ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Dasco gets broken and the price shoots to 7, I lumped @ 6.8 which is more than enough value for me. Nadal hasn't even served yet, how can they justify a 75% increase one one service game:\ And he breaks back:D back to 3.15 - Missed Mirnyi's break to get in before it, ah well, should have some value (I see a 3 setter - Blewitt is a grinder) Yeah, not tryin' to 'after-event' just don't know how else to mention in play moves. :\

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

if nadal was underrated yesterday' date=' there seems to have been a market over-reaction to his win today. there isn't much liquidity in the set betting market atm, but if he's still around 1.7 to beat verdasco in straight sets tomorrow then it's a value lay I reckon.[/quote'] :clap Great find! I know you're prolly distracted by the Cup, but hope you got some of that!

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June 7? ****ing hell. Wish I'd seen that. Great stuff so far from 'dasco.

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Not won yet, though it's still above 1.7 with one set in the bag and 1-1 on serve in the second. If I wasn't in so much already I'd add to it on that. Would have to look it up, but I can't recall directly too many situations where 'dasco has won the first and lost the other two. ... 2-1* 1.49 Just took a small (7pts) punt on Mirnyi @ 3.9 *5-1 Mirnyi seemed to lose focus and should reset to make the third close. Mirnyi's losing it (as opposed to Hewitt winning it) so it's a medium chance.

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Screwed by the TB .... twice c'mon 'dasco

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Good in-running stuff guys:ok. Tomorrow looks awesome, triple revenge for Henman and Hewitt teaching Nadal a lesson:nana :nana. I'll probably be playing these two, hopefully get some good prices:hope. Soderling did the job for me, now -0.6pts for the week:wall

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

:clap Great find! I know you're prolly distracted by the Cup, but hope you got some of that!

nah, I was planning to check again this morning but completely forgot unfortuneately. I had backed 'dasco at 4 pre-match and laid him after the first set. He was looking good so it was just a small lay. Left me just +1pt on a Nadal win with big green on 'dasco. Not a complete disaster then, but it should've been a whole lot better.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Queens
Selection	HENMAN v Tursunov
Strength	10/10
Date	16/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	We all know the story here, so no need to go over all that. I just fancy Henman in this one. I've been impressed with him in all of the matches this week, and similar form should make this a great match. Not sure Tursunov is playing well though, even Bogdanovic took him to a tiebreak in the first round! Since then he's lost sets to Udomchoke and Jimmy Wang and that isn't too inspiring. I've got to say it haven't I? H2H is 3-0 to Tursunov, including at Wimbledon last year. However, Henman had back problems in two of those matches and still they were pretty close. I really like the way Tim is playing this tournament so far, and I think he can get a huge win here. £330 available.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Queens
Selection	HEWITT v Nadal
Strength	10/10
Date	16/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 1.66 (Back)
Reasoning	The big question right now is how could is Nadal on grass? After the Fish against hope expectation was high but against Verdasco he was totally ouplayed. It's only the fact that Verdasco got injured and, as one of our friends likes to say; Nadal OWNS Verdasco, that he managed to scrap through. We saw today how limited his game is on grass and I'm sure Hewitt can expose that. Hewitt gave Nadal a very good game on clay at the French (Better than expected) and I think that bodes very well for him here. That made the H2H 3-1 to Hewitt. Hewitt had a tough one today against Mirnyi but he's always going to course problems and it's just good that he got through. Fully expect him to give Nadal a lesson.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Queens
Selection	MONFILS v Blake
Strength	10/10
Date	16/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 2.37 (Back)
Reasoning	Since slipping and sliding his way around in the first round Monfils has really got his game together. He blew Reynolds away and today was very effective against Ljubicic. That was a good win for him and he looks to be really growing into this tournament. Blake dropped a set to Ginepri today and by all accounts really struggled to get through that match. He's been struggling to close matches out in the past few months and if he gets into that situation here Monfils should be able to fight back. I don't think Blake will have that opportunity though as Monfils is improving all the time from this surface, looks a lot more solid than Blake from the back and is serving really well. H2H is 1-0 to Monfils winning in 5 sets at the French a couple of weeks ago. I'm not even sure Blake should be favourite for this, so we have to have a go at this price.

May also play Roddick and Vliegen, but I'll decide tomorrow;)

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June brave call taking henman against his nemesis. I agree with Monfils. I haven't seen Blake at all this week but from what I've seen of Monfils I can't understand why he's the underdog here.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

brave call taking henman against his nemesis.

I know, I'm scared:$ :$. All I have is Henmania and a slice backhand on my side:lol

I agree with Monfils. I haven't seen Blake at all this week but from what I've seen of Monfils I can't understand why he's the underdog here.

I saw Blake against Gimelstob and in the first set Blake was poor. Gimelstob had a lot of chances and should have broken at least twice but couldn't put the crucial point away. He was certainly the better player in the first set. After that he fell away quite a bit, serve went off, and Blake was able to walk away with it.

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

nah, I was planning to check again this morning but completely forgot unfortuneately. I had backed 'dasco at 4 pre-match and laid him after the first set. He was looking good so it was just a small lay. Left me just +1pt on a Nadal win with big green on 'dasco. Not a complete disaster then, but it should've been a whole lot better.

Yeah, when I go into in-play I tend to cover first by laying the 2-0 sweep and playing out from there. Worked ok against blake, nadal and blewitt. Lost against Haas. So ended up evening out for the trip. Laying out was a good idea, thought about it... but with a 6.8 grab and a 6-2 first set the value looked too good ;) Went to bed in the third set (almost 4 am here!). I mentioned somewhere that level staking all dogs in the first week of grass would be a solid idea, but not back tested (can't find historical odds for tennis). Pissed at myself for not jumping in it, so many dogs winning in the first two rounds and some dog value tonight... Like Blewitt and Henman unless the value on the dogs goes above three. Blewitt hasn't exactly looked solid though this surface may help him where the clay couldn't. Nadal has been a monster when it comes to tiebreaks, and could use that against a Blewitt who can't hold a break all that well. Dimi does have a 3-0 H2H and generally more power, but Henman has a good thing here and Dimi has looked shaky against mediocre players. If Monfils goes up it may be worth a dabble (now @ 2.4). Blake folded to him once, hasn't looked convincing so far and Monfils has won well as a dog twice and beat a quallie with a heavy serve. Roddick value? Too many injury concerns lately for me, add to that an easy draw and Gonzo doing pretty well, not for me. Berd should do ok against Sant. Santoro really had a hardtime against Clement (who has played very little this year due to injuries) Sat on duece most of the match. Vligen looks the goods, but I expected Mayer out already.. so seems like the odds are spot on, it's a flip of a coin. Liking Bartoli, Zvon and Jackson in the WTA. Zvon has pretty much blitzed through the tourny so far, Bartoli hasn't done too bad but has sat in three sets all the way through (in play value?). Jackson has already won as a sizeable dog this week and could come back for more.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Monfils retires after the first set, not sure why, thankfully bet365 will void that:tongue2

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Queens
Selection	RODDICK v Gonzalez
Strength	10/10
Date	16/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 1.44 (Back)
Reasoning	This is a standout price from Skybet, and is certainly worth a go IMO. I know Roddick has had some form and injury concerns this year but now back on the grass I fully expect him to get it together. Since 2000 he is 45-8 on grass and 17-1 at Queens - only loss coming against Youzhny in his first visit in 2001. He's won the title for the past 3 years and I think he'll be very tough to beat again this year. He looks to be working himself into form, it wasn't great against Dancevic but he looked imroved against Srichaphan and I expect another improvement today. Gonzalez will be a threat, but I'm not sure he can sustain it long enough; you always feel he's going to miss a few in one game and lose his serve once a set, and breaking A-Rod will be very tough. He's beaten Dupuis and Philippoussis so far, neither are great wins, and he has laboured in both. H2H is 4-2 to Roddick.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Halle
Selection	VLIEGEN v Mayer
Strength	10/10
Date	16/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.84 (Back)
Reasoning	This looks like being a close game, so just take your pick, and I fancy Vliegen. I've mentioned Mayer all week and even though he beat Nieminen I don't think he's playing too well. I'm more interested in Vliegen in this one, as I've been impressed with him this week. He had a shocking record of 2-7 on grass before this tournament, and I'm not quite sure why that is as he's very good on quick surfaces. Anyway, he looks to have sorted it out and has had a couple of decent wins against Wawinka and Chiudinelli. I expect that form to continue and I think he's a solid pick in this one.

[davidmphill]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June At last Henman manages to beat his nemesis Tursonov and in straight sets too. A poor game by all accounts.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

At last Henman manages to beat his nemesis Tursonov and in straight sets too. A poor game by all accounts.

Aye, Tursunov didn't play too well. But Henman put him away when it mattered and is still yet to drop a set this week. Next up is Hewitt or Nadal - neither look too scary at the moment, and we should get some juicy odds on Tim against either of them;).

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Did you see Tursunov at the final set point in the first? haha, what a complete and utter nutcase. I did Monfils on betfair. What a sickener.

[davidmphill]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Quite shocked to see Nadal take the first set off Hewitt.

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June I was on Nadal. betfair as well. Just one of those days.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Had Hewitt at bet365. So that's 1-1 on retirements for me today, both voided:wall. Federer took 3 tie breaks to beat Rochus, looks like facing Haas in the next round, and he could cause even more problems, could even be worth backing Haas:eek. But even on a day like this, you can rely on Englands finest:D.

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June All I know is that I'm soooo glad the odds didn't go where I wanted them. Stayed too short for me to play the dogs so I did some AFL and went to bed. :\ A night of pure favourites winning, would have caught me out. Congrats I, looks like a perfect night on the picks.:clap Aus vs GBR in the semis ;) Lucky for you I'm an import and can't stand Blewitt so I won't put the punterslounge curse on Henman :tongue2 Don't know if I'll play the semis or not, tend to lose from here on out and only 15pts down for the week (in-play included). Will decide later Watch out for the injury rules on where you bet, Henman's back and Blewitt's ankle could come up in what should be a long match (Blewitt is a grinder) Roddick's confidence should be up and could very well take Blake down. 3 set play? Another injury rule concern... If it's a Henman and Roddick show the curse is on :lol

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

A night of pure favourites winning, would have caught me out. Congrats I, looks like a perfect night on the picks.:clap

Cheers mate, ended up 3-0 and 2 voids, now +20.7pts for the week.

Lucky for you I'm an import and can't stand Blewitt so I won't put the punterslounge curse on Henman :tongue2

I'm going to be all over Henman in this one, he's rolling back the years just like he's rolling over his backhand:tongue2. I thought Hewitt was shocking today against Nadal, very lucky boy to come through.

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June When was the last time two english men (or 1 and a half english men:lol :lol )!!! were in the final of any ATP event? Blakes mum is english so he is half english I would like a Henman vs Blake final! Don't think I'll play tomorrow, should be two great matches though COME ON HENMAN!!!! but Hewitt leads 8-1 in H2H :eek although henman did win last encounter in Miami. Blake has never beaten Roddick in all seven matches they've played!

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June I'm down about 15pts after today's shambles. I've put 20 on Roddick in the outright market, which will almost certainly be my last punt of the week. I only saw bits of his match against Gonzo today but he seemed to be cruising. He's now won 18 in a row at Queen's and the venue seems to bring out the best in him. He has a 6-0 h2h record with Blake so this should hopefully see me through to the final at least. He's 2.1 at stan james.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Queens
Selection	RODDICK v Blake
Strength	10/10
Date	17/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 1.38 (Back)
Reasoning	Really can't see much hope for Blake in this one. I don't think he's playing too well and was lucky that Monfils was injured or I don't think he'd still be in the tournament. Roddick has improved in each match this week, and looks to be in some very good form. I mentioned before the Gonzo match his astounding record here, and that now stands at 18-1. He was dominant on serve against Gonzalez and never looked troubled at all in that match. Blake has had a lot of problems returning Roddicks serve in the past and the way Roddick served today, I don't think he's suddenly going to figure it out. H2H is a commanding 7-0 to Roddick and he hasn't dropped a set in the last 5 meetings. £2714 available.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Queens
Selection	HENMAN v Hewitt
Strength	10/10
Date	17/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 2.94 (Back)
Reasoning	Yeah Henman wasn't great today against Tursunov, but he kept his game tight when it mattered and recorded a straight sets win against his nemesis Tursunov. Now he faces another nemisis in Hewitt, who holds an 8-1 H2H lead over Tim. However, Tim did win the last meeting this year and a lot has changed since most of there meetings in 2002 and 2004. Hewitt is nowhere near the level he was then, and you could say the same about Henman, however, that could well work to Henmans advantage. Back in the day Henman would be serve-volleying and chip-charging most of the points, and that totally played into Hewitts hands. Nowadays Henman is a lot more content and capable from the back and Hewitt will not have an easy target. Henmans looks to be near top form and we must give him respect for coming through so far in straight sets - in fact, I don't think he's been a break down in a set either (please correct me if I'm wrong). I thought Hewitt was playing pretty well this week, but the Nadal match was the first I'd actually seen of him. I thought he was shocking to be blunt, his serve was off, he wasn't solid from the back and nowadays he almost looks slow (but that's probably just against Nadal!). In this match we must go for the Englishman at home and in form, especially at this sort of price, which is being serverely influenced by the H2H record. £620 available.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Halle
Selection	Will Berdych win 2-0 v Vliegen? NO
Strength	10/10
Date	17/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.82 (Back)
Reasoning	I'm really not sure where all this fair in Berdych is coming from. I've been backing the guy all year and he's been a constant dissapointment. I think he's got a great game for grass but he isn't excecuting it well enough yet and especially he's not returning well enough on it yet. This week he beat German kid Becker, then had a massive 3 set battle with Novak and beat Santoro in 2 very tight sets. That's not too bad but his performances haven't been great and certainly don't warrant the general 1.44 he is to win here. I've been impressed with Vliegen, as I mentioned yesterday he's got a shocking record on this surface but this week he looks like putting that right. He came through a tight one against Mayer yesterday and I can see this one being equally tight. H2H is 3-0 to Berdych but all 3 were in challengers a long time ago so I'll ignore that. I'm not sure if Vliegen has enough to get the win, but he can make this tough, and with the amount of inconsistancy we've seen from Berdych, this is a good price to oppose to 2-0.

[godofhorses]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Roddick v blake- totally agree with last users comments- Best to back the correct score rather than the outright 2-0 1.98 2-1 @ 4.3 for a cover. henman v hewitt- have to disagree on this 1. Hewitt is coming into some form. He said he's playing he's best tennis for a long while. Whilst i won't be backing anything in this 1 as im a brit. I can't see past a Hewitt win. Bets for me 2-0 41 points. roddick 2-1 18 points roddick Rodick to win outright 40 points @ 2.06

[reyna12]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Surely fitness plays a big part in that game, Blake only beat Monfils yesterday then went on to lose a doubles with fish the same day. Forgive me if i don't know enough about tennis :)

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Surely fitness plays a big part in that game, Blake only beat Monfils yesterday then went on to lose a doubles with fish the same day. Forgive me if i don't know enough about tennis :)

In certain cases I'd call this a factor but not today mate. Looking at the score against Monfils I think we have to assume that Monfils was playing injured for most of that set and in that case it would have just been a warm up for Blake. Also playing doubles is a lot less physically demanding than singles and grass is less physically demanding than other surfaces like clay. Bjorkman/Minryi are an awesome doubles team, especially on grass, so there's no disgrace in losing to them. Thanks for the input though, and just lump on Roddick:tongue2 :ok

[Kiwi_punter]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June How much does Roger Federer usually pay to win by two sets to one in 3 set matches? His head to heads always have him at around 1.05-1.10 so I'm assuming his 2-1 win odds would be pretty high. I'm thinking of having a crack at a system of picking him to win by 2-1 in all 3 set matches and see how it goes.

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June 4ish from memory sometimes 5 depending on who it is