Racing chat-saturday 12th Aug

[harry_rag]

24 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I don't recall saying anything about dodgy jockeys or trainers at these events.

By way of a top tip on adding formatting to a partial quote I don't think he was suggesting that you made such a comment about that type of event so much as racing generally. I have no idea whether that's a fair comment so feel free to refute yet again but I think the meaning was pretty clear.

44 minutes ago, LeMale said:

I hear punters complain (and you yourself) about dodgy trainers and jockeys not giving their all in certain handicaps

I love the notion of that being a subtle dig implying you're not a punter but sometimes I tend to overthink what people mean! 

[LeMale]

3 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

 

I love the notion of that being a subtle dig implying you're not a punter but sometimes I tend to overthink what people mean! 

Sorry "H" i think i'm having a moment...What? Yes, i bet on horses (makes me a punter) What are you overthinking?

[harry_rag]

22 minutes ago, LeMale said:

Sorry "H" i think i'm having a moment...What? Yes, i bet on horses (makes me a punter) What are you overthinking?

Sorry, I confused things by quoting two different people. I’m assuming it’s not what you meant but it amused me that you could read the reference to “punters and you” as implying that you don’t regard Mr E as a punter. It would have been a delightfully waspish putdown if it was what you meant.

For the avoidance of doubt I’m not casting aspersions on anyone’s status as a punter, I just enjoyed the potential interpretation of the comment.

[LeMale]

1 minute ago, harry_rag said:

Sorry, I confused things by quoting two different people. I’m assuming it’s not what you meant but it amused me that you could read the reference to “punters and you” as implying that you don’t regard Mr E as a punter. It would have been a delightfully waspish putdown if it was what you meant.

For the avoidance of doubt I’m not casting aspersions on anyone’s status as a punter, I just enjoyed the potential interpretation of the comment.

Haha, no i'm not that devious (or clever) as proved by not understanding what you were getting at. I'm all for a bit of banter and rib-sticking, but i find it hard to do it on here where i don't actually know people, some might take offence or class it as cyber-bullying (if i've used that right) So no "putdown" was intended and thanks for explaining. 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, LeMale said:

Don't know what to make of that... So i'll assume you have mis-understood. 

I haven't misunderstood.  I reckon there is a lot of race-fixing going on everywhere.  It has to be that way or all the bookies would be broke.  🙂

[harry_rag]

7 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I haven't misunderstood.  I reckon there is a lot of race-fixing going on everywhere.  It has to be that way or all the bookies would be broke.  🙂

Genuinely confused by that but happy to acknowledge I’m not much of a racing punter. I’d have thought that most of the “fixing” or sleight of hand being carried out was being done with a view to getting one over on the bookies or the rest of the punting community.

I’m not sure that it’s such shenanigans as that which prevents you or me from making a profit on the gee gees and putting Fred, Paddy, Vic and co out of business.

[The Equaliser]

35 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Sorry, I confused things by quoting two different people. I’m assuming it’s not what you meant but it amused me that you could read the reference to “punters and you” as implying that you don’t regard Mr E as a punter. It would have been a delightfully waspish putdown if it was what you meant.

 

Haha, after recording and posting up all my results over the past four years I find it highly amusing to find that I could be considered not to be a punter.  I thought I had the accolade for being PL's Mug Punter of the Year for three years on the trot.

[The Equaliser]

1 minute ago, harry_rag said:

Genuinely confused by that but happy to acknowledge I’m not much of a racing punter. I’d have thought that most of the “fixing” or sleight of hand being carried out was being done with a view to getting one over on the bookies or the rest of the punting community.

I reckon that I should have one of my L15's in future based upon what should not happen.  e.g. the second string horse winning or the longest-priced selection of the top jockeys rides etc.

Ps I'm getting better at sighting the "quote" bits now.  Many thanks

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, The Equaliser said:

I reckon that I should have one of my L15's in future based upon what should not happen.  e.g. the second string horse winning or the longest-priced selection of the top jockeys rides etc.

Ps I'm getting better at sighting the "quote" bits now.  Many thanks

I get you; I’m sure some of that is entirely random but I certainly wouldn’t suggest the game is entirely straight or, at least, that everything is being done in plain sight. Maybe there genuinely might be an angle in finding some trainers who have a better record with their “second best” selections than their more favoured ones. Not sure if that can be gleaned from the data available to you guys.

[Sporting Sam]

Ayr 8.07

cuban rock

each way

[Zilzalian]

9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I haven't misunderstood.  I reckon there is a lot of race-fixing going on everywhere.  It has to be that way or all the bookies would be broke.  🙂

So begs the question why do you bet on handicaps? I agree with @LeMale there seems to be a bit more effort in this and racing league, your comments show a naivety in betting on horses because you may call it race fixing but if you had a "moderate"horse and it won 5 on the bounce it probably wouldn't win again for the rest of its career it would be that high in the handicap so what do you actually expect owners/trainers to do? no one i fixing the race they are manipulating the handicap because they have no choice. knowing about the handicap system is in itself a tool. Every one of us has said "that was dodgy or that wasn't right" knowing full well that we were probably right and yes it is annoying but that's the added risk of betting in handicaps. if everything was dead straight would all the favs win? the only "accurate" racing from a punters point are the pattern races. Stop blaming everything else if your selection doesn't win just move on to the next selection or pack up and go home there is always tomorrow. the only punter that doesn't think a particular race is fixed is the one on the winner all the punters on the losers have all been had over if you believe the noise.

[The Equaliser]

19 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

So begs the question why do you bet on handicaps? I agree with @LeMale there seems to be a bit more effort in this and racing league, your comments show a naivety in betting on horses because you may call it race fixing but if you had a "moderate"horse and it won 5 on the bounce it probably wouldn't win again for the rest of its career it would be that high in the handicap so what do you actually expect owners/trainers to do? no one i fixing the race they are manipulating the handicap because they have no choice. knowing about the handicap system is in itself a tool. Every one of us has said "that was dodgy or that wasn't right" knowing full well that we were probably right and yes it is annoying but that's the added risk of betting in handicaps. if everything was dead straight would all the favs win? the only "accurate" racing from a punters point are the pattern races. Stop blaming everything else if your selection doesn't win just move on to the next selection or pack up and go home there is always tomorrow. the only punter that doesn't think a particular race is fixed is the one on the winner all the punters on the losers have all been had over if you believe the noise.

You call it "manipulating the handicap" and I call it race fixing, so what!  The punter very often doesn't get a run for his money when all the form lines suggest that he should.  I am not moaning about it at all.  Like I said to Harry @harry_rag I will embrace it

[Sporting Sam]

8:37 AYR

Cabinet maker 

each way

& EL ROYALE

win

both have good claims here.

the top weights get this on traverse law and free energy.

El Royale in stall 4

win

the maiden hits the button on several points.

draw data from last year.

4:33

trainers only runner here and a good winner with blind beggar yesterday 

*****************************
the grand visir 3rd

silent film 4th

were the each way successes 

along with 100/30 winner 

Cabinet Maker at Ayr

 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

You call it "manipulating the handicap" and I call it race fixing, so what!  The punter very often doesn't get a run for his money when all the form lines suggest that he should.  I am not moaning about it at all.  Like I said to Harry @harry_rag I will embrace it

Race fixing is a totally different action 1 horse can't fix a race nor can one trainer, in a 10 horse race 9 horses would have to be stopped (fixed) to fix a race. handicapping lends itself to cheating not race fixing, know the difference.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Race fixing is a totally different action 1 horse can't fix a race nor can one trainer, in a 10 horse race 9 horses would have to be stopped (fixed) to fix a race. handicapping lends itself to cheating not race fixing, know the difference.

What I meant was that horses are being entered into races by trainers knowing full well that they are going to underperform despite them looking to be the best-form horse in the race.  If the @Zilzalian formal racing terminology dictates that I should call it "race cheating" then so be it.  No doubt you will criticise me down the line for saying "race cheating" at some time in the future.

[Sporting Sam]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

What I meant was that horses are being entered into races by trainers knowing full well that they are going to underperform despite them looking to be the best-form horse in the race.  If the @Zilzalian formal racing terminology dictates that I should call it "race cheating" then so be it.  No doubt you will criticise me down the line for saying "race cheating" at some time in the future.

Interesting conversation.

wether by design or other wise a horse not run on its merits in a race of any kind will have a dramatic influence on the outcome of a race. It will benefit some runners and severely disadvantage others. You could liken it to ballistics if you like as horses have a draw, a weight and an ability to run to. In flat racing they are compelled to run out of a stall in a straight line , up a straight or turning track with a confirmed bias all carrying different weights and abilities. 
Some trainers have extremely “good” knowledge of how the physics work and place their horses accordingly. I know of one in particular and I watch him very closely.

[ivans82]

Sir Mark Prescott will often run his 2 year olds 3 times over 5 furlong trips  .They are usually bred for 10f plus so consequently hardly ever get placed .Gets them a handicap mark for when they run up a sequence in 3 year old handicaps . Plenty of 7f races for 2 year olds which would be more suitable for these horses but thinks long term . Smart planning ? Cheating the system?  which is it ?

[The Equaliser]

52 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:

Some trainers have extremely “good” knowledge of how the physics work and place their horses accordingly. I know of one in particular and I watch him very closely.

Many thanks for your thoughts. I'm sure many of us are intrigued to know the name of the trainer who knows how physics works in horse racing

[The Equaliser]

54 minutes ago, ivans82 said:

Sir Mark Prescott will often run his 2 year olds 3 times over 5 furlong trips  .They are usually bred for 10f plus so consequently hardly ever get placed .Gets them a handicap mark for when they run up a sequence in 3 year old handicaps . Plenty of 7f races for 2 year olds which would be more suitable for these horses but thinks long term . Smart planning ? Cheating the system?  which is it ?

In this scenario, it looks like smart planning.  What I find distasteful is when an in-form horse runs very badly.  You will often read in the RP results summary comments such as "the trainers rep could often no explanation for the horse's poor performance" John Francombe once said that the general public doesn't know how difficult it is getting a horse to a race course let alone getting it to win. If a trainer has a good idea that his horse will not perform to its best on race day, I feel, that he should take it out of the race and not let it run.

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

In this scenario, it looks like smart planning.  What I find distasteful is when an in-form horse runs very badly.  You will often read in the RP results summary comments such as "the trainers rep could often no explanation for the horse's poor performance" John Francombe once said that the general public doesn't know how difficult it is getting a horse to a race course let alone getting it to win. If a trainer has a good idea that his horse will not perform to its best on race day, I feel, that he should take it out of the race and not let it run.

Horses are not machines. Like us they have off days. In addition conditions will change from one race to another and the horse may or may not like these conditions. To assume every time a horse doesn't perform as expected that there is cheating going on is incorrect. Remember that if the odds are above evens then the horse is not expected to win.

[LeMale]

19 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

So begs the question why do you bet on handicaps? I agree with @LeMale there seems to be a bit more effort in this and racing league, your comments show a naivety in betting on horses because you may call it race fixing but if you had a "moderate"horse and it won 5 on the bounce it probably wouldn't win again for the rest of its career it would be that high in the handicap so what do you actually expect owners/trainers to do? no one i fixing the race they are manipulating the handicap because they have no choice. knowing about the handicap system is in itself a tool. Every one of us has said "that was dodgy or that wasn't right" knowing full well that we were probably right and yes it is annoying but that's the added risk of betting in handicaps. if everything was dead straight would all the favs win? the only "accurate" racing from a punters point are the pattern races. Stop blaming everything else if your selection doesn't win just move on to the next selection or pack up and go home there is always tomorrow. the only punter that doesn't think a particular race is fixed is the one on the winner all the punters on the losers have all been had over if you believe the noise.

Thanks, you explained some of my points far better (and in far less time) than i could have done. 

[LeMale]

19 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I haven't misunderstood.  I reckon there is a lot of race-fixing going on everywhere.  It has to be that way or all the bookies would be broke.  🙂

You have mis-understood. You and some others have been saying the Racing League is crap (and yesterday you said the same about the Shergar Comp) comps for the benefit of the bookies. Just to make it clear, i'm not digging you out, (or any one else) you are very opinionated and are entitled to your opinion, if you think it's crap, fair enough. The point i was making, that i believe you have not understood, is of course there are trainers (to use @Zilzalian's best described terminology) "Manipulating The Handicap", John Gosden said it on live tv, and ALL punters know this (including you - That's for you @harry_rag) no matter what you call it. I didn't say you said these things about Racing League and alike, but on handicap racing in general (as you quoted about a Tim Easterby horse ridden by David Allen - and yes, betting on that trainer/jockey you really were asking for trouble) and the point i was making was, that doesn't happen in these team events. The trainer/owner offers a "team" a horse and expects it to be ridden to try and win and the jockey will try his/her best to win and will not ease a horse down, because they will lose their team points, (and is better for ew bets) no "manipulation". You have races where all horses will be running at their best, or the best they can give that day. (as @MCLARKE say's, they're not machines, they could be unwell and nobody would really know) So imo you have a non-bent race, all you have to do is pick what YOU think is the BEST horse in the race using they're rating, conditions and trip, and anything else that matters. Yes, you still might not win, but if you've chosen wisely, you should get a good, honest run for your money and that's what we all want, don't we? I know you like a challenge, so here's mine to you. Next Racing League meeting, forget all other meetings that day and just put all your effort and time into those races and see how you get on. (you don't have to post on here, you don't even have to bet on them if you're so against it, but i would be interested to see how you get on) 

Anyway, i still probably haven't explained myself very well, but hope you take on the challenge, good luck what ever you do. (hope you take no offence to anything i've said, it wasn't my intention) 

[ivans82]

On 8/12/2023 at 4:52 PM, LeMale said:

I was asking the same question...about Hayley Turner! Some "Team-mate" just let her out. 0 points and the weakest link in that team and luckily for her she has two "Winners" as her team-mates. 

Have a look at the 320 at ascot again . Joao Moreira rode Fox Tal to the front , went clear , looked nice and compact , in rhythm with the horse.......Thore Hammer Hansen on Perotto went after it and won . Far stronger in the finish , it`s as if Joao Moreira either dropped his whip , didn`t know where the winning post is , or simply didn`t see him coming .

[LeMale]

15 minutes ago, ivans82 said:

Have a look at the 320 at ascot again . Joao Moreira rode Fox Tal to the front , went clear , looked nice and compact , in rhythm with the horse.......Thore Hammer Hansen on Perotto went after it and won . Far stronger in the finish , it`s as if Joao Moreira either dropped his whip , didn`t know where the winning post is , or simply didn`t see him coming .

Yea, strange. Couple of whips at the furlong marker and imo thought he'd passed the post, but wasn't riding hard last 100 yards. (different race to the quote though)

[Zilzalian]

17 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

What I meant was that horses are being entered into races by trainers knowing full well that they are going to underperform despite them looking to be the best-form horse in the race.  If the @Zilzalian formal racing terminology dictates that I should call it "race cheating" then so be it.  No doubt you will criticise me down the line for saying "race cheating" at some time in the future.

Nowt do wi formal racin terminology lad, if you are going to disparage someone/something better to be accurate with your accusations, i had to explain to you twice the difference between fixing and "cheating/manipulation". as for the physics involved in horse racing it is all out there, many studies. Nick Mordin used to quote the studies often in a few systems most of them done by Americans one Dr Steve Roman is a name that springs to mind but not 100% sure he was the "physics" man i know he was the one that came up with the dosage index regarding breeding. Btw "if what you meant was" then say what you mean in the first place.

[Zilzalian]

30 minutes ago, LeMale said:

Yea, strange. Couple of whips at the furlong marker and imo thought he'd passed the post, but wasn't riding hard last 100 yards. (different race to the quote though)

I reckon they are scared to death at getting a 20 day ban so who can blame them? Typically the authorities have created a new problem for everyone where non really existed before.

[LeMale]

8 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I reckon they are scared to death at getting a 20 day ban so who can blame them? Typically the authorities have created a new problem for everyone where non really existed before.

Agreed. (and don't forget the fine) Having limitations and asking jockeys to basically keep count, is stupidity, they have enough to worry about already.  Whip or no whip, there should be no limits. (God, i sound like a cross between Yoda and 2Unlimited) 

Just out of curiousity, have they ever had a horse race where jockeys carried no whip? 

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, LeMale said:

Agreed. (and don't forget the fine) Having limitations and asking jockeys to basically keep count, is stupidity, they have enough to worry about already.  Whip or no whip, there should be no limits. (God, i sound like a cross between Yoda and 2Unlimited) 

Just out of curiousity, have they ever had a horse race where jockeys carried no whip? 

there was a big debate once if i remember correctly and it was rejected on the grounds that the whip was also a steering mechanism as well as a teaching tool. there have been a few races where just hands and heels is tried.

[Tedthewolf]

40 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

there was a big debate once if i remember correctly and it was rejected on the grounds that the whip was also a steering mechanism as well as a teaching tool. there have been a few races where just hands and heels is tried.

Yeah a few   years ago they  had a hands and heels series for apprentices vaguely  remember them.

https://www.britishhorseracing.com/press_releases/hands-heels-apprentice-series/

Edited August 13, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[Tedthewolf]

https://www.racingtv.com/videos/watch/horse_racing_replays/132757-hands-and-heels-apprentice-series-handicap