richards1986 Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Wexford was 1/5 for 1-2-3 so a miss, lost 50p 2day on selection. Will update tomoz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Chester 3.25 Easy Air 10 points EW (5/1 - williamhill) Cape 5.00 Newmarket 10 points EW (4/1 - sportingodds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) one loser (easy air) and one winner (cape) today. Starting bank:1000 Current bank(approx):1073.26 Total Staked:150 Yield: 49% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) beverly 16.40 circuit Dancer (9/2 - Coral) 10 Points Ew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) curragh 16.40 quinmaster (6/1 - Paddypower) 10points Ew bit Of A Risk With So Many Runners (24) So Favourite Is Much Less Likely To Win, But Paddy Power Are Paying For 5 Places! :d Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) One places (Circuit Dancer) and the other won (quinmaster). Starting Bank:1000 points Current Bank: 1153.26 points ? Total staked: 190 Yield : 81% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) blimey Richards, it looks to be going well. Will keep an eye on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Yes, this is a great Yield, excellent, if you keep it up you'll have to change your username to RichardsFerrari or something. Keep it up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Chepstow 4.15 Good Article (9/2 - Bet365) 10 Points EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Its a good start, but consistency is the key so only time will tell if its any good. although if i put it into perspective, i can post 8 more cafefully planned bets on favourites and only if they all lose will i be in the red! 4.50 might throw something up later. Maybe i bit risky posting chepstow so early when betfair has only been fixed for about half an hour, hmm we'l see. Thanks for the support!!! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Well the 4.15 Chepstow has now been cut to 15 runners, UKBetting right now will give 4/1 with 4 places paid still for Good Article, and that is the best value at the moment although alot of bookmakers are still paying for 4 places on SP, SportingOdds may give better value but im not sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) 4.30 Newcastle Plemont Bay (6/1 - William Hill) 10 Points EW Price wont last long! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Bit reluctant to post this one...but what the hec it does fit the system; 4.50 chepstow Red Rudy (4/1 - Bet365) 5 Points EW There we go, posting more than i wouldve liked because i do enjoy being selective when going through the races. Anyhow, there may be more from the Irish races later! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Red Rudy and Good article won, Plemont came fourth but because there was damned NR im not sure if William Hill were still paying for 4 places. Il investigate. in the mean time: Starting bank:1000points Current bank: 1278.26points (1258.26 PLEMONT BAY RECTIFIED). Total Staked:230points (250points PLEMONT BAY RECTIFIED). Yield:121% (103% PLEMONT BAY RECTIFIED). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) :ok :ok WELL DONE :ok :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) This is going well! Keep it up! I'd be a bit careful with the races which drop to less than 16 runners. In most cases where the bookies' sites or odds comparison sites say they're still paying for four places, I think it's probably a mistake. If it's the bookie's own site and the horse comes fourth, then of course you have an argument for being paid, but I think you'd have a struggle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I placed the bet when it was first 4 places paid and then the non-runner happened just before, so i did query it with them. I shouldve been nicer but i was just pissed off cuz when we bet on your system if a favourite drops out they put a rule 4 on, and they should do a similar rule system instead of taking away that 3rd or 4th place GRRR. Its all done for them and not the customer!!! i stopped moaning when Red Rudy and Good article double came in though :) They also mentioned that if a favourite pulls out and the rule 4 comes into place and you ask to cancel the bet they will only do it as a 'goodwill gesture'. When i place a bet from your system, i do it for the value of the odds. If a horse pulls out then i know i probably wouldnt have made that bet in retrospect so i shouldnt have to carry on with that bet, it justs baffles me a little bit...I guess im being a bit of an anorak but i do think they should keep all 4 places if the field goes down to 15. I think i read that betfair do? It all appears to be double standards to me. Oh well, at the moment im taking money off the company i am talking about and i hope it continues! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Richards1986, great system. I am thinking of following your system on betfair, is this stupid or also profitable? Best wishes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I dont look to see if the bookmakers have better value compared to betfair, so yes betfair will earn you MORE money and have better odds. But im 19, ive only got a visa elctron card, and their asking for photocopies of my birth certificate cause its not a credit card i think, just debit?? :sad I dont even use more than 3 betting companies 'cause i dont want all my account details on so many sites. So i just stick with bet365 which is quite reasonable but Sportingodds may intice me as a customer if their odds carry on being the best! Uhm i wouldnt advise you betting just yet...i have made 260 quid in 5 days but what any system should strive for is consistency. I would wait at least a fortnight or even a month. I pass the buck from any success of this onto slapdash:clap ..........And all the moderators of this site of course. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) OK, I'll take a look at how this would have performed in the past month or more using betfair, which means 1/4 average for place and 4 places even if there are non-runners. I suppose that could make a difference. I'll make a gross estimate and post the results here when I have them, so that anyone looking to follow your system on betfair can have an idea of how the system performs. The idea is great, anyway, keep it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) OK but i dont go for EVERY race which is a 16+ runner handicap with favourite at 4/1 or over.... so it will be accurate but not completely. The fifth favourites odds is a very critical factor, but i look forward to hearing the results of your analysis! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Another idea: why not extend your way of thinking to races that pay 3 places and have favourites of 3/1 or more (and the 4th fav has odds more than double the fav). If you find value in your approach, this would also make sense, right? I'll have a look at this and tell you something. Meanwhile I'll keep a close look on your system. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morselis Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I think page of Adrian Massey can help you GL, art Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) OK, forget it, place odds will be 1/5, don't think it works... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Yeah the idea is that 1/4 for the place on horses as 4/1 favourites. SO if the fav gets in the top 4 I lose Nothing. And they have a s/r chance of about 20% to win according to adrian massey i think. And when there is 16+ runners the range between the 1st and 5th fav horse is bigger. Today i think Good Article had 9/2 and 5th fav was around 15 on betfair, big difference eh? Some races will have 4/1 favourite in 16+ race but on betfair 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th fav are between 5/1 and 9/1, this is much more risky, and i wouldnt really advise this pick unless there was no others for the day. If tommorrow you compare the selections i put up to the horse 16+ handicaps i havent chosen to pick you should see a bit of a difference in the horses odds surrounding the fav :) I dont think i would do 8 horse races i would be making a loss on the place and i firmly believe the only way of making money on that type or race is slapdashs method. But there must be more out there i suppose. I have considered 12 or 13 horse races so its 3 places paid at 1/4 odds BUT i would avoid it in a 15 horse race usually. General pattern I've found is when there is less horses, the favourite has lower odds (but this is pretty obvious right). So very rarely would there be 4/1 worth backing with only 12 horses running. Another thing i would say is when there are less horses the odds are tighter between the horses.....when the favourite starts at a high price like 4/1 anyway, so there will be a cluster of horses which have a pretty similar chance to eachother, this decreases the chance of the horse Winning severly, and if there are enough horses between 4/1 and 7/1 say, its a risk it might not even place i guess. Hope this has clarified what you were wondering :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Yes, it has, and may I say you seem to understand the mechanism of your system very well, I understand and agree to everything you said, so I'll just keep a look on your thread and hopefully back some of your selections on betfair when you have a good set of data to analyze and refine (if there is any refinement to a 100% ROI system!!!!!!!!). I wish you the best of luck with this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 29, 2006 Author Share Posted August 29, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Ok, I will post at about 1.30-2.00 if the odds seperate in the 3.00 at Sedgefield, very few races are on today. Bluesq still paying for 4 places at 1/4 odds, i looked on www.oddschecker.com and then went onto the bluesq site just to be doubly sure. I think that another horse will prob drop out by 3pm though, but i hope not as this will mean first 3 for places paid, and the top 5 horses odds look quite congested ATM as it is! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 29, 2006 Author Share Posted August 29, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) The 3.40 at Tralee has a horse i would certainly go for if i could get 4/1, at the moment its available at 7/2 with both Bet365 and Ladbrokes. It has a great chance of placing but that would result in a small loss, whilst having good chance of a win. I will add this to my system if anyone finds it at 4/1 before the race. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 29, 2006 Author Share Posted August 29, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Sedgefield 3.00 College City (4-1 bluesq) 10 points EW its seperated alot from the other, four other others are around 10 at the moment, while its stayed at 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 29, 2006 Author Share Posted August 29, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) College City was a NR, Bank unchanged..... Think you could've got Zulu Queen at 4/1 or more... minutes before the race, but the price must've rose from 3.5 on betfair so backing it would have been a risk, it didnt come anywhere in the end. TBH it got cut to 15 runners anyway so that was the biggest issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.