harry_rag Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Here we go with the games that determine who gets a shot at Superbowl glory. As you'll have gathered I'm rather focused on one area of specialism (TD scorers) and don't have much feel for things at team/game level so your words of wisdom will be welcome as always. MinellaWorksop and fd1972uk 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tschurchy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 @harry_ragWho do you fancy for TDs? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, tschurchy said: @harry_ragWho do you fancy for TDs? Not taken a first look yet but will get back to you (I don't really firm up an opinion till I have spread prices to compare to fixed odds). Be interested to see if McCaffrey is underrated again as he was in the brace and handicap markets this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 21 hours ago, tschurchy said: @harry_ragWho do you fancy for TDs? First (very brief) look based on projections on Fantasy Pros. (No spread prices yet, which is my primary input and not taken a look at player stats, so certainly not betting yet.) 3 prices that look best would be Montgomery at 2.7 (by some way) and then 3.6 Andrews and 2.5 Gibbs. Do any of you guys use a site that gives player projections? I could really do with one that goes to 2 decimal points rather than one. 0.5 of a touchdown could be as low as 0.45 rounded up or 0.55 rounded down which makes a huge difference for player prices in an individual game. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Jeez I just use my finger shut my eyes and touch the screen. Applaud your dedication to trying to find the dollar, lol. I'll probably go on a bet builder with mb guarantee, and also see what's on any offers on other sites, got ladbrokes offer so that'll give off a freebie. Got a few free bets and also not forgetting epic odds. Will be leaning towards the two favs, do fancy Andrews, although Likely the other TE wouldn't rule out. Just got a little feeling on one of their big guys. If ladbrokes/coral offer any decent boosts may elect to go there. As for 49ers, can't stray from mccaffrey really, so maybe that's where wh epic boost comes in. MinellaWorksop and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 @harry_rag I may have misunderstood, though in the screenshot below of my Fantasy team from about 3 weeks ago my players have projected scores to two decimal points. Hope this helps somewhat. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Thanks @MinellaWorksop but it's the breakdown I need rather than the total Fantasy points. See this example from Fantasy Pros which shows various stats and the aggregate Fantasy points (but only to 1 decimal point). I could do with TD projections with the extra decimal point. I guess I'll have to get my googling boots on for other similar sites but just wondered if anyone already looked at one. With the separate numbers for rush/rec it's even worst; depending on rounding Pacheco's projection could be anywhere between 0.4 and 0.5 which would translate to "fair" odds of anywhere between around 2/1 or 6/4. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 21 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Thanks @MinellaWorksop but it's the breakdown I need rather than the total Fantasy points. See this example from Fantasy Pros which shows various stats and the aggregate Fantasy points (but only to 1 decimal point). I could do with TD projections with the extra decimal point. I guess I'll have to get my googling boots on for other similar sites but just wondered if anyone already looked at one. With the separate numbers for rush/rec it's even worst; depending on rounding Pacheco's projection could be anywhere between 0.4 and 0.5 which would translate to "fair" odds of anywhere between around 2/1 or 6/4. Ah yes, I see where you are coming from now mate. Fully agree that two decimal points would be a much better, accurate figure. And from a nerdy point of view, it just looks so much more professional and sophisticated to have it to two decimal points anyway lol. I wish you good luck in your quest to find the required stats Harry. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Spread prices are up for the first game now so here's my table (this is more detailed than what I usually do when there are loads of games to look at). I'll be looking at each players' stats before I place any bets. That shows the spread price (buy, sell and midpoint), fair odds based on that and back odds with 10% margin added, best odds from Oddschecker, the edge where best odds are bigger than the fair odds and bet decision (which is set to "yes" where the edge is at least 2%). The last 2 columns are the projection implied by the spread prices followed by the projection from Fantasy Pros. Rice is the best looking bet based on the above but the spreads rate him much higher than Fantasy Pros so it need a look at the stats. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 My first bet is on a player not even in the above table (Spreadex haven't bothered to quote him and his projection was too low on Fantasy Pros) but I won on him last weekend. Likely to score a TD at 4/1 with PP Scored in 5 of his last 6 games including a brace. Andrews might be back which could impact his productivity but this is encouraging enough to take the price: "Andrews has been out since suffering what was then believed to be a season-ending ankle injury in Week 11. His return against the Chiefs would give the Ravens a two-headed tight end monster with the emergence of Isaiah Likely who has flourished in a starting role." MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Gubbed on 888, meh. Liked that for my nfl, but hey ho. Got a bit of money in it so I'll split with other sites. Use my last 2 free bets and have a few bets on it including superbowl winners and grand national, lol. So maybe future winnings. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Bloody idiot I am, didn't look at an expiry date of one of the 888 bets and missed it, meh. Still got a few to use though and notice some boosts on ladbrokes and coral. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Done two bet builders, one a 25% boost with Bet365 and the other a 50% boost with Hills Bet365 one first, three legs to this one as follows: Detroit Lions To Win Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer Brock Purdy To Throw Under 1.50 Passing Touchdowns Odds boosted to 12.20 Hills odds boosted bet builder, three legs to this one as follows: Baltimore Ravens To Win Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds boosted to 9.10 🤞 fd1972uk and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 Hills boost I've gone Gibbs & McCaffrey TDs and Purdy 2+ passing TD at 6.25 Done McC brace 17/10 and 'trick at 13/2 and Gibbs TD at 2.5 La Porta my other possible bet in that one In the other game I'm on the LIkely Lad as per previous post. Also Rice at 17/10 in that game, Flowers at 3.5 and Pacheco 2.4 Will update if anything else gets taken or catches my eye. MinellaWorksop and fd1972uk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 Andrews at 3.95 taken in the early game as well. MinellaWorksop and fd1972uk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Never went near Kelce, him and Mahomes are looming the biz, but the guy has done nowt for me, would've honestly taken Taylor Swift 1st td before him, lol. Had flowers on a boosted and had went Edwards epic boost. Got a few bets going on for 2nd game, mccaffrey on bet builders and also a couple of boosted bets, either going with aijuk or Samuel, although they are both boosted prices via coral and ladbrokes, and may go laporta or brown. MinellaWorksop and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 Have to be reasonably happy at finding two of the three TD scorers. That one didn’t exactly carry on as it started! fd1972uk and MinellaWorksop 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Going a bit pear shaped, 888 gubbed me, now 49ers are all but out of it, so it's all on Chiefs now, thought I was certain of watching a superbowl with both teams being a win possible, lol. Lions were 8/1 to win superbowl today. All bets well beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Some comeback by 49ers. Unfortunately another no wins. At least Superbowl have both teams to win with various free bets so will see what's on offer on the day. harry_rag and MinellaWorksop 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 39 minutes ago, fd1972uk said: Some comeback by 49ers. Unfortunately another no wins. At least Superbowl have both teams to win with various free bets so will see what's on offer on the day. Agreed mate, top comeback by the 49ers. Great position to be in for the Super Bowl with a guaranteed win. @harry_rag some good returns from the Touchdown Scorers again mate. Well done to you both. Top work indeed. I got lucky with the Bet365 bet builder, and I will happily take the luck, as it turns out that the Detroit Lions got paid out as a 'winner' as they got 17pts ahead in the game. A week's rest and then all roads lead to the Super Bowl. Viva Las Vegas! harry_rag and fd1972uk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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