richards1986 Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) The Betfair market in the 4.15 at Tralee looks so dodgy, but i think thats cause its an Irish race...I got a feeling that Liscune could become a selection later so il update that if it happens. I got a bad feeling about today LOL. My systems been pretty flawless up to now and its due a bad day, we'll see!.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Don't worry, mate ... we followed you to see how your system goes and after a few wins perhaps many of us started to bet on your picks ... so .. the time's right for a big fall :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Cheers mate, Stamford Blue has already dropped to 2nd favourite but im still happy with the selection. Hes pretty much a Joint Favourite really and last night he was Favourite by a short margin. I think he will start 2nd favourite. Cause out of him and the other favourite, Kitchen Sink i think, he hasnt got as good form, so more money will go on KS. Anyways, im Blabbering on a bit. Best bet on Tequila Sheila is coral at 4/1 now, still paying for 4 places cuz the field went down to 15, but i expect more will pull out before the off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Well what can i say i was right!, i did have a bad day,......All 3 Placed :P Starting Bank:1000 points Current Bank:1356.56 points Total Staked:350 Yield:102% Anyone put doubles on the selections? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I put doubles on Stamford Blue and AliceinWonderland . Thank you Richards for graet picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Statford 2.30 Who Cares Wins (9/2 - Ladbrokes) 10 Points EW Great choice in theory at the moment, and Ladbrokes have a good price here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Thats it really. Im going to monitor the 3.40 at Kempton, theres no chance of an addition for my system but if one horse becomes a marignally bigger favourite then il take that horse on each way because the odds are so high. The forms of the horses in that race gives nothing away! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Wolverhampton 8.00 Agilete (4/1 - Betfred) 10 Points EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) One placed and one won. Starting Bank:1000 points Current Bank:1396.56 Total Staked:390 Total Bets:20 Yield:102% Its becoming impossible to keep the yield above 100%!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted September 2, 2006 Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) well done Richards a constant stream of winners since you started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I got 4 doubles on the wolverhampton races, 3 have won so far and waiting on the fav in the 9.30 in a minute. Theyl be checkin whether its a scandal!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted September 2, 2006 Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) This is fantasitic system so far....keep it up !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 2, 2006 Author Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Thanks again for the support,.. i want this sytem to stop me having to work while im at uni, 100 pound a week would be cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 2, 2006 Share Posted September 2, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Hello richards1986, great to see you doing so well. Don't worry about 100% yield, if you can maintain it at 10% you are getting excellent margins, 100% just shows that you had a bloody good idea and that you have an excellent selection method. I am totally impressed and I'm starting to think that this will work even on Betfair, with place markets less attractive for backers. Remember, don't get sloppy or overconfident, you are doing great and you deserve to do so, and I hope you can make enough to have yourself a nice little second payroll. But remember it takes work, and also a bit of luck, so that's what I wish you, good luck and long may the profit continue! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) 2.40 Lingfield Young Bertie (5/1 - SportingOdds) 10 Points EW I bet on Young Bertie the other day, but Betfair claims it hasnt run for over 20+ days, how confusing is this...could anyone clarify this for me? Only bet really for today i think, il just check if i can get 4/1 on the horses in the other 2 races i was looking at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) 3.50 Worcester Orion Express (4/1 - William Hill) 10 Points EW The only bookie offering this price, and its now high enough to take on for my system wooohoooooo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 3, 2006 Author Share Posted September 3, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Not happy at all about having one loser and one place, will update bank tomoz when im in a better mood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 4, 2006 Author Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Starting Bank:1000Points Current Bank:1376.56Points Total Staked:430 Total Bets:22 Yield:88% Young Bertie only won the other day cause the odds on favourite pulled out so i shouldve known better. I made a mistake with it because its odds werent even twice less than the price of the 5th favourite, this is all in heind-sight of course. I guess a Yield around 50% is more realistic, even though it will probably be alot less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 4, 2006 Author Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) 5.20 Warwick Choristar (11/2 - Sporting Odds) 10 Points EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted September 4, 2006 Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Thanks again for the support' date='.. i want this sytem to stop me having to work while im at uni, 100 pound a week would be cool.[/quote'] Theirs no doubt you've had a fantastic start with your system of picking winners but somewhere along the line you will hit a bad set of results and thats when if you were relying on the money for other things it can get out of hand. I know the work load and the cost of going to uni as my daughter finished thier the other year. Your system could continue in the same vain and I hope it does but what happens in the winter months when these races will no longer be around on the flat.Anyway whatever degree you are doing at uni I hope you achieve them as you have all your life a head of you. Best of luck at Uni. % MAN :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 4, 2006 Author Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) 2.40 Bath Jawaab (4/1 - Bet365) 10 Points EW Cheers % man, thats the trend off of the Adrian Massey site yeah?, My strike rate should go down for winners then. Is there more NR's in the winter aswell because the conditions can be more extreme, that will effect my system severely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted September 4, 2006 Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Once the 1st week in Nov is over thats the end of Turf racing in this country until the last week in March 2007. Then the all weather gets into full swing and also the Jump season. With the AW I think the fields are restricted to 14 runners max at all timesso you would be down to 3 places only. Now whether your system would work over the jumps is another matter as the SPs tend to be a lot shorter and to be honest I don't think you will get that many races with 16+runners with your other critiera comming into play on a daily basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 4, 2006 Author Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) There is so much more to find out about horse racing, I used to hate it but now i am actually really interested in learning more, so thanks for informing me of how the season changes. Yeah well i might stop my system before it gets to that point anyway. Everyone gets the jist of it so there wont be much point posting selections continually, when Ive mad enough bets so the yield cant change by more than 5% each day il be able to see whether its good in the long run. Im not really sure how long that will take though... PS Jawaab looks like a bad selection the way the betfair market is going.... :S Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 4, 2006 Author Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) One loser and One placed, which is a good result considering how many outsiders won today, not even sure a favourite did win at all today. Il update the bank at another time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 5, 2006 Author Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) 4.00 Catterick Sir Orpen (4/1 - Skybet) 10 Points EW 13 horse race, have to get used to this happening in the changing season But the 4th favourite is still more than twice the price of Sir Orpen on the Betfair market which should make it a good selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 5, 2006 Author Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Loads of favourites won today, Sir Orpen came last lol. Lots of fluctuation now. Starting Bank:1000 Points Current Bank:339.06 Points Total Staked:490 Totals Bets:25 Yield:69% *Wolf Whistles* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Hi mate As I've said before you may have a good system and its quite easy to back check 4/1 Favs but a lot of work involved in checking if 4th in betting was double the odds of Fav. You may have started the thread at the right time of the year but once into Sep and Oct things can take a turn for the worst. The only true way to find out is to back check over at least the past 5 years and if shown a profit every year you should be onto a winner. On the other hand it may perform extremly well in certain months and be compleat rubbish in others. The worst senario being if it is just a flash in the pan but without any form of past results before you started the thread one as to take it on this years results which have been excellent. Providing you can hit 1 winner and 1 placed in every 4 runners you would show a 1pt profit which is a 12.5% profit which is about 3 x the best interest from the bank which would be great. You say you are new to racing and when your first thread starts of so well you think you have opened Aladins cave but no matter how good the system their will be some bad times as well. What you also have to take into consideration is just because a System as a 33.3% winners all the time [1 in 3 ] you could still hit a period of 12 and the worst senario of 24 lossers on the trot but over a long period you would still achieve 1 in 3 winners and your starting bank must be the worst senario x your stake to allow for this if it should ever happen. Keep up the good work % MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted September 5, 2006 Author Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Thanks mate. i dunno, i was listening to sporting life and the races i bet on are the ones they stay well clear of!!! also, on the commentary it sounds like the races are far less clearcut when they are going up hill or doing jumps as you say. Yer i thought i had opened Aladdin's Cave but i only just started listening to commentary today and to be honest the amounts of winners ive had thus far has surprised me so much! It just seemed too clear cut. But alot of my selections have been 16+ runners and its been hard to find races with that many racers or ones where its likely there wont be a NR on 16 runners the last 4 days!!! I dont think ive had many unplaced horses at all where 16 have actually run. It seems to be slipping away, but then again, im supersticious and ive been betting bigger stakes the last 4 days than i have been previously, thats why i got so pissed off the other day! I think i will stop betting if the next two days are unsuccessful, but i will carry on posting for the sole basis that i can analyse the findings throughout the change in season :) You were right from the start though mate and i thank you for your advice, all threads are here to educate people who read them about how to beat the bookmaker and things to avoid in bets and i hope this will help some people! (If they are interested). Last week Sir Orpen wouldve been one of my best choices BASED ON THE ORIGINAL CRITERIA OF THE SYSTEM, im becoming increasing sceptical of the whole system now and a bit dissapointed. Hope it picks up.....:( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Discipline and perseverence will see you through. And you better test something for a while before putting real money down... Also if you start to win don't increase your bets without studying how that may affect your bank if you hit a losing run when you increase. These are all mistakes I did in the past 6 months and my best advice to you is don't wast your money, plan very well what you do with it. And all systems have bad spells, that's the hard part, going through it. Hope it turns for you and good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Did you test your theory by checking with historical data? When I checked your idea with historical data the results were not encouraging in relation to 16+ handicaps. If you access Andrian Masssey's website it is possible to check scenarios with data going back several years. For example before being committed to the Slapdash method I ran a number of stimulation plus that proved conclusively by mathematical and statistical methods that this method could not lose in the long run. I have in truth operate this technique with my bets for years but had not looked at these type of bets in isolation. I don't follow his E/W method blindly but apply conventional form analysis to assist plus also I'm prepared to operate the method much closer to the starting time. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.