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Racing Chat - Thursday 27th July


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1 hour ago, Brahmin said:

My interest will be Irish racing this evening at leopardstown and NOT the tv at yarmouth 😎 ............even tho Ryan / o'brien already has 2 NRs, had 3/1 on 3 winners for them tonite 🤑 ........also J Doyle /  T marqaund @ 5/1 wins at Doncaster 

half way to other one as well now 👍 J Doyle..............4.30pm T Marquand had win so 5/1 comes in 🏆

 

don 3.40 small interest .....User Amistiso 9/1 EW   2nd    &    Novello lad   12/1 EW     &     Dream selection 150 /1 EW         3 places

😎 Brilliant start as 'Brilliant' wins first race at Leop for my 3 wins bet off to nice start 

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2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Have posted up a L15 on the daily for 2 points

3.50 San Another Run (OM) 1 pt win at 9/1

so far 3 points

No luck so far.  I got put off a Paul Mulrenan winner in the 2.30 at Donny because of an RP write up "Be Proud 3lb higher than for latest success, but is 0-43 over 6f-plus and has never backed up a win"  Won at 7/2 by half a length.

I have posted up another L15 and Acca for 2 pts on the daily with a possible return of 472.22.

Never had so much fun.  Total points = 5 so far.

@sporting sam is welcome to the Racing League meeting at Yarmouth these are usually bookie benefit meetings.  He is going to need all his physics mastery to get winners here, but very good luck to him and @yossa6133 if he follows him in .

 

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7 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

No luck so far.  I got put off a Paul Mulrenan winner in the 2.30 at Donny because of an RP write up "Be Proud 3lb higher than for latest success, but is 0-43 over 6f-plus and has never backed up a win"  Won at 7/2 by half a length.

I have posted up another L15 and Acca for 2 pts on the daily with a possible return of 472.22.

Never had so much fun.  Total points = 5 so far.

@sporting sam is welcome to the Racing League meeting at Yarmouth these are usually bookie benefit meetings.  He is going to need all his physics mastery to get winners here, but very good luck to him and @yossa6133 if he follows him in .

 

Fully in agreement with you but my experience of these racing meetings is that there is an angle to exploit as horses are dropped into these races to take advantage of not everyone bring here to win. Joseph and Donnacha O’Brien took great advantage of this last year. My advice is check the results and habits  formed for future meetings.

Edited by sporting sam
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31 minutes ago, Brahmin said:

😎 Brilliant start as 'Brilliant' wins first race at Leop for my 3 wins bet off to nice start 

2 races and 2 wins for my Ryan / O'Brien  treble 👍........as we switch off ITV and 'bookie racing' at Yarmouth 📺

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oh my god, am i eating humble pie from 'lady in pink' ( or carrot cake 🍰 😂 )  from earlier on still.......not only increase stake 'by mistake' for 6/4 'sporting sam' winner 👍

I did 2 EW in Don 5.20 which came 4th and nowhere, BUT 'we' did 3rd EW on female advice at 11/1 Temper Trap for Easterby which just won 🏆 soooo feeling humble now yet again 😂  

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'' even tho Ryan / o'brien already has 2 NRs, had 3/1 on 3 winners for them tonite 🤑 ........''

 

🏆 everything winning at moment for 'us' 😎.........3/1 treble wins in the first 3 races 👍 .......sooo a bonus as thought might take the whole evening card!

Mrs just said after seeing that, well its an M&S or Waitrose food shop for few nice bits tomorrow aft then for the weekend  😱......my whats wrong with Aldi or Lidl  got a 'look' 😂

 

Edited by Brahmin
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Limerick 1805

mistys gift was never going to win against the excellent kinbara  last time ( and anyone taking my advice, collected on the distance bet for kinbara)

and fell under sustained pressure when staying on at the last. The trajectory of his previous three runs 4/3/2 says the gelding is due to win today and is a confident choice to go one better now.

already a two time bumper winner and will not get a better chance to win a hurdle.
 

MISTY’S GIFT

win

Edited by sporting sam
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Limerick 7:05

C'EST QUELQU'UN  

Win 

great run on debut behind subsequent next time out winner who is now rated 122. Jack Kennedy takes the ride rather than other jockey who doesn’t win his races.

 

Inchadally Copper

each way

not seen for over a year but comes here on a five timer and can pick up the slack if Gordon Elliott runner doesn’t go forward.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by sporting sam
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Limerick 8:05

Wolfhill

each way

out of grade two winner interesting on debut for Micheal Bowe.  Good claiming apprentice on board and as usual the Mullins horse concedes upwards of a stone in real terms to the entire field and is no sure fire winner despite huge physical advantage.

I can understand training the horse to concede these weights, but I cannot understand why he’d race his horses without the weight dispensation everyone else utilises.

 

Edited by sporting sam
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1 hour ago, sporting sam said:

Able Kane 2nd @ 14/1

proves nothing but he finished ahead of Raimero who was strongly fancied to follow up in most quarters.

An example of traverse effect in physics and free energy from the draw.

A couple of nice winners at Worcester but nothing spectacular.

Well done for the place result.  I don't know if you know but Horseracebase has excellent statistics regarding the effect of the "draw" in all races.  You can even get stats on the positioning of the stalls as well.  The downside is that the minimum sub per month is £25.  However, there are tons of stats available including big race trends and the fee is well worth the money for people who bet larger sums of money than I do.  Just a thought

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21 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well done for the place result.  I don't know if you know but Horseracebase has excellent statistics regarding the effect of the "draw" in all races.  You can even get stats on the positioning of the stalls as well.  The downside is that the minimum sub per month is £25.  However, there are tons of stats available including big race trends and the fee is well worth the money for people who bet larger sums of money than I do.  Just a thought

Appreciated.

I've done lots of stats and researched into the effects of the draw and the weights. It takes a lot of patience and hopefully I’ll demonstrate what I mean in time. Certainly my selections don’t scream patience! If I can slow down a bit I’ll get there quicker. 

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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

No luck so far.  I got put off a Paul Mulrenan winner in the 2.30 at Donny because of an RP write up "Be Proud 3lb higher than for latest success, but is 0-43 over 6f-plus and has never backed up a win"  Won at 7/2 by half a length.

I have posted up another L15 and Acca for 2 pts on the daily with a possible return of 472.22.

Never had so much fun.  Total points = 5 so far.

@sporting sam is welcome to the Racing League meeting at Yarmouth these are usually bookie benefit meetings.  He is going to need all his physics mastery to get winners here, but very good luck to him and @yossa6133 if he follows him in .

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Two winners in the second L15 and unlucky not to get a third.  Only 3.15 returned so a loss of 1.85 is not disastrous.  MTD is +11.64 & YTD  +30.18

L15's MTD - 12.26 YTD is +95.24

I enjoyed my racing today just looking through the races to see which of my favourite jockeys and other top jockeys and apprentices looked to have winning rides.  I know it is the horse that has to win the race but the owners want the top jockeys to be on their horse when it has a winning chance.  I also realise that for this flat season, only Ryan Moore has broken through the 20 + percentage of wins so that's a reminder to scrub through any runners whose price is less than 3/1 (should really be more like 5/1 to make a profit but I do like to have a bet and always hope that I will get a better price with Betfred if the selection drifts).

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