Racing Chat - Sunday 15th September

[The Brigadier]

A bumper day of flat racing from both sides of the Irish Sea - Good luck with whatever you're backing.

Here's my thoughts on the ITV races :-

 

Curragh 1.50

The first of nine races covered by our good friends at ITV is a real head scratcher! Twenty six go to post for this 6F Premier Handicap which as you can imagine has a wide open look about it. British raiders have a good record in these sprint handicaps in Ireland over the past few years and the best of the three contenders today appears to be the Richard Fahey trained Strike Red. A winner of a similar contest over course and distance in July 2023 from a one pound higher mark he’s been banging on the door over here this summer finishing runner up to Elmonjed at York last time out. As long as a draw of stall 3 isn’t a hinderance he looks great each way value under Billy Garrity.

 

STRIKE RED 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

Doncaster 2.05

In a competitive looking class 3 5F handicap it may pay to take a chance on the Michael Bell trained four year old Brave Nation. His track record on Town Moor reads 1121 including victories here over today’s trip in July and August. He wasn’t disgraced last time out at Southwell in a Racing League handicap going down by a short head and a head and although shunted up a couple of pounds may still be able to go close under Hector Crouch.

 

BRAVE NATION 1 point each way @ 8/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234

 

Curragh 2.25

Paddy Twomeys’ Purple Lily is a lightly raced three year old who can make her presence felt in this Group 2 Moyglare “Jewels” Blandford Stakes over 10F. A winner of two her five career starts she ran her best ever race last time out in the Irish Oaks when running third (of 14) beaten 2 1/4L to You Got To Me and Content who filled the same positions since in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks to boost the form. The re-opposing Elizabeth Jane was 1 1/2L back in fourth and looks held. She’s dropping back two furlongs today and looks sue to be thereabouts under Billy Lee, her regular rider.

 

PURPLE LILY 1 point win @ 3/1 Ladbrokes

 

Doncaster 2.40

A trappy 7F class 2 handicap in which a small stakes each way wager is advised on the William Haggas trained Germanic. Racing in the same colours as the smart Economics he looked a horse going places when winning at Newcastle in June by 11L. He went down by a short head to the promising Bobby Bennu 19 days later at Thirsk and although that one has been beaten twice since the third that day has won twice since. Germanic didn’t help himself with by getting loose before the start so into a handicap and sporting a first time visor he can be competitive under Cieran Fallon.

 

GERMANIC 1 point each way @ 7/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Curragh 3.00

An intriguing renewal of the Group 1 7F Moyglare Stud Stakes for two-year-old fillies with just five declaring. Three of the quintet are trained by Aidan O’Brien with the Ballydoyle number one appearing to be the Ryan Moore ridden Bedtime Story. She didn’t sparkle like she had previously when beating her re-opposing stable mate Exactly last time out over course and distance in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes by half a length. Her trainer did state afterwards that she had been left a bit short with today’s race in mind and she is a confident selection to show she’s smart.

 

BEDTIME STORY 1 point win @ 11/10 William Hill

 

Doncaster 3.15

This twelve runner Group 3 Sceptre Fillies’ Stakes looks very open with seven of the dozen covered by just 4lb on official ratings. William Haggas could be in for a good day and his four-year-old Doom maybe worth playing to small stakes each way. Although he was a bit disappointing last time over a mile at Sandown the drop back to 7F may suit this daughter of Dubawi whose two career victories have come over this intermediate trip. Cieran Fallon rides for owner James Wigan.

 

DOOM 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Curragh 3.35

A field of eighteen race for the Group 1 Bar One Flying Five Stakes over the minimum trip of 5F. The betting revolves around the Nunthorpe one-two Bradsell and Believing. There was just 3/4L between them at the line in that prestigious 5F Group one at York although it can be argued that Bradsell had the best of the draw under Hollie Doyle on the far side. There isn’t likely to be much between them again but I have to stick with Archie Watson’s four year old who was only having his second start of the season at York and will be hard to beat with Hollie Doyle remaining in the plate.

 

BRADSELL 1 point win @ 7/4 Betfred

 

Doncaster 3.45

The annual Leger Legends race is up next. Run over the straight mile of Town Moor and attracting a maximum field of sixteen with former jockeys from both codes coming out of retirement. It’s a class 5 0-70 classified stakes and lacking plenty of quality. A wide open contest in which I’ll take a stab at the Megan Nicholls ridden Terries Royal who comes here having won a ladies amateur riders handicap last week at Ascot under the evergreen Serena Brotherton. Trained by Mick Appleby this will only be the geldings eighth career start and there maybe a bit more improvement to come.

 

TERRIES ROYAL 1 point each way @ 9/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Doncaster 4.15

One of the better value bets for me on the card today is Marco Botti’s grey Silver Samurai who is weighted to go close in this eleven runner 6F 111 yard class 2 handicap. The seven-year-old is two from two at Town Moor with his latest victory coming over course and distance in June off of the same handicap mark as today’s. He’s had excuses for his two defeats since (short of room on first and pulled too hard on second) and Daniel Muscutt, who was on board for his June win, back in the saddle looks good each way value.

 

SILVER SAMURAI 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Value each way patent:-

Strike Red (1.50 Curragh)

Brave Nation (205 Doncaster)

Silver Samurai (415 Doncaster)

 

 

[richard-westwood]

205 Doncaster 

Badri 421 13/2 Val 0.65

Haymaker. 401 7/1 Val 0.70

Good earth  398 13/2 Val 0.65 

Overall given his big form rating I think badri is the value bet ....probably better at 6f look for him coming late ...

5pt Ew badri