davidmphill Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Good start Pinho. :clap You deserve this to work for all your hard work. :okTotally agree. Bon Chance.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 30, 2006 Author Share Posted August 30, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 30, 2006 Author Share Posted August 30, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itooam Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Another great day Pinhofap :D Missed yesterday - had to work over my lunch so was screwed in more ways than one :( Was thinking perhaps I'll join you after the next losing day, but then remembered that old concept of "events being independent". So I joined in for my second day this lunch. Anyway nice to start on a high - is always nice to have the dreaded los...(I won't say it) after some profit has been built up...Nicer still to never get one ;) Was interesting to see your documented analysis on the other thread (your approach is in many ways similar to my own - though I'm still awaiting the "golden" system - starting to think the best way is to have lots of little profitable systems). Anyway thanks for the profit today and Keep up the great work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Another cracking day mate. Well done. :clap Bet you're glad you didn't wait for thje 1st Sept to start! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 30, 2006 Author Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Hello itooam, it's great to see that someone is following and winning. To be honest I wasn't expecting such a good start and this is bound to go on a losing run sooner or later, no way around that. As I said, August appears to have been a good month for favourites, so I expect the trend to at least descend a bit to 6/7% yield, which is excellent. The maths I made were that I am betting an average of 21% of bank every day, with a yield of 7% this means an average 1.47% increase per day. Compound interest per year is atronomic and that's why I am always saying 6/7% yield, because since the 25 July the Yield is actually 10%, which gives 2% per day. I don't believe in miracles, so I expect this to settle for a lower yield (I hope I am very very wrong!!!!!). I also think that a series of systems with reasonable yields (5% plus is very nice) is the thing for me, and you have some of that here. Since I only bet on betfair, which limits me a bit, I am now using my system, Danny Cash Profitable Laying System, Mr Intensity tennis qualifiers and will be going for Datapunter Soccer Hot Favourites when he gets that back on track. Splapdash has probably the best system here, but you need to use several bookies, and since I don't live in the UK that makes a bit hard for me...I keep separate banks for each system so that I can always keep track of the progress, yields, etc. It's all about being systematic and study hard I think, in my case I now feel confortable after having studied the results for the paper trial to continue backing this system when I go on a losing run. I went for this staking plan exactly because of that. The main things I've learnt here at PL are that you have to be systematic and have discipline and you can't win all the time. Coping with losses was hard for me, but now I look at the results in a less emotional way and try to look at the big picture. My wife is a mathematician by formation (works a lot on SPSS etc) and we discuss my betting hobby, systems, stats,etc., a lot. We now have an agreement that I only tell her how things are going on a weekly basis (every Saturday evening after the horses), so I don't take it hard if I have a losing day. It's the big picture that matters. My goal is to have money to go on vacation in July to Norway, which means multiplying my bank by 3/4 times until late June. I hope I can do it, and so can you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 30, 2006 Author Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Hodgey: you bet, I was working on the staking plan and realized that a losing day or two didn't change the results that much, so I went for it. Hope the trend continues, it's looking very good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Nice results again today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinglouey Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Pinhofap Key sentence for me in your post is "The main things i've learnt here at PL are that you have to be systematic and have discipline and you can't win all the time." Totally agree,that's one of the things i've learnt from reading threads from this forum and others.I'm a total novice when it comes to laying horses and the first horse ive ever layed was Leopard King.I didn't want to,the price of this horse compared to the price of the 2nd fav with a small number of runners was telling me that Leopard King had won before the race had started,my first thoughts were to start your system after this race.Then i thought that if i do that what will i do further down the line when races like this and worse come up having already been influenced by my own decision to not bet on the first race.:unsureIf you have a belief and the confidence in your system,which is one of the most unusal i've seen,then IMHO discipline and commitment will be the key.Win or lose i commend you for this system,i can only guess the amount of hours you've put in number crunching and testing and i really hope it is a success for you and you get your holiday in Norway.I've heard sailing through the fjords is one of the most beautiful places on earth. A big,big,big:ok from me.I'm a definite convert to laying and i'm having fun:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alun Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System good start pinho. you're running at a much higher strike rate than expected, just so everyone expects a losing run and doesn't freak when it happens. keep it up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itooam Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System nice work Pinhofap. Again, I didn't manage to get my bets on (need another job :) ). Very good start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fifer Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Hi Pinofhap I have followed your thread from inception and development thru to launch this week and would like to thank you for all the effort you have put in. I unfortunately can not access Betfair during the whole of the afternoon and find myself leaving a lot of Lays at 4 which do not seem to get matched (Even though you detail later it was a bet?) I do realize you must try and bet as close to post time as possible and will try and do this from next week. Please keep up the great work and I will continue to follow with interest.:clap Fifer:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itooam Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System I am pretty sure Betfair cancels all bets when a non-runner is declared (I could be wrong)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Yes, I suppose that's what happens, once a non-runner is declared, your bet is cancelled, and then the market is re-opened. I may be wrong, but I think that's the way it works. In the long run don't worry, all the value is in the short prices, if I were you I'd always leave lays one or two "ticks" below current back price. Say the horse is currently at 3.45 to back, I'd place a lay bet with odds of 3.35. In the long run you will catch all the steamers and make more profit than laying at current avialable price. The best option really is to lay in the last minute, but it's not easy, I know, I'll probably not bet through October and half of November because of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System I notice that 5 of your results have 1 point allocated but originally had 2 or more allocated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System methuselah, it's explained in the system rules, it has to do with the price of the horse when you lay. Best wishes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alun Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System I am pretty sure Betfair cancels all bets when a non-runner is declared (I could be wrong)? betfair suspends the market but does not cancel bets already matched. if you ahve an unmatched bet on order, only that will be cancelled. what happens to matched bets is that they will look at how important the horse is to the race and will knock that off the price of all matched bets. so the bet stands, but they effectively do an equivalent to the rule 4 that happens on course in such circumstances. al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Yes, and I'm assuming that this is why fifer has some unmatched bets where I have horses layed before the off. If he places his bets, and they are not matched before a NR appears, they are cancelled. I then get a match just before the off, that explains it probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System :notworthy :notworthy I got paid today so charged up the betfair account and followed accordingly. I got up late so was lucky enough to miss So Sweet but were on the others. Also missed Hephaestus as I had to leave for work at 3.30pm and at the time it didnt qualify pricewise. Overall, 8 from 9 winning lays and a healthy profit for the day. KUTGW pinhofap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System WFTE: great! I am expecting a losing run, although as we all know events are indepedent, so I don't know if it's tomorrow or not. I do however believe that the yield and SR won't hold this high forever, that would be just too good to be true. As I said yesterday, as long as we're in profit, who cares? Bring them on! Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Il drink to that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 31, 2006 Author Share Posted August 31, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maria Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Who knows more' date=' Odds compilers or Joe Punter?[/quote'] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System maria, thanks for the suport. I also hope this keeps up and we all celebrate enormous profits, although I expect to hear more comments about an "unusual system" or "almost suicidal to lay so many favourites". I hope people that don't read this forum continue to think like that, because it will mean making money for us. I started another paper trial about steamers and drifters based on the same principle of price movements and so far it is doing OK, who knows, maybe another profitable approach to be found there... Best wishes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System I have been looking at the current prices and think that a good tactic could be to lay around the time immediately after the scratchings have been announced. This is fairly early in the morning and Betfairs price graphs show a big dip at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System I am sorry but I don't know what "scratchings" are? Do you think it would be possible to lay at lower odds than what we are achieving? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itooam Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Looks like it will be an interesting day today - most of the selections are the "odds" favourite too. Excusing my ignorance, I would like to know what scratching are too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itooam Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System ...is it the draw positions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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