Melbourne Cup

[Darran]

Having put up the winner of The Everest, the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate in recent weeks I am hoping I can make it 4/4 in the biggest race of them all, the Melbourne Cup. Here is my look through the 23 runners which make up this year's field.

 

Gold Trip - History isn't on his side he is aiming to be the first repeat winner since Makybe Diva and the first to carry 58.5kg since Think Big in 1975, but last year's winner is absolutely flying this prep and arguably is in even better form. The Turnbull win 3 back was top class, he didn't get much luck in running when 3^rd in the Caulfield Cup and it was a similar story in the Cox Plate when 5^th last time. People say he needs cut, but he has proven this prep he can more than handle a quick track so the ground doesn't worry me. Mark Zahra has picked Without A Fight over him, but James McDonald is pretty much the best super sub you can hope for. The one minus for me is his draw in 2. Last year he settled in 18^th and flew home from a wider draw, but this year he is going to need luck in running from his inside gate. For me though that is the only negative and if he holds the form he's shown already this prep he has to be in the top 4.

 

Alenquer - A former Royal Ascot winner and a Group 1 winner in Ireland, but he's been unplaced in 5 Aussie starts now and in what will be Damian Oliver's last Cup, he is going to have to pull off something special to win another one on the 6yo. Needs to pass a vet check on the morning of the race.

 

Without A Fight  - Given a very European style campaign with just 1 prep run leading into the Caulfield Cup, but it worked a treat as he came pretty much widest of all round the home bend to storm home and be really tough in a battling finish with his former stablemate West Wind Blows. He was just 13^th in this last year, but the ground was too wet for him and we know he comes into this in peak form. Connections will probably be happy enough he is drawn in 16 as he should be able to settle in the latter half of the field and get clear air in the straight. The double hasn't been done in 22 years, but he has to have a strong chance.

 

Breakup - Japanese horse whose best recent runs have come over 3000m and 3200m in Japan earlier in the year. Hadn't run since June going into the Caulfield Cup which was always likely to be too short a trip for him and he basically stayed in around 8^th place the whole way. To me he ran like a horse who needed the run and he really ought to improve on that run especially up in trip. He also didn't get a lot of room twice in the straight and without that I think he would have finished closer. Wouldn't discount him at double figure odds.

 

Vauban - Plenty of people think you may as well give him the Cup now as they are so certain of him winning. Willie Mullins has gone close to winning this race before and it seems this has been plan long in the making possibly before he even won the 2022 Triumph Hurdle. Bolted up at Royal Ascot beating Absurde by 7.5L and then won at Naas to qualify for this. I have said on Twitter that if he drew poorly then that wouldn't help and was joking about 24, but inside draws can be just as tricky although Ryan Moore can work wonders as he showed an Auguste Rodin on Saturday. He gets 7lbs from Gold Trip although I wouldn't be certain that would be enough. What I will say though is his owner thinks he could be a Cups horse next year over here and if he is then he ought to win this. The price has been too short in recent days, but he is just starting to drift out and he is a tempting bet again.

 

Soulcombe - Was really impressive when winning the Queen Elizabeth on the final day of this carnival a year ago, but has only won once this year which came in a Listed Race at Caulfield over 1700m. He was a super 3^rd in the Turnbull and does get a 3kg pull in the weights with Gold Trip for a 2.15L defeat that day. The worry is he can blow the start and he lost about 6L at the start in the Caulfield Cup. I thought he did very well though to come home 7^th given that. The further trip and longer home straight here will help him if he does blow the start, but his draw of 4 isn't going to be a great help in that regards. Even so he has to be one of the leading candidates. 

 

Absurde - The Ebor winner under a great Frankie Dettori ride and whilst no horse has done the double it is usually a good form guide for this race. He was 2^nd to Vauban at Royal Ascot, but he was really keen in the early stages and was held up of a fairly slow pace which the winner was able to dictate, so he certainly wasn't see to best effect that day. The yard clearly think Vauban is their main chance, but he is certainly one of the possible winners.

 

Right You Are - Won the Mornington Cup in April and was a really strong 5^th in the Caulfield Cup last time especially given he settled in around 5^th just off a very strong pace. That was a personal best for me and came on the back of only finishing 11^th in the Turnbull. He's never been further than 2400m and you wouldn't really say he's going to improve for it.

 

Vow And Declare - The 2019 winner who has then finished 18^th in 2020 and 10^th last year. Despite that he still has more weight than he did when he won the race, but to be fair to him he comes into this in good form with a 2^nd in the G1 Caulfield Stakes and in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup last time. Could improve on the 10^th of last year, but surely isn't going to repeat 2019's success.

 

Ashrun - Was 10^th in the 2020 running and then didn't run again until September due to a tendon injury. Was OK in his first 2 runs back and then finished a good 2^nd in the Geelong Cup. Every chance he will come on for that again, but that form isn't good enough to be winning this.

 

Daqiansweet Junior - Stays well and won the Adelaide Cup and has been 3^rd in a Sydney Cup, but has been unplaced in 9 starts since then and shouldn't be good enough.

 

Okita Soushi - Another winner from this years Royal Ascot winning the Duke Of Edinburgh. Had a break after that and finished 3^rd in the Irish St Leger Trial. He then came over to Australia and finished 12^th in the Caulfield Cup. He will have to improve massively on that.

 

Sheraz - Only managed 1 placing in 12 Australian starts which came in the Sydney Cup last year. Stays, but highly unlikely to be good enough.

 

Lastotchka - Having her first start in Australia after winning the Prix Gladiateur at Longchamp a couple of months ago. I'm not sure that was a strong race and she might prefer a softer surface. A draw of 21 isn't ideal either.

 

Magical Lagoon - Won the Irish Oaks last year, but has been pretty awful since going to Australia. 6^th in the Geelong Cup was an improvement, but needs a hell of a lot more.

 

Military  Mission - Landed the Herbert Power at Caulfield last time although the last horse to win that and the Cup was Rogan Josh in 1999. Was a good effort though and he has also won the Newcastle Cup this prep. Has never been further than 2406m though and that might be an issue, but he has better claims than quite a few of these.

 

Serpentine - The 2020 Derby winner, but he's only won once in Australia and that was a 4 horse race. Only beat 2 home in this last year, but he's actually been running the best he has in Australia this prep and was 3^rd to Future History in the Bart Cummings last time. Even so he would be a surprise winner.

 

Virtuous Circle - 2^nd in the ATC Derby at Randwick in April, but has struggled for form since and was only 8^th in the Geelong Cup last time.

 

More Felons - People in the UK will know him as Scriptwriter as he has had a name change since going to Australia. Started off with Aiden O'Brien and then went hurdling for Milton Harris last jumps season and did well winning a Grade 2 at the November meeting at Cheltenham. He ended up finishing 5^th in the G1 Juvenile Hurdle at the Grand National meeting. He then went back to the level and finished 7^th behind Vauban at Royal Ascot and 8^th in the Ebor behind Absurde. What he does get here though is a massive turn around in the weights which in theory gives him half a chance of reversing the form. Loomed large in the Geelong Cup on his first start for Waller and ended up 5^th in a blanket finish. One of those at a bigger price who does have a chance, but he has drawn in 24 and that will be no help.

 

Future History - Great to see Hollie Doyle pick up a ride and this ex-French horse has progressed well since going to Australia. Won the G3 Bart Cummings in good style when making all before a change of tactics last time in the Moonee Valley Cup where he was held up from a bad draw and stayed on well to finish 3rd. I'm guessing they will try and lead with him again here from 13 and given we don't know if he stays that might be tough. I can see him running well though.

 

Interpretation - Had been behind Future History twice this prep including when just 9^th in the Bart Cummings. Won a head bob in the Bendigo Cup last week, but that doesn't look good enough form for this.

 

Kalapour - Running solidly this prep and won the Archer Stakes on Saturday to get into the race. Made all then when able to dictate the speed and dug deep to hold on. I can't see him being good enough

 

True Marvel - Has won over 3800m so we know he stays and was placed in the Sydney Cup and Brisbane Cups last season, but unlikely to be good enough.

 

Verdict - For me there are 7 horses who can win this year's Melbourne Cup and in racecard order they are Gold Trip, Without A Fight, Breakup, Vauban, Soulcombe, Absurde and More Felons. I'm going to have small e/w bets on More Felons and Breakup. More Felons could be well handicapped and I like the fact he's had a run in Australia going into this, although the draw is a negative. I thought Breakup's run at Caulfield was better than it first seemed and given the scope for improvement I want him onside as well. With bookies going 5 places and a couple going 6 I think that offers great value in backing Soulcombe and Gold Trip. Both have drifted out, but I think both have great chances of finishing in the top 6. Soulcombe might blow the start again, but the long Flemington straight will give him ample chance to get involved in the finish and Gold Trip is going so well I just can't see how he doesn't finish in the top 5. At the prices I will leave Absurde and Without A Fight alone. I'm a little surprised that Absurde is as strong in the market as he is because I get the feeling the Mullins camp all fancy the favourite. Having said that if he got the 1-2 I wouldn't be shocked. Without A Fight was my main tip for this last year, but he disappointed on the soft ground. Clearly the Caulfield Cup win was huge and that was a new PB, but his price is tight enough now. Finally after much thought I am going to back Vauban as well as a cover bet. On the Australian Bet365 prices he is now over 3/1 and given I would have him around 3/1 I have to bet him at that price, but I would not take anything under 3/1.

 

NB Bet365 have two sets of prices an Australian book and a UK book. The Australian one only offers 3 places as that is the normal e/w terms over there and can be found in the Australian horse racing section on the site. Because it is only 3 places the prices are bigger (thus why Vauban is a bigger prices there). If you want the UK one you have to go to the ante-post section and go to where it says Australia & New Zealand NRNB and the 5 place market is there.

 

Strong bets

Gold Trip e/w @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred to 5 places or 6/1 with William Hill to 6 places

Soulcombe e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred to 5 places or 8/1 with William Hill to 6 places

 

Cover bet

Vauban @ 17/5 with Bet365 in their Australian market

 

Small e/w plays

Breakup @ 18/1 with Betfair to 5 places or 16/1 with William Hill to 6 places

More Felons @ 33/1 with Betfair to 5 places or 22/1 with William Hill to 6 places

[richard-westwood]

I ran this through the computer as best I could and it also picked gold trip top rated ....so that seems a good Ew bet ....Ew wise it picked future history and serpentine ...but there's a question over distance with those two ....but Holly Doyle has her first ever ride on future history and she likes to break records so it would be no surprise to see her at least place if she stays ....so small Ew future history too 🤔

[Nigwilliam]

2ew's for me

Soulcombe 17/2 ,  Breakup 16/1.

skybet 6 places.

[Zilzalian]

I quite like Ashrun ew at the price, watched it and backed it a few times when trained by Wohler in Europe. Alenquer bit of a mystery thought it would do well in Aus so will have a saver just to stop me being annoyed with myself if it wins or places.

[Brahmin]

A interesting / informative write up from Darran......sooo some female intuition as my hubby already backed  Vauban @ 3/1............

     Bet365 special.....boosted treble Top 10 finish @ 5.44/1 of Vauban / Future History / Interpretation 

      Absurde 8/1 EW              Soulcombe  9/1 EW    2nd                Break Up 18/1 EW                           5 places

Edited November 7, 2023 by Brahmin

[Tedthewolf]

3 e/w for me main bet SOLCOMBE 8/1 2nd bet365 bog 5 places 8/1 if  this horse gets away  ok from the stalls should run a very big race longer trip should suit too, ALENQUER llost 50/1 bet365  5places not shown his best so far  in oz   will be peaked for this could outrun his price. ASHBURN 4th 40/1 betfair 5places  Another horse which is too big a price imo.  New Trainer has got this horse back for another crack at this race top jock booked.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[Sporting Sam]

What a fabulous race I know very little about it but in recent years have been  up early bright eyed and bushy tailed for this race.

Big heads up to Darran for the write up. Thank you. 
Absurde

each way

if a top former  British horse fails a vets test later this horse could be the main beneficiary.

the Mullins second string but potentially better treated by their ascot form. Mullins a master of subterfuge and half of Britain on the other horse who is yet to race in such an exacting race on the flat despite routing the field at Ascot. Just like the Ebor Willie has booked a top jockey for the second string and he has in Zac Purton a top Aussie jockey who is desperate to win this race from his position of Hong Kong’s top jockey year on year. Frankie Dettori is mercifully starting his suspension now and the stewards always come down on his style of riding hard in this race. But he was the choice at York and won well. If Zac thought he could win this race on another horse he’d have gone in that direction elsewhere. Ryan Moore’s fantastic ride on Saturday night remains fresh in the mind but this may not be the cakewalk many people think it is going to be.
military mission

each way

nice low draw and great form on the Balance.

Gold Trip

each way

in very good order

More Felons

each way

drawn out in the car park but gets a massive pull from non runner. Experienced  and controversial jockey on board ,who aims to win. Gets bundles of free energy despite seemingly impossible draw.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by Sporting Sam