TopSavings Posted April 25, 2006 Author Share Posted April 25, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Hi BFB, The reason I had not looked at the Slovakian league is because BF do not cover this league in terms of the under/over 2.5 market. I have since, however, realised that GBookers cover this bet but it is not quite a Q. Thank you for bringing this to my attention though! In terms of comapring the Villa match with the Burton match, I can see why you think they are similar mate, but of course it depends on what your qualifying factors are. City have, in my opinion and according to my stats, conceded too many goals lately on their travels to give me any hope that they can keep a clean sheet here. Dagenham however, have conceded less, and combined with Burton's inablity to score at home, I have more confidence in the latter match. Both are very borderline games, and I wouldn't put you off leaving BOTH alone!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 25, 2006 Author Share Posted April 25, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Pralque, To address you earlier post: "I like his style, I am rooting for him, I 'd like to see him to do well, I'd even like him to go over 20% yield and disprove me..." A genuine thank you. :clap TS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Betfairbetting Posted April 25, 2006 Share Posted April 25, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Uff, sorry, I forgot that you take odds from Betfair, it was stupid to ask about Slovakia, sorry again and thanks for the answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 25, 2006 Author Share Posted April 25, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary No not at all mate, had it qualified, I would have posted up the GB odds (as I did when they were actually better in a Czech game than the BF price earlier in the thread) Come on Burton, keep it tight at the back (ooh er missus! ;) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 25, 2006 Author Share Posted April 25, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Well cover me in eggs and flour and bake me for forty minutes! It's finished 2-2 in the Burton game! :sad :sad :sad :sad :sad Well, the show must go on... I will be starting the official 'over and under with new rules' system from scratch at the weekend by the way, so nobody can accuse me of after eventing, changing the rules half way through or making up any false ROI %. Give me three days to cement my finished system, then there is no turning back. WHO IS PREPARED TO GO IN WITH ME!!!??? :drums Wednesday 26th April Qualifiers (including 'over' bets) Swiss Super League Xamax v FC Zurich (currently @1.64 BF) OVER Czech Gambrinus Liga Plzen v FC Brno (@1.50 GB, pending BF market) UNDER Sigma Olomouc v Slovacko (@1.55 GB, pending BF market) UNDER Slavia Prague v Slovan Liberec (@1.55 GB, pending BF market) UNDER :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emirc Posted April 25, 2006 Share Posted April 25, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Well cover me in eggs and flour and bake me for forty minutes! It's finished 2-2 in the Burton game! :sad :sad :sad :sad :sad Well, the show must go on... Don't get too hard on yourself, you are still having respectable results whatsoever :ok You can't win them all... :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 25, 2006 Author Share Posted April 25, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Yeah cheers mate, it's not looking too bad. Anyway, here is the progress report for all 'under' games since this thread started, then I will post up another progress report for all 'new' under bets plus the correct 'over' bets (ie. from the 10 leagues I originally back tested these guidelines on). This will essentially be everything that will become part of the TOP SAVINGS SUPER SYSTEM which starts Saturday: TOTAL BETS 64 WINS 48 WIN PERCENTAGE 75.00% LEVEL STAKES PROFIT/LOSS +15.60 pts (after 5% commission) YIELD/RETURN ON INVESTMENT 24.37% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 25, 2006 Author Share Posted April 25, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary New Rule Unders and Correct Overs Progress 41 bets 33 wins 80.48% Level Stakes +15.55 points Yield 37.92% Average price (winning bets only) 1.72 Obviously this is a much smaller sample and the info doesn't mean much to anybody as I haven't told you which are 'new' qualifiers and which aren't, but it is pleasing to see that with the adjusted rules and combining the over bets, this could work quite well as of Saturday. :hope If you guys are saying that anything over 10% ROI is acceptable, then that is fine, but I am aiming for more than that so we shall just have to see. Good night all. My eyes hurt. TS. :zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted April 25, 2006 Share Posted April 25, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Looking forward to Saturday TS. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rado_tdr Posted April 26, 2006 Share Posted April 26, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary HI TS I wish you good luck with your new system I believe that it will bring a lot of profit. I want to ask you something. Have you look on this game for today: Stal - Dnepropetrovsk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted April 26, 2006 Share Posted April 26, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary WHO IS PREPARED TO GO IN WITH ME!!!??? Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me!!!! :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted April 26, 2006 Share Posted April 26, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary TS, You've been PM'd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rado_tdr Posted April 26, 2006 Share Posted April 26, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary TS I want to ask you for your today picks. Are they from your new system too like *games on saturday or not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traf Posted April 27, 2006 Share Posted April 27, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me!!!! :nana Me too! But not so loudly!:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 27, 2006 Author Share Posted April 27, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Disasterous picks yesterday I'm sorry to announce, including an 90th min goal in Czech to make one of the games 2-1. :wall No Q's Thursday or Friday, but I'll be back kicking and screaming for the weekend's fresh start. New thread or carry on here? Answers on a postcard..... TS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rado_tdr Posted April 27, 2006 Share Posted April 27, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Oooo TS dont be so hard with you. Things like this will happen. This is the fisrt day without profit. Come on man ..... I think it will be better to post here your Q from your new strategy. What do you think about today game Jablonec - Banik ? I will :hope:hope:hope:hope for you and will wait your picks to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piggeh Posted April 27, 2006 Share Posted April 27, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary I think the end of season makes things more difficult as well. Lots of cagey games if there's anytihng substantial at stake. System is still doing well though in my opinion! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted April 27, 2006 Share Posted April 27, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary New thread or carry on here? Carry on here .... starting a new thread may give the impression you're trying to start afresh and distance yourself from the recent 'disaster' ;) . By carrying-on here everyone will see the "warts 'n all" :) . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 28, 2006 Author Share Posted April 28, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Cool no worries mate, There are 2 for tonight: over - vest. man v besiktas in turkey under - istres v reim in french 2 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 28, 2006 Author Share Posted April 28, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Oh and by the way, Sorry about the lack of responses, I'm still here but have been pretty busy the last couple of nights, including witnessing my team make it into the EUFA cuip final due to another late goal by the pasta man!!! :clap UP THE BORO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libi71 Posted April 28, 2006 Share Posted April 28, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Oh and by the way, Sorry about the lack of responses, I'm still here but have been pretty busy the last couple of nights, including witnessing my team make it into the EUFA cuip final due to another late goal by the pasta man!!! :clap UP THE BORO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Well done again, Boro. Not sure if it hurst now more or less to see another team go down with 3 goals up as we did. Great entertainement, though, if you're not supporting the visitors :lol :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 28, 2006 Author Share Posted April 28, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Cheers Libi, I'm still in shock mate to be honest. Total deja vu last night. Nobody can say we don't deserve to be in the final though, and if they do they are either blind, stupid, or Geordies. ;) :cheers :beer :gimme :puke :cheers :beer :gimme :puke :zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piggeh Posted April 28, 2006 Share Posted April 28, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Did you go on Betfair and lay Steau at 1.01 mate? Could have made a killing there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Tips Up Posted April 28, 2006 Share Posted April 28, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Hi TopSavings, I've recently started researching the market in question, predominantly under 2.5 and I've noticed the Swiss and Danish Leagues have a high amount of goals whereas the Czech and Irish Eircom are the exact opposite. Currently I'm predicting between 65-70% on the unders from most leagues in Europe but finding it difficult to average over 70:wall . I'm working on a new method and a 75% target. Hopefully I'll still have some hair left. Good luck with yours. It's looking impressive! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 28, 2006 Author Share Posted April 28, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary ffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IT'S ALL GOING WRONG THE DAY BEFORE I START!!! OVER bet was under (0-1) UNDER bet has just gone over (3-0) Bloody hell... :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libi71 Posted April 28, 2006 Share Posted April 28, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Cheers Libi, I'm still in shock mate to be honest. Total deja vu last night. Nobody can say we don't deserve to be in the final though, and if they do they are either blind, stupid, or Geordies. ;) :cheers :beer :gimme :puke :cheers :beer :gimme :puke :zzz Whoever is stupid enough to go down 3 goals and leave themselves only 60 minutes to score for ... and achieves that, has every right to be in the final. BUT WHOEVER DOES IT TWICE IS JUST UNBELIEVABLE. I would expect that half of the population of Boro was wasted in heart attack while the other half died from heavy drinking after the match. I would at least have to drink a lot after such a match. :beer:beer:beer:beer:beer:beer:beer:beer (at least) Hope you guys go on to win the final now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 29, 2006 Author Share Posted April 29, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary TOP SAVINGS SUPER SYSTEM New start today everybody! No after-timing, no rule changes, no incorrect leagues posted up. The rules have been clarified so it is time to see if this works...:eek Staking plan is 5% of starting bank (at the start of the betting day) per bet on that day. The stake will never go below the stake of the previous bet after a losing day, even if this means that your bet exceeds 5% of the new bank. ie. If I had £100 and put 4 x £5 bets on (5% of the bank) and they all lost, my new bank would be £80. I do not then stake 5% of the £80 (£4), I stay at £5 per bet until my bank exceeds the original £100 and an increased stake can be reached. I did this about seven years ago on the dogs as a student with a starting bank of £60, and got it up to over £600. As a comparison to level stakes it works quite well, but when the bank is trebled, you MUST bank and start again so that the overall profit is not under threat. I'm starting with a bank of £200. There will sometimes be a need to round the bet up or down to the nearest £0.50, but this will be explained along the way. Prices will be quoted from one of the four online bookmakers I am a member of. These are Betfair, Betdaq, Bet365 and Gamebookers. So, I have £200, and I'm staking £10 on each of the following: UNDERS England 2 Carlisle v Torquay @ 2.10 BF L. Orient v Peterborough @ 1.81 BF Rochdale v B. Rovers @ 1.86 BF Czech A V. Jihlava v S. Olomouc @ 1.60 GB Slovacko v Pribram @ 1.60 GB Portugal A Nacional v Boavista @ 1.61 BF Spain A Betis v A. Bilbao @ 1.66 BF Deportivo v Celta Vigo @ 1.68 BF OVERS Turkey A Ankaragucu v Malatyaspor @ 2.06 BF Mexico A Cruz Azul v Pachuca @ 1.75 BF Good luck to all who choose to follow my selections. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted April 29, 2006 Share Posted April 29, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Good luck TS. Will follow with interest not cash!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libi71 Posted April 29, 2006 Share Posted April 29, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Good luck TS :ok , though you might have used that up for Boro already :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 29, 2006 Author Share Posted April 29, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Thanks guys, Let's hope it works out ok - I've spent too many hours of my life on this!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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