Zilzalian Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Top rated on todays going is UNDER THE TWILIGHT in the 3.50 based on its 3rd at Newbury last May over todays distance. It is rated second overall to the favourite Tiriac. Available at 12/1 (4 places). A little bonus in speed figures is it is very easy to produce a list/become aware of bad/poor horses which are a very good measure of the strength of a race especially if the said horse is fav or second fav. Great for deciding what stake to invest if you have one at a decent price. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 4 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Haven't had a penny on any of them yet ! No reason if you get four in a day not to pop them on to a lucky 15 to small stakes, or even a patent if three for that matter. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 15 Author Share Posted April 15 6 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: No reason if you get four in a day not to pop them on to a lucky 15 to small stakes, or even a patent if three for that matter. I might start having a few small bets if I can get decent prices with the bookies or on Betfair (Under The Twilight returned 18.5 today) Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 16 Author Share Posted April 16 Top rated today is Bedford Flyer but that was achieved on the AW so I'll give that one a miss. Best on todays going is Spring Bloom in the 1.50. It achieved the top rating over todays distance. It is 6th top rated overall but a lot of those above it achieved their ratings on the AW. It is available at 12/1 4 places so I'll go mad and have £1 each way (it's always good to have some skin in the game). In the 3.30 Boiling Point is top rated on todays going and 2nd top rated overall. £2 win with Ladbrokes at 17/20. In the 5.15 Rating is top rated on good and 2nd overall. £2 with Ladbrokes at 15/2. yossa6133, LEE-GRAYS and In Play Race Reader 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 A poor day yesterday. Todays top rated is ORAZIO in the 1.50. That was on soft going, it has never run on good going before so I will discount it. In the same race SIGNIFICANTLY is joint 2nd top rated and also top rated on good going. I have had £1 EW (5 places) at 11/1 with Ladbrokes. In the 4.45 I have BOLSENA top rated both overall and on todays going. Best price is 11/2 but with a bookie I can't bet with so I've had £2 win at BSP. In the 3.00 I have THE FOXES and REGAL REALITY joint top rated on both counts. REGAL REALITY is available at higher odds so I will have £2 win at 12/1 with BETMGM. yossa6133, richard-westwood, LEE-GRAYS and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 A win for Bolsena yesterday at 8.00 BSP Current profit 1.86 points Top rated today (both in total and on the going) is Painite in the 4.10 at Newmarket. It is available at 11/1, I have had a win bet on the exchanges. Also top rated on both is Shouldvbeenaring in the 3.00. I have had an EW bet with Ladbrokes at 16/5 (4 places). There are 2 top rated on both at Ripon (heavy going). In the 4.17 I've backed Illusionist EW at 16/5 with Ladbrokes (4 places). In the 4.52 I've gone for Flying Finn at 27/20 with BETMGM. black rabbit and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: A win for Bolsena yesterday at 8.00 BSP Current profit 1.86 points Top rated today (both in total and on the going) is Painite in the 4.10 at Newmarket. It is available at 11/1, I have had a win bet on the exchanges. Also top rated on both is Shouldvbeenaring in the 3.00. I have had an EW bet with Ladbrokes at 16/5 (4 places). There are 2 top rated on both at Ripon (heavy going). In the 4.17 I've backed Illusionist EW at 16/5 with Ladbrokes (4 places). In the 4.52 I've gone for Flying Finn at 27/20 with BETMGM. I too have Painite top rated but the numbers are restricted due to the lack of amount of runs involved i like the look of looking for queen so its a (Rfc around 85/1) race for me. The argument for the fav is definitely weak. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 4 hours ago, Zilzalian said: I too have Painite top rated but the numbers are restricted due to the lack of amount of runs involved i like the look of looking for queen so its a (Rfc around 85/1) race for me. The argument for the fav is definitely weak. @MCLARKE Given the amount of racing would you agree with me that i think there is a good case for leaving races like this well alone due to the limited data given the amount of runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 1 hour ago, Zilzalian said: Given the amount of racing would you agree with me that i think there is a good case for leaving races like this well alone due to the limited data given the amount of runs? You are probably right. My selections have been very simplistic so far whilst I am building up my data from previous years. I have 4 years of data now, I need 2 more then I can analyse 5 years of data and then test it on 2023. Hopefully this will highlight such issues as this race with limited data. One initial conclusion I came to having had a quick look at 1 years data is that you should ignore the next run and concentrate on the 2nd and 3rd run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: You are probably right. My selections have been very simplistic so far whilst I am building up my data from previous years. I have 4 years of data now, I need 2 more then I can analyse 5 years of data and then test it on 2023. Hopefully this will highlight such issues as this race with limited data. One initial conclusion I came to having had a quick look at 1 years data is that you should ignore the next run and concentrate on the 2nd and 3rd run. Treat 2yo races differently is my advice to you because you can't (trainers) mess 2yo's about too much and they are trying to find out their level for the future. At pattern level i would suggest that 2yo speed figures are the most accurate. One of the best tools is deciding whether the rating you assign to a horse is above or below the average. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 19 Author Share Posted April 19 A small loss yesterday with a 27/20 winner, a 16/5 2nd and 2 losers Current profit 1.07 points Top rated today is VADREAM in the 5.45 at Bath but that was on heavy going compared to good In the same race I'll have a tentative bet (it is the 100/1 outsider !) on the 2nd top rated GLAMOROUS BREEZE who obtained the rating on good to firm over todays distance last July. I can't get the 100/1 so I'll have the bet at BSP. black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 20 Author Share Posted April 20 Current profit 0.07 points Top rated today is AL QAREEM in the 1.30 at Newbury based on last Septembers win at Chester in a listed contest. That was on todays going. Slight increase in class so odds of 13/2 at Ladbrokes seems reasonable. In Play Race Reader 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 20 Author Share Posted April 20 Also top rated today both in total and on todays going are :- Brighton 5.15 DULCET SPIRIT 11/1 - BSP Brighton 7.50 LETTER OF THE LAW 14/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places) Nottingham 5.25 STALLONE 12/1 - BSP Thirsk 6.05 COLD STARE 17/2 - BSP LEE-GRAYS and In Play Race Reader 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 20 Author Share Posted April 20 Top rated in the 2.05 at Newbury REGAL JUBILEE 9/2 - BSP In Play Race Reader 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 20 Author Share Posted April 20 Just for a bit of interest on the TV races Newbury 2.40 BALLYMOUNT BOY 6/1 - Ladbrokes Newbury 3.15 REVICH 45/1 - Ladbrokes EW (5 places) Bronxie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 7 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Also top rated today both in total and on todays going are :- Brighton 5.15 DULCET SPIRIT 11/1 - BSP Brighton 7.50 LETTER OF THE LAW 14/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places) Nottingham 5.25 STALLONE 12/1 - BSP Thirsk 6.05 COLD STARE 17/2 - BSP Some lovely picks here mate. Dulcet no good but two lovely places and a nice winner with Cold Stare. If you went 1pt e/w on all selections you would have been +11.85pts 👏🏼 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 20 Author Share Posted April 20 Ta, had some decent runs for my money and the BSP for Cold Stare was 11.80 so a reasonable profit for the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 A winner at 11.80 and a 2nd at 14/1 + 5 losers yesterday Current profit 5.55 points Top rated today (again) is BLIND BEGGAR in the 6.45 at Musselburgh. Raised 3lb for beating Silky Wilkie by a head 14 days ago on heavy. No rating on good to soft but top rating achieved on soft. Available at 25/1 with Ladbrokes compared to 7/2 for Silky Wilkie. I've had a bet EW (4 places). Also today top rated both in total and on good to soft Musselburgh 3.45 GISELLES IZZY 30/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places) Musselburgh 5.45 ICE MAX 5/2 - BSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeMale Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 10 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: A winner at 11.80 and a 2nd at 14/1 + 5 losers yesterday Current profit 5.55 points Top rated today (again) is BLIND BEGGAR in the 6.45 at Musselburgh. Raised 3lb for beating Silky Wilkie by a head 14 days ago on heavy. No rating on good to soft but top rating achieved on soft. Available at 25/1 with Ladbrokes compared to 7/2 for Silky Wilkie. I've had a bet EW (4 places). Also today top rated both in total and on good to soft Musselburgh 3.45 GISELLES IZZY 30/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places) Musselburgh 5.45 ICE MAX 5/2 - BSP Not going to say i understand at all how you guys work all these speed figures out, most of it goes right over my head, but i do enjoy reading all your thoughts about it all. Just a little question on Giselles Izzy. Are you saying this horse has the fasted speed figure based on one run over 5f on the aw over two years ago? I thought it would have had to have raced more than one race over a distance for you to get a figure, or is it just based on what speed it gets to over any distance, hence 6f or 7f, and if it runs to those figures in a 5f race, it should win? I'm probably being thick i know, but was just interested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 2 minutes ago, LeMale said: Not going to say i understand at all how you guys work all these speed figures out, most of it goes right over my head, but i do enjoy reading all your thoughts about it all. Just a little question on Giselles Izzy. Are you saying this horse has the fasted speed figure based on one run over 5f on the aw over two years ago? I thought it would have had to have raced more than one race over a distance for you to get a figure, or is it just based on what speed it gets to over any distance, hence 6f or 7f, and if it runs to those figures in a 5f race, it should win? I'm probably being thick i know, but was just interested. I don't profess to be an expert on speed figures, I am learning as I go along. Feel free to ask any questions you thing of, it will probably help me to look at aspects I haven't considered. At the moment I am only using data for the current season and the previous season and I am limiting my comparison to the going, I am not taking the distance into account, that will be the next stage. Giselles Izzy achieved its top rating on GF at Carlisle over 6 furlongs. Its best rating on GS was last June when it won a 15 runner handicap over 6 furlongs. All of its last 30 runs have been over 6 or 7 furlongs so perhaps the fact it was over 5 today explains the 28/1 odds. I'm not sure which has the biggest impact on performance, going or distance. Hopefully my analysis will point me in the right direction. Previous work I've done indicates that the impact is overstated, we will see. LeMale 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeMale Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 34 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I don't profess to be an expert on speed figures, I am learning as I go along. Feel free to ask any questions you thing of, it will probably help me to look at aspects I haven't considered. At the moment I am only using data for the current season and the previous season and I am limiting my comparison to the going, I am not taking the distance into account, that will be the next stage. Giselles Izzy achieved its top rating on GF at Carlisle over 6 furlongs. Its best rating on GS was last June when it won a 15 runner handicap over 6 furlongs. All of its last 30 runs have been over 6 or 7 furlongs so perhaps the fact it was over 5 today explains the 28/1 odds. I'm not sure which has the biggest impact on performance, going or distance. Hopefully my analysis will point me in the right direction. Previous work I've done indicates that the impact is overstated, we will see. Oh i doubt there will be anything i would/could contribute to help you along your path, but you've given me a good chuckle that you thought i could. It just goes to show what i know, i assumed (wrongly) that any speed rating on a horse would have to be at the distance it was racing at, first and foremost. Thinking as i type and have just had a winner in the 515, (yippee) i use an example of the poor horses that are not quite sprinters, 5/6f, and can't last a mile, but excel over 7f and as far as i know, there are no classic's or decent races over that distance. (sorry if i'm wrong on that) To me, taking speed figures from 6f races and 8f races when their best distance is 7f, just seems strange. What i've just said is just an example of course and not explained very well, but i hope you get what i'm getting at? Seems to be coming along anyway and you've already had a few winners from it, just think how good it will be when you have all your facts and figures input into it...will be a gold mine!!! yossa6133 and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 You could well be right, distance could be a key factor. It may well be that I only use a speed figure if it was produced over the same distance and going. I've thought I've discovered many gold mines over the years but they ultimately only produced a few small nuggets. LeMale 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 The distance angle depends on the age of a horse. EG this time of year most of last years 2yo horses are stepping up in distance, but lets say you have a moderate 5 year old that has never won over the distance that is stepping up in trip it is usually a desperate attempt by the trainer to try something new, we see this at all levels including group races. With speed figures you basically have 2 choices 1. Use the pure figure or 2. Try to chip away using a list of criteria that you have to decide which one to back in a tight handicap. Big problem i have identified is that you can end up with too many variables thus end up throwing the baby out with the bath water. Think of all the variables/considerations you can come up with and list them to see what i mean and then post them on here. Others will quickly point out which ones you missed off your list. LeMale and Bronxie 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 Indeed, it is best to stick to the KISS system, I never use more than 5 criteria in any system that I use I did find today's selection of Giselles Izzy strange, 30 races over 6 or 7 furlongs with reasonable success but today dropped to 5 furlongs, maybe trying to get the handicap mark down Zilzalian and LeMale 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 ICE MAX won yesterday + 2 losers for a loss of 0.01 points on the day Current profit 5.54 points Top rated horse today is Lord Protector in the 2.52 at Pontefract. However that was on good going compared to todays soft / heavy so not a bet for me. 2nd top rated in that race is TOSHIZOU and it is rated top on both soft going and heavy going. Only won once in his career and that was over 3 years ago in Ireland but I'll have a bet at 7/1 with BV. Top rated in total and on the going are Pontefract 3.22 ON THE RIVER 3/1 - BV Windsor 5.50 CASTLE IN THE SAND 15/8 - BSP Windsor 6.20 LUSAKA 25/1 - Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 23 Author Share Posted April 23 ON THE RIVER won yesteday at 3/1 + 3 losers for a breakeven day. Current profit 5.54 points. Top rated today is Crystal Delight but that was achieved on the AW. 2nd top rated in that race is DUAL IDENTITY and it is top rated on todays good going. Available at 6/1, I'll have a bet at BSP. Top rated in total and on the going are Epsom 3.55 WYNTER WILDES 15/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places) Epsom 4.30 MIDAIR 5/4 - BSP Epsom 5.05 MR BALOO 10/3 - BSP Yarmouth 2.00 READY OR NOT 8/1 - BETMGM Yarmouth 4.20 SPANISH MANE 80/1 - BETMGM EW (4 places) Yarmouth 5.25 BATCHELOR BOY 5/1 - BSP yossa6133, In Play Race Reader and richard-westwood 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: ON THE RIVER won yesteday at 3/1 + 3 losers for a breakeven day. Current profit 5.54 points. Top rated today is Crystal Delight but that was achieved on the AW. 2nd top rated in that race is DUAL IDENTITY and it is top rated on todays good going. Available at 6/1, I'll have a bet at BSP. Top rated in total and on the going are Epsom 3.55 WYNTER WILDES 15/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places) Epsom 4.30 MIDAIR 5/4 - BSP Epsom 5.05 MR BALOO 10/3 - BSP Yarmouth 2.00 READY OR NOT 8/1 - BETMGM Yarmouth 4.20 SPANISH MANE 80/1 - BETMGM EW (4 places) Yarmouth 5.25 BATCHELOR BOY 5/1 - BSP I have Vaynor top rated in this 355 Epsom. Might try a little Rfc at those prices. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 24 Author Share Posted April 24 BATCHELOR BOY won yesterday at 4.80 + 6 losers Current profit 3.26 points Top rated today is VINCE L'AMOUR in the 3.17 at Catterick. I have it 15 lengths ahead of the rest so looks a worthy favourite even at the skimpy odds of 8/13 and a 6lb penalty. Top rated in total and on the going are Catterick 2.12 MURBIH 13/2 Catterick 3.47 SOCIOLIGIST 16/1 All 3 bets at BSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 VINCE L'AMOUR won yesterday at BSP 1.62 + 2 losers Current profit 1.62 points Top rated today is DARE TO HOPE in the 2.45 at Beverley. However the rating was achieved on the all weather and the top 4 are all within 1 length of each other. SOUL SEEKER is one of these and is available at odds of 25/1 so I'll have a bet at BSP. Top rated in total and on the going are Beverley 2.10 INDICATION EMBER 11/2 - BETMGM Beverley 3.20 DAMBUSTER 11/8 - BSP Beverley 4.30 SHALADAR 17/2 - BSP yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 13 hours ago, MCLARKE said: VINCE L'AMOUR won yesterday at BSP 1.62 + 2 losers Current profit 1.62 points Top rated today is DARE TO HOPE in the 2.45 at Beverley. However the rating was achieved on the all weather and the top 4 are all within 1 length of each other. SOUL SEEKER is one of these and is available at odds of 25/1 so I'll have a bet at BSP. Top rated in total and on the going are Beverley 2.10 INDICATION EMBER 11/2 - BETMGM Beverley 3.20 DAMBUSTER 11/8 - BSP Beverley 4.30 SHALADAR 17/2 - BSP This all weather v turf rating is going to drive you mad Micheal. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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