richards1986 Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 The brief basis of the system is to look for races which have 16+ runners and pay 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4 places...There may be exceptions when i choose 3 places paid but only if they pay 1/4 odds. Favourites will be at 4/1 and over, maybe 5/1. The idea is to bet on the favourite each-way for 4 places, whilst making a small profit or small loss for the place....which should occur quite often, there should be winning horses alot more often than other systems. Also, occasionaly i may feel it worth going for a 2nd or 3rd favourites if the odds range is great enough between other horses. This starts as paper system and i may be over-confident because favourites are seldom winners, but this could be potent. I would appreciate your support, and i think this is the sort of system which may be able to compete with alot of the other systems. BUT I DOUBT IT. I will look for other factors also though, having tried it today it is quite risky to still go for favourites when there are 5 other horses floating from between 6/1 to 10/1. Also, I have absolutely no idea how often these types of races occur each week and it may be that there arent that many at all. I will be using betfair to check the odd because they really show the outsiders odds slipping away more so than the big bookmakers. But use the bookmakers to bet on the horses! Please ask any questions, but this is my first system and it is no where near defined, and it will be amended as time goes on if it is successful. I would also appreciate any advice you may have also for improvements. Regards, Tom. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spithas Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Good luck!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) 1.35 York - Futun (4/1 skybet) EW 10 points. 4.45 Leicester - Sudden Impulse (9/2) EW 10 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Thanks, il do the afternoon ones later cause it takes time for the odds to seperate if u get me :D Oh and starting bank of 1000 points. Hmm same starting bank and points per bet as slapdash :p Sudden Impulse is 9/2 on bet365, VC bet etc use odds-checker, think im a little anxious hehe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Good luck with this Tom. Should be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annamarc Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Sounds interesting. Will follow - on paper of course ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I wont add this to my system but it will be interesting to see how Certain Justice will do in the 3.00 at Leicester. Totalbet are offering 1/4 1-2-3-4 still but there odds are lower at 11/2.....If the odds seperate between the horses considerably when it gets nearer the race i will choose this as a selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Good start! Futun came last hahaha! All good systems get off to a bad start ;) Im going to make Cartain Justice an official selection now but only on totalbet as their paying for 4 places. Odds are still 11/2 for that. EW 10 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Well mate you would have had KNOT IN WOOD yesterday at 4/1 and I wish you all the best with this idea. Thier was also another Idea to do with backing horses in races were the Fav was 3 to 1 or greater but does not matter how many runners but you do the following. 3/1 fav back 1st 3 in betting to 1pt win each 4/1 fav 1st 4 in betting to 1pt win each 5/1 fav ist 5 in betting to 1pt win If the Fav wins you make 1pt profit in each case and if one of the other wins you will make more depending on SPs and may be a better approach when considering doing 2nd and 3rd Favs as well as you said in your 1st thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I won on knot in wood yesterday and also London Express thats what inspired me but it only worked yesterday. Well my plan is to still make a profit on the likelihood of the horse placing, i know which favourites are best to go for and they are the ones where the 5th favourite is more than double the odds of the horse im going for, that is enough of an advantage for me to take. which is why the horse on the 3.00 is a risk, but this is only a paper test at the moment. I am so very confident that there must be profitability in this system in some form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) After reading your thread ran your Idea through Massey's reports and one thing that showed up very well was WHEN THE Sps were 4/1 Favs or jt only, 16runners + and 4,5,6,7, and 8yr olds only with good profits over last three years. Also found that their may be more profit to be found if only certain courses are used with some showing up to nearly a 30% s/rate Like you say I'm sure their is something to be found in your approach but just needs some tweaking along the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I know nothing about horses. Is that strike rate for winners, or winners and placed horses. If thats the strike rate for horses getting in the top 4 it might not be worthwhile because im going for horses with odds between 4/1 and 8/1 max i suspect. If i had a good knowledge of horses and course history i could be more selective. *sobs* Im only 19 so i got many years to come up with a perfecto systeeeeemo. woohooo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) 8.24 Kempton - Dark parade (5/1 sportingodds) EW 5 points. Not so sure about this 3 places paid but more runners than i would ideally want (14) which explains less points placed on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Certain Justice placed and Sudden Impulse a winner. A profitable start: well done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I cant work out the profit iv made so far, im so useless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I know nothing about horses. Is that strike rate for winners, Thats the strike rate for winners 4/1 only. Also the trouble you might now find is the field sizes for a lot of handicaps have beem reduced to 14 runner fields so therefore only 1st 3 count. Also noticed it did not perform well on AW. You also mention you are new to the game with a lot to learn and that puts you a step in the right direction in my eyes. One thing also to look at is if your selection have run within 41 to 60 days and ridden by a top jockey as these win more than the average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Dark parade and Futun Unplaced, Sudden Impulse won and Certain Justice was placed. Im not sure but i think about....... Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: 1048.76 :S Or around about that. (if anyone wants to correct me feel free). ..............Sorry for editing one had to change bank............... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Just in case you arent sure, general rule is that the races you want are 16+ runner handicaps. Non handicaps only pay first 3. You might do well with the places but not too keen on the win part. This is coming from someone that is fanatical about laying favs in handicaps though. Also, as %Man pointed out, watch out for races with non runners. If the numbers drop below 16 you usually lose 4th place. Saying that, Betfair pay out on the place on the original number of runners so if there were originally 16 or more than you get 1st 4 no matter how many end up running. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 24, 2006 Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Richards1986, good luck with this idea, think it may be interesting. Well mate you would have had KNOT IN WOOD yesterday at 4/1 and I wish you all the best with this idea. Thier was also another Idea to do with backing horses in races were the Fav was 3 to 1 or greater but does not matter how many runners but you do the following. 3/1 fav back 1st 3 in betting to 1pt win each 4/1 fav 1st 4 in betting to 1pt win each 5/1 fav ist 5 in betting to 1pt win If the Fav wins you make 1pt profit in each case and if one of the other wins you will make more depending on SPs and may be a better approach when considering doing 2nd and 3rd Favs as well as you said in your 1st thread. I quicly checked the last couple of weeks on this idea, and applying a very simple filter of minimum number of runners per different SP, came up with 44 pts profit in less than 2 weeks, if you back each horse with 1 point, yield around 15%. I'll keep checking back to the beggining of August and if it seems profitable I'll post something here. Might be a good idea for another system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I cant see any i like for today and im going into Brighton in a bit so il have a check as soon as i get back in on the races which are then available. Motu in the 17.25 at Musselburgh is the only horse i would consider for today (7/2 - bluesq.com) but it doesnt even really fit the criteria, its odds are too short. later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Thanks workingfortheEnemy for certain justice i used oddschecker to see if any bookies were paying 4 places in a 15 runner race and totalbet were yesterday, theres usually one or two who decide to i have found? Thanks for the research from some of you guys. The % man and pinhofap i think, do you think i should lower my stakes? 10points EW is a bit harsh for my first & second day probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Redcar 7.30 - That Look (SP - Skybet,Coral) this is now a selection!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) OOPS 5 points EW on that one^^^^^^ Another in the 8.00 again at redcar. Dazzler Mac (4/1 - Bet365) 10 points EW on that one :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I could go for Vicky Lane in the 8.05 at Tipperary, its look quite a tasty bet but im going to head advice given earlier in the thread and opt out 'cause the horse hasnt raced in over 200 days!! :D:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Dazzler Mac lost, that look placed. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank (approx): 1033.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Stormy Monday at the 4.30 in Salisbury. (9/2 - bluesq). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) Only selection for today althought theres 1 at wexford i believe that might develop. 10 points EW on the horse above^^^^^. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) It's 4:50 not 4.30 ;) Good luck from me too !! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 Re: Horse-Shoe Systems Ltd. (CopyRight Protected) I will probably post a selection for the 7.55 at Wexford later, the favourites are winning in the races im selecting but im posting the favourite horse in the morning around 11 and by the time the race starts, there is a different favourite and that horse is winning....well it happened twice. Post later i expect :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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