Royal Ascot Day 4 - Friday June 23rd

[The Brigadier]

Ascot 2.30

Eighteen speedy two year old fillies line up for the Albany Stakes. The Crisford’s Carla’s Way looked good at Doncaster on her debut and is on the short list along with Roger Varian’s Jabaara a 3/4L winner at Newmarket on her debut but my fancy is Michael O’Callaghan’s Navassa Island who ran a remarkable race on her debut when flashing home to finish runner up in a Group 3 at Naas won by Porta Fortuna who re-opposes here. I confidently expect her to turn the tables and looks good each way value.

 

NAVASSA ISLAND 1 point each way 15/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.05

Little Big Bear will be very popular here having bounced back to form in the Sandy Lane at Haydock and he will be very hard to beat. Sakheer drips back sprinting after not staying the mile in the 2000 guineas and looks a threat along with Lezoo who herself failed to stay in the first fillies classic. I’ll stick with Little Big Bear to score for Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore.

 

LITTLE BIG BEAR 2 points win @ 5/4 Skybet

 

Ascot 3.40

Another competitive handicap, this time over 1M 4F with the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap. The most interesting runner is the Charlie Appleby trained Al Nafir who could be well treated having not been seen for 259 days. The Varian runner Nagano has been off for 664 days but wouldn’t be out of this whilst Live Your Dream looks another with claims. Another tough call but the vibes are right for Al Nafir so he’ll do for me.

 

AL NAFIR 1 point each way 9/2 bet365 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 4.20

In the absence of Godolphin’s Mawj who was an eleventh hour absentee It’s very hard to oppose Dermot Weld’s top three year old filly Tahiyra who followed up a credible second to Mawj in the 1000 Guineas with an authoritative victory in the Irish version from Mediate and Comhra. Mammas Girl and Remarquee were well behind her in the 1000 Guineas and the biggest threat to the favourite may come from the Gosden’s Queen For You who can reverse York form with Sounds Of Heaven but she is still rated some 18lb inferior to Tahiyra and this really is hers to lose.

Mediate has been beaten three times by Tahiyra and can also hit the frame again.

 

TAHIYRA 3 1/2 points win 4/7 bet365

 

Ascot 5.00

A wide open handicap for three year old fillies spread across the course over a mile. Coppice was touted as a 1000 Guineas horse in the spring for the Gosden’s before blotting his copybook in the Nell Gwyn. She’s bounced back to form since in a weak race at Newcastle and is one for the short list.

Aiden O’Brien’s Jackie Oh ran well in the Irish 1000 last time and can also run well whilst Orchid Bloom and Copy Artist are two at bigger odds that could run well.

A tough call but I’ll stick with Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore to strike with Jacki Oh in a race where the fancied horses usually run well.

 

JACKIE OH 1 point each way @ 7/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234567

 

Ascot 5.35

Only six go to post for the King Edward VII stakes which looks likely to go to the Roger Varian trained King Of Steel who ran a remarkable race in the Derby when beating all bar the winner Auguste Rodin. Officially 7lb better than these and holding the second favourite Arrest, Artistic Star and Dubai Mile on Epsom form and is a confident selection.

 

KING OF STEEL 2 points win @ 11-10 William Hill

 

Ascot 6.10

A minefield of a race with 29 three year olds hurtling down the track. The one for early money has been George Boughey’s Conquistador who we haven’t seen for 90 days and win or lose looks poor value to me at his current odds of around 6/1. The 5F listed contest at York at the Dante meeting may be the best form guide here with seven of them running there. Pillow Talk beat all bar the winner Great State and her subsequent defeat in France can be put down to her not staying the 6th furlong or the race coming too soon. She may be the value bet now back at 5F.

 

PILLOW TALK 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

The 4th day of Royal Ascot sees the running of the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes. This handicap is open to 3-year-olds and up and is run over 1 mile, 3 furlongs and 211 yards. The off time is 15.40.

There is a field of 22. Some bookmakers are offering 5 places which makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

The stand-out stat is that no horse in stalls 1 to 11 has won, from 78 attempts.

All the winners have won over the distance before. There have been 59 horses that had not won over the distance and they all lost.

The ideal weight is 8st 12lbs to 9st 4lbs with 7 wins from 78 runs and a profit of 45 points at Betfair Starting Price. The remainder have just 2 wins from 77 runs with a loss of 67 points.

 

4 horses match these criteria.

OMNISCIENT 18/1

STAY WELL 33/1

MORACANA 25/1

PRYDWEN 25/1

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers offering 5 places.