Wells Fargo

[tonythepaint]

YTD -£10 

This week I'm backing W.Clark

16/1 with Speadex (Ew)

If I have a reasonable year I think I'll have a go on the spread betting market.

Harry's got me interested.

[MinellaWorksop]

Best of luck Tony,

Preferably great minds think alike as the player I like the look of this week is:

Wyndham Clark 14/1 Hills

[harry_rag]

I've had a nibble for interest. 15/1 with Lads (using a boost from 14/1) and 1/6 the odds to 10 places.

[philipwalsh19]

Hovland has had a bang average 2024 so far, but my model reckons he's the only one in the top 10 that's value. His stats (a blend of 2023 & 2024) are off the charts in key areas like SG approach, Irons from 175 yards upwards, SG off the tee, Total Driving etc. So worth the gamble that the strong course fit will get the best from him.

My model ended up ranking positions 2 to 5 fully in-line with the betting odds (2. Schauffele, 3. Clark, 4. Cantlay, 5. Homa).

Jaeger looks the best bet outside the top 10.

Rank outsider: I was on Kevin Tway top 40 last week at the Byron Nelson (...he was 81st in the odds but the model rated him as 6th best & he finished 9th). I'm on him again this week @ 225/1 e/w (10 places).

 

[harry_rag]

I've had an e/w bet on Homa for FRL at 28/1 and played the resulting freebie on Jaeger e/w at 55/1 

Here's the top of the market for the spreads on finishing positions this week. Essentially you sell where you fancy a player to do better than his quote or buy if you think he'll do worse (which feels contrary to many spread betting markets in terms of being the opposite way round).

#

You could use this as a yardstick to compare how a player is priced in the fixed odds markets, e.g. if you're trying to decide between two 100/1 shots see if one of them is rated much better to the other on the spreads. For this week let's go with a 1 point paper trade of 5 players mentioned in this thread and see what the return would have been.

Sell Clark at 21

Sell Homa at 24

Sell Hovland at 28

Sell Jaeger at 31

Sell Tway at 42

 

[tonythepaint]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I've had an e/w bet on Homa for FRL at 28/1 and played the resulting freebie on Jaeger e/w at 55/1 

Here's the top of the market for the spreads on finishing positions this week. Essentially you sell where you fancy a player to do better than his quote or buy if you think he'll do worse (which feels contrary to many spread betting markets in terms of being the opposite way round).

#

You could use this as a yardstick to compare how a player is priced in the fixed odds markets, e.g. if you're trying to decide between two 100/1 shots see if one of them is rated much better to the other on the spreads. For this week let's go with a 1 point paper trade of 5 players mentioned in this thread and see what the return would have been.

Sell Clark at 21

Sell Homa at 24

Sell Hovland at 28

Sell Jaeger at 31

Sell Tway at 42

 

Hello Harry, you'll be glad to hear that I've activated the spread betting side with my account with Speadex. Don't know what I'll do yet.

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, tonythepaint said:

Hello Harry, you'll be glad to hear that I've activated the spread betting side with my account with Speadex. Don't know what I'll do yet.

Tread carefully at first, make sure you understand the volatility of the market you bet on and stake accordingly. Any questions, give me a shout.

There's an info icon next to every price and their training area may be worth a look.

It's not rocket science and nothing to be scared off, just understand the maximum loss/profit when deciding your stake.

[tonythepaint]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Tread carefully at first, make sure you understand the volatility of the market you bet on and stake accordingly. Any questions, give me a shout.

There's an info icon next to every price and their training area may be worth a look.

It's not rocket science and nothing to be scared off, just understand the maximum loss/profit when deciding your stake.

Don't worry Harry, just looking around the site and when I do bet it will be very small stakes.

[fd1972uk]

Went with Schauffele and hovland for me, took hovland over cantlay.

1st round leaders hoge and young.

Took a few small lucky dips, actually ended up half decent bets. Speith, Fleetwood, burns and Bradley.

Dad has went clark and harman.

Edited May 10 by fd1972uk

[tonythepaint]

First spread bet Harry.

Bought W.Clark at 5.9 on the tournament winner 100 index.

Win-£47.05

Liability £2.95

[Torque]

On 5/8/2024 at 9:04 PM, fd1972uk said:

Went with Schauffele and hovland for me, took hovland over cantlay.

1st round leaders hoge and young.

Took a few small lucky dips, actually ended up half decent bets. Speith, Fleetwood, burns and Bradley.

Dad has went clark and harman.

Schauffele looking good and I'll be on him with a round to go. He's 2.02 on the exchanges - once commission is accounted for - and that looks good to me with a one shot lead. I don't think there's a thread for the Myrtle Beach tournament - apologies if I've missed it - so I'll put my pick here and that's Gotterup. Four shots clear and available at 1.73 - again that's on the exchanges and the price quoted is what it would be if there were no commission to pay. Win or lose, yes please - that's a value price.

[harry_rag]

On 5/8/2024 at 4:21 PM, harry_rag said:

For this week let's go with a 1 point paper trade of 5 players mentioned in this thread and see what the return would have been.

Sell Clark at 21 Made up at 49 for a 28 point loss

Sell Homa at 24 - 8.5 and +15.5 points

Sell Hovland at 28 - 26 and +2 points

Sell Jaeger at 31 - 22 and +9 points

Sell Tway at 42 - 44.5 and -2.5 points

The five fancies combined for a 4 point loss, most of the damage being done by Clark falling so far short. 3 of the players beat their quote. In terms of this market I'd say there's some merit in the notion of "buy low and sell high". I wouldn't choose to play more favoured players like Clark in this market because there's more downside than up. It's probably a better market for siding with less fancied players.

[philipwalsh19]

On 5/8/2024 at 10:00 AM, philipwalsh19 said:

Hovland has had a bang average 2024 so far, but my model reckons he's the only one in the top 10 that's value. His stats (a blend of 2023 & 2024) are off the charts in key areas like SG approach, Irons from 175 yards upwards, SG off the tee, Total Driving etc. So worth the gamble that the strong course fit will get the best from him.

My model ended up ranking positions 2 to 5 fully in-line with the betting odds (2. Schauffele, 3. Clark, 4. Cantlay, 5. Homa).

Jaeger looks the best bet outside the top 10.

Rank outsider: I was on Kevin Tway top 40 last week at the Byron Nelson (...he was 81st in the odds but the model rated him as 6th best & he finished 9th). I'm on him again this week @ 225/1 e/w (10 places).

 

 

 

2 of my 3 picks outperformed their odds, but none of them earned me any money this week.

 

Hovland (Odds: 11th, Finishing Position: 24th)

Jaeger (Odds: 25th, Finishing Position: 21st)

Tway (Odds: 66th, Finishing Position: 43rd)

[Torque]

On 5/12/2024 at 1:00 AM, Torque said:

Schauffele looking good and I'll be on him with a round to go. He's 2.02 on the exchanges - once commission is accounted for - and that looks good to me with a one shot lead. I don't think there's a thread for the Myrtle Beach tournament - apologies if I've missed it - so I'll put my pick here and that's Gotterup. Four shots clear and available at 1.73 - again that's on the exchanges and the price quoted is what it would be if there were no commission to pay. Win or lose, yes please - that's a value price.

Schauffele was looking good two shots clear at -13 under, then McIlroy turned on the burners and ran away with it. Gotterup was a comfortable enough winner after a slow start.