2023 Welsh Grand National Trends - Chepstow on Wednesday 27th December

[White Feather]

• 19 of the last 21 winners finished in the top four places on their last start
• 18 of the last 21 winners were aged between six and nine
• 17 of the last 21 winners had run over a distance of three-and-a-half-miles (28 furlongs) at least once before
• 17 of the last 21 winners had previously won on Very Soft or Heavy ground
• 16 of the last 21 winners carried a weight of 10-10 or less
• 16 of the last 21 winners had run at least twice that season
• 15 of the last 21 winners went off at 10/1 or shorter
• 11 of the last 21 winners had won over fences at Chepstow

[richard-westwood]

I've rated this 

Chambard.  9.2 12/1 class 105 

Big breakaway. 8.9 class 67 

Complete unknown 8.7 class 90

I will do it    8.5 class 46 

Super survivor. 8.2 class 43 

Very difficult race as you'd imagine ......usually you'd favour the lower weights but this year the lower weights look quite poor so I have a strong feeling this will go to one of the listed above ....iwilldoit has a lot of weight but claimer will help and gets the distance so I can see it making the frame .....

Super survivor is well backed but doesn't look that good to me ... .looks very poor value and I'll overlook 

Complete unknown looked a decent horse over middle distances but when stepped up he weakened badly so a further step up again doesn't really look good .....opposed as a result 

Chambard is a horse on upgrade ....form looks strong .....class rating is strong ....average class rating for race is 70 so a class rating if 100 is well in .....looks a very strong Ew bet overall at decent odds 

Big breakaway is a very capable horse on a good day ....gets the distance but has lost his way recently .......is the type to bounce back suddenly but there's a risk if can .....possible Ew play 

Initially I'm going to back chambard Ew at 12/1 5pts Ew as I think that looks excellent value  and make a decision on other two nearer the time 

Chambard 5ptsew 12/1 wil hill

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by richard-westwood

[black rabbit]

7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I've rated this 

Chambard.  9.2 12/1 class 105 

Big breakaway. 8.9 class 67 

Complete unknown 8.7 class 90

I will do it    8.5 class 46 

Super survivor. 8.2 class 43 

Very difficult race as you'd imagine ......usually you'd favour the lower weights but this year the lower weights look quite poor so I have a strong feeling this will go to one of the listed above ....iwilldoit has a lot of weight but claimer will help and gets the distance so I can see it making the frame .....

Super survivor is well backed but doesn't look that good to me ... .looks very poor value and I'll overlook 

Complete unknown looked a decent horse over middle distances but when stepped up he weakened badly so a further step up again doesn't really look good .....opposed as a result 

Chambard is a horse on upgrade ....form looks strong .....class rating is strong ....average class rating for race is 70 so a class rating if 100 is well in .....looks a very strong Ew bet overall at decent odds 

Big breakaway is a very capable horse on a good day ....gets the distance but has lost his way recently .......is the type to bounce back suddenly but there's a risk if can .....possible Ew play 

Initially I'm going to back chambard Ew at 12/1 5pts Ew as I think that looks excellent value  and make a decision on other two nearer the time 

Chambard 5ptsew 12/1 wil hill

 

good luck with the punt richard / ive been with him last 2 runs  so cant desert him now i suppose  

{ have had a nibble on "wayfinder" at  big odd's "  { see notebook N H horses to look out for } 

P S "dont burn the Turkey" 😄

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, black rabbit said:

good luck with the punt richard / ive been with him last 2 runs  so cant desert him now i suppose  

{ have had a nibble on "wayfinder" at  big odd's "  { see notebook N H horses to look out for } 

P S "dont burn the Turkey" 😄

I'm actually dressing as Santa and delivering prezzies to the oldies then cooking a nice 3 course meal for them going home then doing it all again ...yay  ....I'm actually really looking forward to it .....I'm hoping doing good deeds gets me brownie points with the racing gods ...haha ...well that's the plan .....merry Xmas and as tiny Tim famously said ...and god bless everyone 🙏🤩🤩

[Tedthewolf]

Merry xmas Lads

I fancy Big Breakaway but put off   by the price  as low as 9/1 anti post for a horse that has pulled up in  his last 2 runs and only won one chase race i was hoping  at least 16's  with at  least 5 p with bog ! so its a wait and see for me but ran a cracker in this race last year off  1lb  higher if he can  leave current form behind has a hell of a chance in this imo.  I agree with  my Irish neighbour that Waynefinder  has a very decent chance and  should go well at a decent price (currently 25's) but i also like another one  at massive price  i have had a button e/w on  anti  post  but intend to have a few more on when bog and extra places kicks in.  Didero Vallis from the inform V Williams stable the yard cat could win if they saddled it up  that's  how  hot the stable is at present imho this horse is a ridiculous price  66/1 nice weight ran a nice race in the Cheltenham cross country in November disappointed back there in December but i really like its chances especially if it comes up very soft.

That would be my three against the field.

i will leave you with my favourite xmas song of all time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSVCMZ37QZ8

 

[black rabbit]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I'm actually dressing as Santa and delivering prezzies to the oldies then cooking a nice 3 course meal for them going home then doing it all again ...yay  ....I'm actually really looking forward to it .....I'm hoping doing good deeds gets me brownie points with the racing gods ...haha ...well that's the plan .....merry Xmas and as tiny Tim famously said ...and god bless everyone 🙏🤩🤩

pal "your a star" may the gods go with you 😘

[MCLARKE]

Happy christmas to all members

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, black rabbit said:

pal "your a star" may the gods go with you 😘

Dave Allen ....one of the greatest stand up comedians ever.

[Sporting Sam]

12 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I'm actually dressing as Santa and delivering prezzies to the oldies then cooking a nice 3 course meal for them going home then doing it all again ...yay  ....I'm actually really looking forward to it .....I'm hoping doing good deeds gets me brownie points with the racing gods ...haha ...well that's the plan .....merry Xmas and as tiny Tim famously said ...and god bless everyone 🙏🤩🤩

What a good fellow you are Richard.

2024 is yours for the taking!!!

Hopefully starting early doors with the Welsh national.

Best wishes to all. 🎅 

[Zilzalian]

21 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Merry xmas Lads

I fancy Big Breakaway but put off   by the price  as low as 9/1 anti post for a horse that has pulled up in  his last 2 runs and only won one chase race i was hoping  at least 16's  with at  least 5 p with bog ! so its a wait and see for me but ran a cracker in this race last year off  1lb  higher if he can  leave current form behind has a hell of a chance in this imo.  I agree with  my Irish neighbour that Waynefinder  has a very decent chance and  should go well at a decent price (currently 25's) but i also like another one  at massive price  i have had a button e/w on  anti  post  but intend to have a few more on when bog and extra places kicks in.  Didero Vallis from the inform V Williams stable the yard cat could win if they saddled it up  that's  how  hot the stable is at present imho this horse is a ridiculous price  66/1 nice weight ran a nice race in the Cheltenham cross country in November disappointed back there in December but i really like its chances especially if it comes up very soft.

That would be my three against the field.

i will leave you with my favourite xmas song of all time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSVCMZ37QZ8

 

I sort of agree with you about didero valis many times i have fancied this horse and just as many times it has failed to deliver for me, 66/1 is a good price i would suggest 33/1 represents its true chance (if i was a bookie) Although this does not look the strongest renewals so ew may be a shrewd bet.

[Tedthewolf]

1pt e/w WAYFINDER 25/1 6places

1pt e/w DIDERO VALLIS 66/1 6places

4pts invested

[richard-westwood]

On 12/24/2023 at 11:58 AM, richard-westwood said:

I've rated this 

Chambard.  9.2 12/1 class 105 

Big breakaway. 8.9 class 67 

Complete unknown 8.7 class 90

I will do it    8.5 class 46 

Super survivor. 8.2 class 43 

Very difficult race as you'd imagine ......usually you'd favour the lower weights but this year the lower weights look quite poor so I have a strong feeling this will go to one of the listed above ....iwilldoit has a lot of weight but claimer will help and gets the distance so I can see it making the frame .....

Super survivor is well backed but doesn't look that good to me ... .looks very poor value and I'll overlook 

Complete unknown looked a decent horse over middle distances but when stepped up he weakened badly so a further step up again doesn't really look good .....opposed as a result 

Chambard is a horse on upgrade ....form looks strong .....class rating is strong ....average class rating for race is 70 so a class rating if 100 is well in .....looks a very strong Ew bet overall at decent odds 

Big breakaway is a very capable horse on a good day ....gets the distance but has lost his way recently .......is the type to bounce back suddenly but there's a risk if can .....possible Ew play 

Initially I'm going to back chambard Ew at 12/1 5pts Ew as I think that looks excellent value  and make a decision on other two nearer the time 

Chambard 5ptsew 12/1 wil hill

 

Adding ..iwilldoit ...Ew to my team ...on account of riders claim 5pts Ew 7/1 

[calva decoy]

5 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

1pt e/w WAYFINDER 25/1 6places

1pt e/w DIDERO VALLIS 66/1 6places

4pts invested

I'll probably do DIDERO VALLIS last minute as well as Kerry Lee's bottom weight & Domaine De L'isle all small each ways if the ground turns soft / heavy & not it's current good to soft , Sky Bet are paying 7 places .

[black rabbit]

On 12/24/2023 at 7:09 PM, black rabbit said:

good luck with the punt richard / ive been with him last 2 runs  so cant desert him now i suppose  

{ have had a nibble on "wayfinder" at  big odd's "  { see notebook N H horses to look out for } 

P S "dont burn the Turkey" 😄

Chambard                                          2 50Chp/                 1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Wayfinder                                          2 50 Chp/          { had 1/40th of a pt ew 100/1  posted on NH horses to follow postings weeks ago }

Mister Fogpatches                          3 00 Lep/                  1/40th of a pt ew     80/1

Regal Steel                                        3 00 LP/                    1/40th of a pt ew     44/1

Emmpressive Lady                          3 40 Km/                  1/40th of a pt ew     20/1

Not Available                                    3 25 Ch/                   1/40th of a pt ew     18/1

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by black rabbit

[LEE-GRAYS]

Iceo madrik 66/1 french

[LEE-GRAYS]

Looking at weather be lucky if it goes ahead 

[Tedthewolf]

The Coral Welsh Grand National (2.50) is likely to be run in testing conditions following a deluge of rain at Chepstow, with more expected before the race gets under way.

The going has eased to soft, good to soft in places following 13mm of rain overnight and heavy showers are set to hit the track. They could bring up to between 15-20mm rainfall.

Speaking at 7.45am, clerk of the course Libby O'Flaherty said: "We've had 13mm since the early hours this morning and we're forecast for more rainfall on and off through the day. It'll be heavy at times and windy as well, so it's highly likely that conditions are going to ease throughout the day. 

"Everyone's been saying to me it'll be a proper Welsh Grand National, as it isn't a proper Welsh National unless there's a fair bit of rain! We're expecting a big crowd, with hospitality sold out, and despite the rain we're expecting plenty of runners to stand their ground in the big one."

A full field of 20 remains for the prestigious marathon contest, with Super Survivor and Nassalam the 5-1 joint-favourites currently.

Conditions have also eased at Kempton for the second day of its Christmas meeting following overnight rain.

The going is now good to soft following 2mm of rain at the track since racing yesterday, and more rain is expected to continue and off through the day.

The feature race is the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase (2.30), which is being run as a handicap this year. The other Graded contest on the card is the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase (1.55).

Conditions at both Leopardstown and Limerick could also soften this morning after heavy rain was forecast at both tracks overnight.

The going at Leopardstown ahead of the second day of its Christmas meeting is currently yielding, yielding to soft on the hurdles course and yielding, good to yielding on the chase track. However, potentially 15-20mm of rainfall was expected following racing yesterday.

Around 20mm of rain was also set to hit Limerick overnight. The going is currently soft to heavy on the chase course, and soft to heavy, heavy in places on the hurdles track.

[calva decoy]

12.45 Kempton - BROOKIE 7/1 eway bet365 .

6.30 Wolves - THEONLYWAYISESSEX 12/1 eway bet365 ( 4 places ) .

[SoberC]

14 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Mister Fogpatches                          3 00 Lep/                  1/40th of a pt ew     80/1

 

 

Ground against. Mate's father is owner. Still have my tiny e/w but drifting for a reason, prefers firmer, has been raining here.

[Tedthewolf]

14 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Chambard                                          2 50Chp/                 1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Wayfinder                                          2 50 Chp/          { had 1/40th of a pt ew 100/1  posted on NH horses to follow postings weeks ago }

Mister Fogpatches                          3 00 Lep/                  1/40th of a pt ew     80/1

Regal Steel                                        3 00 LP/                    1/40th of a pt ew     44/1

 

Had a wee bit on regal steel  myself @ 25's i would  much  rather do that with my selection rather than fav  panda boy   these were first 3 home in this last year!

Edited December 27, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[black rabbit]

19 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Chambard                                          2 50Chp/                 1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Wayfinder                                          2 50 Chp/          { had 1/40th of a pt ew 100/1  posted on NH horses to follow postings weeks ago }

Mister Fogpatches                          3 00 Lep/                  1/40th of a pt ew     80/1

Regal Steel                                        3 00 LP/                    1/40th of a pt ew     44/1

Emmpressive Lady                          3 40 Km/                  1/40th of a pt ew     20/1

Not Available                                    3 25 Ch/                   1/40th of a pt ew     18/1

 

Regal Steel for ew "sheckels"

Edited December 27, 2023 by black rabbit