friday 15th sept

[ivans82]

All Donny

1315    Stifling   9-2     John Gosden usually targets Sept onwards with his 2 year olds , this one is well bred so i`ll give it a go

1350 War Rooms    11-4  When Owen Burrows sends his once raced maidens up into Graded company He usually means business.......Days nap , wouldn`t be surprised if it started  7-4 .

1425  Inquisitively 9-2   ,can give Big Els something to think about , behind it at Royal Ascot but was very impressive last time out .

1500  Coltrane 6-4    Only Trueshan to beat and no one knows if the op on said Horse will make the difference .

1535   Bague D`Or    9-2     Great run over shorter last time out after a long time off the track .

1610  Cherry  9-4    Again looked impressive last time out , but a tight little race .

1645  Baradar  2-1    poor odds but loves soft ground , unlucky in the Lincoln , Beat Hickory last time out who ran a blinder last week .

 

All fairly short , but War Rooms the banker .

[kensland]

Double. 

2.25. Donc. Inquisitively      11/2

4.45. Chest. Bear on Loose    2/1

singles & double 

Good luck  all 

[black rabbit]

Gis  a  sub                                                 3 55 Chs/              1/40th of a pt ew      33/1

Edited September 15, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[Sporting Sam]

Morning all

eight winners yesterday nine if you include the winning distance bet.

I made a profit yesterday, but have to re- examine my techniques.  If I can land eight or nine in a day how much better would that be if they were all together or at least in threes and fours?

 I am an at the post analysist reading outcomes under the race condition pressures feeding on market moves and all the vibes of the immediate lead up  to the race paddock picks etc. So I’m trying to find a happy medium betwixt the ante post and pre race period so I can make selections earlier.

So from today some earlier picks and hopefully a double selection.

But a big reduction in the plays I make, which will be very hard in breaking the habit of a lifetime.

on a regular basis a feast is followed by a famine. I tend to have an after the Lord Mayors show day the very next day. So today is a good day for the “less is more” way forward.. . .

The best today is likely to come in the Doncaster cup where Coltrane will be looking to assert his clear advantage here despite a three pound penalty. Only five go to post but Coltrane has done it tough to be the favourite. The grand visir is a tempting price and questions abound about wether we will see the real trueshan after a wind op when Alan king is suggesting he will “need the run”. Ever the opportunist Aidan O’Brien has meydan winner Broome poised to take full advantage of any weakness here, while Sweet William the youngster ran a career best to Absurde in the Ebor. Maybe he is best caught fresh here but looks up against it. Coltrane to win but at the price the grand visir is my saver each way at an insulting price.

the earlier flying Scotsman is a fascinating affair and the course and distance win of Owen Burrows star turn  War Room was on paper breathtaking and he is priced accordingly. Alarm bells ring loudly here for me. He could be called the winner a long way out passing the camera for the first time is when he caught my eye. But he straightened up takingly and from the head on He was making progress hand over fist and settled the race in a stride. There is where the problems pile up 

1 no opposition and question is can he do it in better company?

2 no worries that he beat trees as you can only beat what you face, but there will be no Red Sea effect here and he’d not get any such favours in running today from this field.

3 the going has to be soft and if it dries any or if they have overwatered he’d be in trouble at this stage. 
4 he’s missed his intended engagement and could be overcooked today in terms of preparation.

5. The price. True, a horse doesn’t know his price but there is no value here at all.

so, the alternative for me is Aidan O’Briens runner  Battle cry and kingdom of riches at a massive price.

interestingly I am also going to stick with the physics because while some have made fun of it, I haven’t begun to scratch the surface and it has made money particularly yesterday. you cannot get eight winners just by guessing. The draw data horse based on a very wide trawl of  previous races is Local Hero in stall 3. The accuracy is to within .3 of a stall. It isn’t based on ground, yard or any number of countless statistics and variables just fact. Local Hero also gets what I call free energy. Whilst on the traverse law of physics the recipient of this feature is kingdom of riches. If War Room does crack on and land this race I’ll be delighted and happy to be wrong as he was highly impressive on debut, but the nagging doubts remain for me until he silences them. 
Downpatrick 2:15

Gone for Tea

each way

Racheal Blackmore rides for Peter fahey on hurdles debut. I like this runner and represents a bit of value against the Mullins horse here. A wide margin winner when last seen in a bumper last month and trainer has said his future lies in hurdles as soon as possible. The jockey booking reflects that. There is a lot going on in racing at the moment and just a day after Luke comer has been banned for a few years and fined ‘pennies’ for

allegedly  doping his horses on steroids, yes the two biggest winners of all time were on steroids He knows no fear 300/1 and najavjo river 200/1 last months winner. I say pennies because the fine represents the Irish horse racing board fined the billionaire  their legal costs and he’ll be free to train again soon despite cheating which goes back years. At the same time in England Harry Burns has been banned for two months after the jockey failed to declare a change in medication that he uses to treat chrones diesease. Yes folks people doping and mistreating horses and jockeys using steroids and taking coccaine and the BHA find a guy (who is a great ambassador and role model to the sport for kids who want to be jockeys) and they take away his livelihood  for a technicality you couldn’t make it up.

BHA You are a laughing stock 

REINSTATE HARRY BURNS AND APOLOGISE TO THE GUY

 

Doncaster flying Scotsman
Battle cry

win

Local Hero

win ( small stake)

kingdom of Riches

each way 

looked the part very early on when last seen and was asserting from a long way out. Clearly eased at the finish and was not all out, so there may be more to come.

Doncaster cup

Coltrane

win

The Grand Visir

each way

2:15

Downpatrick

GONE FOR TEA

Each way

Edited September 15, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Zilzalian]

2Yo speed figures for the 150 Donc

1 kingdom of riches       130

2 gushing gold                123

3 royal zabeel                 122+

4 battle cry                      122

[Tedthewolf]

https://www.racingpost.com/news/ireland/huge-doping-scandal-hits-ireland-as-billionaire-businessman-luke-comer-banned-for-three-years-and-hit-with-fines-and-costs-of-840754-aW3Wv1L1DnHE/

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/ireland/huge-doping-scandal-hits-ireland-as-billionaire-businessman-luke-comer-banned-for-three-years-and-hit-with-fines-and-costs-of-840754-aW3Wv1L1DnHE/

Doesn't surprise me with the results over there ...I've been saying it for ages .....and I guarantee you it's just the tip of the iceberg 

[Brahmin]

good afternoon, small interest today..........Main bet have 'Big' hopes 👍

ches 1.35          Exigency  6/1              Carlton and Co    15/2 EW                Hoof it Hoof it  12/1 EW      4th             4 places

Don 1.50           War Rooms  2/1               Gushing Gold  10/1 EW   2nd  11/1             Kingdom of Riches    10/1 EW 

Don 2.35           Big Evs  5/2     WON  (Main bet 🏆 )                      Graceful Thunder  12/1  EW      

Sand 2.40         Devils Angel  5/1                Impeach 22/1 EW                     Recon Mission   14/1 EW           

Ches 2.45         Glendown 8/1 EW     WON              Sugarhill Babe  18/1 EW               4 places

Ball 3.05           An Braden Feasa  10/3    WON              Expelliarmus     5/2  

Ches 3.20         Two Auld pals  7/2                  Baez    7/2     WON 

 

              4 WINS 🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆  and 2 EW places so that will do nicely 😎 💷 ........steady start then 4 wins.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Brahmin

[azzybear]

dancing Gemini 1.50 

[Sporting Sam]

At the post

chester 1:35

Hoof it hoof it

eachvway 

[Sporting Sam]

Another at the post at Chester 

2:10

Terratino Fire

each way

jockey well known for holding some back for future races. That seemed to be the case when came back from the clouds to take fourth. Maybe it was for today.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[calva decoy]

5 hours ago, Sporting Sam said:

Morning all

eight winners yesterday nine if you include the winning distance bet.

I made a profit yesterday, but have to re- examine my techniques.  If I can land eight or nine in a day how much better would that be if they were all together or at least in threes and fours?

 I am an at the post analysist reading outcomes under the race condition pressures feeding on market moves and all the vibes of the immediate lead up  to the race paddock picks etc. So I’m trying to find a happy medium betwixt the ante post and pre race period so I can make selections earlier.

So from today some earlier picks and hopefully a double selection.

But a big reduction in the plays I make, which will be very hard in breaking the habit of a lifetime.

on a regular basis a feast is followed by a famine. I tend to have an after the Lord Mayors show day the very next day. So today is a good day for the “less is more” way forward.. . .

The best today is likely to come in the Doncaster cup where Coltrane will be looking to assert his clear advantage here despite a three pound penalty. Only five go to post but Coltrane has done it tough to be the favourite. The grand visir is a tempting price and questions abound about wether we will see the real trueshan after a wind op when Alan king is suggesting he will “need the run”. Ever the opportunist Aidan O’Brien has meydan winner Broome poised to take full advantage of any weakness here, while Sweet William the youngster ran a career best to Absurde in the Ebor. Maybe he is best caught fresh here but looks up against it. Coltrane to win but at the price the grand visir is my saver each way at an insulting price.

the earlier flying Scotsman is a fascinating affair and the course and distance win of Owen Burrows star turn  War Room was on paper breathtaking and he is priced accordingly. Alarm bells ring loudly here for me. He could be called the winner a long way out passing the camera for the first time is when he caught my eye. But he straightened up takingly and from the head on He was making progress hand over fist and settled the race in a stride. There is where the problems pile up 

1 no opposition and question is can he do it in better company?

2 no worries that he beat trees as you can only beat what you face, but there will be no Red Sea effect here and he’d not get any such favours in running today from this field.

3 the going has to be soft and if it dries any or if they have overwatered he’d be in trouble at this stage. 
4 he’s missed his intended engagement and could be overcooked today in terms of preparation.

5. The price. True, a horse doesn’t know his price but there is no value here at all.

so, the alternative for me is Aidan O’Briens runner  Battle cry and kingdom of riches at a massive price.

interestingly I am also going to stick with the physics because while some have made fun of it, I haven’t begun to scratch the surface and it has made money particularly yesterday. you cannot get eight winners just by guessing. The draw data horse based on a very wide trawl of  previous races is Local Hero in stall 3. The accuracy is to within .3 of a stall. It isn’t based on ground, yard or any number of countless statistics and variables just fact. Local Hero also gets what I call free energy. Whilst on the traverse law of physics the recipient of this feature is kingdom of riches. If War Room does crack on and land this race I’ll be delighted and happy to be wrong as he was highly impressive on debut, but the nagging doubts remain for me until he silences them. 
Downpatrick 2:15

Gone for Tea

each way

Racheal Blackmore rides for Peter fahey on hurdles debut. I like this runner and represents a bit of value against the Mullins horse here. A wide margin winner when last seen in a bumper last month and trainer has said his future lies in hurdles as soon as possible. The jockey booking reflects that. There is a lot going on in racing at the moment and just a day after Luke comer has been banned for a few years and fined ‘pennies’ for

allegedly  doping his horses on steroids, yes the two biggest winners of all time were on steroids He knows no fear 300/1 and najavjo river 200/1 last months winner. I say pennies because the fine represents the Irish horse racing board fined the billionaire  their legal costs and he’ll be free to train again soon despite cheating which goes back years. At the same time in England Harry Burns has been banned for two months after the jockey failed to declare a change in medication that he uses to treat chrones diesease. Yes folks people doping and mistreating horses and jockeys using steroids and taking coccaine and the BHA find a guy (who is a great ambassador and role model to the sport for kids who want to be jockeys) and they take away his livelihood  for a technicality you couldn’t make it up.

BHA You are a laughing stock 

REINSTATE HARRY BURNS AND APOLOGISE TO THE GUY

 

Doncaster flying Scotsman
Battle cry

win

Local Hero

win ( small stake)

kingdom of Riches

each way 

looked the part very early on when last seen and was asserting from a long way out. Clearly eased at the finish and was not all out, so there may be more to come.

Doncaster cup

Coltrane

win

The Grand Visir

each way

2:15

Downpatrick

GONE FOR TEA

Each way

Well done , you don't half have some bets every day , I sometimes find it hard to find one horse I fancy to bet on but good luck with your picks today & future .

[Sporting Sam]

11 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Well done , you don't half have some bets every day , I sometimes find it hard to find one horse I fancy to bet on but good luck with your picks today & future .

Thank you calva decoy and it is great when they win and not so otherwise.

 I was so pleased with yesterday’s results but that cannot happen everyday so eased off a bit.  a nice couple of each ways with hoof it hoof it  and gone for tea. But the difference between a win and an each way is huge for such a narrow margin. I didn’t expect hoof it to win but knew about the manoeuvre D. Fentiman would make to get to the rail so he was a value selection. A win for gone to tea would have paid fifty pounds but instead it was about £11.50. If Coltrane wins though,  it would be a ‘cracker’ !!! As would the grand visir.

[richard-westwood]

445 donc 

Baradar. 8.7  7/2 

Persuasion. 8.5. 11/2 

Raatea. 8.2 

5pt wins top 2 

[Zilzalian]

would love trueshan to win the 300 but i cant see it interest for me is sweet william simply based on the fact that it is out of shirocco so is full of stamina should beat this lot imo

[Zilzalian]

6 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

445 donc 

Baradar. 8.7  7/2 

Persuasion. 8.5. 11/2 

Raatea. 8.2 

5pt wins top 2 

I like raatea but stable woeful at the moment. will have a reduced bet with raatea and zip but ground drying is a bit against that one.

[Sporting Sam]

I hope you are wrong zil and the one I obviously want to see go well is the grand visir to nab second or better behind Coltrane. The wind surgery could work the oracle for Trueshan who is far from gone but I’m hoping needs the run after that. 
 

when they all come in safely I can turn my attention to sandown park and my third at the poster race today where 

Sandown 3:15

STRUTTING

win 

a £130k foal made £300 k more as a yearling and Is bred to do well for John and Thaidy might just make a winning start here.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Zilzalian]

Take a bow Holly Doyle what a ride and at last a jockey making a decision when needed.

[richard-westwood]

32 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I like raatea but stable woeful at the moment. will have a reduced bet with raatea and zip but ground drying is a bit against that one.

It's still goodsft soft currently ....I just think he has a squeak Ew ....will be interesting to see what happens 

[Brahmin]

😎 nice 15 mins for me, did both in each race for J O'Brien & Jim Goldie and each had the winner.........Friday evening sorted for when Birthday Lady returns later 👍 

 

[Zilzalian]

I wish i had 50p rfc on that race......oh wait a minute i did 😄

[richard-westwood]

3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I wish i had 50p rfc on that race......oh wait a minute i did 😄

Nice ...140

[Zilzalian]

8 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I wish i had 50p rfc on that race......oh wait a minute i did 😄

£215 back on the bog forecast, for 50p can't complain

Edited September 15, 2023 by Zilzalian

[Sporting Sam]

Well Lord Mayor’s  show as anticipated. Great display from Trueshan and sweet William. Two selections in the evening meeting at Salisbury hopefully.

well found zil.

I've backed the kiwis to score 6+ tries in each half tonight and Harry Kane to have 2+ shots on target vs bayer Leverkusen.!!

Edited September 15, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

2 hours ago, Brahmin said:

good afternoon, small interest today..........Main bet have 'Big' hopes 👍

ches 1.35          Exigency  6/1              Carlton and Co    15/2 EW                Hoof it Hoof it  12/1 EW      4th             4 places

Don 1.50           War Rooms  2/1               Gushing Gold  10/1 EW   2nd  11/1             Kingdom of Riches    10/1 EW 

Don 2.35           Big Evs  5/2     WON  (Main bet 🏆 )                      Graceful Thunder  12/1  EW      

Sand 2.40         Devils Angel  5/1                Impeach 22/1 EW                     Recon Mission   14/1 EW           

Ches 2.45         Glendown 8/1 EW     WON              Sugarhill Babe  18/1 EW               4 places

Ball 3.05           An Braden Feasa  10/3    WON              Expelliarmus     5/2  

Ches 3.20         Two Auld pals  7/2                  Baez    7/2     WON 

 

              4 WINS 🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆  and 2 EW places so that will do nicely 😎 💷 ........steady start then 4 wins.

Brilliant stuff Brahmin I ought to have followed you today!!! I did do hoof it hoof it .

[ivans82]

Big Warning today , seems like Baldings older horses have had enough , Favourites Coltrane and The Goat both beaten hands down with no excuses on ground and distance , will steer clear of his horses from now on .Not the first of His fancied older horses to run like drains this week .

[Brahmin]

@Sporting Sam ............we just hitting the crossbar at the moment in selecting for the Daily Naps, had two 2nds ( and again today ) while our other selections last 3 days have  won 😲.....soooo in 'real money' have done ok, just a shame for the league table! 

 Thanks yes had nice day today and Birthday Lady home later for her glass white wine  / evening meal cooked by 'man chef' 😂....also had a read of thread and you hit yday i see so well done and great stuff....when you 'hot' you have a run dont you, sooo we will im sure benefit from your tips again soon im sure 👍........enjoy your weekend, we did last weekend at Ascot races 🐎 on Friday and then weekend in Ascot staying with friends for Birthday weekend lady 💃......

ps....will be looking to see what advice Brigadier / Richard W / Zilzalian / Black rabbit and few other knowledgeable shrewdies have said for weekend racing 🤞  

Edited September 15, 2023 by Brahmin

[Sporting Sam]

One more then off to dig up some spuds at the allotment. Oh and that parking fine of £60 I was groaning about was rescinded back in July on appeal. ( stayed calm and polite and said “I know you have a job to do, but I did have a reason for parking an inch over the white line” ) all on bodycam and when I appealed they  watched the video and duly threw the ticket out. 

Doncaster 4:45

Lethal nymph

each way

gets this on the draw data but has the form to match hasn’t won in a good while but  a course winner  and beat Aphellios in a class two off two pounds higher and Micheal Appleby’s runner back in form with a win and place latest.

Baradar

win

course and distance winner on heavy and a good place on previous visit. Hit the heights at Ascot when last seen and could follow big Evs here.

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

445 donc 

Baradar. 8.7  7/2 

Persuasion. 8.5. 11/2 

Raatea. 8.2 

5pt wins top 2 

Baradar wins ...and raatea placed at 20/1 ... @Zilzalian

[Sporting Sam]

Thats better as draw data brings home the first two with baradar and lethal nymph do the hard yards to keep my spuds intact.

ballinrobe 5:25

hazelhatch lady

win

won last two over hurdles and comes here in good order for fences.

Gordon Elliott has course winner

 Townhill Penny 

each way

well treated and primed to run well here under Jordan Gainford. A winning pointer for fences should be second nature. A winner over the course at hurdles.