mowgli77 Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 I have taken a very early 40-1 on Lord Of Illusion with Bet 365. Other firms are pricing it at 25s and 33s. The trainer says it will be aimed at the national, jumps well and has plenty of stamina. Finished 2nd last time out but will probably appreciate the marathon trip. I'd think it will be there at the end when plenty of others have fallen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 Re: Early thoughts for Grand National I think i've said it b4 on other threads...I can not see past Clan Royal..I feel that if it had got a clear run last year it would have won quite easy..And McCoy has to win it 1 year...Doesnt he? lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 Re: Early thoughts for Grand National I think i've said it b4 on other threads...I can not see past Clan Royal..I feel that if it had got a clear run last year it would have won quite easy..And McCoy has to win it 1 year...Doesnt he? lol Gotta be Eurotrek after yesterdays performance and Paul Nicholls stating after the race that The National would be his next target as Cheltenham would not suit him! Paddypowers' 25/1 for him looks great! and i've had some of it.... Regards, Jonesy Knows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 The Grand National..... Very early I know. But who has any decent ante-post bets on already. After watching Eurotrek win by 25 lengths at Newmarket (was it?) and then by 15 lengths yeasterday I have backed him E/W at 20/1. I think the major problem could be the ground, but 20/1 has got to be worth an E/W punt... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... Theres some very strong stats available for the national mate that should be followed. For example, last year, Hedgehunter was the first horse to carry over 11stone to victory since 1983 i think it was. The reason why that trend was bucked last year was that the weights were compressed i.e. the bottom weight carried 10stone 6lbs rather than the usual 10 stone. Generally you need a horse with a small weight to carry and for that reason Hedgehunter may struggle to retain his title this time round with even more weight to carry. Ignoring horses carrying over 11 stone can rule out about 10 horses, including some of the market leaders. Ill see if I can dig out some stats..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... The below is cut and pasted from last years National thread so doesnt take into account last years results. Ill update it when ive checked out the Racingpost website... Only Amberleigh House, Papillon and Red Marauder carried more than 10st 10lb's to victory in the last 11 years. Red Marauder can be considered a fluke winner. I would suggest crossing a line through anything carrying more than 11 stone. Although Amberleigh House defied the trends last year, horses that have run before should be treated with caution. 96 have tried with only 3 placings and 2 wins between them. The other win was the farce of a race won by Red Marauder. No Novices have won since 1958. 89 years since a 6 year old won it. 64 years since a 7 year old won it. Best to ignore anything over 10 years old. Red Marauder and Amberleigh House are the only 2 runners older than 10 to make the first 2 in the last 8 renewals. Every winner since 1970 has winning form over a minimum of 3 miles. Cheltenham winners dont win. (probably because they have had a tough race only a couple of weeks previously) The last 20 winners ran within 42 days for fitness purposes. 13 of the last 14 winners ran off a mark of at least 137 in a handicap during that season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socky1 Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... Come on lads lets get Cheltenham out of the way first , Mind u having said I do kinda of fancie Le duc and Double Honour , However both would likley get big weights off thier current marks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 Re: Early thoughts for Grand National I think i've said it b4 on other threads...I can not see past Clan Royal..I feel that if it had got a clear run last year it would have won quite easy..And McCoy has to win it 1 year...Doesnt he? lol When we had the first PL raceday at Worcester,, Jonjo O'Neil was kind enough to have a few words with a few of us int he parade ring. I think it was Big Andy who asked him whether he was gutted about Clan Royals run in the National and Jonjo replied that he didnt think he would have won the race as he hit the front too soon, which was interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... Sport Horse Racing EventGrand National SelectionGarvivonnian (Each-Way) Strength2/10 Date08/04/2006 Bookmaker/PriceStan James @ 34.00 (Back) ReasoningAn early antepost beet for the National, which i think looks overpriced and will be shorter on the day. What do we need to win a National? proven Stamina? A good jumper? not too much weight to carry (preferably below 11 stone)? Ability to handle the Aintree Fences? A horse that fits all of those qualities is GARVIONNIAN. He won over the National fences in the Becher Chase in November and wasnt showing any signs of stopping over a trip of 3m 3f. he has also won over 3m 4f ast Cork, giving the impression that his stamina shouldnt be an issue. He has been aimed at this race for a couple of years now and with a good prep race behinmd Gold Cup hopeful forget the past under his belt and being entered with a weight of 10st 6lb, looks to have all the attributes to run a good race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted March 18, 2006 Author Share Posted March 18, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... I took Hedgehunter last year early on Ante Post at 25-1 but only to small stakes in case it didn't run. I based that choice on watching the previous years national again and analysing it. I've done that this time and Clan Royal obviously stood out but also Innox which then went and won not so long ago. I would really fancy Hedgehunter if it wasn't for all the weight it will carry but it had plenty in hand last year and finished really strongly. Lord Of Illusion is a good jumper and will carry a decent weight but it always runs up with the pace and could easily wear itself out. Clan Royal and Hedgehunter seem too short at around 6-1 but if they go and win by fifteen lengths like an odds on horse we'll be cursing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 19, 2006 Share Posted March 19, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... I was going to lay Hedgehunter for a place at around 2.4 due to all the weight he will have to carry but then i saw his run in the Gold Cup and its made me think twice. On the bright side, that run on Friday could take a lot out of him. I'll wait for the weights to be finalised first, but if the weight is well spread across the field, with the bottom weights carrying 10stone, then Hedgehunters going to have a stiff task to win off top weight, regardless of how good a horse he is. If the weights are compressed like last year, then it gives him a chance :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gripper Posted March 19, 2006 Share Posted March 19, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... After the cheltenham race a think Hedgehunter has a cracking chance to get placed. But i really fancy Eurotrek too win it big time when i won at warwick very easy but then went to haydock and carried a stone more in weight and got pulled up. 1st = Eurotrek 2nd = Hedgehunter 3rd = Clan Royal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 19, 2006 Share Posted March 19, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... NIL DESPERANDUM finished 6th last year ahead of Innox by 11L. it was giving Innox 5lb that day & this time round receives 6lbs for the same horse, therefore efectively being 11lb better off for an 11L defeat which should mean the horse can beat Innox again. Innox's price is 16/1 as it is trained by Doumen & had an eyecatching run LTO at Sandown where L'Ami franked the form again by running 4th in the gold cup. The horse ran well at Down Royal last week beaten 2.5L by Jack High on heavy ground over 3.25 miles. It took the same route last year when defeating Kadoun (won last weeks Pertemps!) at DownRoyal over 3.25miles. In it's novice days in 2003 it accounted for both Central House & Fota Island in different races. It appears to be the right age at 9yo, & lathough would lack the speed of Hedgehunter is a decent jumper having never fallen in 22 jump races (slipped up once). It's 40/1 with Sporting odds at the moment but i will monitor from now to see what i can get on ew. Innox at 16/1 Sporting odds looks worthy of a place at those odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoneedsrio Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... I was going to lay Hedgehunter for a place at around 2.4 due to all the weight he will have to carry but then i saw his run in the Gold Cup and its made me think twice. On the bright side, that run on Friday could take a lot out of him. I'll wait for the weights to be finalised first, but if the weight is well spread across the field, with the bottom weights carrying 10stone, then Hedgehunters going to have a stiff task to win off top weight, regardless of how good a horse he is. If the weights are compressed like last year, then it gives him a chance :ok At the moment Monkerhostin is set to carry top weight of 11st 12lb off a rating of 158 but is highly unlikely to run. In that case hedgehunter would then carry 11st 12lb & the weights would all raise 2lb & those on 130 (down to Windsor Boy) would be on 10st & anything else would be out of the handicap proper. There are 85 entries from Hedgehunter to Windsor Boy & the safety limit is 40 so it looks unlikely that anything from out of the handicap will get in. I like your choice of Garvivonnian, as you state he has course form, jumps well, looks like he'll stay, should just squeeze in at the bottom of the weights & the form behind Forget the Past looks even better after that ones good third in the Gold cup. Will go on any ground which is important as it can soon turn testing at Aintree with any significant rain. I've also taken the 33/1 still on offer with Stan James. Garvivonnian 10pts @ 33/1 Stan James. The prices on offer for Hedgehunter are nothing short of a joke & he's unlikely to start shorter on the the day so why would you risk betting now when he could sustain an injury & not even run. Off a mark 12lb higher than last year & lumping that weight he is one to take on. Clan Royal looks to have been given every chance but the same applies in that he is unlikely to be shorter on the day. Jonjo's not the luckiest trainer in the game, three killed at the festival & lost others before, this one carried out last year. Even as a jockey he was on Alverton, the Gold cup winner & going well when coming down at Becher's second time round & breaking his neck. The other for me is Sir Rembrandt. 13l seventh in the Gold cup following two placed runs in that race before & he has a touch of class. Run well in the past off ratings as high as 168 & gets in here off 145 & set to carry 11st 1lb. Generally a safe jumper & goes on any going & looks like he could stay forever at the same pace, if he gets round he looks sure to put in a strong finish. Sir Rembrandt 10pts @ 25/1 Ladbrokes. Rio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... In that case, we are probably looking at a repeat of last years weights, with bottom weight carrying around 10 stone 6lb's, which brings some of those carrying more than 11 stone into play, which complicates matters! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoneedsrio Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... I would agree AK, the handicapper is now given licence to frame the weights as a one off race rather than use the horses current ratings. As you say this compresses the weights & has more running in the handicap proper making the race more competitive, which is all the more reason to look beyond the obvious. Whilst the days of chucking out anything over 11st & those running from out of the handiacap proper, leaving a band of runners from which the winner would more often than not come from seem to have gone I would still favour something with not much over 11st to carry. Rio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drawback05 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... Hedgehunter will be following in the footsteps of Rough Quest by finishing 2nd in a Gold Cup and then turning up three weeks later at Aintree. Having missed the value last year, think that 6/1 will be a reasonable price this year. I think that the ratings say that Friday's run was one of his best, so as long as they keep him in cotton wool from now on, he should run a big race. The field as a whole looks understrength to me so I'll be on the Hedge, not the fence, this time round ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... I've backed Numbersixvalverde @ 17.0 on betfair and 4.9 a place He's the Irish National winner and looks to have been traied for the race. Not proven over the fences but he is a sound jumper and has a nice weight. Thats me done for this year (already!). just going to see how this and Garvivinnian run for me now. By the way - Blue Square are now trading NON RUNNER NO BET Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... Tip Detail SportHorse Racing EventGrand National SelectionRoyal Auclair (Each-Way) Strength2/10 Date08/04/2006 Bookmaker/PriceBetDirect @ 26.00 (Back) ReasoningRoyal Auclair was 2nd to Hedgehunter last year and is expected to go close again. Rather disappointing of late after a good start to the season. The ground looks similar to last year is a good jumper so a decent run for your money looks assured. 16/1 in some places and the fav is poor value at around 6/1. This looks a value EW bet to me and expect it start much lower than 25's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... Can anyone tell me when the runners are finalised please? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socky1 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... well the five day decs will be passed tomorrow which should give a clear indication of most of the runners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted April 4, 2006 Share Posted April 4, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... Tuesday Sunrise 06:39 (BST) Sunset 19:51 (BST) 9°C 1°C 8 good 1023 34 Wednesday Sunrise 06:37 (BST) Sunset 19:53 (BST)10°C 5°C 10 moderate 1020 54 Thursday Sunrise 06:35 (BST) Sunset 19:55 (BST)11°C 3°C 12 moderate 1015 77 Friday Sunrise 06:32 (BST) Sunset 19:57 (BST)13°C 4°C 13 moderate 1011 59 Saturday Sunrise 06:30 (BST) Sunset 19:59 (BST)10°C 5°C 6 moderate 1010 68 It looks like it's going to be genuine good ground for the National as you can see the forecast above! As I was coming home from work this evening it did snow a little bit and I'm about 3 miles from the course. I will look at the field once the main protagonists have decided who will be riding who and I will hopefully comeback with 2 or 3 with I feel a genuine chance of getting in the money! Regards, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socky1 Posted April 4, 2006 Share Posted April 4, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... Despite the good weather forecast I still feel there will be certian amount of cut in the ground on the day. 1st off there has been alot of rainfull in the area over the last week which has resulted in other local tracks being waterlogged. Add to that the the racing on thursday and friday is bound to soften what is already a wet suface. Also they have been known to water the track alot in recent years in the lead up to big race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted April 4, 2006 Author Share Posted April 4, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... Tom George has stated that Lord Of Illusion won't run if the ground is soft but also stated that different tactics will be used. It usually blazes around in front but would not get the 4m4f running like that. I think it's a very interesting runner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 4, 2006 Share Posted April 4, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... ive not read the whole thread sorry for any double picks but a few I fancy; Ebony light. DunDoir(is this still running most papers etc have its listed but the star didnt)( up 30lbs from chelt but giving 2 stones away to Headhunter) headhunter(shit price) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 4, 2006 Share Posted April 4, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... another one Ive had word for is: Gavivonnian and Sir OJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 4, 2006 Share Posted April 4, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... Heres my thoughts on your fancies Carl.... I dont think Dun Doire is going to make the cut mate - needs about 15 horses to drop out I think :unsure I cant see Sir OJ staying the trip, he hasnt won a race over 3 miles + , which is pretty much a prerequisite for winning the national Hedgehunter needs to run a HUGE race to win it again. Carries top weight off the back of a tough Gold Cup race at the festival. His preparation this year contrasts to that of last year. Last year he came into the race with a 72 day break, having had a light campaign, solely geared towards winning the National. This year, he has figured in a few top quality races and has had an all round tougher campaign. If the ground is on the soft side, i am laying him for a place. I havent looked at Ebony Light. I've backed Garvivonnian @ 33/1 and i think he has a big chance. He's been well backed this week down to 16's in some places :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted April 5, 2006 Share Posted April 5, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... So far I'm looking at (current prices): Jack High 14's General Direct Access 28's General Garvivonnian 20's Ladbrokes Le Duc 50s William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 5, 2006 Share Posted April 5, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... cheers AK. I noticed that Headhunter is 11lbs up from last years win but I still fancy it after that great run at chelt. I think I'll concentrate on Garvivonnian as a E/W as I can see a biggish price winning it this year IF Headhunter fooks up. I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 5, 2006 Share Posted April 5, 2006 Re: The Grand National..... Full preview here with runner profiles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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