Women's World Cup 2023

[Torque]

18 hours ago, harry_rag said:

If she doesn't score tomorrow it's probably dead in the water, 1 would keep it ticking over and 2 would make it look a great bet. Could do with Japan exiting next round without any further goals added by their player.

Looking like a great bet @harry_rag I'm glad I followed now, albeit at 100 rather than 150.

[harry_rag]

6 minutes ago, Torque said:

Looking like a great bet @harry_rag I'm glad I followed now, albeit at 100 rather than 150.

Yeah, I'd say it was a shame that Diani scored her 4th goal but for the fact that it was a header and landed the 11/1! 

[Torque]

The quarters are now set after France strolled past Morocco and Colombia got the better of Jamaica. From my point of view it was good to see Colombia make it through and I reckon they can give England a game in the next round. The way France performed is slightly ominous though as they represent my biggest liability right now.

As the teams get whittled down the margins are getting tighter and so I'm only adding one more bet to my outrights and that's England. They've drifted slightly - most likely because of France's result - and as much as I think Colombia can challenge them you'd still expect the Lionesses to make it through.

15pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 3.94 Betfair Exchange

[Torque]

I was keeping my powder dry until after the quarters get started, but England have drifted quite a bit on the exchanges and I can't see an obvious reason why so I'm putting some more on them.

40pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 4.23

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

I was keeping my powder dry until after the quarters get started, but England have drifted quite a bit on the exchanges and I can't see an obvious reason why so I'm putting some more on them.

40pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 4.23

What's your overall position now in terms of teams you have/haven't got onside? I'm assuming you'd had some bets prior to starting to post them and I know you tend to play these tournaments in this way. I'm just sticking with my antepost bets on France, Sweden and Netherlands so far.

[harry_rag]

Quarter finals thoughts, Friday's first.

Spain (6) v Netherlands (9) - I'll just play the draw in this one and root for the Dutch to get through for my antepost bet. Can't disagree with Spain being favoured as they have the better record against top 20/10 opposition. Spain are 4-5-2 v top 10 and Netherlands are 2-6-5 which is encouraging from the draw perspective.

Japan (11) v Sweden (3) - Japan big favourites here which places a lot of weight (too much, in my opinion) on what we've seen in this tournament. Sweden have the better form against top 20 and top 10 opponents. Japan are 8-5-12 against top 20 but that's 2-1-9 v European opponents. They're 1-8 against teams in the top 6, the 1 being their 4-0 victory over Spain. Not sure how to play this yet given my outright position on draws and Sweden but I think there's value in siding with Sweden one way or another.

 

[harry_rag]

Australia (10) v France (5) - Can't argue much with the prices here with France as favourites, though Australia have to be respected given home advantage and their form. France's record better against top 10/20 opposition, they're 6-1-5 v top 10 and all bar one of their defeats are against the top 3, the exception being a 1-0 friendly defeat against Australia last month. Those are their only losses in their last 44 games. I'll just take the routine draw bet on this one and hope that France progress from an antepost perspective.

England (4) v Colombia (25) - After the Nigeria game it's a case of once bitten when it comes to predicting an easy win for England over lower ranked opponents. They're 14-3-0 v teams ranked 11-30 while Colombia are 2-1-7 v top 20 and 1-0-6 v top 10 (the 1 being their victory over Germany). I'd expect England to progress but will settle for covering the draw and seeing what happens.

[Torque]

16 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

What's your overall position now in terms of teams you have/haven't got onside? I'm assuming you'd had some bets prior to starting to post them and I know you tend to play these tournaments in this way. I'm just sticking with my antepost bets on France, Spain and Netherlands so far.

Only bet I had before posting on here was the same as you -  a bet on the USA at a boosted price, which based on how they performed needed to be boosted an awful lot more than it actually was to make it worthwhile.

Right now I've got England, Spain and Colombia onside and I'm losing various amounts on the others. As previously mentioned the biggest liability is France and they're also the team that bother me the most. I see parallels with Argentina on the Men's side after their insipid start.

[harry_rag]

 6 of the 8 between us then; I meant Sweden rather than Spain for my trio.

[harry_rag]

20 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Japan (11) v Sweden (3) - Japan big favourites here which places a lot of weight (too much, in my opinion) on what we've seen in this tournament. Sweden have the better form against top 20 and top 10 opponents. Japan are 8-5-12 against top 20 but that's 2-1-9 v European opponents. They're 1-8 against teams in the top 6, the 1 being their 4-0 victory over Spain. Not sure how to play this yet given my outright position on draws and Sweden but I think there's value in siding with Sweden one way or another.

I'd take the 13/5 Sweden win or 29/20 to qualify with PP now if you fancy Sweden at all as they look like prices that aren't going to last. It looks like my maximum stake with them now is nil for any football bet! 

You'll forgive me if the phrase "pathetic and spineless excuse for a bookmaker" is springing to mind at present. Looks like I might still get the odd small bet on other sports (tried racing and rugby league) but the account is close to being useless now.

Just settled for backing the draw on the exchange in all 4 games. Hopefully get the "4 or more games going to extra time" bet over the line with these games.

[Torque]

Good call on Sweden @harry_rag

So it's down to the last six with two matches to go to determine the last four. I've had some more on England as they've drifted slightly owing to Spain making it through and also a little more on Spain, who played well against the Netherlands despite the result making it look like they barely scraped through.

10pts Spain to win Women's World Cup @ 3.00 Victor

10pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 4.33 Betfair Exchange

[harry_rag]

9 minutes ago, Torque said:

Good call on Sweden @harry_rag

Cheers, won on the draw in the earlier game and notched up the 3rd of 4 needed for an antepost return. Would have preferred penalties as well and/or the Netherlands to progress.

Lost on the draw in the later game but did get matched on Sweden at 3.65 and glad to see them go through. Would very much welcome a Sweden v France final. Won on Ilestedt to score at 24/1 which takes the sting out of her moving onto 4 goals as an unlikely Golden Boot candidate. (Her "goal rush plus" was only 1 to buy with SPIN which equates to exactly 24/1 if she scored once; only on for a quid so don't feel too bad about the aftertime! She was 12s best with the fixed odds firms.)

Have played Diani and Renard headed goals at 12/1 each with Betway; worth a small bet even allowing for the better quality of opponent they face. Renard may come into play more in a tighter game where set pieces may play more of a part. (France didn't gain a single corner against Morocco and didn't really need one given they joy they got through open play.)

[harry_rag]

Oh well, farewell to France and Le Sommer; so close but so far. Draw bet lands as does the >3.5 games going to ET. The more draws/shootouts the merrier from here on in.

Australia through for you @Torque hopefully it's England up next for them.

[Torque]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Oh well, farewell to France and Le Sommer; so close but so far. Draw bet lands as does the >3.5 games going to ET. The more draws/shootouts the merrier from here on in.

Australia through for you @Torque hopefully it's England up next for them.

That was bittersweet. On the one hand I've lost my biggest liability, but on the other I'd got on Le Sommer thanks to you and it was looking good. 

[Torque]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Oh well, farewell to France and Le Sommer; so close but so far. Draw bet lands as does the >3.5 games going to ET. The more draws/shootouts the merrier from here on in.

Australia through for you @Torque hopefully it's England up next for them.

What was your shootout bet again @harry_rag

[harry_rag]

On 7/16/2023 at 1:22 PM, harry_rag said:

Sky Bet have prices for games going to extra time and penalties. I took what I could get on >3.5 going to ET at evens and 6+ at 13/2 (both have been trimmed). Always worth considering backing the draw in the knockout rounds of International tournaments, there were 3 draws in the Euros from just 7 games. With 16 here I think it's easily odds on that we get 4 or more. I'm less keen on the "pens" prices but have had small bets on 4-5 at 10/1 and 6+ at 100/1.

 

On 8/3/2023 at 4:27 PM, harry_rag said:

Most of those prices have drifted out to slightly better than the "opening show", no doubt due to the number of "minnows" making it through. I still think there's some value in them though so I've topped up the original stakes given the extent to which I was limited. On now at 11/10, 15/2, 11/1 and 100/1 respectively.

@Torque As above antepost and then topped up at better odds ahead of the round of 16.

[harry_rag]

Just had a look at the semis before I saw the actual prices. Both look well off to me. I'd favour Sweden by a sliver over Spain, call it a coin toss for what it's worth. Market hugely favouring Spain (more than it did Japan, who beat Spain convincingly, ahead of their game against the Swedes). Not as drastic in the other game but while I agree that England deserve to be favourites I think that Australia are substantially underrated. Not sure how to play it given that the draw is an appealing bet in both ties, all I'll say is that I feel both favourites are considerably overrated on all relevant evidence,

[harry_rag]

18 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Not sure how to play it given that the draw is an appealing bet in both ties

Worth taking the 12/5 the draw in both ties with 365 I think, especially the England game where it's quite a standout,

[Torque]

I'm going the other way @harry_rag - so at least that guarantees one of us will be happy. I can't see past Spain or England now and from my perspective I hope that's the final. I'm not sure Australia are underrated either - if anything, they're overrated bearing in mind the home factor. Sweden might well get the better of Spain, but if they do most likely it'll be because of Spain's profligacy as they've created plenty in this tournament without regularly troubling the net. With all that in mind I'm topping up on Spain and England and most likely these will be my final bets of the tournament.

10pts Spain to win Women's World Cup @ 2.94 Betfair Exchange

15pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 3.00 365

Edited August 12, 2023 by Torque

[Torque]

It looks like plenty of money is coming in for Australia with the result that England's price is being pushed out. I can't really see a reason for that so I'm playing England again.

25pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 3.11 Betfair Exchange

[harry_rag]

12 minutes ago, Torque said:

It looks like plenty of money is coming in for Australia with the result that England's price is being pushed out. I can't really see a reason for that so I'm playing England again.

I can. As I already said, the prices were wrong so there's been a degree of correction. It's just the market providing proof of my wisdom! 

I guess we're not going to agree on this one and the game won't really settle the argument either way, regardless of the result or the performances. I just had a look back at each team's last 15 games, England are 9-5-1 and 30-9 in terms of goals for/against. All bar one of those games were against teams with a lower ranking (not a huge surprise when England are 4th) by an average of 15 places.

Australia are 12-1-2 and 35-8. 6 of those games were against teams ranked higher than them and they won 5 and beat France on pens in the other. Taking everything into account I'd maintain my view that England merit being favourites but not to the extent suggested by the prices. I'm clearly setting myself up here for a 6-0 rout in favour of the lionesses!

One other observation I'd make, almost every time you post an update on your bets I have a look at the market and the prices are bigger than those you've taken (I'd say around 9 times out of 10 with the other being about the same price). Might be worth waiting a bit longer or asking for a slightly better price as it looks like you're identifying drifts but not quite taking the full advantage. I appreciate you're extremely experienced in betting this way and it could be a blip but I thought I'd mention it as it's been a theme throughout this thread.

[Torque]

20 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I can. As I already said, the prices were wrong so there's been a degree of correction. It's just the market providing proof of my wisdom! 

I guess we're not going to agree on this one and the game won't really settle the argument either way, regardless of the result or the performances. I just had a look back at each team's last 15 games, England are 9-5-1 and 30-9 in terms of goals for/against. All bar one of those games were against teams with a lower ranking (not a huge surprise when England are 4th) by an average of 15 places.

Australia are 12-1-2 and 35-8. 6 of those games were against teams ranked higher than them and they won 5 and beat France on pens in the other. Taking everything into account I'd maintain my view that England merit being favourites but not to the extent suggested by the prices. I'm clearly setting myself up here for a 6-0 rout in favour of the lionesses!

One other observation I'd make, almost every time you post an update on your bets I have a look at the market and the prices are bigger than those you've taken (I'd say around 9 times out of 10 with the other being about the same price). Might be worth waiting a bit longer or asking for a slightly better price as it looks like you're identifying drifts but not quite taking the full advantage. I appreciate you're extremely experienced in betting this way and it could be a blip but I thought I'd mention it as it's been a theme throughout this thread.

Always good to hear your thoughts @harry_rag and to get another perspective. It's entirely possible that your assertion about the prices was correct and actually it's that possibility that means I tend to spread risk if I can. As far as England's price is concerned, if it was wrong before and now it's right then I've mitigated some of the -EV by going in again. I tend to think of the approach as similar to dollar cost averaging - I might not always get a good price but if I get one more often than not then I should end up ahead.

Interesting you've noticed prices going up after I've posted. I've seen that once or twice but not to the degree you have. Not sure what's behind it but as far as requesting better prices goes I tend to take what I can see. I've requested higher prices plenty in the past but what sometimes happens is the price shortens and then you can't even get the original price.

[harry_rag]

Just now, Torque said:

Interesting you've noticed prices going up after I've posted. I've seen that once or twice but not to the degree you have. Not sure what's behind it but as far as requesting better prices goes I tend to take what I can see. I've requested higher prices plenty in the past but what sometimes happens is the price shortens and then you can't even get the original price.

Yeah too small a sample to draw a serious conclusion from and you've got more experience of playing these sort of markets, but it's been enough of a trend to at least mention. I'm something of a "hit and hope" merchant when it comes to exchange prices, I'm not adverse to sticking up some optimistic requests and seeing if I get matched. And with the goalscorer systems I sometimes have a specific target price and just ask for that. On today's evidence, not getting matched would have been as good as a win!

[harry_rag]

@Torque Any thoughts on the Golden Boot market? You've got an odds on favourite on 5 who's out of the competition, one player left in on 4 and a few on 3. If this was a top scorer market (with dead heats a possibility) I'd say laying at around 1.8 was a good bet as one player getting to 5 would be enough for a small profit. As it is, assists will be counted if goals are tied and Ilestedt on 4 hasn't got any yet. 

I'm not sure there's anything worth playing but I'd rather be laying an odds on shot who's out and have the rest of the remaining field on side all with 2 games left to play

[Torque]

15 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Yeah too small a sample to draw a serious conclusion from and you've got more experience of playing these sort of markets, but it's been enough of a trend to at least mention. I'm something of a "hit and hope" merchant when it comes to exchange prices, I'm not adverse to sticking up some optimistic requests and seeing if I get matched. And with the goalscorer systems I sometimes have a specific target price and just ask for that. On today's evidence, not getting matched would have been as good as a win!

I played around in that market a few years back and from memory I nearly always had to ask for a price as the markets were so illiquid. You seem to be doing well with that market at the moment and long may that continue.

[Torque]

5 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

@Torque Any thoughts on the Golden Boot market? You've got an odds on favourite on 5 who's out of the competition, one player left in on 4 and a few on 3. If this was a top scorer market (with dead heats a possibility) I'd say laying at around 1.8 was a good bet as one player getting to 5 would be enough for a small profit. As it is, assists will be counted if goals are tied and Ilestedt on 4 hasn't got any yet. 

I'm not sure there's anything worth playing but I'd rather be laying an odds on shot who's out and have the rest of the remaining field on side all with 2 games left to play

I like Ilestedt even though she's handicapped by a lack of assists. She'd be shorter if she was a striker - obviously - but she's such a threat from corners and free-kicks that right now she's scoring like a striker. Other than that, I'm quite tempted by James. England need to make the final if she's going to have a chance, but a couple of goals from her in that match plus the assists she's already got and she could get top scorer.

[harry_rag]

23 hours ago, Torque said:

I like Ilestedt even though she's handicapped by a lack of assists. She'd be shorter if she was a striker - obviously - but she's such a threat from corners and free-kicks that right now she's scoring like a striker.

SPIN had her at 250/1 for a brace tomorrow which I think was way to big. 150/1 now might still not be the worst 3 figure price you'll see. She was 12/1 best anytime but it's 9s now on Oddschecker. SPIN have her at 2 to buy on their Goal Rush Plus market which is the same as 12.5 anytime but with a bonus if she did score more than once.

Miyazawa remains backable for the GB at 4/5 but is easy to lay at 1.6 so there's definitely value to be had on one side or the other of that argument! 

23 hours ago, Torque said:

I'm quite tempted by James. England need to make the final if she's going to have a chance, but a couple of goals from her in that match plus the assists she's already got and she could get top scorer.

Would she have a better chance in the 3rd place game with the final being more likely to be tight and cagey? I suppose it's a case of keeping an eye on her price in the GB market relative to what you think she might be to score a brace in her (potential) remaining game, depending on what happens in the semis!

[Torque]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

SPIN had her at 250/1 for a brace tomorrow which I think was way to big. 150/1 now might still not be the worst 3 figure price you'll see. She was 12/1 best anytime but it's 9s now on Oddschecker. SPIN have her at 2 to buy on their Goal Rush Plus market which is the same as 12.5 anytime but with a bonus if she did score more than once.

Miyazawa remains backable for the GB at 4/5 but is easy to lay at 1.6 so there's definitely value to be had on one side or the other of that argument! 

Would she have a better chance in the 3rd place game with the final being more likely to be tight and cagey? I suppose it's a case of keeping an eye on her price in the GB market relative to what you think she might be to score a brace in her (potential) remaining game, depending on what happens in the semis!

Miyazawa at 1.80 is probably some value with the idea of possession being nine tenths of the law in mind. Also it's not hard to imagine that she's not being considered as much as she should be because Japan are out of the tournament and other players are being bet on in the expectation that she's overtaken in the remaining games.

About James, I hadn't even considered the third place match so that makes her even more attractive because she's guaranteed to play again - unless she's injured or not picked of course. As you suggest, essentially it comes down to what you think the chances and therefore the odds should be about her scoring two in either the final or third place match.

[harry_rag]

6 minutes ago, Torque said:

About James, I hadn't even considered the third place match so that makes her even more attractive because she's guaranteed to play again - unless she's injured or not picked of course. As you suggest, essentially it comes down to what you think the chances and therefore the odds should be about her scoring two in either the final or third place match.

Every player is available at 22/1 or bigger for a brace in the semi final against Australia (the lowest ranked team remaining) so the next game will be against a better opponent by that metric. At around 25 (looking at the exchange) I'd say she's no bet, especially if you factor in the coach possibly deciding not to change a winning team. I'd probably want 40 or more, especially if the one game was the final.

I suppose you could speculate wildly about a scenario where the game was won, she'd scored once and England earned a penalty that she was allowed to take!  I suspect the winner will either be the current leader or someone who plays in both of their team's remaining games.

[Torque]

Having given it some thought @harry_rag I think you're right about James. Probably not worth it all things considered. I have decided I want to go against Miyazawa though and I'm going to do it by backing three players on the exchanges and staked in such a way to give the same return should any of these players win and which takes into account their varying odds. 

Firstly as already discussed I like Ilestedt's chances and I've backed her at 9.45. It's unlikely she'll make any assists so in effect this is a bet on her scoring twice in the two games she has left. After that I'm taking a couple of punts in the form of Russo and Raso who I've backed at 41.65 and 65 respectively.

Russo has two goals and no assists so she'll need at least three goals to have a chance, but now she's found her scoring boots I don't think that's beyond her if England play well. Raso is an interesting one as she hasn't had a prolific international career but finds herself on three goals so far at this tournament. All the focus is on Kerr now as she's due to start and so perhaps not surprisingly the expectation is that any goals the Maltildas get will be scored by her but you often see a player that gets on a scoring run keep that run going and so I'm having a small stake on her.