Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

[TopSavings]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary TOTAL BETS 62 WINS 47 WIN PERCENTAGE 75.80% LEVEL STAKES PROFIT/LOSS +15.91 pts (after 5% commission) YIELD/RETURN ON INVESTMENT 25.66% Well, I said I'd do 50 bets and see where I was at, didn't expect it to only take a week. Put it this way, I would rather have layed out 11 points yesterday to make 3 than 20 to make the same profit. Also, 3 from 3 over bets now I've posted up the right leagues, which brings that total to 11/14 (78.57%) if you'd followed all my posts, but in the right leagues, 7/7 (100%). So, If I had posted with the new rule from the start, and remembered what leagues I was actually supposed to post over bets for, the strike rate is really good (25/30 for unders + 7/7 for overs = 32/37 or 86.48%) Hmmm, time to have a think about the new rule and back test tonight. I think it's time for benny's under and over system with the new rule to take action and get some money thrown at it. :nana :cow :drums

[emirc]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

Results for Sunday 23rd April DAY TOTAL for all 20 under qualifiers +3.72 points (ROI/yield of 18.60% :( ) DAY TOTAL for the 11 new rules qualifiers +3.32 points (ROI/yield of 30.18% :\ )

I cant see why sad smilies?! Once, i was impressed by yield of ~10% through a season. If you could keep your yield of ~25-30% thorugh a year, i think you gonna write some new rules and laws in betting world ;)

[pralque]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary I don't mean to put the man down, because he seems genuine, and is very helpful to anyone who asks here, but you don't have to rewrite the rules of betting, because there's no way he can stay above 20% in the long term, no one can, not with this data set, at the moment tossing a fair coin could have ended up with the same winning profile.

[emirc]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

I don't mean to put the man down' date=' because he seems genuine, and is very helpful to anyone who asks here, but you don't have to rewrite the rules of betting, because there's no way he can stay above 20% in the long term, no one can, [b']not with this data set, at the moment tossing a fair coin could have ended up with the same winning profile.

That's exactly what i meant, his data set of 50 games or so still is not representative pattern. But after 1000 games or more, he will hopefully have much better picture of how his system works.

[pralque]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary yeap we essentially agree, although when I talked about data set, i was refering to the input parameters of the system.

[TopSavings]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary I am very thankful for the positive comments guys, however, stating that a coin could be tossed to end up with the same results is quite frankly, without sounding like i'm having a go, utter rubbish. I have back tested this system over at least 500 matches, so why are questioning the 'input parameters'? I don't even know what that means... If something works over 500 matches at level stakes, and i have the decency to post it up here and put my @ss on the line, then I feel that is a very unfair and unjust comment.

[emirc]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

yeap we essentially agree' date=' although when I talked about data set, i was refering to the input parameters of the system.[/quote'] Dude, i don't want to sound harsh but, you DON'T know what input parameters TS use in his system. Second, as far as i know he didn't told anyone the details of his system (which is perfectly understandable, i wouldn't too :dude) TS, just keep up the GREAT work, we all have :hope for you here. Your success means more :beer to me, too :lol :ok

[matjnewton]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary keep it up topsavings

[DAC]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Just a quick question and to be honest - I wouldn't know where to start looking but do you think heavy rain influences the goals scored on any given day?

[libi71]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

Just a quick question and to be honest - I wouldn't know where to start looking but do you think heavy rain influences the goals scored on any given day?

From what I understand TopSavings system does not take into account such match specific data (no teams news, etc.) If you ask me, I would say that pitch condition does affect game play and thus goals scoring. When analysing matches I bet on, I do take such things into account: - heavy rain (i.e. water puddles on the pitch): negative impact on scoring - mud/snow: same thing - rain, just wet pitch: positive effect Apart from that I think that the larger a pitch is, the higher are chances to score (look at Barcelona and Real, they have so much space left and right of the penalty box), makes it harder to defend.

[DAC]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Cheers for that Libi, I may take a look into the weather aspect of things.

[pralque]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

Dude, i don't want to sound harsh but, you DON'T know what input parameters TS use in his system. Second, as far as i know he didn't told anyone the details of his system (which is perfectly understandable, i wouldn't too :dude)

Mate you shouldn't worry about sounding harsh when you are already sounding foolish since topsavings "did told" me what his input data set is just a few posts earlier.

[DC]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Pralque, your comments are very unjust. TopSavings has worked hard and back tested months of fixtures to try and help us all win some money. He's had the decency to answer all questions and put up his selections which are showing an excellent ROI. For you to come on here and say it cannot last and compare his system to a random event such as flipping a coin is totally uncalled for. Either come up with something constructive or do one. TopSavings, let your results do the talking :ok

[pralque]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary dan, please do me a favour mate and re-read what I ve said, we all got the drama queen thing in us to some extent but my intention has never been to dramatize any of this, if some of you are accustomed to seeing flamers/haters/etc. in some circumstances it might even be expected that my comments could have been misconstrued, but since I already got one moronic reply to a previous comment, let me just quote myself here, on what I said which is not too far off from what you are saying, before we get to all that "let the picks do the talk" let the haters rave on imature nonsense. "I don't mean to put the man down, because he seems genuine, and is very helpful to anyone who asks here, but you don't have to rewrite the rules of betting, because there's no way he can stay above 20% in the long term, no one can, not with this data set, at the moment tossing a fair coin could have ended up with the same winning profile." This should suffice, but let me end it here once an for all by saying that I aknowledged his integrity and helpfullness, so you shouldn't be reminding me of these, and I doubted that ANYONE could reach a 20% yield with this data set, and I emphasised the data set bit, like I said I don't intend to put the man down, but the truth is that a fair coin or an unfair one adjusted to the average betting odds, would have a fair chance to have ended with a similar profile, and last time I am saying this do not take this negatively, there are some sobering truths we gotta abide with.

[pralque]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary k, let me reply to you tops to, because i missed reading your post first time around. "I am very thankful for the positive comments guys, however, stating that a coin could be tossed to end up with the same results is quite frankly, without sounding like i'm having a go, utter rubbish. I have back tested this system over at least 500 matches, so why are questioning the 'input parameters'? I don't even know what that means... If something works over 500 matches at level stakes, and i have the decency to post it up here and put my @ss on the line, then I feel that is a very unfair and unjust comment." Like i said I despise negativity and I am not aiming at that, but basic probability theory easily and conclusively disproves that on such a limited sample, my point on the fair coin is "utter rubbish", it isn't, it's completely justified. Please resist your urge to take this negatively, I think you fully understand what input parameters are because I asked you about these and you replied, and what's that crap about me "questioning them", I just enquired about them to see what data sets your system is based on, there's a huge difference between questioning and enquiring about, any person with half a brain would like to know what sets of objective data someone uses when they place a bet, which according to their own words is based on objective data, taking corners into accounts say or just goals can make a heck of a difference. It's the first thing one should actually ask about on a system what input data is utilized. Now calm down, this is the internet, don't escape into some fantasy of putting your ass on any line here, you are justing posting your picks here and have been civil so far, don't go down the "I see haters all around" road beause there aren't any, de-dramatize this (for lack of a better term) and try to stay focused on where it's at, winning.

[Betfairbetting]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

because there's no way he can stay above 20% in the long term, no one can, not with this data set, at the moment tossing a fair coin could have ended up with the same winning profile.

Can you prove this statement? :unsure

[pralque]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary it's actually two statements, the first one I can verify, and a lot o people too can by merely browsing around for long term yields in the tipping field, and like I said the input variables are important, my independent tests show that these input variables, given a set staking system, not kelly or martingale etc. will never(close to never lets say) reach such profit yields IN THE LONG RUN, and that is close to a few thousand bets. The second part about the coin, it has been proved time and again in literaly tsousands of VERY elementary statistics textbooks, but you wish to I am sure you can find some online simulation to test this yourself.

[TopSavings]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Right this is the last thing I will say on this as it's becoming rather irritating now. I am under the impression that I have done a good job so far on this thread. Many people have said that they think I am doing well, and I am very grateful for such positive comments. It is just a little concerning that parts of your posts so far have totally baffled me: "And, are you using some statistical propre way in these, such as a poisson distribution modelling of the scores, or a purely computational approach?" I didn't understand most of this post if I'm being very honest with you, and I think that's a fair point. I don't have a degree in stats or any kind of ditrsibution modelling/statistcal propre knowledge for that matter. If you could explain what these mean I'd be more than happy to try to answer you. Then we go on to the "nobody can maintain 20% ROI". I disagree, and am willing to try to prove it on here from now on. Again, this may sound very aggressive because we are not talking face to face, but why should I, or anybody reading this thread, believe that comment? I'm not saying you're being negative, but I am quite happy to disagree with you on that point. I suppose I am the only person who has seen the pieces of paper in my bedroom, but there is proof on those alone from well over 500 games that suggests that this system is WELL capable of maintaining that sort of profit. I can see why you think that this thread is a small sample to work from (and would agree if that was the only data I had been offered) but I hope to prove you wrong in the future. My other greyhound systems have always maintained more than 20% yield, so I am very confident that the time and effort I have put into this will produce similar results. Others seem to think/hope so too... We then go on to: "Now calm down, this is the internet, don't escape into some fantasy of putting your ass on any line here, you are justing posting your picks here and have been civil so far, don't go down the "I see haters all around" road beause there aren't any, de-dramatize this (for lack of a better term) and try to stay focused on where it's at, winning." I didn't mention anything about haters whatsoever, and am not by any stretch of anybody's imagination "going down some fantasy" just because I've posted up a few winners and a small amount of profit. I do however thank you for you opinions (as everybody is entitled to theirs) but none of them have been any help to me whatsoever, apart from when you said BOL, which I appreciate. :ok All the best, TS

[muppet77]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

Can you prove this statement? :unsure

check out http://www.hakank.org/sims/CoinSimApplet.html the 'values' part set at -1,1 means you gain 1 point for a head, and lose a point for a tail. run a 1000 tosses. now look at the graph. is it in profit? how much? this one allows you to do a MILLION flips. 20% profit from a million is 200,000. i've not seen this come up. http://www.agribiz.com/merchdiz/cointoss/cointoss.html now run the sim again.

[TopSavings]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Oh by the way, it's too late now guys as I've been teaching drums tonight and have arrived back late, but my only Q tonight was in the German II and that was GF v EC @ 1.73 Currently 1-0 HT.

[emirc]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

Oh by the way, it's too late now guys as I've been teaching drums tonight and have arrived back late, but my only Q tonight was in the German II and that was GF v EC @ 1.73 Currently 1-0 HT.

Damn, i was looking to play this match under too, but i wanted to see your qualifiers first :$ Ah well, tomorow is another day :drums

[TopSavings]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Sorry mate, I appreciate your confidence in my picks, but there could well be two more goals anyway. I will, however, in the future, try my best to post up well in advance (which hopefully I have so far). :spank This game won't be put into the system progress, unless of course people don't object? I don't mind either way, as strictly speaking I don't want to 'after event' or even 'half time event' for that matter! :lol

[TopSavings]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary German II finished 1-1 - good for the stats I suppose :D Tuesday 25th under Qualifier England Conference Burton v Dagenham @ 1.88 :hope

[smyther]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary well done tops im def looking forward to your tips in future especially next year as i'll be set up properly with my betting and will be able to bet on all the games... so well done keep up the good work and don't go anywhere.. there are people who will want to reflect negativly on things especially on the internet.. but your results do the talking and i think most people beleive you.ve back tested this.. so:cheers ..

[rockymog]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Hi Top Savings just wanted to say thanks for sharing your tips - keep it going. Pralque whilst I agree that 20% is probably difficult to maintain the fact is that the guy is making profit consistently , I`m sure we all know that at some point he may hit a losing run but he should still be able to maintain 10%+ which I`m sure is acceptable to us all. I suggest you keep your opinions to yourself and if you have doubts just don`t follow the picks, that is your choice, but don`t shoot the system down in flames. You seem quite intelligent so I`ll make it easy for you GIVE THE GUY A CHANCE.:ok rockymog

[TopSavings]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Go Smyther!!!! :clap

[TopSavings]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Go Rockymog! :clap I also agree thAT 20% over A MILLION MATCHES is quite difficult based on some generator, but I am not a generator, I am a hard working football stats type person who is determined to make some money from what I think gives me a good edge over the flip of a a coin. I will do my best from here on in... Thanks again guys.

[Betfairbetting]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary TS, do you see a big difference between Burton - Dagenham and Aston Villa - Manchester City? (because i don't) And did you check the games in Slovakia? (because the best Under for me today is in this league)

[pralque]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary rockymog, jesus christ, I am not fvcking flaming the guy, do I have to repeat this ad nauseum, I like his style, I am rooting for him, I 'd like to see him to do well, I d even like him to go over 20% yield and disprove me. I was just replying to a comment someone made by someone about 30% yields and that's where my "fair coin" argument fit, and let me say thank you to monkey for a very illustrative link to a coin simulator, which verifies that what I said was anything but "utter garbage", and which yourself and people such as Betfairbetting, smyther etc. seem to have completely disregarded (and btw, betfairbetting do you consider your queries have been anwered?) in your perception of a flame war that's not actually taking place, although at the moment I myself am getting weary as to why we keep getting ten post posters dragging this non issue on and and on.

[Betfairbetting]

Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary

it's actually two statements, the first one I can verify, and a lot o people too can by merely browsing around for long term yields in the tipping field, and like I said the input variables are important, my independent tests show that these input variables, given a set staking system, not kelly or martingale etc. will never(close to never lets say) reach such profit yields IN THE LONG RUN, and that is close to a few thousand bets. The second part about the coin, it has been proved time and again in literaly tsousands of VERY elementary statistics textbooks, but you wish to I am sure you can find some online simulation to test this yourself.

I saw these simulations of coin tossing but to be honest I thought you want to say something else, I still don't understand what you want to say with this example. Maybe you think that after 50-100 coin tossing you can make the same profit as with 50-100 TS bets? This is not true of course. If you make a simulation of 50-100 coin tossing many times you will be constantly over the x-axis /only in profit/ but many times you will cross the x-axis at least 5-6 times /no profit/, so what? Coin tossing has not much to do with sports betting and all people who like to bet should finally understand this fact. I saw many times people to compare both things but this is not very smart. By coin tossing every time the chance is fixed, you know exactly these percents, by sports betting you can never be sure what exaclty the chances are and the better estimations you make, the more money you will win. And I still don't see how you can be sure if TS will make 20 % profit in a long run or not. The fact that you haven't seen a system which gives such profit doesn't mean absolutely nothing. I am sure you haven't seen many things which exist despite this fact. And by the way what is a long run for you? 10 000 bets, 100 000, 1 000 000, 1000 000 000?