TopSavings Posted April 20, 2006 Author Share Posted April 20, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Dear Rado, I personally would not go anywhere near this game for an under 2.5 bet. It is very very close to being an 'over' 2.5 selection for me but doesn't quite fit into the guidelines. This is just my opinion, but in recent games there have been far too many goals to suggest this is going to be low scoring. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rado_tdr Posted April 21, 2006 Share Posted April 21, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary obably rightDear Rado, I personally would not go anywhere near this game for an under 2.5 bet. It is very very close to being an 'over' 2.5 selection for me but doesn't quite fit into the guidelines. This is just my opinion, but in recent games there have been far too many goals to suggest this is going to be low scoring. ;) You are probably right, they score to many goals in their last few games, but then why dont you pick Paderborn - Aachen? What do you think about this game? There are french2 games too, but you didnt pick no one probably because of the odds am I right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 21, 2006 Author Share Posted April 21, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary I had noticed there were French division 2 games but you are right in saying the odds are far too low. Pad v Aaachen? Well, Aachen have had a 2-5 and 2-4 scoreline in their last few away games so this doesn't inspire me with much confidence that they can keep a clean sheet. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rado_tdr Posted April 21, 2006 Share Posted April 21, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary This is the last one I promise :):):):) Grimsby - Chetenham? What about this one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 21, 2006 Author Share Posted April 21, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Ha Ha! You don't give up easily do you? ;) Obviously if this was a qualifier then I would have posted it up, but of the three you have suggested so far, this has the most chance of being 'under' according to my rules. I could be way off the mark and get these all the wrong way round, but using my guidelines I'd say that the Grimsby match looke most likely to have less goals. Having said that, it does not qualify therefore I wouldn't like to bet on it. Does that make sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 21, 2006 Author Share Posted April 21, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Pad v Aachen 2-1 after 20 mins Hope you left it alone... ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 21, 2006 Author Share Posted April 21, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Ok, I have decided to post up the two French League 2 qualifiers. Even though the prices are rubbish, they are no worse than a couple of the other bets I've posted up recently. So, updated bets: Under 2.5 Qualifiers for Friday 21st April 1) Portugal A Vitoria Guimaraes v Boavista @ 1.57 2) Germany Southern Region Stuttgart Am. v Aalen @ 1.74 3) French Orange League 2 Valenciennes v Istres @ 1.66 4) French Orange League 2 Creteil v Lorient @ 1.54 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angel.69 Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Well done TS, 4/4 tonight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smyther Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Hey man geart work well done love to know how u do it but your best to keep it to yourself... just few questions is did u come up with this yourself i.e set all the guidelines and such.. do u post all your over bets that quailfy... and will you be posting here next year lol...:hope if u do ill be:D and:beer but if u dont first ill be:sad then i'll :cry and worst of all i'll:puke so:cheers and keep it up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matjnewton Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary uh-oh someone just discovered emoticons.. hehe mat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Results for Friday 21st April Vitoria Guimaraes v Boavista @ 1.57 1-1 :ok (+0.54pts) Stuttgart Am. v Aalen @ 1.74 0-1 :ok (+0.70pts) Valenciennes v Istres @ 1.66 1-0 :ok (+0.62pts) Creteil v Lorient @ 1.54 1-1 :ok (+0.51pts) DAY TOTAL +2.37pts :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Ok, progress so far... TOTAL BETS 13 WINS 12 WIN PERCENTAGE 92.30% PROFIT/LOSS +6.95 pts (after 5% commission) RETURN ON INVESTMENT 53.46% Pretty pleased with this, although some of the prices have been way too short. Have just worked out my average price so far and it's only 1.68 :( There will quite a lot of qualifiers today (Saturday), so just to explain, once the system actually starts properly and I'm happy with the selection progess, I will be finding a way of picking the best bets. There is no way I want to be laying out 20 points at the start of the day! I will do 50 'dummy' runs then start backing with real money. Saturday's bets to follow later... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Smyther, Yes I will be keeping it to myself Yes I did come up with all of the guidelines myself Yes I will be posting all my over bets Yes I will be posting next year, if the system still works! :lol Hope this helps! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Hi TS, Good luck with the system, it seems to be going well so far. Just out of interest, I was wondering if your selection criteria are purely statistical or are some a bit more subjective. i.e. If I used your system would we get the same same results every time or would it depend on how we'd each assessed certian criteria? does that make sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Yes that makes sense mate and yes it is ALL statistical. If I were to give you the rules, and asked you to stat all of today's games over the world, we would (or should) come up with exactly the same qualifiers, which I am just about to post up!!! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Under 2.5 Qualifiers for Saturday 22nd April Today my :moon is on the line! I have no less than 29 'under' qualifiers across the globe at varying times. As I am still testing, this does not bother me too much, but eventaully I will devise some sort of ranking system to weed out the 'not so great' qualifiers. So far, the borderline qualifiers have been doing okay, but there are about 8 or 9 of these games that I would NOT like to have money on. I will post them all up for now. Wish me luck... Germany Southern Region TSV 1860 Am. v Pfullendorf Augsburg v Hoffenheim Darmstadt v Trier Germany Bundesliga 1 Bielefeld v Wolfsburg Stuttgart v Frankfurt England Championship Hull v Preston Leeds v Crewe Leicester v Plymouth Millwall v Burnley England League One Blackpool v Barnsley Bournemouth v Colchester Swindon v Brentford England League Two Mansfield v Carlisle Oxford v Northampton Rushden v Wycombe Czech A Liberec v Pribram Ostrava v Teplice VJ v Pizen Poland A Arka Gdynia v Odra Wod. Austra Max. Bundesliga Graz AK v Ried SV Belgium A Beveren v Germ. Beerschot Lokeren v La Louviere St. Truiden v Genk RC Spain Alaves v A. Madrid Celta Vigo v Zaragoza Portugal Penafiel v FC Porto Argentina Colon v Lanus Mexico Atlante v Club America Pachuca v Veracruz :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary 'Over' system bets to note: Koln v Duisburg Chesterfield v MK Dons Rotherham v Scunthorpe Ankaraspor v Manisaspor @ 1.65 Osnabruck v St. Pauli (no bets matched on BF) Wattenscheid v Koln Am. (no bets matched on BF) Fiorentina v Empoli Udinese v Chievo Mattersburg v Admira Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary I think you can just leave Plymouth in the unders list every week mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary thats a hell of a list mate - :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Hi Aliando, It is isn't it mate! Nothing I can do at this stage but post them ALL up though! Eventually there may be some sort of price cut-off point (eg. no bets below 1.70) but for now I'm just trying to get an idea of how well the rules work. I want to be putting £20 on each qualifier so I would not be happy about laying out £580 every Saturday morning! :eek I'll be happy if after today I still have a 75% win rate and most importantly my ROI is still 35-40% - that's what I set out to achieve really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Nice start bruv, good luck for today! :hope :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Nice list today TS. Good luck with it, more than interested to see how they play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Betfairbetting Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary TopSavings, Newells Old Boys - San Lorenzo is out of your selections or it is too late in the night and that's why you didn't post it? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Betfairbetting, It is classed as a Sunday game past midnight, but yes it is a selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Of Saturday's 29 selections, 15 have finished and 11 were under keeping with the 70-80% I'm after (73.33%) :ok The second half begins, but I have a wedding to go to at 8pm so will leave one final progress message before I go then the Mexicans will take us through to the end... :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pralque Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary TopSavings, thanks for sharing your work, and best of luck mate, just a quick question, as I have understood you are only using objective (NOT potentially objectifiable data), that is, for example goals are an objective set of data, while absences are a potentially objectiafiable set of data based on some criteria. Are you ALSO including shots on goals as your input data or not? And, are you using some statistical propre way in these, such as a poisson distribution modelling of the scores, or a purely computational approach? thanks and bol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Hi Pralgue, Thanks for the support, but your message has somewhat baffled me! :$ I hope this answers your question... The ONLY data I am using is previous match results. There is no consideration of shots on goal, or even team news for that matter. I really can't say any more I'm afraid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopSavings Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary 'Over' system results Koln v Duisburg 3-1 :ok Chesterfield v MK Dons 1-2 :ok Rotherham v Scunthorpe 1-1 :cry Ankaraspor v Manisaspor 3-1 :ok Osnabruck v St. Pauli 2-0 :cry Wattenscheid v Koln Am. 4-2 :ok Fiorentina v Empoli 2-1 :ok Udinese v Chievo 1-1 :cry Mattersburg v Admira (just gone 1-2, still playing) :ok 6/9 on the day (with the 3 losing matches all having 2 goals), but that makes 8/11 for the overs so far (72.72%, but I have no idea of ROI as I didn't make note of any prices! :wall ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pralque Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Top, whatever you consider convoluted in my post, by all means ask away and I ll be more than happy to elaborate. I for once I am covered by your reply, and of course I am not asking you to just give away just like this something you have invested so much time and effort into coming up with, no one in their right mind would, or should, I just wanted to see what you were using as your input data, and get some appreciation on the type of system you are using. Bol, hope this works out fine, obviously so far the results have been erring on the positive side, hopefully whatever regression to the mean still proves the rationale of the system profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emirc Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 Goals System Diary Very impressive under results, to say at least :notworthy Can you just hint how many different parameters you look when you deciding to pick some game? For unders are really important weather conditions on a pitch, then avaliability of best scorers or defenders in club, just to name a few.. How time consuming for you is this analysing per one game? Thanks, best luck in future :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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