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Euro 2024 Predictions 23rd - 26th June


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Early suggestion of some shenanigans in the Romania match. A draw sends both teams through and 0-0 is about 4 to 1 which is obviously a very low price and a bit of a red flag as far as goal betting goes. On the other hand, are the conspiracy theories wide of the mark and therefore could there be some value in going against the 0-0 draw.

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I've backed 0-0 on the exchanges at 4.8 - if it's going to be a draw I'd rather be on 0-0 than 1-1 as if either team does get ahead that's good for them and there's no reason to let the other side back into it. 2-2 and 3-3 are also pretty unlikely scores in the circumstances so if you think it's going to be a draw, 0-0 is the market to bet on.

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Some games just best left alone I think, the draw has been around 11/10 since I first saw the game priced up, it’s short because of how mutually convenient it is. I can’t see any reason for there to be value about betting on the more obvious outcomes in a game like this. The RP tip was “draw” in the half with most goals market. I could see the case for it (a bit better price than the straight draw) but it didn’t tempt me away from the “no bet” fence.

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29 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Some games just best left alone I think, the draw has been around 11/10 since I first saw the game priced up, it’s short because of how mutually convenient it is. I can’t see any reason for there to be value about betting on the more obvious outcomes in a game like this. The RP tip was “draw” in the half with most goals market. I could see the case for it (a bit better price than the straight draw) but it didn’t tempt me away from the “no bet” fence.

We'll agree to disagree there then. Games like this sometimes do follow the script - France v Sweden a few tournaments back springs to mind - and the fact the odds are short, relatively speaking, puts people off but when a draw sends both teams through then why strain for a result and in that situation actually the draw odds are big.

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I'm on the 0-0 draw between Slovakia and Romania, but I'll also back the draw at half time and full time at 3.50 and I'll take cover of a sort by backing Slovakia to win 1-0 at 10.00 and both bets are with MGM. On the exchanges, I'm backing Ukraine to qualify at 2.43 which looks the value in that market.

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Should have backed 1-1 also with hindsight. Was unlucky with the Ukraine bet - they were much the better side but couldn't score against Belgium. For this evening, I'm backing Portugal to be winning at half time and full time at 2.50 with MGM - they should be far too strong for Georgia. 

Edited by Torque
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20 hours ago, Labrador said:

Despite last night's tepid show from the Serbs I'm tempted into the bookings market again as Istvan Kovacs of Romania takes charge of Czech Republic v Turkey this evening. Kovacs did the business in the Serbia/Slovenia clash last week, and his stats are very encouraging if things get tasty. The Czechs have to win, and that would mean the Turks not achieving a top 2 finish in the group - so presumably they will be very keen to avoid defeat.

I have taken over 5.5 match cards at 6/5 (Coral).

 

Make up of 135 with several other cards for players not on the pitch or dished out after the final whistle during the melee. Definitely more exciting than watching England, although sadly for bookings bets I don't think we shall be seeing Mr Kovacs again.

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10 minutes ago, Labrador said:

 

Make up of 135 with several other cards for players not on the pitch or dished out after the final whistle during the melee. Definitely more exciting than watching England, although sadly for bookings bets I don't think we shall be seeing Mr Kovacs again.

I wasn’t quite persuaded by the straight bookings line pre-game but, luckily, I decided to build a BB around team cards and total goals so managed to end the group stage on a winning note. Glad to see the back of it generally from a punting perspective!

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