Racing chat- Sunday 25th February

[Zilzalian]

Looking forward to the flat and the effects of the draw and going through all my results for 40 odd years. I have heard and read so much tosh over the years about "the Draw" I have concluded it puts you off more winners than losers when the "noise" suggest the draw is against "it".

I have 2 examples in 2 days I backed Al Muzn at 14/1 at Meydan against the advice of the "noise" it won, the same thing today at Ryadh I backed Anaf at 12/1 also against the advice of the draw. I had a tenner on both horses and if i had listened to "the experts" i would have missed out on £280 quid. That's the sort of stuff that affects your bottom line in betting so the point i am making is- If you know your horses go with your judgment and let no one and nothing put you off betting on it.

[White Feather]

 Battle It Out 14:25 Naas -  15/2 bet 365 - 3 places

Good Time Jonny 15:55 Naas -  12/1 bet 365 - 5 places

2 x singles - each way double

[MCLARKE]

19 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Looking forward to the flat and the effects of the draw and going through all my results for 40 odd years. I have heard and read so much tosh over the years about "the Draw" I have concluded it puts you off more winners than losers when the "noise" suggest the draw is against "it".

I have 2 examples in 2 days I backed Al Muzn at 14/1 at Meydan against the advice of the "noise" it won, the same thing today at Ryadh I backed Anaf at 12/1 also against the advice of the draw. I had a tenner on both horses and if i had listened to "the experts" i would have missed out on £280 quid. That's the sort of stuff that affects your bottom line in betting so the point i am making is- If you know your horses go with your judgment and let no one and nothing put you off betting on it.

I think you are right, there is so much talk about the draw that the "good" draws are often overbet and the value lies with those draws that are considered "bad". It is the main criteria in my AW selections, which are proving very profitable. Draws 1 to 5 have a strike rate of 12% whereas those drawn higher have a strike rate of 9%, this indicates that lower drawn horses have a better chance. However the higher drawn horses show a profit whereas those drawn lower show a loss.

[MGC]

155 N Tounsivator 11/4 Mullins won this race last 3 years

435 N Wingmen 1/1 Elliott won last 4.

[black rabbit]

20 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Looking forward to the flat and the effects of the draw and going through all my results for 40 odd years. I have heard and read so much tosh over the years about "the Draw" I have concluded it puts you off more winners than losers when the "noise" suggest the draw is against "it".

I have 2 examples in 2 days I backed Al Muzn at 14/1 at Meydan against the advice of the "noise" it won, the same thing today at Ryadh I backed Anaf at 12/1 also against the advice of the draw. I had a tenner on both horses and if i had listened to "the experts" i would have missed out on £280 quid. That's the sort of stuff that affects your bottom line in betting so the point i am making is- If you know your horses go with your judgment and let no one and nothing put you off betting on it.

"it puts you off more winners than losers"     { ABSOLUTELY } 👍

[azzybear]

inasfree lad 2.10

[yossa6133]

Abingworth 3:40 Hereford (15/8). Should have won last time at Ludlow but made too many mistakes, got a bit ragged and mugged close home. Clearly got an engine though and should win this if not making the same kind of mistakes. Samtara has dropped to a good mark and has been backed but is not easy to win with.

2pts win 15/8.

 

Didn't make the mistakes but still didn't win, jockey somehow managed to get boxed in in a 5 runner race which didn't help 

 

P/L: -1.9pts.

Edited February 25 by yossa6133

[White Feather]

Encipitator 16/1 bet 365

15:55 Naas

[azzybear]

Celtic sea 4.40