Racing Chat - Thursday 3rd August

[The Brigadier]

Day Three of Glorious Goodwood although with the weather forecast it hardly looks Glorious! Today’s feature race is the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes over 10F for fillies and mares and is run at 15:35.

ITV are again showing the first four races from the meeting and here are my thoughts and selections to help us beat the bookies again today.

 

Goodwood 13:50

A cracking eighteen runner class 2 three year old’s only handicap kicks us off today which will be run over 10F.

Current favourite is the Sir Michael Stoute trained Perfuse who has already shown his liking for very soft ground when winning his maiden at Nottingham on officially heavy ground. He was better than his finishing position of fifth when beaten 6L by Desert Hero in the King George V Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot and will appreciate dropping back to 10F here. With Ryan Moore on board, a favourable draw in stall seven and the ground in his favour he’s the main bet.

Its double figure prices all the others with soft ground loving Royal Rhyme likely to run a big race. Kevin Ryan’s Lope De Vega colt is two from two on soft ground including when running out a 5L winner at Newmarket in May. Back on soft ground he can be competitive from stall 2 and appeals each way with additional places.

The Richard Fahey trained Have Secret is another with winning soft ground form and at a nice price could be involved in the finish having finished fourth in two of the summers better 3-year-old middle distance handicaps.

Others worth a mention are the handicap debutant of William Haggas’s Garden Route but he’s untested on a soft surface whilst the same can be said about Andrew Balding’s Alsakib who’s won his last two races.

Andrew Balding also saddles Goldsborough who’s already won here and on heavy ground so on this handicap debutant is an interesting runner at a very big price especially if the ground rides very soft.

Perfuse is a strong fancy and is the main play here although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Have Secret from stall one.

 

PERFUSE 3 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

HAVE SECRET 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Goodwood 14:25

With the defection of a couple here we have ten two year olds going to post here for this 6F Group 2 Richmond Stakes where there is very little previous soft ground form.

Simon & Ed Crisford's runner Vandeek made a remarkable winning debut at Nottingham a fortnight ago when falling out of the stalls, losing some 10 lengths but ran on like a smart horse to win going away by 3/4L at the end. That was on good to soft ground so he may well be less inconvenienced by the ground conditions than most. He looks the one to beat with the Irish runner Unquestionable now a non runner.

The other runner at the head of the market is Clive Cox’s Jasour who ran out a 2L winner of the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket three weeks ago at the July Meeting but has to shoulder a 3lb penalty here and has only run on fast ground (he was pulled out on his debut run at Newmarket in May due to soft ground) so may well struggle on the prevailing ground.

Sketch looked good on his debut twelve days when winning by 5L at Newbury and is another who could be prominent if handing the ground.

It’s Vandeek for me to prove his debut win was no flash in the pan.

VANDEEK 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Goodwood 15:00

Just the six have declared for this St Leger trial, the John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes, a Group 3 contest run over 12F for three year olds only.

Four of the sextet are proven on soft ground with the duo who which aren’t being Burdett Road who also has plenty on and Canberra Legend and that pair are first two to be dismissed.

Chesspiece looked good up at Hamilton a fortnight ago winning the Glasgow Stakes when making all and could well attempt similar tactics here today for father and son duo Simon & Ed Crisford.

William Haggas’s Desert Hero is taking a step up in class having won a valuable handicap at Royal Ascot and has won on soft and heavy ground so will handle conditions better than most whilst Ralph Beckett’s Artistic Star was a two year old maiden winner on soft ground and having finished 7th in the Derby ran third to King Of Steel at Royal Ascot.

The one i like though is the Aiden O’Brien runner Espionage who is the highest rated of the sextet and has the services of Ryan Moore. A runner up (beaten a head) on heavy ground in a Group 1 as a juvenile he made a winning re-appearance in listed company at Roscommon a month ago and can take this en route to a tilt at the St Leger which he is currently a top priced 8/1 chance.

I’ll be backing him for today’s race and is also worth chancing ante-post for the St Leger run at Doncaster in September.

 

ESPIONAGE 2 points win @ 15/8 bet365

ESPIONAGE (St Leger) 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5 123

 

Goodwood 15:35

Just the six line up here for the day’s feature race, the 10f Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes for three year olds and upwards fillies and mares.

It’s a fascinating match up with the top French three year old against the best of her elders of her own sex.

Blue Rose Cen is a very smart filly trained by Christopher Head who trains in France. She has won the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks this season in good style, winning the latter by 4L under Aurelian Lemaire who is in the saddle today. She has plenty of form on soft and even heavy ground so conditions will hold no fears for the French challenger.

She is however rated 2lb inferior to last year’s winner, the John & Thady Gosden trained Nashwa who found her form in no uncertain manner when bolting up in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting last month coming home 5L to the good from Remarquee. She too has form on very soft ground so conditions shouldn’t hinder her too much. It’s a fascinating match up and I fully expect them to fight out the finish. At the respective prices I’ll have to go with Hollie Doyle and Nashwa but it will be no shock if the French filly wins.

Roger Varian’s Al Husn actually beat Nashwa at Newcastle on the all-weather track back in June but she’s not certain to be as suited by wet turf and I expect Nashwa to turn the tables here today.

Aiden O’Brien’s Never Ending Story is held by Nashwa on Newmarket form and this is a race to watch and savour with my selection being Nashwa.

 

NASHWA 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365

 

All odds were available at time of writing

 

[Zilzalian]

My stakes are now going to be at 25% for the rest of Goodwood this ground is nigh on impossible to work with....