richard-westwood Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 405 chep Just the one qualifier ULTRAMARINE ....11.88% EDGE 1.66 14/1 1PT EW LEE-GRAYS, yossa6133, black rabbit and 4 others 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 6.10 Worcester Kauto The King 27 7/1 ( my odds 4/1) Lermoos Legend 27 9/2 ( my odds 4/1 Theonlywayiswessex 23 5/2 ( my odds 5/1 I was going to have 1 point each on Kauto and Lermoos as they are both top rated and they were both 7/1 just a couple of hours ago but Lermoos has been backed into 9/2 so that just leaves Kauto . 2 points win . richard-westwood, black rabbit, Bang on and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 8.05 Epsom Hodler 26 12/1 (my odds 7/1) Little Boy Blue 24 15/2 (my odds 15/2) Marlay Park 23 7/1 ( my odds 8/1) Paws For Thought 23 10/1 (my odds 8/1) Top rated is the bet and also the biggest edge . 2 points win Hodler . richard-westwood, black rabbit and harry_rag 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted Thursday at 09:27 AM Share Posted Thursday at 09:27 AM Just put this one up early. Put it in my tracker after Saturday's disappointment with the comments - " well handicapped, apprentice jock couldn't get to settle and cost any chance, look for a pro jockey riding". Well today Clifford Lee takes over and it has been 'nibbled' in the betting. 4.55 Ham Sycamore Gap - 8/1 with 365 (who are paying 3 places) .. so have had a good EW bet. May be others later but this one up early. Nigwilliam, yossa6133 and black rabbit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted Thursday at 10:25 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:25 AM (edited) Pride Of Nepal 7 35 Eps 1/40th of a pt ew 50/1 - 4th Holder 8 05 Eps 1/40th of a pt ew 28/1 Circus Time 8 40 Eps 1/40th of a pt ew 20/1 - 2nd Seamore 6 30 Eps 1/40th of a pt ew 10/1 Edited Friday at 08:28 AM by black rabbit richard-westwood, anaconda69 and Villa Chris 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted Thursday at 10:33 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:33 AM 7 minutes ago, black rabbit said: Pride Of Nepal 7 35 Eps 1/40th of a pt ew 50/1 Holder 8 05 Eps 1/40th of a pt ew 28/1 Circus Time 8 40 Eps 1/40th of a pt ew 20/1 You get some nice prices off your mate 🙂 Bedlam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted Thursday at 10:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:35 AM 2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: You get some nice prices off your mate 🙂 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Thursday at 11:23 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:23 AM (edited) 16 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 405 chep Just the one qualifier ULTRAMARINE ....11.88% EDGE 1.66 14/1 1PT EW # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Airshow 10 108.81 75.89 2 Hurricane Power 8 107.04 48.48 3 Professor Tickle 21 105.53 100.00 4 Ultramarine 13 105.53 61.90 5 Beyond Equal 7.5 104.02 25.97 6 Jax Edge 5.5 102.51 11.90 7 Howzak 3.75 93.47 8 Vape 11 91.96 9 Endowed 41 88.94 Pushing my beginner's luck with Airshow 9/1 win and Prof T 20/1 e/w. I'm already effing with the formula as I've tried throwing the OR into the mix which is what the above reflects. Leaving that out (as per yesterday) would still see Airshow top rated and make it best value and would see Beyond Equal and Vape as 2nd and 3rd rated and value. As I've said, this is mainly an exercise in refining the spreadsheet with a side order of a bit of fun backing a couple of selections. Can you give me a very quick beginners guide as to the value (or otherwise) in these numbers when assessing a race. The OR The RP Topspeed figure The RP "RPR" rating IGNORE THE ABOVE - THERE WAS AN ERROR IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS! SEE UPDATE BELOW. Edited Thursday at 11:47 AM by harry_rag Noticed an error in the formula richard-westwood and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted Thursday at 11:25 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:25 AM 48 minutes ago, black rabbit said: 👍 I’ll join you in the pub and cat house if this comes in 😂 black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted Thursday at 11:39 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:39 AM (edited) 2 hours ago, Bang on said: Just put this one up early. Put it in my tracker after Saturday's disappointment with the comments - " well handicapped, apprentice jock couldn't get to settle and cost any chance, look for a pro jockey riding". Well today Clifford Lee takes over and it has been 'nibbled' in the betting. 4.55 Ham Sycamore Gap - 8/1 with 365 (who are paying 3 places) .. so have had a good EW bet. May be others later but this one up early. Horse seems a bit mental so I was trying to find some quotes about it. Apparently the Detective Chief Inspector investigating the Sycamore Gap felling is called Rebecca Fenney-Menzies. Seems like a glitch in the matrix or something. Forget that, must have been named because of that! First race was after the event 😂 Edited Thursday at 11:45 AM by yossa6133 black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Thursday at 11:49 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:49 AM # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Beyond Equal 7.5 110.91 92.89 2 Howzak 3.75 109.39 39.97 3 Airshow 10 108.81 100.00 4 Ultramarine 13 106.59 97.29 5 Hurricane Power 8 102.24 20.39 6 Vape 11 99.41 7 Jax Edge 5.5 97.00 8 Endowed 41 87.90 9 Professor Tickle 21 77.74 There was an error in the originally posted ratings. Luckily Airshow still comes out as the best value but the Professor slightly less so! black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted Thursday at 12:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:17 PM 51 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said: I’ll join you in the pub and cat house if this comes in 😂 😀 take a pill with you Villa Chris and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted Thursday at 12:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:26 PM Lots of interest today, some at EW prices. Not sure if I'll be backing everything but these are worth a second look. 3.00 Chep - Dynamite Katie - 5/1 ( has been much bigger). Was rated 31lbs higher when moving to this yard a year ago. Last 2 runs has made the running and then weakened - but has won over the distance, maybe today ? 2.50 Ham - Rain Cap - 7/1 - won this race in 2022, and was runner up last year. richard-westwood and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Thursday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:47 PM 16 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 8.05 Epsom Hodler 26 12/1 (my odds 7/1) Little Boy Blue 24 15/2 (my odds 15/2) Marlay Park 23 7/1 ( my odds 8/1) Paws For Thought 23 10/1 (my odds 8/1) Top rated is the bet and also the biggest edge . 2 points win Hodler . # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Hodler 23 104.57 55.61 2 Little Boy Blue 19 103.79 38.06 3 Miami Thunder 51 103.71 100.00 4 Paws For Thought 15 102.93 23.24 5 Guiteau 5.5 101.89 5.49 6 Miss Information 2 101.51 1.59 7 Marlay Park 10 100.18 0.98 8 Dream Of Mischief 11 98.95 9 Voodoo Ray 34 94.78 10 Miguel 51 87.70 I guess it's all about price here as there's not much in it in terms of the ratings from 1 down to 7. I've done Miami Thunder, Hodler and Little Boy Blue each way. Fav may end up going off odds on. Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted Thursday at 12:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:50 PM 1 minute ago, harry_rag said: # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Hodler 23 104.57 55.61 2 Little Boy Blue 19 103.79 38.06 3 Miami Thunder 51 103.71 100.00 4 Paws For Thought 15 102.93 23.24 5 Guiteau 5.5 101.89 5.49 6 Miss Information 2 101.51 1.59 7 Marlay Park 10 100.18 0.98 8 Dream Of Mischief 11 98.95 9 Voodoo Ray 34 94.78 10 Miguel 51 87.70 I guess it's all about price here as there's not much in it in terms of the ratings from 1 down to 7. I've done Miami Thunder, Hodler and Little Boy Blue each way. Fav may end up going off odds on. We basically have the same top 4 minus 1 and in order too. Tough race. Read something other day stop trying to pick winners and pick value and you’ll come out on top more. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antonio Margarettii Posted Thursday at 12:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:51 PM (edited) Hows it going folks !!! hope youre all doing well !! 4.30 leicester - measured moments 7/1 ( nap ) 3.00 chepstow - the cola kid 15/2 2.20 hamilton - station x 10/1 7.10 killarney - morricone 7/1 2.40 leicester - hackney diamonds 13/2 good luck out there !! Edited Thursday at 12:58 PM by Antonio Margarettii richard-westwood and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Thursday at 01:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:04 PM Taking a closer look at the 4:05 Chepstow now I've fixed the error in the spreadsheet. Happy with Airshow as it's 3rd rated and top for value. Top 4 well clear of the field but Howzak quite short. That leaves Beyond Equal and Ultramarine which score very closely for the value indicator. With the latter being biggest odds and flagged by @richard-westwood it's looking like a more viable choice for a second selection than Prof Tickle. If sorted by minimum rating then Beyond Equal and Airshow are the only ones that everyone rates above average with Ultramarine and Hurricane Power just short and clear of the rest. If sorted by maximum then Endowed is the runt of the litter as the only one that no-one rates above average. Howzak is clear top rated with Beyond Equal, Airshow and Ultramarine well clear of the rest. I'll add Ultramarine win only with Howzak and Beyond Equal looking strong but left alone on the basis of price. # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Beyond Equal 6.5 110.91 71.71 2 Howzak 3.25 109.39 30.86 3 Airshow 9 108.81 80.17 4 Ultramarine 15 106.59 100.00 5 Hurricane Power 8.5 102.24 19.29 6 Vape 10 99.41 7 Jax Edge 6 97.00 8 Endowed 41 87.90 9 Professor Tickle 21 77.74 Latest prices; Ultramarine now flagged as best value. black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Thursday at 01:19 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:19 PM Quick deeper dive on the Chepstow Epsom race. Paws for thought, Hodler and Miami Thunder the only horses unanimously rated as above average when ranked by lowest rating. Hodler and Thunder 2nd and 3rd when ranked by highest rating with Guiteau taking top spot and Miss Information in 4th. No surprise if either of the top two in the betting win it but as I've got nothing to go on barring my half-arsed ratings I'm happy with the 3 at bigger prices. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted Thursday at 01:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:26 PM 6 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Quick deeper dive on the Chepstow race. Paws for thought, Hodler and Miami Thunder the only horses unanimously rated as above average when ranked by lowest rating. Hodler and Thunder 2nd and 3rd when ranked by highest rating with Guiteau taking top spot and Miss Information in 4th. No surprise if either of the top two in the betting win it but as I've got nothing to go on barring my half-arsed ratings I'm happy with the 3 at bigger prices. Epsom* harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted Thursday at 01:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:49 PM They don’t go mad with cash out 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted Thursday at 01:58 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 01:58 PM (edited) @Villa Chris @harry_rag I've rated that 805 for interest Hodler. 12% edge 2.76 avail 22/1 Little boy blue. 13.55%. Edge 2.43 avail 18/1 Dream of mischief 11%. Edge 1.23 avail 11/1 Miss inform tissue 8.6 avail 2.0 poor Guteau. Tissue 7.6. Avail 6.0 poor Massive edges on hodler and little boy blue so Ew bets ....not sure whether to include dream .....although all 3 qualify We must be getting it right cos we are getting roughly the same horses Edited Thursday at 02:04 PM by richard-westwood harry_rag, Villa Chris and LEE-GRAYS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antonio Margarettii Posted Thursday at 02:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:24 PM (edited) 3.35 chepstow - valkyrian 4/1 Edited Thursday at 02:28 PM by Antonio Margarettii Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antonio Margarettii Posted Thursday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:51 PM 3.55 hamilton - benacre 6/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Thursday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:52 PM 18 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 6.10 Worcester Kauto The King 27 7/1 ( my odds 4/1) Lermoos Legend 27 9/2 ( my odds 4/1 Theonlywayiswessex 23 5/2 ( my odds 5/1 I was going to have 1 point each on Kauto and Lermoos as they are both top rated and they were both 7/1 just a couple of hours ago but Lermoos has been backed into 9/2 so that just leaves Kauto . 2 points win . # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Kauto The King (FR) 10 106.41 100.00 2 Cawthorne Banker (IRE) 6 101.91 17.85 3 Neigh Botha (IRE) 5 104.38 34.15 4 Theonlywayiswessex (FR) 4.5 98.18 5 Lermoos Legend 5 99.18 6 Mix Of Clover 13 97.72 7 Herecomeshogan (IRE) 10 92.22 Might as well try my hand at a jumps race! The top 3 are the top 3 however you slice this one, with Kauto the best value. Could make a case for the e/w at 8s to 3 places but I'll go win only at a point longer and cover the 3 in forecasts. Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antonio Margarettii Posted Thursday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:58 PM (edited) 4.05 chepstow - vape 10/1 (ill also have a reverse forecast with airshow ) Edited Thursday at 03:01 PM by Antonio Margarettii harry_rag, yossa6133 and Bronxie 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted Thursday at 03:08 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 03:08 PM (edited) 20 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 405 chep Just the one qualifier ULTRAMARINE ....11.88% EDGE 1.66 14/1 1PT EW Absolutely crap start ....was 8 lengths off the pace and has finished 4th somehow ....crap ride ....too much to do ....much better than that Edited Thursday at 03:09 PM by richard-westwood harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antonio Margarettii Posted Thursday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:10 PM (edited) very risky but i think malinheadsearovers 20/1 might just hit the frame in the 4.15 leicester Edited Thursday at 03:11 PM by Antonio Margarettii Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Thursday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:35 PM 13 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Absolutely crap start ....was 8 lengths off the pace and has finished 4th somehow ....crap ride ....too much to do ....much better than that I'll just take solace in the decision to call the top two rated "too short" with them finishing 2nd and 3rd. I'd rather lose taking a tilt at a decent price than backing a more obvious short priced selection. richard-westwood and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antonio Margarettii Posted Thursday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:46 PM 4.55 hamilton - purple gown 12/1 (cant stop now 10/1 could easily run into a place) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted Thursday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:34 PM 4 hours ago, Bang on said: Lots of interest today, some at EW prices. Not sure if I'll be backing everything but these are worth a second look. 3.00 Chep - Dynamite Katie - 5/1 ( has been much bigger). Was rated 31lbs higher when moving to this yard a year ago. Last 2 runs has made the running and then weakened - but has won over the distance, maybe today ? 2.50 Ham - Rain Cap - 7/1 - won this race in 2022, and was runner up last year. Dynamite Katie - 2nd Rain Cap - lost - never really got involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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