Premier League Predictions > October 27th to 29th

[harry_rag]

Here's this week's Premier League games for your consideration. Manchester derby with United as big home underdogs, some tough games for the promoted teams and a Friday night game to usher in the weekend. Please share your thoughts and bets with us below.

[MMFloors]

Home	Away	Model Home Hcp.	Book H. Hcp.	H. Hcp. (D)Adv.
Crystal Palace	Tottenham	1,87	0,50	-1,37
Chelsea	Brentford	-0,53	-0,75	-0,22
Arsenal	Sheffield Utd	-2,41	-2,25	0,16
Bournemouth	Burnley	-0,38	-0,25	0,13
Wolves	Newcastle Utd	0,76	0,75	-0,01
West Ham	Everton	-0,28	-0,25	0,03
Aston Villa	Luton Town	-1,02	-1,75	-0,73
Brighton	Fulham	0,35	-1,00	-1,35
Liverpool	Nott'ham Forest	-1,88	-1,75	0,13
Manchester Utd	Manchester City	-0,57	0,75	1,32

 

As you may already noticed I only took home dogs in my last bets. So if I stick with that it's just ManU to bet this round. But that's a hard one. Going to think about it. If it hits +1 I'll take it for sure.

[malabgd]

Crystal Palace vs Tottenham

2023-10-27T21:00+02:00

 

Crystal Palace

Doubtful: Michael Olise (0/0 m, probably out)

Out (injuries/other): James Tomkins (1/0 d), Eberechi Eze (7/1 m), Dean Henderson (0/0 g)

Suspended: -

 

Tottenham

Doubtful: Pape Sarr (9/1 m, probably in), Destiny Udogie (9/0 d)

Out (injuries/other): Manor Solomon (5/0 f), Ivan Perisic (5/0 m), Alfie Malik Whiteman (0/0 g), Ryan Sessegnon (0/0 m), Rodrigo Bentancur (0/0 m)

Suspended: -

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

Interesting facts based only on statistics

Tottenham scored at least one goal in 100% of away games.

Tottenham scored at least two goals in 80% of away games.

Tottenham scored in both halves in 60% of away games.

80% chance that there will be a draw at half-time.

43% chance that there will be more than 3 goals in this game.

45% chance that there will be a draw at half-time and draw at full-time.

[alexcaruso808]

I went for this tonight, it looks reasonable enough.

 

[harry_rag]

Spurs win, >1 goal and Son to score at 3.65. No 365 offer tonight but this will do for a reasonable interest at the price. 

[MMFloors]

Nice call @harry_rag

[harry_rag]

Going with Palmer again for Chelsea, at 29/10. A "B" system bet (doing better than the "A" system I post on here so far this month). Also done the Brentford front of Mbuemo at 7/2 and Wissa at 15/4 as I think the chances of at least one of them scoring is better than those odds suggest.

[MMFloors]

No bet this round.  Casemiro is most likely out for ManU (expected him te be fit) and since he contributes a lot to the underlying stats (second from squad) I can't take them. 

Edited October 29, 2023 by MMFloors

[harry_rag]

Liverpool front 3 knocking on the door of being value. Based on what prices are where, a couple of BB's

Liverpool win, >2 goals and Salah to score at 8/5

Nunez and Jota to score at 5/1

[harry_rag]

Adringa for Brighton at 16/5 (a "B" system bet).

[alexcaruso808]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Liverpool front 3 knocking on the door of being value. Based on what prices are where, a couple of BB's

Liverpool win, >2 goals and Salah to score at 8/5

Nunez and Jota to score at 5/1

Thanks again !!   did you link both your bet builders together?  

[harry_rag]

22 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks again !!   did you link both your bet builders together?  

No, I should have shown a bit more ambition!  Where did you do them out of interest?

[alexcaruso808]

31 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

No, I should have shown a bit more ambition!  Where did you do them out of interest?

I did them seperate on B365, it was only after I had placed the bets and was browsing the site that I noticed you could do that.  They tuck the offer away on the scrolling banner on the football page, and it's on the third slide - very sneaky!!   It's something to keep in mind though. 

[MMFloors]

Great Liverpool call @harry_rag your system looks very good

.

[harry_rag]

19 hours ago, MMFloors said:

Great Liverpool call @harry_rag your system looks very good

.

Just had a quick look at the latest returns for various bet types this year and (in terms of fixed odds bets) bet builders are my most profitable single bet type, just ahead of the anytime goalscorer system posted on here. Some way back in 3rd place (but the only other bet type to show above £50 profit) is first goalscorer bets (most of which will have been each way). All of those are related in as much as it comes down to seeming to have an edge in terms of the anytime goalscorer market.

Rugby League, NFL, "Other Sports" and bookings bets are all at the other end of the list and have cost me over £100 each. Probably some learning to be had there; might be worth cutting down on "fun" bets on sports where I have no sign of a discernible edge.