Racing Chat - Saturday 11th February

[The Brigadier]

 

The ITV cameras are at Newbury and Warwick today for their trials days and with little rain around both tracks are reporting good ground, in fact Newbury and their Super Saturday have been unable to water this week so it may even ride a bit faster than good with the frost covers been down all week. Here’s my thoughts on the eight races :-

Warwick 1.30
Just the five have declared for today’s opener. A 2M 4F class 2 handicap chase with top weight Stolen Silver the form horse. Sam Thomas’s eight year old ran a stormer in a better race than this on New Years Day at Cheltenham when beating all bar Midnight River in a 2M 4 1/2F premier handicap. A reproduction of that effort should see him hard to beat despite a 4lb rise in the weights. His regular partner Sam Twiston-Davies is needed at Newbury so Adam Wedge comes in for a rare ride for Thomas. Messire Des Obeaux was rather disappointing last time when a fancy of mine although he had a valid excuse as that was his first start for 354 days. It would be no shock were he to run a fair bit better here for trainer Alan King. Galahad Quest is getting plenty of weight from Stolen Silver but it’s been a while since he won and the handicapper may just have him still. Donald McCain’s Mackenberg was foiled in his attempt to secure a hat trick when only 5th of 11 at Doncaster a fortnight ago and this can go to Stolen Silver.

STOLEN SILVER 2 points win @ 6/4 bet365

Newbury 1.50
A field of nine staying hurdlers assemble for this 3M class 3 handicap hurdle which has an open look about it. Paul Nicholls saddles a brace of runners in Barbados Buck’s ridden by Harry Cobden and Flemenstide with Bryony Frost in the saddle. The preferred of the pair is the former who showed signs on his two starts this season that his turn is near whilst Flemenstide has to put a poor re-appearance effort behind him at Chepstow around Christmas time. You can feasibly make a case for all nine of these including Dan Skelton’s West To The Bridge who will be ridden by Bridget Andrews with her partner Harry Skelton needed at Warwick and even Regarding Ruth, currently the rank outsider of the field on the comeback trail having been missing for 645 days for Lucy Wadham and ridden today by a 10lb conditional jockey. A tough race with marginal preference for Barbados Buck’s.

BARBADOS BUCKS 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor

Warwick 2.05
Only six face the starter for this 2M 5F listed mares hurdle. Officially 6lb and upwards clear on official ratings is the Harry Fry trained Love Envoi who’s only been beaten once in her career nine starts including the mare’s novices’ hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last year. She loves to get her toe in and this will be the soundest surface she’s ever raced on. It would not be a shock if she was pulled out on the day due to the ground and at the respective odds I’ve got to oppose her despite her looking the obvious one. She’s heading for the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham in a months time which looks a cracker with the possibility of Honeysuckle and the Nicky Henderson pair of Epatante and Marie’s Rock in opposition. Henderson saddles his progressive mare Theatre Glory today and as she handles good ground so well she maybe worth a small interest to upset the favourite here. 2021 winner Molly Ollys Wishes for the Skeltons and Irish challenger Skyace don’t have much to find on official ratings and are two other possibles. Love Envoi will probably take this but I can’t back her on good ground so it’s Theatre Glory for me.

THEATRE GLORY 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor

Newbury 2.25
A small but select field of seven have declared for this 2M 7 1/2F grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase, a trial for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Best in at today’s weights is the Paul Nicholls trained Hitman who still has questions to answer at this trip and it transpired he burst a blood vessel when pulling up in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. He can win but with those question marks over him I’ll be looking elsewhere for the winner. Last year’s victor Eldorado Allen has to shoulder a 6lb penalty here but has claims for the Joe Tizzard team whilst the Anthony Honeyball trained Sam Brown is much better on softer ground. It’s hard to fancy Kalashnikov and Zanza (despite his excellent record of 4 wins from 5 starts here) at these weights and the one I like is the Venetia William’s trained Fanion D’Estruval who’s sporting first time cheek pieces today. The eight year likes this track having won twice from four starts here and wasn’t disgraced under a welter weight when third in a decent renewal of the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day under Lucy Turner. Charlie Deutsch takes over here and should be thereabouts.

FANION D’ESTRUVAL 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365

Warwick 2.40
This four runner grade 2 Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase looks likely to go to Nicky Henderson’s smart novice Jonbon. Owned by JP McManus and carrying a 5lb penalty he’s won 7 of his career 8 starts with his only defeat coming when runner up in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle behind stable mate Constitution Hill. He’s taken well to fencing having won impressively over course and distance and at Sandown in the grade one Henry VIII Novices’ Chase. This is his prep race for the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham in a months time and bar a fall he should be winning this. Gary Moore’s Haddex Des Obeaux is officially 8lb behind him and was very impressive when winning in handicap company over course and distance last month. He can chase the favourite home who is priced at prohibitive odds making this just a watching race.

Newbury 3.00
Five face the starter in this 2M 92 yard grade 2 Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase. We have a warm favourite here in Paul Nicholls’ Greaneteen who despite carrying a 6lb penalty today is still 15lb and upwards better than his four rivals. Good ground suits and he should outclass these en route to another tilt at the Champion Chase next month at Cheltenham ground permitting. An impressive winner on his re-appearance in the Haldon Cup at Exeter last November he wasn’t disgraced when runner up in the Tingle Creek at Sandown going down by 9L to the smart Edwardstone. Last year’s winner Funambule Sivola is penalised for that win and is out of form so far this season and is easily dismissed whilst Elixir De Nutz and Malystic although recent winners are stepping up in class today. A no bet race with Greaneteen likely to be at skinny odds. For those looking for a bet it maybe worth doubling up the two skinny ones in Greaneteen and Jonbon.

GREANETEEN & JONBON 2 points win double 4/9 & 2/9 Betfred

Newbury 3.35
Despite the fact that Newbury have been unable to water this week and the worry that we could end up with a sub standard number of runners for this 2M 69 yard Betfair Handicap Hurdle the field has stood up well with a decent field of 18 going to post. The weights are headed by last year’s winner Glory And Fortune whom his trainer Tom Lacey was bigging up earlier in the week. He’s been chasing this season and is now 5lb higher than last year’s victory. At the top of the market we have the Irish raider in Emmett Mullins’ Filey Bay who’s won two handicaps within a week last November rising a stone in the process and has since been bought by JP McManus. One would presume he’s been trained for this and there’s plenty to like bar the price at around 10/3. Nicky Henderson saddle No Ordinary Joe, a winner at Kempton over Christmas and now 5lb higher, he’s also in the same ownership as the favourite Filey Bay and the Willie Mullins representative Icare Allen. Novices have a good record in the race winning 7 of the last 9 and it would be no shock if Rubaud, one of two Paul Nicholls runners, along with Hacker Des Places, were to run well on his handicap debut although followers of his would of preferred to have seen a better run from the horse that beat him last time Rare Edition in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon on Thursday although he did scope badly afterwards. Down at the bottom of the weights another novice who could run well is the Nigel Twiston Davies trained Master Chewy who although still a maiden was set to win at Ascot in November when falling at the last. He’s bumped into a couple of decent sorts since and the race may well be run to suit. There’s several others with claims in this wide open handicap but with the ground in their favour and off of nice low marks I’ll take the novices Rubaud and Master Chewy each way with enhanced places to run big races on their handicap debuts.

RUBAUD 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
MASTER CHEWY 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

[richard-westwood]

Betfair hurdle 

Hacker de places  8.6  13.5 

Aucunrisque   8.4 18.5 

Rubaud     8.4  15/2 

No old Joe    8.0 

Very tricky race as this tends to go to a novicey up and coming type ....I think top 3 are ones to concentrate on ...aucunrisque is difficult to rate .. .he was fairly good over hurdles then switched to chasing where he's currently climbed to around rpr 150  ....now switches back to hurdles so gets allocated 138 ?...could be a potentially hcap blot ?....I'll try 10pt wins top 3 because some cracking  prices on betfair 

Edited February 10, 2023 by richard-westwood