robby Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June I'm thinking of having a crack at a system of picking him to win by 2-1 in all 3 set matches and see how it goes. Ok, had a few minutes so tried and back tested this for ya. Small sample used No Finals included (most aren't three setters) No Round Robins No Grand Slams (again not three setters) Assumption that the average price is 4 (if I had historical tennis odds - this would be a lot more accurate) Federer is 8-21 in winning 2-1 You would be 11 points up on a level staking plan since after the Aus Open. Remove this week where he's had three three setters (only tourny out of the sample) and you would have broke even. Remove Hard Court and you're at 6-8 and up 16pts. I do like the idea of a system on trying to find three setters, and this would need more samples taken (and historical odds). Don't know if i would fluke one out of Fed, but it's given me a few ideas. (Currently working on an app to do all of the hard yards for me ;)) Food for thought - lay system? Don't know what the lay odds would be so I can't throw that into the mix, they'll vary widely. (2-1 is pretty constant, 2-0 does fluctuate) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwi_punter Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Very interesting. Cheers Robby. It seems like a system that could be tweaked a bit to make it more successfull. Its always good to back a guy who wins so often (minus v Nadal) and is taken to 3 sets often. Have been following yours and the others choices in this these tennis threads with a lot of interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robby Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Oh, and I took Henman outright before this match for 6.8 I do think that Roddick deserves to be fav and prolly should win. However, Blewitt and Henman have some success against Roddick and Henman does represent value out of the 4 (considering the matches he's played) Also it would break me even for the tourny... otherwise what's another 3 points? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June I was thinking of Fed 2-1 today as he's been struggling all week - best odds were 5.00 which is a bit higher than normal:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Oh dear, Henman was robbed and Vliegen put in a shocker, bad day today. Even Roddick is a break down:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robby Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June -11 back to this time last year (including Halle '05). The thing that kills Fed's is the hard court season. None in Doha, Bang, Dubai one in Cincy.. I've been thinking about something about as simple, but looking at the entire list. (Not back tested) If we see how many 3 setters someone wins as a fav vs how many 3 setters someone loses as a dog. This way you'll be looking at two of the things that you're wanting, the fav that wins and the dog that loses. However, it will have to be weighted in some fashion. Kim, the habitual qualifier may win 900 3 setters as a dog, but if he's ranked 190 beating someone ranked 120 that doesn't neccessarily mean he'll beat Stepanek (who does find himself in three setters often). One thought on the weight that would clear up a lot of the obvious would be 1000 - Rank applied to whatever scale comes from the 3 set approach. Anyways, I'll quit rambling on... :\ the programmer in me is coming out where my wallet should be ;) Speaking of wallet... put a couple of points on Roddick 2-0 @ a set down for 7. Surely a slow start doesn't override the massive H2H. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robby Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Oh dear' date=' Henman was robbed and Vliegen put in a shocker, bad day today. Even Roddick is a break down:sad[/quote'] How was he robbed? (I soo need a 24 hour tennis channel) Thought it was odd that Hewitt came in soo strong in the third, not his norm by far. Love the 2pt and 3pt plays I've done across these semis, -20 for the week now, luckily I'm going on vacation on monday, rather bet on AFL ;) ...Wait for 3 first serve faults in succession by Andy and back Blake 2-0 ;) He tends to get way down on himself when he feels that his serve isn't going for him. ... Someone else had the same idea.. 2.65 to 2 in a matter of two points! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June How was he robbed? (I soo need a 24 hour tennis channel) Loads of calls going against him. When at *2-0 30-40 in the third set Tim hit a ball very close to the baseline, linesman put his hands down, Hewitt shouts at him then he calls it out:wall :wall. Tim asked for the supervisor at the change over, had a bit of a whinge at him then didn't win another game:wall. There was also a game on Tims serve in the second set where he got 2 decisions that were clearly wrong and another that was doubtful all go against him, really surprised he managed to hold. Anyway, just call it a shit day, Roddick is having a load of problems:eek :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robby Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Breaks 2 games later and now down to 1.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robby Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June So I take it you're a fan of Hawkeye implementations? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June So I take it you're a fan of Hawkeye implementations? ;) Absolutely:lol :lol Shit day today, can't believe Roddick lost. Now -9.3pts for the week:wall :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June SportTennis EventATP Queens SelectionBLAKE v Hewitt Strength10/10 Date18/06/2006 Bookmaker/Price>William Hill @ 1.83 (Back) ReasoningSo, what do you make of this final? Initially I'm not so sure, mainly because I thought both of these guys would lose in the semis! However, after thinking about it, I have to go for Blake. I wasn't sure of his form this week, however, I saw him destroy Roddick and he totally dominated proceedings and it reminded me of another Blake match - in the final of Vegas against Hewitt which he won in 3 sets. H2H is 6-2 to Hewitt but as I just mentioned Blake won the last one this year in a final which I think is important. Hewitt has been poor in finals losing his last 4, including this year against Blake and Murray (both matches he was pretty heavy favourite in). Conversely Blake has been doing well in finals, last year going 5-1 (admittidly some at a lower level) and 1-1 this year beating Hewitt and losing to Federer. Hewitt was better than I expected today, but I still feel he was lucky to get through, and his second serve looked very vunerable. We also saw some awesome returning from Blake today and that combination doesn't look too good for Hewitt. I know Hewitt has a great record here and has won a lot on grass, but I still say he's nowhere here where he was a couple of years ago, and he is very vunerable. Blake on the other hands looks to have gotten over the problems he had closing out matches during the clay season, and looks to be back in great form. This makes him very dangerous, and a worthy favourite for this final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Nice work as ever Mr I. Good luck with Blake, I think he's the man for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robby Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June You know I can't stand Blewitt. I can't stand him so much that I've put my own special version of the Punters Lounge curse on him. You know the one I'm talking about : Newbie comes in thinking "Hey, I'll put my tip in", writes it all down nice and neat.. lots of detail and plenty of stats. Then his 1.4 banker gets blown out of the water!. Except mine adds hemroids for the player in question -the day he turns 45! However, it must be said that he's a grinder and while I didn't watch the Roddick match, I'd bet Roddick lost it as easily as Blake won it. I'm laying Hewitt 2-0 @ 4 for the remaining 13.5pts I need to break even. Gotta say I'll be watching that like a hawk though and in-play hard if Blewitt rams through, I'm not losin that much to break even ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Just my only bet for tennis this week in the midst of taking a breather from the football... :tongue2 20pts Federer-Hewitt (2.05 @ William Hill) Federer may have made it look harder than was necessary in a couple of his matches at Halle - not least against O Rochus. That said, it's no fluke he always comes good in the end and he too is in the midst of setting a record(hopefully!) of consecutive wins on grass just as Nadal did on clay going into Roland Garros. Just stuff for the acca. My only worry with Hewitt is his fitness and the thought of fatigue getting the better of him, having played a couple of unnecessary 3-setters IMO. That said, he leads Blake 6-1 on h2h and even though Blake won the last clash(also the only meeting in 2006 to date) between the pair in 3 sets, I do not believe Blake has a solid enough game on grass to beat a rejuvenated Hewitt - I, for one, do not view Blake's triumph over Roddick as any sort of a realistic indication of how this match will pan out for Hewitt's returns will trouble Blake a great deal more than Roddick ever could. Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 100.00pts Profit/Loss : 0.00pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Just my only bet for tennis this week in the midst of taking a breather from the football... :tongue2 20pts Federer-Hewitt (2.05 @ William Hill) Nice one. Federer wins it 2-1 and Hewitt 2-0.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robby Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Now, did anyone watch that match? From a livescore point of view it made me think of the match he lost in the Aus Open. Went akwardly aggressive on the serve/volley (almost a serve from the back, then from the net) on 2 out of 3 serves. I'm just glad he broke back when he was 5-3 in the first, brought the price up from 1.7 to 2 on the Blewitt 2-0 figured I break even or I make 54, and ran... Can't trust someone who's serving less than 50% of first serves and winning 20ish percent (iirc) on the second. Phew! At least you don't have me as a bad luck charm next week;), vacation baby! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 18, 2006 Author Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: ATP Queens & Halle & WTA Birmingham 12th-18th June Now, did anyone watch that match? Blake served poorly, but was missing too much from the back. Early on Hewitt got into a rythem from the back and Blake tried to be more aggressive, both with his serve (serve volleying) and with the groundstrokes which wasn't particually successful. Have to say I was very impressed with Hewitt, especially the way he was serving, he's looked better than he has all year in the past two matches (still lucky;)). Semis and final killed me this week, ended up -19.3pts. Can I moan about going 2-6 in tiebreaks this week?:lol :lol Anyway, hopefully we'll do better next week and at Wimbledon:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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