TheRat Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey One of the favourites in the race became a non-runner after you placed your bet, and there are rules about how the odds change when this happens. yea - i assumed this was the case, to protect the layer i take it cheers though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey I took Pirate Flagship at about 2.4 earlier and it was average odds on betfair of 1.36 or something and even though it was matched at 2.4 for me it only gave me the shit odds...is this some clause? Ditto, and it had to be the one that won!!! Told you I was a 'Jonah' ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey Ditto' date=' and it had to be the one that won!!! Told you I was a 'Jonah' ;)[/quote'] Just had an easy day listening to Sportinglife, betting a small amount on more or less each race, and have had a day of seconds and 4ths!! Terrible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey PIRATE FLAGSHIP 1st 2-5f ,Unfortunately odds weren't helped by 2 N.R's. Record of horses in both systems and odds 2-1 or under - 1st,unp,1st,3rd,1st,1st,1st,1st,1st,1st,3rd,1st,1s t,1st,1st,1st,2nd,1st, 1st,1st. The System Within A System System !!! BETS - 20 STRIKE RATE - 16 PROFIT - 106.70 pts [to a 10 pt level stake] YEILD - 53.35% Assuming a 10 pt win stake on all horses named on both system A+ B , at S.P odds no greater then 2-1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 20, 2006 Author Share Posted April 20, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey We could count ourselves a little unlucky today. A double selection wins but the price is slashed due to the 2nd + 3rd fav dropping out. A 12/1 shot comes in 2nd and Dont Dili Dali didnt even end up with a place when involved in a 5-WAY PHOTO!! SYSTEM A 2.20 Che - Pirate Flagship - 1st 2/5 4.05 Che - Escompteur - 2nd 3/1 4.40 Che - Drumbeater - UP SYSTEM B 2.20 Che - Pirate Flagship - 1st 2/5 2.35 New - Angus Newz - 2nd 12/1 3.45 New - Dont Dili Dali - UP Roundup SYSTEM A Bets:123 Winners:45 Strikerate:36.58% Profit:215.55pts Yield:35.34% Bank:315.55pts SYSTEM B Bets:122 Winners:47 Strikerate:38.52% Profit:17.93pts Yield:3.01% Bank:117.93pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 20, 2006 Author Share Posted April 20, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey The start of night racing has left me with a dilemma. Seeing as only 3 horses are chosen each day, will the system work for night racing as effectivly. What Ive decided is to run this thread as the top 3 ALL DAY. Tommorrow Massey only has ratings for day racing but if/when he puts up ratings for evening racing I will be supplying 3 sets of selections. 1) ALL Day selections - These will be the top 3 for each system be it day or night. These will be posted in this thread. 2)Day Selections - These will be the top 3 selections for day racing only. 3)Night selections - These will be the top 3 selections using only the night races available. Doing this I hope to be bale to see if there is any difference between the two. Keeping full records allows me to see how the top 3 do while still tracking what the substitute selection would have done if night racing seems to be negative. Ive just decided to keep things fair I will run the day thread as from now and fr all days regardless to whether Masseys rated night racing or not. If after a while it appears he isnt going to supply ratings for night races then Ill axe the day thread ltogether as itll simply be a repeat of this one. They may be times tht the day or night selections are the same as this threads selections but this thread may end up a mixture of the two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 20, 2006 Author Share Posted April 20, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey Selections for Friday SYSTEM A 2.20 Ayr - According To John RPF:9/4 3.55 Ayr - Into The Shadows RPF:5/2 4.30 Ayr - Cregg House RPF:16/1 SYSTEM B 3.35 Thi - Grande Terre RPF:9/4 4.30 Ayr - Cregg House RP:16/1 5.10 Thi - Buachaill Dona RPF:Evs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evad Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey hi WFTE just seen the thread and its very interesting read. good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey SYSTEM A 2.20 Ayr - According To John - 1st 6/4 3.55 Ayr - Into The Shadows - 1st Evs 4.30 Ayr - Cregg House - UP SYSTEM B 3.35 Thi - Grande Terre - UP 4.30 Ayr - Cregg House - UP 5.10 Thi - Buachaill Dona - 1st 8/15 Roundup SYSTEM A Bets:126 Winners:47 Strikerate:37.30% Profit:223.05pts Yield:35.69% Bank:323.05pts SYSTEM B Bets:125 Winners:48 Strikerate:38.4% Profit:10.60pts Yield:1.75% Bank:110.60pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey Selections for Saturday SYSTEM A 2.20 Ayr - Monets Garden RPF:2/5 2.50 Ayr - Phar Bleu RPF:13/2 3.30 Ayr - L'Aventure RPF:25/1 SYSTEM B 2.15 Ban - Dream Alliance RPF:8/13 2.20 Ayr - Monets Garden RPF:2/5 9.20 Wol - Le Colombier RPF:Evs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey I have been following this thread with interest .I have sussed out your filters and wonder if a little combining of factors would be beneficial For example I wonder if Ayr 4.05 The Luder would be a better choice than L"Aventure . I guess you will get my drift. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey I can see where youre coming from. The Luder is actually a selection for the daytime only thread for system B. It might be worth keeping an eye on these though.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey I have been following this thread with interest .I have sussed out your filters and wonder if a little combining of factors would be beneficial For example I wonder if Ayr 4.05 The Luder would be a better choice than L"Aventure . I guess you will get my drift. When you follow a system no matter which one it might be you can't just swap or change on one day then go back the next. I also see your point in this case but WFTE as set his way of picking his selections and as shown a very good case to continue the way he his. Like he says system B take into account The Luder and lets hope both win. % man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey I'm getting :@ and :wall . I've back-tracked the selections on Masseys site and just can't see the process for selections .... but I ain't giving up, it's there somewhere :eyes . It's a bit like Sudoku, once I've started to look for the solution I just can't leave it alone ;) ;) . Can I have a hint .... do you drill-down using the 'Details' link. I'll give you a hint of how to do Sudoku :D :D ;) ;) 1/2 Eureka!!!!:cow Spotted how System A selections are made. Well, what I think is the criteria has worked over the past 10 days, having looked back and checked the selections on Masseys ;) . As you say, it ain't rocket science. Every time I think I've spotted how System B selections are made there's always 1 or 2 days where the citeria don't match, when I look back on Masseys :( . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey The problem with combining them is it would be a bit more judgement. At the moment theres solid rules. Thunderfoot, ignore any races which dont have at least 50% of runners with a rating. This might be where youre going wrong. I dont mind people knowing the selection process if they work it out. Id rather not say myself or have someone spread it about though. Just makes things a little more fun.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey MONET'S GARDEN - 1st:clap , 2-7f Record of horses in both systems and odds 2-1 or under - 1st,unp,1st,3rd,1st,1st,1st,1st,1st,1st,3rd,1st,1st,1st,1st,1st,2nd,1st, 1st,1st,1st. The System Within A System System !!! BETS - 21 STRIKE RATE - 17 PROFIT - 109.60 pts [to a 10 pt level stake] YEILD - 52.19% Assuming a 10 pt win stake on all horses named on both system A+ B , at S.P odds no greater then 2-1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey Just my opinion WFTE , but having 3 threads for the one system could be a bit confusing :( Might i suggest posting everything on one thread [ this one for instance] I'm sure it wouldn't be too much more hassle than it is running the 3 threads [iMO] Just a suggestion mate ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey Thunderfoot' date=' ignore any races which dont have at least 50% of runners with a rating. This might be where youre going wrong.[/quote']:wall :wall :wall :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey Personally I thought itd look more cluttered on one thread having 3 sets of selections and 3 sets of results. It makes little difference to me and would maybe be easier in 1 thread as it saves swapping around. Ill put it to the vote. Those that pop in regularly , let me know here over the next day or so if you prefer 1 or 3 threads. Ill go with whatever the majority decide.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey SYSTEM A 2.20 Ayr - Monets Garden - 1st 2/7 2.50 Ayr - Phar Bleu - 3rd 7/1 3.30 Ayr - L'Aventure - UP SYSTEM B 2.15 Ban - Dream Alliance - UP 2.20 Ayr - Monets Garden - 1st 2/7 9.20 Wol - Le Colombier - 2nd 8/11 Roundup SYSTEM A Bets:129 Winners:48 Strikerate:37.21% Profit:214.48pts Yield:33.51% Bank:314.48pts SYSTEM B Bets:128 Winners:49 Strikerate:38.28% Profit:2.03pts Yield:0.33% Bank:102.03pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey Selections for Sunday SYSTEM A 3.30 Str Saafend Rocket RPF:7/2 4.20 Win - Wizard Of Edge RPF:3/1 5.00 Str - Theatre Tinka RPF:15/1 SYSTEM B 2.50 Win - Blu Teen RPF:4/7 3.00 Str - Dickensbury Lad RPF:15/8 4.20 Win - Wizard Of Edge RPF:3/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alkim Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey I read this thread a couple of times per day. I only read this thread mate,so i'd prefer it all on here. It's your system so maybe it's best left to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey I read this thread a couple of times per day. I only read this thread mate,so i'd prefer it all on here. It's your system so maybe it's best left to you. First, Welcome to the Lounge. I appreciate the input. Like I said, it makes little difference to me and I know when Im posting so it comes down to the ease for people to view. So Ill notch that down as 2 for one thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey yes mate - i always follow this thread and would prefer one to be honest Cause i'm far too lazy to click 2 threads! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey I would prefer just one thread, the original system , as by increasing the number of potential picks you are inevitably adding weaker choices. I have , over the years, made up a number of systems using A.M.,s stats. You quickly realise that many filters you use are illogical and are a statistical abberation. I suspect that separating day and night races could be one too. I cannot think of a good reason why the picks would be more accurate at one time than another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 23, 2006 Author Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey Well the three seperate records are staying. Its whether they go in one thread or three thats the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matjnewton Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey Hey Have been following your thread, and let me say, good work !! My two cents is, it would be better to see it all in the one thread. However this is not a strongly held opinion. In any case it would be easier for you? I think'? Mat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey Hi WFTE! Read every day, and would like vote for one thread... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey wfte - i think you need to do what suits you mate - you're the one doing all the good work :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 23, 2006 Author Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Winning with Massey SYSTEM A 3.30 Str Saafend Rocket - UP 4.20 Win - Wizard Of Edge - UP 5.00 Str - Theatre Tinka - NR SYSTEM B 2.50 Win - Blu Teen - UR 3.00 Str - Dickensbury Lad - 1st Evs 4.20 Win - Wizard Of Edge - UP Roundup SYSTEM A Bets:131 Winners:48 Strikerate:36.64% Profit:204.48pts Yield:31.46% Bank:304.48pts SYSTEM B Bets:131 Winners:50 Strikerate:38.17% Profit:-2.97pts Yield:-0.47% Bank:97.03pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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