Racing Chat -Sunday 7th May

[The Brigadier]

It’s the fairer sex’s day at Newmarket today with their first classic the 1000 Guineas the feature race and one of four races covered by ITV today where the ground is currently good but with plenty of showers forecast could easily turn on the soft side. They also treat us to a handicap from both Salisbury and Hamilton where they both race on a good to soft terrain. Here’s my thoughts on the day’s six terrestrial television races.

Newmarket 13:50

We kick off today with a highly competitive nineteen runner 14F class 2 handicap. The weights are headed by William Haggas’s Roberto Escobar but with a few of the Haggas runners disappointing recently can safely be overlooked.

Last year’s winner Cemhaan, trained by George Baker is back to defend his title having had his wind tinkered with since we last saw him some 183 days ago. He’s 9lb higher than last year when he had had a run so I’ll be looking elsewhere today. Jamie Osborne’s Duty Of Care has been running well this year on the all weather and as a half brother to the smart Expert Eye shouldn’t mind reverting to the turf. A first time tongue tie is a bit concerning but can still run well.

Another who has been running well on synthetic surfaces this year is Alan King’s HMS President who’ actually finished runner up on 6 of his last 7 starts. He could be a player here.

A watchful eye must be kept on the Tony Martin challenger Firstman who has been in form at Dundalk this winter. A rare runner here for the shrewd Irish handler and must be watched in the market.

A wide open race with no standout bets with maybe a small each way wager on HMS President with Rossa Ryan on board is the way to go.

HMS PRESIDENT 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

Hamilton 14:05

Next up is a 1M 5F class 3 0-95 handicap which has attracted ten runners. Easily the most interesting runner here is the Roger Varian trained Postileo who we haven’t seen for 562 days since winning at Doncaster. Gelded since and now a pound higher he should run well as one of two that Newmarket trainer Varian has brought up to Scotland for today’s meeting.

Keith Dagleish’s Good Show was a big flop on his re-appearance at Musselburgh four weeks ago and can do better surely whilst Zimmerman ran a good race on his re-appearance at Thirsk when a seemingly unfancied 16/1 chance in running Chillingham to a couple of lengths. Only a pound higher now he can be thereabouts especially with this two furlong trip likely to much more in his favour and he’s the tentative pick in a race that is dominated by the fitness of Postileo who may just be undone after a long layoff by the race fitness of Tim Easterby’s four year old who will enjoy any cut in the ground.

ZIMMERMAN 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5 123

Newmarket 14:25

Ten three year old staying fillies line up for the listed 10F Pretty Polly Stakes which is traditionally used as a stepping stone to the Epsom Oaks. Only four of the ten hold the Oaks entry at this stage mind.

John and Thady Gosden saddle a brace of runners here in Running Lion who’s run up a hat trick on synthetic surfaces this winter and Tarjamah, a Wolverhampton winner in December. Preference would be for the former who looks battle hardened and can go close.

There’s plenty of unexposed types lurking here though including the Andrew Balding trained Floating Spirit who’s won both starts this year on all weather surfaces and has the assistance of Ryan Moore today. She has no fancy entries going forward mind.

Charlie Appleby saddles a pair of promising fillies in Queen Of Fairies who won on her debut at Southwell last December and is the pick of William Buick over Joyful Act, a winner at Newcastle last month and James Doyle’s mount.

Ralph Beckett’s Trust The Stars is one of the quartet that hold an Oaks entry and shouldn’t be dismissed either for a trainer that does so well with his classic generation fillies.

A tough race where the market will be very informative. Without those clues I’ll take Charlie Appleby’s Queen Of Fairies, a Cracksman filly who may improve for getting on to the turf.

QUEEN OF FAIRIES 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365

Salisbury 14:40

Nine runners have declared for this 1M 6F class 3 0-95 handicap. John and Thady Gosden have the likely favourite here in Mr Inspiration who is making is turf debut having won two of his five starts so far on synthetic surfaces. A 4lb rise for his latest win which came at Lingfield in an apprentice handicap on All-Weather Championships day looks fair enough and if he can take to the turf has solid claims.

Any more rain at the Wiltshire track will suit Richard Hannon’s top weight Sir Rumi, owned by Amo Racing and ridden by Pat Dobbs who was last seen winning the prestigious Great Metropolitan Handicap at Epsom 12 days ago.

Bottom weight Whimsy shouldn’t be dismissed as he is two from two here and having been running on the all weather should appreciate the return to turf although he does have to prove his stamina.

I’ll stick with Sir Rumi who did it in good style at Epsom with any more rain playing into his hands.

SIR RUMI 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor

Newmarket 15:00

Nine fillies or mares go to post for the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes. The best in at the weights is Ralph Beckett’s Prosperous Voyage who was a Group one winner of the Falmouth Stakes on the July course last Summer and has the assistance for the first time of Frankie Dettori. If straight enough she should run well.

Charlie Appleby’s globe trotting With The Moonlight who was last seen when runner up at Keeneland in a Grade one in April has to carry a 3lb penalty for her victories in Dubai in February. A winner of the Pretty Polly on this card last year she should be competitive although any easing of the ground would be against her.

Master French trainer Andre Fabre sends over a brace of fillies with the pick of them being the Mickael Barzalona ridden Life In Motion who would be suited by any rain. She comes here fit having won at Longchamp 17 days ago in listed company and the fact that Fabre sends her over should be heeded. He also saddles Hidden Dimples with Ryan Moore in the saddle but she is officially rated a 7lb inferior horse to her stablemate.

Pam Sly brings her very easy listed winner from Doncaster’s opening turf meeting Astral Beau to the races but she would need very soft ground for her to come into the equation. Add in the two Shadwell fillies Shaara trained by the Gosden’s and Al Husn from the Roger Varian camp and you have the makings of a very informative contest.

Backing Andre Fabre runners on our shores over the years has been a profitable exercise and I’ll take the race fit Life In Motion who races in the royal blue Godolphin colours to take this.

LIFE IN MOTION 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill

Newmarket 15:40

A bumper field of twenty three year old fillies line up for the first classic of the season for the fillies in the 1000 Guineas run over the straight mile of the Rowley Mile course. We have a warm favourite here in last years top rated juvenile Tahiyra. Trained by the wily Dermot Weld she looked very special when easily dispatching of today’s second favourite Mediate at The Curragh in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes in September. She looked very useful that day and can take this before a fruitful season as she moves up in trip (her half sister Tarnawa stayed well). Any more rain would help her chances as she has only run on a rain softened surface.

Aidan O’Brien saddles Mediate who went on from her defeat at the hands of Tahiyra to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland. She should run well but I can’t see any reason why she should reverse the form with Dermot Weld’s filly.

Dream Of Love looks the pick of the two Charlie Appleby runners having come from some way back to chase home Saeed bin Suroor’s Mawj in Dubai in January on soft ground and as that was only her third ever run should have plenty of improvement to come.

Frankie Dettori gets his leg over Ralph Beckett’s Lezoo, who was last seen beating Mediate by 3/4L in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes here last September. She’s yet to race on an easy surface however and beyond 6F so has stamina to prove.

Richard Hannon’s Mammas Girl ran out a comfortable winner of the main trial, the Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7F of this track 18 days ago with three of these behind her. A draw of 20 of 20 may not be ideal however.

The other recognised 1000 trial, the Fred Darling at Newbury was won by Ralph Beckett’s Remarquee by a neck from Hugo Palmer’s Stenton Glider (Embrace back in 4th)and will appreciate any ease in the ground. Whether that form is good enough is debatable.

If Tahiyra is the same horse she was as a two year old with any rain coming in her favour and her draw of 15 hopefully not hindering her then she could outclass these and is a confident selection even if her trainer Dermot Weld could be in better form.

TAHIYRA 3 points win @ 5/2 BetVictor

all odds accurate at time of writing

[richard-westwood]

1000 guineas 

Tahiyra    9.2 3.0 

Meditate    8.8 9.2 

Mawj     8.6 

Bookies seems to have this one priced up right so I'll try 10pt wins top 2 and try and squeeze a bit of profit out