tipstar Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 going to start with a bank of 100pts and back one fav a day :ok Todays victim 12.30 Ayr Harmony Brig got 2.7 on BF earlier now 2.4 so will use the later :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 3, 2006 Author Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Will put it up earlier tomorrow was busy & didnt realise the time I typed in the above prices wrong because I was in a rush should be 1.27 & 1.24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day You sure mean 1.4, tipstar;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 3, 2006 Author Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day no I actualy got 1.28 deleted the stake return dont want to brag ;) 2006-01-03 12:38 1901155561 2006-01-03 09:31 UK Ayr 3rd Jan / 12:30 2m Mdn Hrd / Harmony Brig Back 1.28 Won Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day A winner in the end;) Are you going to back long odds-on shots only in your quest?;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day In that kind of race with a 1/5 shot more profitable to look at backing the 2nd Fav or 3rd Fav Each-Way. Which I did 2nd 20/1 and 3rd 8/1. Still better then 1/5 and the chance of a big pay out if the favourite does not run well or fells. The bookies hate that kind of bet!!!! Here is the maths based on Betfair reflecting true odds. Chateau Rouge win odds 8/1(12/1 true odds) return = 69% long term place odds 2.6(1.6 true odds) return = 162% long term Therefore average return = 115.5% long term Similiarly figures for the 2nd that was 20/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 3, 2006 Author Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day just depends which fav I thinks going to win, price is something I decide on after I have picked which I think is the likely winning fav of the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Thanks for clarifying, tipstar. Well done, cavelloman, I don't think you were the only one on the 2nd and 3rd favs today - just check DHRC. Be careful though as this is considered a bit of after-eventing. ALSO, the second placed horse was the 3rd favourite last night, but would hardly be considered 3rd fav today - he was drifting the whole morning and before the race, there were THREE horses nad the fav, pretty much shorted to place - this one was freely available @ 3/1;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 3, 2006 Author Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day In that kind of race with a 1/5 shot more profitable to look at backing the 2nd Fav or 3rd Fav Each-Way. What makes you think I didnt ;) why dont you start a thread and put up your e/w shots . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day This is more of a system, but I will highlight any possible races. It essentialy requires a race with a odds-on shot with a clearly defined 2nd and possible 3rd favourite(generally when favourite extremely short). Field size should be be in the range 8-11 runners, will be a non-handicap. It is necessary to place bets late to avoid not geting 1/5 odds first 3 if runners are withdrawn. N.B in the next race 2nd finished third I did not back it because not clearly defined 2nd fav. Also if you get greedy bets will be refused. Use the mathematical method I used in previous posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Also if you get greedy bets will be refused. :loon cavelloman, I suggest you open your own Ali Baba thread and highlight the e/w shots overthere as tipstar already said, rather than hijack this one, which would also be confusing as he's gonna pick short favs and you long shots - ehm, then again the 20/1 was hardly a clearly defined 2nd or 3rd fav, mate;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 4, 2006 Author Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Had a look at all the favs today, to be honest I wouldnt back any of them with FREE MONEY :loon never mind my own . I wont pick a fav just for the sake of it as I back all my selections with real cash. So today is a no go :sad Looks a good day for the layers . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 4, 2006 Author Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Looks a good day for the layers . First race Fav goes in :rollin theyll most probably all go in now Ive said that :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 4, 2006 Author Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Thursdays Fav wolv 12.35 Mystic Man 13/8 rp All prices will be @ sp Bet 10.00% Start bank 100.00 Date Meeting type Horse Price bet Result return bank 3.1.06 Ayr Jumps Harmony Brig 1.22 10.00 w 2.20 102.20 5.1.06 wolv AW Mystic Man 10.22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 5, 2006 Author Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Thursdays Fav wolv 12.35 Mystic Man 13/8 rp (won @ 4/5) Bet 10.00% Start bank 100.00 Date Meeting type Horse Price bet Result return bank 3.1.06 Ayr Jumps Harmony Brig 1.22 10.00 w 2.20 102.20 5.1.06 wolv AW Mystic Man 1.80 10.22 w 8.18 110.38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 5, 2006 Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day :clap 2/2 well done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 5, 2006 Author Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Cheers Bowles but a long way to go yet :eyes 6/1/06 Towcester 3.20 Perl De Puce @ 10/11 rp Looks like Towcester could be off :( Dont like using a reserve so if its off no bet (reserve would be Newnham Wolvs 4.30 @ evs rp) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 6, 2006 Author Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Towcester s on today so bet stands Bet 10.00% Start bank 100.00 Date Meeting type Horse Price bet Result return bank 3.1.06 Ayr Jumps Harmony Brig 1.22 10.00 w 2.20 102.20 5.1.06 Wolv AW Mystic Man 1.80 10.22 w 8.18 110.38 6.1.06 Towc Jumps Perle De Puce 11.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 7, 2006 Author Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day well a second yesterday :( well Ive been told this system produces a 75-80% sr so not worried about my money after 1 loser As they say onwards and upwards (hopefully) :hope Bet 10.00% Start bank 100.00 Date Meeting type Horse Price bet Result return bank 3.1.06 Ayr Jumps Harmony Brig 1.22 10.00 w 2.20 102.20 5.1.06 Wolv AW Mystic Man 1.80 10.22 w 8.18 110.38 6.1.06 Towc Jumps Perle De Puce 1.80 11.04 l -11.04 99.34 7.1.06 Sand Jumps Refinement 11.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 7, 2006 Author Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Thats better Bet 10.00% Start bank 100.00 Date Meeting type Horse Price bet Result return bank 3.1.06 Ayr Jumps Harmony Brig 1.22 10.00 w 2.20 102.20 5.1.06 Wolv AW Mystic Man 1.80 10.22 w 8.18 110.38 6.1.06 Towc Jumps Perle De Puce 1.80 11.04 l -11.04 99.34 7.1.06 Sand Jumps Refinement 1.83 11.04 w 9.16 108.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sensibleboy Posted January 7, 2006 Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Well done mate. Im keeping an eye on this. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted January 7, 2006 Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Bet10.00%Start bank100.00 DateMeetingtypeHorsePricebetResultreturnbank3.1.06AyrJumpsHarmony Brig1.22 10.00 w2.20 102.20 5.1.06WolvAWMystic Man1.80 10.22 w8.18 110.38 6.1.06TowcJumpsPerle De Puce1.80 11.04 l-11.04 99.34 7.1.06SandJumpsRefinement1.83 11.04 w9.16 108.50 Just a query. Above your bet amount you quote 10%. After the first loss shouldnt the stake for your last bet be 9.00 not 11.04? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3hree Posted January 8, 2006 Share Posted January 8, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Excellent start mate, am definately following this thread daily from now, as I do with Quick System. Just hope that your luck doesn't follow the only day I managed to follow this system that's highlighted in red! Best of luck, great idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 8, 2006 Author Share Posted January 8, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Just a query. Above your bet amount you quote 10%. After the first loss shouldnt the stake for your last bet be 9.00 not 11.04? Hi wfte I thought someone would ask this ;) I use a sort of plateau staking with high strike rate ( :hope ) and low odds bets. The bet never decreases after a loss but only increases when the bank rises above the last peak the bank was at . ie the highest the bank has been since posting is 110.38 = 11.04 stake next bet. This will stay @ 11.04 until the bank rises above 110.38 then 10% of the new bank will be staked. johnyrushton So it was you who gave the bet the bad ju-ju :rollin and you a fellow red as well :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 8, 2006 Share Posted January 8, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Tipstar, hows it going mate. I used to use this staking method but the only difference was that i used to reevaluate the stakes after each winner, therefore always giving you 10 chances whatever the situation. Best of luck mate, long winning runs needed i reckon but can be done by being very selective. BH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 8, 2006 Author Share Posted January 8, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Cheers BH Mondays selection 1.40 Newc King of Confusion 4/5 rp :hope Bet 10.00% Start bank 100.00 Date Meeting type Horse Price bet Result return bank 3.1.06 Ayr Jumps Harmony Brig 1.22 10.00 w 2.20 102.20 5.1.06 Wolv AW Mystic Man 1.80 10.22 w 8.18 110.38 6.1.06 Towc Jumps Perle De Puce 1.80 11.04 l -11.04 99.34 7.1.06 Sand Jumps Refinement 1.83 11.04 w 9.16 108.50 8.1.06 Newc Jumps King of Confusion 11.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3hree Posted January 8, 2006 Share Posted January 8, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Will warn you, i'm gonna back this one too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Must be the extra weight of your money Johnny :( Bet 10.00% Start bank 100.00 Date Meeting type Horse Price bet Result return bank 3.1.06 Ayr Jumps Harmony Brig 1.22 10.00 w 2.20 102.20 5.1.06 Wolv AW Mystic Man 1.80 10.22 w 8.18 110.38 6.1.06 Towc Jumps Perle De Puce 1.80 11.04 l -11.04 99.34 7.1.06 Sand Jumps Refinement 1.83 11.04 w 9.16 108.50 8.1.06 Newc Jumps King of Confusion 1.61 11.04 l -11.04 97.46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3hree Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day I'll lay off for a few days:( Mush Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: 1 Fav a day Hope you didnt lose too much mate :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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