Racing chat-saturday 16th sept

[richard-westwood]

Portland hcap 

Vintage clarets. 8.8 28/1 

Badri 8.6. 14/1 

Existent 8.6  22/1 

Impossibly difficult race and with ground soft even more so as many haven't seen that all summer ....I've rated on soft and prices are 6places bet365 ...so I'll try 4pt Ew all 3 and hope for a bit of luck 🤞

[Tedthewolf]

Portland 

if the ground stays soft and doesn't dry out to much i give HURRICANE IVOR a really big chance off a nice weight won this before  off a lot higher i can not understand the 20/1 on offer at corals  i am well in there crazy price imho or am i missing something?

3pts e/w HURRICANE IVOR 20/1 bog 5 places

6pts invested

Edited September 15, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[Tedthewolf]

23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Portland hcap 

Vintage clarets. 8.8 28/1 

Badri 8.6. 14/1 

Existent 8.6  22/1 

Impossibly difficult race and with ground soft even more so as many haven't seen that all summer ....I've rated on soft and prices are 6places bet365 ...so I'll try 4pt Ew all 3 and hope for a bit of luck 🤞

Where did Hurricane Ivor rate Rich?

 

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

Where did Hurricane Ivor rate Rich?

 

He's about 9th ....but that's because he's not really done much recently but would have a good chance on old form 5 or 6 runs back ....at the moment he's running around 12lb behind his best 

[black rabbit]

The Big Board                                                       2 25 Dny/               1/40th of a pt ew    33/1

hurrican Ivor                                                         2 25 dny/                1/40th of a pt ew   20/1

Belhaven                                                               2 40 Chs/                 1/40 th of a pt ew  16/1

Regal Envoy                                                          4 00 Bth/                 1/40th of a pt ew    25/1       - 3rd

Brunch                                                                   5 20 Dny/                1/40th of a pt ew   18/1

 

 

P/L  + 171.30 pts

Edited September 16, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[richard-westwood]

On 9/14/2023 at 12:02 PM, richard-westwood said:

Portland hcap 

Vintage clarets. 8.8 28/1 

Badri 8.6. 14/1 

Existent 8.6  22/1 

Impossibly difficult race and with ground soft even more so as many haven't seen that all summer ....I've rated on soft and prices are 6places bet365 ...so I'll try 4pt Ew all 3 and hope for a bit of luck 🤞

Added forecasts too ....rating are due a biggy soon lol 😆

[richard-westwood]

520 donc 

Sonny Liston. 8.6 9/2 

Dutch decoy.  8.6 10/1 

Liberty lane.  8.1 

Joint top here ... .I'm not a fan of Clifford lee on liberty lane I think he's a bit poor  ....so that strengthens the top 2 in my eyes ...

10pt win top 2 

[Tedthewolf]

6 hours ago, black rabbit said:

The Big Board                                                       2 25 Dny/               1/40th of a pt ew    33/1

hurrican Ivor                                                         2 25 dny/                1/40th of a pt ew   20/1

Did you get a word for the Hurrican mate?

[black rabbit]

57 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Did you get a word for the Hurrican mate?

well like yerself i think he's got a shout on his previous + droped to a mark of 92 and for what its

worth im told he's been working very well recently  👍

[Zilzalian]

11 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Portland 

if the ground stays soft and doesn't dry out to much i give HURRICANE IVOR a really big chance off a nice weight won this before  off a lot higher i can not understand the 20/1 on offer at corals  i am well in there crazy price imho or am i missing something?

3pts e/w HURRICANE IVOR 20/1 bog 5 places

6pts invested

i also rate ivor for what its worth. Its 20/1 simply because its ran like a pig a few times tho significant that it was pulled out lto maybe for this as a better option

[MCLARKE]

Stats for the Portland based on the last 9 years.

The forecast odds have been a good guide with those below 12/1 returning 6 winners from 26 runners with a profit of 36 points at BSP. The remainder have 3 wins from 155 runs with a loss of 79 points.

Horses that finished in the 1st 3 last time have recorded 6 wins from 60 runs with a profit of 22 points.

Claiming jockeys have a decent record with 3 wins from 24 runs and a profit of 16 points.

This leaves Call Me Ginger, available at 7/1, 6 places.

 

[MCLARKE]

Stats for the St Leger

Horses that last ran between 59 and 77 days ago have recorded 5 wins from just 9 runs with a profit of 55 points. The remainder have 4 wins from 80 runs with a loss of 65 points.

Horses drawn 1 to 3 have 0 wins from 26 attempts.

Fillies have a record of 0 from 7 runs.

This leaves Tower Of London, available at 17/2.

[kensland]

Chantilly. 

Singles 

2.50. Dark Charger      7/2       1st 

stk 5.00   rtn 22.50.

Lingfield. 

5.30. Kehiani      9/2

stk 5.00   rtn 27.00

Good luck all 

 

 

 

Edited September 16, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Portland. 

2.25. Dusky Lord     20/1      /     Badri     18/1.

 Bth    £2   ew.

Good luck all. 

[White Feather]

Hearts Are Trumps 2:45 Navan - 16/1 bet 365 bog - 4 places

More suited over hurdles and jockey Aine O'Connor has ridden the winner of two of the last three renewals.

[azzybear]

toto top 1.35 

[azzybear]

too 

[azzybear]

blue color 2.15 

[calva decoy]

On 9/14/2023 at 12:02 PM, richard-westwood said:

Portland hcap 

Vintage clarets. 8.8 28/1 

Badri 8.6. 14/1 

Existent 8.6  22/1 

Impossibly difficult race and with ground soft even more so as many haven't seen that all summer ....I've rated on soft and prices are 6places bet365 ...so I'll try 4pt Ew all 3 and hope for a bit of luck 🤞

Only bet I've had today as am at the football is CHIPSTEAD 11/1 eway ( 6 places ) bet365 , narrow loss in this race last year , a little high in the weights for the win but should get a good run for money .

[richard-westwood]

24 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Only bet I've had today as am at the football is CHIPSTEAD 11/1 eway ( 6 places ) bet365 , narrow loss in this race last year , a little high in the weights for the win but should get a good run for money .

He won last year ? ...and horses do win twice 😭....good luck 🤞

[The Equaliser]

B/fwd RC MTD -14.85, YTD -47.95

Not much time today again

Had 2 pts on an L15 & Acca on the Daily

2.25 Don Call Me Ginger 2 pts win at 9.8.  For fun, Vintage Clarets 25/1, Badri 22/1, Existent 18/1 and Makanah all 0.50 ew for 6 p

2.40 Ches Baryshnikov and First Impression 1 pt win each at 6.2

3.35 Don Tower of London 1 pt win at 15/2

I have backed Sony Liston and Dutch Decoy in the 5.20 at Donny but won't list them here as I regard this as the main @richard-westwood bet

Total stakes = 11 points

 

[Sporting Sam]

Musselburgh 3:42

victory house 

To place three places @ 6/5

interesting one here.

headgear removed for first time since debut in class four when a beaten favourite. Has indicated a preference for a mile. Stable switcher and retains jockey and owner. Not rated to finish in front of three of these. Suspicion remains off a stone less than those mentioned that yard aren’t making this trip out of the goodness of their hearts. Unlikely winner but will show better than before.

[Sporting Sam]

Navan 1:35

 

Faux Fur

Each way

Nice price for an Elliot runner. Placed in two bumpers and jack Kennedy up for first time. May be seen in better light in handicaps but at the price and jockey booking worth a tickle.

Toto too

win

hard to oppose and looks the class horse here.

[ivans82]

Rosallion .......another talking horse put back in it`s  box .Sean Levey yesterday saying it was the best 2 year old he`s sat on . Massive drifter all morning , everyone new . Adele Mulrennan said pre-race She didn`t like the way it moved on the soft ground and therefore didn`t fancy it . Pity the stable couldn`t see this after all they only see it every day .

[Sporting Sam]

Navan 2:10

third in a grade 2 behind 140s rated runners puts Gordon Elliott’s

AMIR KABIR

win

in a very good light in this novice hurdle. Rated 135 ought to be good enough to take this race. A winner at listowel prior to elevations and back from a break with a good loosener on the flat last month.

[Sporting Sam]

Navan 2:45

Hearts are trumps

each way

Miss A.B. Connor has won this race twice in recent years. Looks to have found a willing partner here from 

JP McManus and horse was winning a graded race off 131 two years ago. 
PRO BONO

Win

only a few runs and won maiden hurdle three runs ago and won on the flat latest and in between has made handicap debut off this mark.

 

[Zilzalian]

352 chester speed figures suggest barnwell boy is the wrong price followed by ganesha and leaves of grass

[Sporting Sam]

Chester 2:40

southern voyage 

each way

prolific win rate and of high interest on stable debut after a year off.

first impression

win

course winner 

up in grade and capable 

Edited September 16, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[richard-westwood]

On 9/14/2023 at 12:02 PM, richard-westwood said:

Portland hcap 

Vintage clarets. 8.8 28/1 

Badri 8.6. 14/1 

Existent 8.6  22/1 

Impossibly difficult race and with ground soft even more so as many haven't seen that all summer ....I've rated on soft and prices are 6places bet365 ...so I'll try 4pt Ew all 3 and hope for a bit of luck 🤞

Vintage Ew ...probably broke even so fight another day 

[Sporting Sam]

Doncaster 3:00

Spycatcher 

win

well drawn and should enjoy this test having gone well in France in group 1