Racing chat -weds 24th July

[Villa Chris]

11 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I just don't understand it .....they can have huge ratings and come in ...10th ....maybe I am missing a vital course or draw stat ...it's very possible .....if you have any draw stats for the courses it would be helpful ???....and I'll give it another go when a race pops up incorparating the data ?

I’ve known you have some big wins on Irish. 

[richard-westwood]

16 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I’ve known you have some big wins on Irish. 

Even my friends curse me when I bet on Irish 🤣🤣......it's ridiculously bad .....they just don't bother betting because the results are stupid .....you can have a horse rated 400 ....and a 50/1 rated 344 .....and the 344 will win by over five lengths over the 400 .....it's that bad and you just think wtf 😒...time and time again .....I'm either missing a vital piece or all the figures for the races over there are totally inaccurate ....( Course standards ....postmarks etc .) Which is possible .....I just don't know ...all I know is it doesn't happen in France 🤣🤣

Edited Thursday at 12:10 PM by richard-westwood

[LeMale]

40 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I just don't understand it .....they can have huge ratings and come in ...10th ....maybe I am missing a vital course or draw stat ...it's very possible .....if you have any draw stats for the courses it would be helpful ???....and I'll give it another go when a race pops up incorparating the data ?

I do know that the draw at certain tracks over certain distances does effect races in Ireland, just like some in the UK, but i'm afraid i'm no expert and i don't always agree with "what the papers say" or "atr" etc, etc. (sometimes they don't even agree with each other!) Naas for example has a chute to allow a straight 5 and 6f (yesterdays race) and races i've seen seem to come over to the right, right-middle, (high numbers are that side) and i believe it matters more when it's wet, (soft/heavy) not as much when dry, which is why i was a little surprised that a group yesterday stayed on the left rail because i heard it was light showers and the going seemed to change from good to yielding. (i don't know for a fact, but i've just always assumed that there must be a slight slope from right to left, but i could be wrong) Not as bad over 7f and 8f as should be able to get in place before the turn to the straight, but 10f and 1m 4f i would think a low draw is best as you're turning all the way round to the chute of the 7 and 8f and could have a wide trip for quite a few furlongs. 

I'm not very good at remembering the courses that i've looked at in the past, i will normally get jogged on the day and certain things come back to me, but Leopardstown today, if i'm remembering correctly, i looked at within the past couple of weeks and the draw for the 6f race is important (possibly 7f as well, not sure they have a 5f race there because it would have to start on the bend) From what i've seen you don't want an inside draw (1 or 2, assuming that all stalls go from right to left and i don't know that they do) although you would think you would as the turn comes up quite quick, but i've noticed so many just get stuck on the rail with no where to go, but at the same time maybe not a wide draw as you could be adding on some extra yardage. Having said that, i'm not even sure i've got the right track, but i think i have, they have tracks like Naas and Navan, Killarney and Kilbeggan, Leopardstown,Limerick and Listowel and i get confused. What i do remember is Dundalk is their aw track and Laytown, i believe , is run on a sandy beach! 

[MCLARKE]

I've been to Dundalk, it's a good place for a night out !

[harry_rag]

"I’m cold and I’m hungry and I’m in Dundalk
I’ve got no bus fare, I’ve gotta walk
It’s raining soup and I’ve got a fork
Where be my camper van?"

(From "Bob Wilson - Anchorman" by Half Man Half Biscuit.)

I think there are quite a few race course references in their songs. "Sometimes I set out for Ludlow
Sometimes I end up in Chepstow" from "Grafting Haddock in the George" being the one that most springs to mind.

[Zilzalian]

Well if you want my opinion 😂 on courses and draws its quite simple. What type of race are you dealing with?  I will just digress a tad here and ask,  how do you think Irish horses come over here for the Cheltenham races h'caps chucked in? they didn't get well h'capped by natural processes that's for sure.

Back to the draw  Frankel (obvious best example) won 14 races never got beat by the draw or anything else. @richard-westwood what you do works you make a profit yes? Well you can't be right every time as non of us can and sometimes when you identify an anomaly like your view on the Irish races the answer is simple don't waste your time on them there are plenty of other races to rate elsewhere. You can't rate for every track that's for sure.

Okay it appears that some horse do well at certain courses, is that- a) true?  b) Its the "owners" local track or c) Any other factor? quote ""We are having a day at Yarmouth, can you get the horse ready?" Also bear in mind with H/caps not many horses can survive winning 4/5 hcaps in a season and remain competitive so their h/cap must go up and down why else do you see terms like "back to its winning mark", how did it get back to it's winning mark? Simple, by losing.

There is a tendency among punters to want to believe that the game is 95% straight, it isn't, those of us old enough to remember the Ramsdens and notice stuff also remember that when they packed up and dispersed their horses to other trainers they remarkably had great strike rates for their next 3 runs. Another term used "a group horse in a handicap" how did that happen?

So in conclusion we must accept our losses with as much grace as we accept your wins or put more simply, be honest with ourselves and say I was wrong on that one, we can all find excuses for rating/picking losers and some are valid but it does not change the result or get you your money back.

@MCLARKE is doing well with his speed figures he takes many things into account from my understanding but just as i do he/his ratings pick more losers than winners.

Imagine how wide a spread sheet would have to be to include every possibility and then rank all those possibilities. You would pretty soon get far away from your original idea.

Mordin once said it is ridiculous to have a seller with the same speed rating as a Derby winner so it needed adjustments and i agreed with him until it dawned on me that sellers never race against a derby winners so it didn't matter.

Best tool i have got is Occam's Razor. 😉

 

 

[MCLARKE]

19 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Well if you want my opinion 😂 on courses and draws its quite simple. What type of race are you dealing with?  I will just digress a tad here and ask,  how do you think Irish horses come over here for the Cheltenham races h'caps chucked in? they didn't get well h'capped by natural processes that's for sure.

Back to the draw  Frankel (obvious best example) won 14 races never got beat by the draw or anything else. @richard-westwood what you do works you make a profit yes? Well you can't be right every time as non of us can and sometimes when you identify an anomaly like your view on the Irish races the answer is simple don't waste your time on them there are plenty of other races to rate elsewhere. You can't rate for every track that's for sure.

Okay it appears that some horse do well at certain courses, is that- a) true?  b) Its the "owners" local track or c) Any other factor? quote ""We are having a day at Yarmouth, can you get the horse ready?" Also bear in mind with H/caps not many horses can survive winning 4/5 hcaps in a season and remain competitive so their h/cap must go up and down why else do you see terms like "back to its winning mark", how did it get back to it's winning mark? Simple, by losing.

There is a tendency among punters to want to believe that the game is 95% straight, it isn't, those of us old enough to remember the Ramsdens and notice stuff also remember that when they packed up and dispersed their horses to other trainers they remarkably had great strike rates for their next 3 runs. Another term used "a group horse in a handicap" how did that happen?

So in conclusion we must accept our losses with as much grace as we accept your wins or put more simply, be honest with ourselves and say I was wrong on that one, we can all find excuses for rating/picking losers and some are valid but it does not change the result or get you your money back.

@MCLARKE is doing well with his speed figures he takes many things into account from my understanding but just as i do he/his ratings pick more losers than winners.

Imagine how wide a spread sheet would have to be to include every possibility and then rank all those possibilities. You would pretty soon get far away from your original idea.

Mordin once said it is ridiculous to have a seller with the same speed rating as a Derby winner so it needed adjustments and i agreed with him until it dawned on me that sellers never race against a derby winners so it didn't matter.

Best tool i have got is Occam's Razor. 😉

 

 

Yes, there are so many variables in horse racing that it is impossible to be right most of the time.

We are also never too young to learn, I have always been sceptical about speed figures but since I have been using them since June they have been a revelation with over 100 points profit. Even then 79% of my bets have been losers.

[LeMale]

34 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

"I’m cold and I’m hungry and I’m in Dundalk
I’ve got no bus fare, I’ve gotta walk
It’s raining soup and I’ve got a fork
Where be my camper van?"

(From "Bob Wilson - Anchorman" by Half Man Half Biscuit.)

I think there are quite a few race course references in their songs. "Sometimes I set out for Ludlow
Sometimes I end up in Chepstow" from "Grafting Haddock in the George" being the one that most springs to mind.

I think Half Man Half Biscuit had a hit with "Smells Like Sh*t" makes more sense now.