leave the days possible liabilities in the Betfair account just in case this app goes haywire or you accidently type in the wrong orders and don't notice,of which in my case this could be a high possibility:unsure Well spotted KP66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trollerboy Posted September 2, 2006 Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Hello, do you only lay a horse when there has been a significant reduction in odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Hello trollerboy, the answer is no. I think that would increase the profit margin, but that would mean I would have to be in front of the computer the whole day, checking prices in the morning, then at lunchtime, and then waiting for the off. If you have the time to do it, please check ifthis would mean improved margins, but I'm quite happy with the system as it is now, and with the addition of auto-betfair this will mean that I program it in the morning and that's it, at the end of the day I check how it went. Thanks for the input and good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trollerboy Posted September 2, 2006 Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System have you witnessed that your picks have an influence on the odds? For example that a horse you have picked has increased in odds ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System No way! How could I influence the thousands of bets being placed on a 1.5 shot? That's the beauty in this, there are very few people who are willing to lay the most hot tipped favourites. This forum (and very few others) has such people who understand how the market works, but most people will concentrate on the horse and say that horse X with such good form and tipped by Mr Tipster who has such a good record, will win for sure! What they fail to understand is exactly that there are thousands Joe Punters who will do the same, and force the price down. As to laying only horses that have shortened in price, I prefer to keep the system simple and manageable, but surely if you have the will you can improve it. If you come up with some interesting stats feel free to share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trollerboy Posted September 2, 2006 Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System hello do you scan the newspapers every day by yourself or is it available online? thanks sascha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itooam Posted September 2, 2006 Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System How you doing upto now? - missed the earlier selections - may have to download that software (looks good). Although I fancy having a look at the free betfair api if I get chance tomorrow and perhaps write something? With that bf software can you include the rule of multplying stake if less than odds 2? Suppose you could probably do it as 2 seperate bets. I.e., if we should have 3 stakes if odds under 2: one if odds under 4 (1xstake), one if odds under 2 (2 x stake). I.e., all 3 will get matched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trollerboy Posted September 2, 2006 Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System please forgot last question. i just found the answer in the thread but one more idea: on olbg (online-betting-guide.co.uk) there are lots of fancied horses (hot tips). It would be interesting to try to lay them. or maybe backing would be better? i will have a look into this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Racing Post and Sportinglife websites have the tips available online. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System ittoam: I am now using the software to place my bets, and it's working fine. I am using exactly the method you mention of using two different bets to have different stakes if over or under 2.0. Only two horses qualified, one won one lost, still some races to go, no sweat. trollerboy: I don't know that site, but if you feel like it feel free to take a look and share what you find. Good Luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System but one more idea: on olbg (online-betting-guide.co.uk) there are lots of fancied horses (hot tips). It would be interesting to try to lay them. or maybe backing would be better? i will have a look into this. I went through the site and it's a tipster competition of some sort. The general trend appears to be betting on favourites, which in itself will hardly prove profitable in the long run in my opinion. The question you must ask yourself is: Will these tips have an inffluence on the market? Because that is why this tipsters system appears to work. These tips are published on national newspapers AND on the Racing Post, and that influences the market, as can be seen by more than 350 bets since the start of the paper trial returning a 10.9% yield so far. If it's some website with some readers, it won't make a difference. Hope that helps, these are personal views and I can be absolutely wrong, but I hope time will prove my theory and we'll make some money out of it, which is also fun:ok . Please don't let my opinion stop you from researching what you think may find value, only God knows everything, and even so lots of people have doubts about him... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System OK, here is the tutorial, I am also posting it on post #1 system rules.conv_127.doc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fifer Posted September 2, 2006 Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Pinhofap Excellent write up on the Betfair program. Will this only place the bet 1 min b4 the off and therefore avoiding my problems of bets not taken due to wd horses or a bet placed at 4 early instead of just b4 the race at say 2.9 which would reduce my exposure on the bet ? Fifer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System I don't think I quite understand your question. The thing is the program will only place your bet 1 minute before the off, so there are no reductions due to non-runners. There are two selection boxes that you must leave unchecked, one is about placing bets in-play, and the one below that is reducing stake due to reduction factors. If these boxes are unchecked all your problems are solved. Hope that helps, and good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted September 3, 2006 Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System This is probably a stupid question I read most of your thread but cant find the answer How do you rate your horses 1,2 and three Is this dependant on how many tipsters select the horses ie 1 tipsters selection =1 2 tipsters selecting same horse = 2 3 or more tipsters selecting horse =3 I realise that you only lay 2 or 3 points if the selections are below evens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itooam Posted September 3, 2006 Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System hope it is okay for me to answer this pinhofap (you must really be enjoying that looooooong walk :D ) Raylin - your assumptions are correct on how the point system works. Another great day - I made 2.1 pts profit today (using a 100pt bank and 1pt per selection) :) Thanks... Quick question: not sure if you are still recording all results in an excell spreadsheet - if so, would percentage of bank staking be more profitable than the "staggered percentage incremental" staking you are currently using? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinglouey Posted September 3, 2006 Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Good first week Pinhofap.The highs and lows of the system seem to be not too erratic so far,helps to keep the blood pressure stable:D I'm very impressed so far,well done:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Hello, thanks for the kind words, first week was very encouraging. I have to pour some cold water on this, I'm afraid. Today I ran some simulations of 5000 bets in excel based on the results so far, using random results and the Strike Rates we have been showing at different price bands. 5000 bets should be aound 1 year in this system. What I am always worried about are losing runs, and the worst losing runs in each 5000 bets sim was always above 20%. Average was between 25-30 and the worst was 40%. I am ready and willing to go with this system, because as I've said before I believe this will work all year long independent of the type of racing, but for those who want to follow, there will be hard times up ahead. I just don't want to get to euphoric, because on every simulation starting with 1000 points you would never end up with less than 100.000 after 5000 bets using this staking plan. As for using fixed percentage of bank, it is less profitable, although a bit less risky, because when you lose you bet less, where in this staking plan, when you lose you bet the same, therefore recover more quickly (and if a long losing run hits you, you lose more, but in the long run it is always more profitable with a bit more risk, that still leaves bankruptcy almost impossible statistically). Results to follow in a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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