FleetFanatic Posted March 16, 2006 Author Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Fleet, you're in trouble as I agree with every single one of your selections this weekend! I'm concerned about Reading v Wolves though, hope its not proved to be correct. Jinx it why don't you!!! :rollin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles I raised extreme doubts about Reading to beat Preston a couple of weeks ago, as Preston were unbeaten in 22 league games, but Reading came through. Wolves are not as good as Preston, so keep the faith! Of course it's possible that Reading may not win, everyone has the choice either follow the system/selection policy or not, but we all need Fleet to stay resolute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles sorry to piss on your chips again mate, but this from the BBC; West Ham will be without keeper Shaka Hislop (hamstring), so either Stephen Bywater or Jimmy Walker will start. Boss Alan Pardew may rest players with an FA Cup tie just two days later, but Nigel Reo-Coker (illness) should play. Hopefully, Portsmouth really ARE that bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Please let it be Bywater..... .....Shaka is 37 anyway, he says, clutching at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Treble selection: 3 teams with best odds as always: 43 Accrington 4/7 35 Reading 4/6 31 West Ham 4/5 £10 staked in an attempt to return £47.14 :hope Bank now £305.04 7-fold: 7 teams with best odds between 8/15 and 10/11: 35 Reading 4/6 31 West Ham 4/5 26 Bristol City 4/5 25 Crystal Palace 8/11 23 Tranmere 8/11 22 QPR 8/11 21 Blackburn 5/6 £36.50 staked in an attempt to return £1862.12 :hope (Attempt 3 at Level 2). Bank now £710.50 A reminder of this weekend's selections as Tranmere play TONIGHT. :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Tranmere v Walsall Tranmere manager Brian Little has the luxury of choosing from the same squad that beat Chesterfield 4-1 and has said changes are "unlikely". Goalkeeper John Achterberg is Rovers' only absentee with a groin injury. Walsall have doubts over midfielder Dean Keates, who faces a late fitness test, but welcome back Ian Roper. The defender returns after serving a one-game ban and could be joined in the squad by Mad Timms and Chris Westwood who came through a reserve outing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Oops: Correction - 39:36 GOAL - Grant Smith Tranmere 0 - Walsall 1 Been mostly Walsall this half.:sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles 63:03 GOAL - Chris Greenacre Tranmere 1 - Walsall 1 GET IN! Another one please Tranmere..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles 72:10 GOAL - Grant Smith Tranmere 1 - Walsall 2:@ :@ :@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf4ever Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles walsall have this uncanny knack of getting a result out of better teams lately, they've drawn at colchester and swansea recently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles :@ :wall :@ :wall :@ :wall :@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles As some of you suspected, I will have an extra play tomorrow - for only £10 & the next £36.50 attempt will be next weekend. ADDITIONAL 7-fold: 7 teams with best odds between 8/15 and 10/11: Peterborough were next best in odds so have added them in with the other 6: 35 Reading 4/6 31 West Ham 1/1 (odds have changed but I can't ditch them having named them) 26 Bristol City 4/5 25 Crystal Palace 8/11 24 Peterborough 4/6 22 QPR 8/11 21 Blackburn 4/5(odds changed) £10 staked in an attempt to return £537.03 :hope (Attempt 4 at Level 2 will be next weekend). Bank now £700.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles SelectionsTime of bet: 17/03/2006 21:42:35 Event DateEventSelectionsOddsE/W TermsResult118/03/2006Blackburn v Middlesbrough (Full Time Result)Blackburn 4/5NoneTo Run218/03/2006West Ham v Portsmouth (Full Time Result)West Ham 1/1NoneTo Run318/03/2006Crystal Palace v Ipswich (Full Time Result)Crystal Palace 8/11NoneTo Run418/03/2006QPR v Brighton (Full Time Result)QPR 8/11NoneTo Run518/03/2006Reading v Wolverhampton (Full Time Result)Reading 4/6NoneTo Run618/03/2006Bristol City v Gillingham (Full Time Result)Bristol City 4/5NoneTo Run718/03/2006Peterborough v Barnet (Full Time Result)Peterborough 4/6NoneTo Run MultiplesBet TypeNo of BetsUnit StakeStakeTo WinReturnsSeven-Folds110.0010.00527.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SensiSteve Posted March 18, 2006 Share Posted March 18, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Hiya Fleet, Unlucky with Tranmere last night. Its probably a little late but i have been playing around with your new 7-fold this morning. If you were to place the bet at Betfred on their 7th heaven coupon you would get a return of around £566. I only mention this as the difference between you return and the betfred return would cover your failed attempt from last night. just thought it might be worth thinking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porta Posted March 18, 2006 Share Posted March 18, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles I have put it back on just as a 6 fold and I also went on betfair and layed all 6 aways.We can afford 1 winner and still be in profit.:drums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted March 18, 2006 Share Posted March 18, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Better late than never eh Fleet ?? Sorry, Ive been busy and forgot to alert the Bosses ;););) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Posted March 18, 2006 Share Posted March 18, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Reading - Drew:$ West Ham - Lost:$ Bristol City - Won:) Palace - Drew:$ Peterborough - Drew:$ QPR - Drew:$ Blackburn - Won:) Accrington - Drew:$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 18, 2006 Author Share Posted March 18, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles And on to another weekend so soon! Odds taken from bet365 as that is where I place my bets. Treble: teams that rate 30+ 43 Accrington 4/7 drew 1-1 :wall 42 Huddersfield 1/2 won 4-1 :D 38 Grimsby 1/2 won 2-1 :D 38 Wycombe 1/2 lost 0-1 :@ 35 Reading 4/6 drew 1-1 :wall 33 Bolton 1/3 won 2-0 :D 31 West Ham 4/5 lost 2-4 :@ Additional 7-fold qualifiers that rate 20+: 29 Colchester 8/15 won 1-0 :D 26 Arsenal 3/10 won 3-0 :D 26 Bristol City 4/5 won 6-0 :rollin 25 Crystal Palace 8/11 drew 2-2 :wall 24 Peterborough 4/6 drew 2-2 :wall 23 Tranmere 8/11 :@ 22 QPR 8/11 drew 1-1 :wall 21 Blackburn 5/6 won 3-2 :D 20 Doncaster 1/1 lost 1-2 :@ Treble selection: 3 teams with best odds as always: 43 Accrington 4/7 :@ 35 Reading 4/6 :@ 31 West Ham 4/5 :@ Turns out Accrington make it in as some poor odds on the others. £10 staked in an attempt to return £47.14 :hope Bank now £305.04 7-fold: 7 teams with best odds between 8/15 and 10/11: 35 Reading 4/6* :@ 31 West Ham 4/5 :@ 26 Bristol City 4/5 :D 25 Crystal Palace 8/11 :@ 23 Tranmere 8/11 :@ 22 QPR 8/11 :@ 21 Blackburn 5/6 :D *Peterborough have same odds but as Reading rate higher I have gone for Reading. then Peterborough added drew 2-2 :wall £36.50 staked in an attempt to return £1862.12 :hope (Attempt 3 at Level 2). Bank now £710.50 Hmmmmm - 1 match on Friday and the 7-fold could fall at the first.Only 7 qualifiers managed to win, let alone just our selections. :@ A goddamn awful day, only brightened up by The 'Fleet winning 2-0 and the scum getting whooped 6-0! :rollin Treble selection: Bank now £305.04 Next bet: £10 7-fold selections: Bank now £700.50 Next bet: £36.50 (Attempt 4 at Level 2). I'm off to get my lotto numbers based on the 6 goals at West Ham & Bristol City. :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 18, 2006 Author Share Posted March 18, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Starting to wonder if the winning period was a blip. Still, money in the bank to play with I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted March 18, 2006 Share Posted March 18, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles I wouldn't get too downhearted if I were you Fleet. 1) You're still in profit. Staggering profit compared to the relatively small stakes you're risking. 2) The season is drawing to its climax where surprise results are bound to happen. Look at Stevenage ... lose everytime you bet on them and draw when you bet against them :wall and... 3) At least you're losing (and winning) consecutively:\. This might sound ridiculous and I'm no veteran when it comes to betting, but with your staking plan it's much better than you started winning first and are now losing, than win one week and lose then next. Still a lot that can be done with this! I'm not for one second hinting that you should change anything, but, for me at least draw no bet has returned a profit and it might be a bit early to say, but there seem to be trends in the success ratio of the higher divisions than the lower ones, although this judgement is made after only a very quick glimpse of past results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 18, 2006 Author Share Posted March 18, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Draw no bet doesn't give a big enough return, considering the risk of one loser killing the bet remains the same. So many ideas of things to change about it but I wasn't thinking of changes when I was winning, was I?:notworthy I have to learn to take the rough with the smooth :spank - we still have enough in the bank for 41 more 7-folds without a win - 7 x £36.50, dropping to 34 x £10 if no wins. That is not including my £100 starting bank either.:clap We have enough cash in the treble bank for another 30 £10 trebles without a win - the second one comes in, we're using new profits to play the following week. (Or 20 if you take away my £100 starting bank.) How many other systems could take a losing runs like these and still not be at a loss? So there's plenty of life in this yet - with my staking plan, once a season will do for winning and pay for the system to run without any extra cash but I don't want people to get disheartened by the losing weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted March 19, 2006 Share Posted March 19, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles No, you wasn't thinking of changes when you was winning. Too many loss in a run make most punter do crazy things instead of sticking to the original betting-system. And most bookies benefit from punters like that. A losing-streak is bound to happen for everyone. That's life. Instead of changing your original settings for your system you should be far more careful in your selections instead. Remember that it's getting late in the season in and anything can happen. Too often do we see bottomteams win or draw against topteams smply because they have to avoid relegation. And sometimes the topteams seem to relax a bit simply because they have no need of doing their best on the pitch. I think that what's happened in the match between Reading and Wolves. I don't think there's any need for changes but you should be more careful. Remember that it's not how much you win that really matter. It's how much you're not losing. N-H :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 19, 2006 Author Share Posted March 19, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Some good points there - look at League 1 yesterday - MK Dons 2 Southend 1 - the bottom club beat the top club - another example of why not to back away teams in this system. My concern is, in being more selective, we would still be changing the way we select teams? Yesterday would have been hard anyway, if you look at the qualifiers - just 7 of them winning in total. I did toy around with comparing the home teams form over both the last 6 matches and last 4 matches and noted down the matches where the home team scored higher than the away team on both counts. (Hey it was a quiet day at work!) 23 matches - 13 home wins 5 draws 5 aways: Arsenal vs Charlton 3/10 :D Bolton vs Sunderland 1/3 :D Everton vs Villa 10/11 :D Man City vs Wigan 1/1 :@ West Ham vs Portsmouth 1/1 :@ Crystal Palace vs Ipswich 8/11 :wall Norwich vs Sheff Utd 6/4 :D QPR vs Brighton 8/11 :wall Stoke vs Burnley 10/11 :D Tranmere vs Walsall 8/11 :@ Blackpool vs Port Vale 5/4 :D Bristol City vs Gillingham 4/5 :D Hartlepool vs Barnsley 6/4 :wall Huddersfield vs Rotherham 1/2 :D Grimsby vs Bury 1/2 :D Mansfield vs Northampton 6/4 :D Peterborough vs Barnet 4/6 :wall Rochdale vs Wrexham 13/10 :@ Stockport vs Macclesfield 10/11 :D Wycombe vs Torquay 1/2 :@ Accrington vs Stevenage 4/7 :wall Crawley vs Forest Green 11/8 :D Gravesend vs Tamworth 4/6 :D By the time I got home from work and football it was too late to do anything with this but look at some of those odds. 4 above evens, 5 in the range that I prefer. Shame that the same losers still appeared though (Tranmere, West Ham). But we could have been selective with what we knew was happening with West Ham, for example. Now if we could factor in this form comparison somehow..... Other than that, it's a case of going with gut instinct after comparing the qualifiers on my original method and then also the 'double form superiority' list- which kind of defeats the idea of a system. Unless we call the staking plans the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 20, 2006 Author Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Midweek matches offer no bet: Cup matches rated as though they were a league fixture. Man City -3 Birmingham -30 Leeds 17 Bradford 1 Doncaster -2 Gillingham -27 Walsall 9 Bury -1 Cheltenham 17 Rochdale -18 Scarborough -20 Southport -36 Woking 16 Chelsea 39 Boston -8 Charlton 5 On the other hand, Doncaster, Chelsea & Boston have the edge when comparing prev 4 and prev 6 matches form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Hi FF, Nicely done again - do you have any figure for the Southampton v Watford match tonight ? :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 20, 2006 Author Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Hi FF, Nicely done again - do you have any figure for the Southampton v Watford match tonight ? :okTechnically, it was rated with the weekend matches & scored -15 as I tend to class Fri to Mon as 'weekend fixtures'. Man City vs West Ham didn't fall into this bracket as they both had a game on Saturday. If you were to rate it today, it would score -16 as other results dropped Southampton a place in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 20, 2006 Author Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles After the West Ham fiasco, a new rule to be implemented and that is under similar circumstances, the team in question will be excluded. Systems evolve as you learn from your mistakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles wow! just discovered this thread! what a belter! hi there fleet et al! amazing. i know you've all been mega successful with accies, but has anyone been through this thread and worked out the % yield if SINGLE bets were done? cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 21, 2006 Author Share Posted March 21, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles I'd imagine the profits would be smaller though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles wow! just discovered this thread! what a belter! hi there fleet et al! amazing. i know you've all been mega successful with accies, but has anyone been through this thread and worked out the % yield if SINGLE bets were done? cheers I haven't looked at previous picks, but will be paper trailing until the end of the season. I'm also looking at laying the away team for the strong home selections, and laying the weak home teams with negative ratings (last weekend was not good for that!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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