ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June 10pts Safin 2-0 over Serra @ 2 (Betfair) - Safin is finally off the clay and it should so. Serra is finally off the clay and it should show too. However, Serra's game (when it's actually in tune, which lately.. it hasn't been) is well suited to clay. Safin really should get some easy shots in this one, and start to build some momentum for the 'don. 10pts Molik over Zvonareva @ 2.16 (Betfair) - I'm still backing Molik as long as she keeps showing some positive gain in the comeback trail. I think she's sitting on the high side of evens because of her infection and the worries from that. However, she's had some reasonable success in the last couple of tournies on clay. I think she'll bring that here as well. 10pts Tursunov x Murray x Daniilidou x Bjorkman @ 2.90 (Centrebet) - I think that the first three will be happy to finally be out of the clay and on something they can play on with some moderate success. Bjorkman is my little 'worry' out of this pack, but I'm hoping that he'll bring some of that doubles magic over here for a quick 60% on the parlay.

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Chiudinelli looked great a while back, but now in the 1.6-7's I'm half tempted to back Rochus just to fade the public. GL on Gimelstob, Blake just looks too intent on doing something for me to push against him, Gimel beating Sluiter is far from a positive thing.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Chiudinelli looked great a while back, but now in the 1.6-7's I'm half tempted to back Rochus just to fade the public. GL on Gimelstob, Blake just looks too intent on doing something for me to push against him, Gimel beating Sluiter is far from a positive thing.

Chiu has been matched at 1.57 now:loon - it's getting a bit silly, I certainly wouldn't take him at 1.60:tongue2

[Tulenos]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Chiu has been matched at 1.57 now:loon - it's getting a bit silly' date=' I certainly wouldn't take him at 1.60:tongue2[/quote'] On the positive side - you can always lay him back and have a free bet @ 1.70:ok (or let it ride as well;))

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June 10pts Rochus over Chi @ 2.68 (Betfair) - Fading the public on a price that shouldn't be.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

On the positive side - you can always lay him back and have a free bet @ 1.70:ok (or let it ride as well;))

Let it ride baby:dude :dude :ok Was matched at 1.50 before the start:loon

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Molik pulled out and Safin paid for the fade, so even for the day pending one. From the later matches 10pts Grosjean 2-0 over Minar @ 1.56 (Betfair) - Grosjean has been a headcase lately on the clay side of things, but no one can deny how much success he's had on the grass at the 'don (QF, SF). Minar hasn't had any real success on grass over the past couple of years. Taking the 2-0 line for value, Grosjean is pretty good at sweeping his first round opponents. 10pts Bjorkman over Wang @ 1.69 (Betfair) - Bjorkman has had a lot of tennis lately, which is a worry. However, I think that is a good thing for him. Grass is something he can play on and I see him taking advantage of Wang. 10pts Moodie 2-0 over Mark @ 2.58 (Betfair) - Moodie blitzed through a challenger last week, taking out Arthurs in the process (whom I rate pretty high on grass). Mark lately has just sucked and I can't see him starting something against someone who has played a week of grass. Some liveplay happen'ins - Picked up Tips for 3 @ 5-4* (40-40) in the first and just grabbed Goldstein @ 8 at *0-3 in the third.

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June good old english summers.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Good day today, now +12.3pts for the tournament. ToJo plays tomorrow because of the rain. Also like to say well done to the schedules who have put out a sensible order of play tomorrow:clap :clap - remember play starts an hour earlier tomorrow;)

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Halle
Selection	NIEMINEN v Mayer
Strength	10/10
Date	14/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 1.72 (Back)
Reasoning	OK, OK, I know I was bigging up Mayer on grass yesterday but I can accept I was wrong (and still picked up a winner!). He was shocking against Phau and surely he won't get as many chances against a much better opponent in Nieminen. I mentioned Mayers strange style and if someone can be effective against it it's Nieminen as he plays in a pretty similar way. Nieminens record on grass isn't great but he does look to be improving on it and hasn't had many good draws in the past. He beat Kohlschreiber in the first round and the way he's been playing I think that's a pretty decent win, and good enough to make me think he can take out Mayer. H2H is 2-1 to Nieminen with both of his wins coming on hard courts this year.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Queens
Selection	MONFILS v Reynolds
Strength	10/10
Date	14/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingodds @ 1.44 (Back)
Reasoning	I mentioned after his first match that Monfils was hitting really well but having problems with his movement and slipping all over. I've decided to go to the side that he could get the movement sorted out then he will be very dangerous. He changed his shoes during the Melzer game which didn't work but he's had a couple of days to get it fixed. He's also on a different court this time and that may be better. Reynolds is a decent player but he only came through against a poor Kunitsyn in the first round so I don't think that's a big indicator of form. He has a big serve but is Monfils can get onto it this could be easily as he is far superior from the back.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Queens
Selection	VERDASCO v Lee
Strength	10/10
Date	14/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	VC Bet @ 1.83 (Back)
Reasoning	You'd expect this one to be tight but I really fancy the Spaniard to come through. He could have got into the main draw automatically but wanted to play qualifying to get extra matches (perhaps he's seen my Qualifiers thread??) and it's worked - he come through qualifying and was pretty good against Greul in the first round. He's got a decent record of 13-6 on grass but I think he's seen how his buddy Flic Lopez has done on grass and wants to get some of the action for himself. Lee has a decent record of 21-16 on grass but 6 of those wins came in qualifying and reaching the quarters here at Queens in 2004. Apart from that he's pretty average. He beat Mathieu in the first round here, but he nearly blew it against the Frenchman whose mind didn't seem to be on the job. I think Verdasco with his big game and lefty serve have a bit more to offer in the match, and he should be a decent favourite.

A few of the guys will have to play 2 matches tomorrow, hopefully the bookies get the prices up quickly and hopefully the weather is OK:hope :hope

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Hi All. I have a ticket for Court 1 on Friday :unsure :unsure doubles quarter finals?! :lol :lol maybe if this rain continues a singles men match will be on that court on friday :loon Nadal to beat Fish @ 2.10 Betfair Nadal not odds on against 86 ranked player = :loon :loon His form improved on hard court this season, beat Fish easily 6-1 6-4 in Indian Wells, yes Nadals form is suspect on grass, but he did get to Round 3 of wimbledon as 17 year old in 2003, he did beat Spadea in straight sets at wimbledon last year. Nadal would be long odds on if this was on clay or hard court against Fish. Worth taking a gamble at this fantastic price IMO. Who did Nadal beat in final of Dubai in Feb on hard court? It was Federer, many people think Nadal is simple just a clay courter. Yes Fish is in good form having won Surbiton, but Nadal is the bet.

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June 5-6 (-17.5pts) 3 matches + parlay postponed I'll take Jarkko before the market widens (expecting 1.3ish by match time) 10pts Jarkko over Mayer @ 1.62 6.2pts Jarkko 2-0 over Mayer @ 2.24 Depending on how fast it's playing, and looking at the early matches today to see if the weather slows it down some... If it gets slower leans on Gonzo 2-0, Nadal over Fish, Verdasco, and no value, but Monfils. Flip those if the speed stays high. I'm live scoring this one, so if someone up top watches any of the earlies can you throw a bone? Thanks

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

If it gets slower leans on Gonzo 2-0, Nadal over Fish, Verdasco, and no value, but Monfils. Flip those if the speed stays high. I'm live scoring this one, so if someone up top watches any of the earlies can you throw a bone? Thanks

In the UK we'll get Centre Court Queens all day - so that'll be Murray, Roddick, Henman, Nadal, Hewitt. Roddick could be a good indicator of the pace:unsure Good luck on Nadal Bob:ok. I couldn't go for it, would have been better if he had played the doubles today. Fish is on fire at the moment, and the win Nadal got in Indian Wells was when Fish was right at the start of his comeback and after he'd won consecutive matches for the first time. Should be great to watch.

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

... Nadal not odds on against 86 ranked player = :loon :loon

Keep in mind that out of both tournies, Fish has played the most on grass this year. He's 6-0 and has only lost one set throughout the run. He also went to the finals last year here (where he lost to Federer) and then had a solid start at the 'don, where again he lost to Federer. He also blitzed Baker like he was standing still yesterday - clearly he likes the grass. Nadal has improved on the faster surfaces and I highly agree with everything you're saying. However, the let down factor has to be considered. 86? He lost to Waske right after RG last year who was ranked 147 at the time. Solid value for Nadal? Yeah, but he should be odds against in this one.

[WinningTipster]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Hi guys, We continue with the following pick: WTA TOUR, DFS CLASSIC, BIRMIHGHAM JACKSON TO D BORWELL @ 1.25 on gamebookers Jackson, who is a very talented young American and plays at her best on grass is an overwhelming favourite against British wild-card ranked 257. You probably could go for 2-0 in sets for Jackson (1.61 @ bet365). www.WinningTipster.com

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Too late for Sports Punter but.... TIPSAREVIC v Ginepri @ 2.62 Ladbrokes 10pts Just fancy this after seeing Tipsareivc this morning. Murray wasn't great but Janko put him away pretty well and must be confident coming into the match this afternoon. Ginepri struggled against Goldstein quite a bit and I don't really feel him form has improved much from the awful stuff he's been doing all year. This will be a big hitting battle, and that will suit both guys, and I feel the odds should be much closer together.

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June 10pts Vligen x Grosjean x Davy @ 3.11 (Centrebet) - Taking form and class in a value parlay. 10pts Nadal over Fish @ 2.34 - mentioned info above, though it shouldn't have drifted this much. Nadal is pretty good about going 2-0 when he leads the h2h 1-0 than he does 1-1. Even though it's not his surface and it's the first match he's played on grass... I can't bring myself to fade him now. 10pts Dupuis over Gonzo @ 3.10 (Betfair) - Taking speed versus the clay courter. 10pts Udomchoke over Tursunov @ 4.6 - I'm going back to looking for value over should wins. Udomchoke could suprise Dimi here on speed and Dimi carried a lot of first serve faults in the last round. Udomchoke could very well keep the pressure on Dimi, and regardless of surface Dimi isn't exactly good with pressure situations.

[FootballTennis]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

10pts Vligen x Grosjean x Davy @ 3.11 (Centrebet) - Taking form and class in a value parlay. 10pts Nadal over Fish @ 2.34 - mentioned info above, though it shouldn't have drifted this much. Nadal is pretty good about going 2-0 when he leads the h2h 1-0 than he does 1-1. Even though it's not his surface and it's the first match he's played on grass... I can't bring myself to fade him now. 10pts Dupuis over Gonzo @ 3.10 (Betfair) - Taking speed versus the clay courter. 10pts Udomchoke over Tursunov @ 4.6 - I'm going back to looking for value over should wins. Udomchoke could suprise Dimi here on speed and Dimi carried a lot of first serve faults in the last round. Udomchoke could very well keep the pressure on Dimi, and regardless of surface Dimi isn't exactly good with pressure situations.

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!:eek :eek :eek Nadal really an underdog against Fish???????? WTF!!!!!!!!! Can't believe i missed it:wall :wall

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June well I did say it was a fantastic price and so it proved. Very underrated on grass.

[FootballTennis]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Nadal v Fish! Am I missing something? Cos normally the odds would be around 1.10 on Nadal. Even on grass.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Nadal v Fish! Am I missing something? Cos normally the odds would be around 1.10 on Nadal. Even on grass.

Do some research and you might figure it out:loon :ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Crap day today, but there were some totally shocking results flying around so it's not too bad. Now -5pts for the week.

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Or look up a couple of posts ;) And give me a decent lay price for Nadal to win Queens and we'll see how underrated he is ;)

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Halle
Selection	SODERLING v Pavel
Strength	10/10
Date	15/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	VC Bet @ 1.44 (Back)
Reasoning	Ths looks like a nice solid favourite to start the day off with. Pavel isn't the player he was a few years back and looks to have had his 'big week' for the year in Austria just before the French. He's usually alright on grass but nothing more than that, as you can see from his 13-12 record on grass since 2000. He hasn't had a decent run on grass for a few years and looks to be in decline on the surface as he is in general. He beat Baghdatis in the first round but personally I've never seen Baggy play on grass and I don't think it's a surface that will suit him too well. Soderling's game should be well suited, he hits really big from the back and his serve should get him a lot of easy points. His record on grass is 10-7 but I think t should be better than that and I think he can improve it in the next few weeks. He beat Schuettler in the first round and whilst he isn't the toughest on opponent anymore at least he will have had to hit a lot of balls and that should be good preparation for this. H2H is 1-0 to Soderling with a straightforward 6-3 6-4 on indoor hard court ealier this year.
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[A-Team]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June if nadal was underrated yesterday, there seems to have been a market over-reaction to his win today. there isn't much liquidity in the set betting market atm, but if he's still around 1.7 to beat verdasco in straight sets tomorrow then it's a value lay I reckon.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June None of the prices at Queens appeal today, so Soderling is the only one for me today:hope

[reyna12]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Is there anywhere to keep up to date with gerryweber open, the live scores on that site are terrible, takes ages to update, according to it right now soderling is 4-0 but has already won it 6-0 Berdych scores have stopped updating on break point :(

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Is there anywhere to keep up to date with gerryweber open, the live scores on that site are terrible, takes ages to update, according to it right now soderling is 4-0 but has already won it 6-0 Berdych scores have stopped updating on break point :(

Go to the draw page http://live.gerryweber-open.de/drawDetails.php then click on details for the match you want. It's updating a lot better, but it doesn't do point-by-point. But it does update all the stats, so you can watch the total points to keep up to date;). Keep closing the window that opens up and keep hitting details to keep it going.

[robby]

Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June

Keep closing the window that opens up and keep hitting details to keep it going

Page doesn't work for me (seems overloaded - some error in a lang I don't feel like translating ;)). However, if you're doing that to 'refresh' the page, just hit f5 when you have that window in focus. Past couple of tournies I've been having some better luck in the live play, so I'm doing that here with a lot of shorties on the list. Although, here's some leans I've had all day. Looking at the stats shows that Fish gave that match away. 3 DFs in the first and less than 50% first serve, the aces kept him within it. The second set 5 DFs and a 27% first serve. It doesn't take a genius to know that if you're serving more second serves than first you're giving someone who doesn't handle faster surfaces one hell of a chance. Looking over Verdasco's past shows that when he loses the first set he's still a threat for the second. He doesn't get swept outright all that often. A 2-0 lay seemed like a solid bet, and adding how much 'dasco has already played here (quallies) 4 looks like value. (Yes I know about the h2h's and the fact that a couple are on faster surfaces) Mirnyi over Hewitt @ 2.8 - Hewitt struggled yesterday and I'm curious if his injury from a couple of weeks ago is effecting his mobility. It would be a lot easier to respond to the slower speeds in RG than it would here. Mirnyi has some solid speed and could trouble Hewitt quite a bit. Keeping in mind that Hewitt has played very little tennis over the past 4-5 months. I actually like Seppi over Haas. Was really impressed with his round 1 win. Was a tight win with a deep TB. The type of pressure tennis he's been folding in. I've made a lot of money fading him over the clay court season, but if he can push his serve and hang in there, he could win it in three. Besides, it's not like Haas has been all that drama free anyways.